Background: The potential role of non-invasive tests (NITs) for liver fibrosis for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction remains poorly known. Methods: Retrospective analysis of a NAFLD cohort ...from a single university hospital in Barcelona, Spain. Incidence rates and cumulative incidence for the overall cohort, as well as cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients were calculated. Logistic regression analyses were carried out to investigate risk factors of HCC. Results: From the entire cohort of 1040 patients, 996 patients (95.8%) were analyzed, in whom 35 cases of HCC were detected, of which 26 (72.4%) HCC incident cases were newly diagnosed during a median follow-up of 2.5 (1.9−3.6) years. Two-hundred and thirty-one (23.2%) were cirrhotic at baseline. With the exception of 2 (7.7%) cases of HCC, the rest were diagnosed in cirrhotic patients. Overall HCC cumulative incidence was 9.49 (95% CI 6.4−13.9) per 1000 person-years. The incidence rate for cirrhotic patients was 41.2 (95% CI 27.6−61.6) per 1000 person-years and 0.93 (95% CI 0.23−3.7) per 1000 person-years for patients without cirrhosis. Overall mortality was significantly higher amongst patients with HCC (4.4% vs. 30.8%, p < 0.001). In patients with available liver biopsy (n = 249, 25%), advanced fibrosis (F3−F4) was significantly associated with higher HCC incidence, but not steatosis, lobular inflammation, nor ballooning. In the overall cohort, FIB-4 ≥1.3 (HR 8.46, 95% CI 1.06−67.4, p = 0.044) and older age (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01−1.11, p = 0.025) were associated with increasing risk of HCC over time, whereas in cirrhotic patients predictors of HCC included decreasing values of albumin (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.13−0.87, p = 0.024), platelets (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.98−0.99, p = 0.001), and increasing values of liver stiffness (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00−1.06, p = 0.016). Conclusions: In a Spanish cohort of NAFLD patients, HCC was rare in non-cirrhotic patients. NITs might play a relevant role at predicting HCC.
Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a leading cause of cirrhosis in western countries. Insulin resistance (IR), type 2 diabetes (T2D), and the polymorphisms patatin-like phospholipase ...domain-containing 3 (PNPLA3) rs738409 and transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 (TM6SF2) rs58542926 are independent risk factors of NASH. Nevertheless, little is known about the interaction between IR and T2D with these polymorphisms in the pathogenesis of NASH and the development of advanced fibrosis. Thus, our study aimed to investigate this relationship. This is a cross-sectional study including NASH patients diagnosed by liver biopsy, at the Vall d’Hebron University Hospital. A total of 140 patients were included (93 T2D, 47 non-T2D). T2D (OR = 4.67; 95%CI 2.13−10.20; p < 0.001), PNPLA3 rs738409 and TM6SF2 rs58542926 polymorphisms (OR = 3.94; 95%CI 1.63−9.54; p = 0.002) were independently related with advanced liver fibrosis. T2D increased the risk of advance fibrosis on top of the two polymorphisms (OR = 14.69; 95%CI 3.03−77.35; p = 0.001 for PNPLA3 rs738409 and OR = 11.45; 95%CI 3.16−41.55; p < 0.001 for TM6SF2 rs58542926). In non-T2D patients, the IR (HOMA-IR ≥ 5.2, OR = 14.33; 95%CI 2.14−18.66; p = 0.014) increased the risk of advanced fibrosis when the polymorphisms were present (OR = 19.04; 95%CI 1.71−650.84; p = 0.042). The T2D and IR status increase the risk of advanced fibrosis in patients with NASH carrying the PNPLA3 rs738409 and/or TM6SF2 rs58542926 polymorphisms, respectively.
The natural history of compensated cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has not been completely characterized. The aim of the present study was to assess the incidence and risk ...factors of acute decompensation of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and extrahepatic cancers. This was a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study including 449 patients with compensated cirrhosis due to NAFLD. We calculated cumulative incidences and used competitive risk analysis to determine the risk factors associated with decompensation and cancer development. Over a median of 39 months of follow‐up, 124 patients (28%) presented acute decompensation. The most frequent decompensation was ascites (21%) followed by hepatic encephalopathy (15%), variceal bleeding (9%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (3%). Acute‐on‐chronic liver failure was diagnosed in 6% of patients during follow‐up. Liver function parameters and specifically an albumin level below 40 g/L were independently associated with an increased risk of decompensation. The presence of ischemic heart disease was independently associated with acute decompensation. Seventy‐eight patients (18%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma or extrahepatic cancers during follow‐up (51 and 27, respectively). Conclusion: Patients with compensated cirrhosis due to NAFLD are at high risk of severe liver complications, such as the development of acute decompensation, in a relative short follow‐up time. This population is at high risk of hepatic and extrahepatic cancers.
The analysis of a large contemporary cohort of 449 patients with compensated cirrhosis due to non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease shows a high frequency of acute decompensations (AD) and development of cancer during 39 months of follow‐up. Almost 28% of the cohort developed acute decompensation and 18% developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or extrahepatic cancer. Predictors of decompensation are mainly related to liver function and portal hypertension.
Treatment with non-selective beta-blockers (NSBBs) reduces the risk of ascites, which is the most common decompensating event in cirrhosis. This study aimed to assess the ability of a serum microRNA ...(miRNA) signature to predict ascites formation and the hemodynamic response to NSBBs in compensated cirrhosis.
Serum levels of miR-452-5p, miR-429, miR-885-5p, miR-181b-5p, and miR-122-5p were analyzed in patients with compensated cirrhosis (N = 105). Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) was measured at baseline, after intravenous propranolol, and 1 year after randomization to NSBBs (n = 52) or placebo (n = 53) (PREDESCI trial). miRNAs were analyzed at baseline and at 1 year.
Nineteen patients (18%) developed ascites, of whom 17 developed ascites after 1 year. miR-181b-5p levels at 1 year, but not at baseline, were higher in patients that developed ascites. The AUC of miR-181b-5p at 1 year to predict ascites was 0.7 (95% CI 0.59–0.78). miR-429 levels were lower at baseline in acute HVPG responders to NSBBs (AUC 0.65; 95% CI, 0.53–0.76), but levels at baseline and at 1 year were not associated with the HVPG response to NSBBs at 1 year.
Serum miR-181b-5p is a promising non-invasive biomarker to identify patients with compensated cirrhosis at risk of ascites development.
Ascites marks the transition from the compensated to decompensated stage in cirrhosis and indicates a worsening in prognosis. There are currently no easily accessible tools to identify patients with compensated cirrhosis at risk of developing ascites. We evaluated the levels of novel molecules termed microRNAs in the blood of patients with compensated cirrhosis and observed that miR-181b-5p can predict which patients are going to develop ascites.
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•miR-181b-5p appears to be a useful serum biomarker to anticipate ascites onset.•Low serum miR-181b-5p indicates low risk of ascites in compensated cirrhosis.•Low serum miR-429 reflects acute hemodynamic response to non-selective beta-blockers.
Liver cirrhosis due to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a life-threatening condition with increasing incidence world-wide. Although its symptoms are unspecific, it can lead to decompensation ...events such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal hemorrhage, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In addition, an increased risk for cardiovascular events has been demonstrated in patients with NASH. Pharmacological treatments for NASH cirrhosis are not yet available, one of the reasons being the lack in surrogate endpoints available in clinical trials of NASH cirrhosis. The feasibility of non-invasive prognostic biomarkers makes them interesting candidates as possible surrogate endpoints if their change following treatment would result in better outcomes for patients in future clinical trials of NASH cirrhosis. In this systematic literature review, a summary of the available literature on the prognostic performance of non-invasive biomarkers in terms of cardiovascular events, liver-related events, and mortality is outlined. Due to the scarcity of data specific for NASH cirrhosis, this review includes studies on NAFLD whose evaluation focuses on cirrhosis. Our search strategy identified the following non-invasive biomarkers with prognostic value in studies of NASH patients: NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI), enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF™), BARD (BMI, AST/ALT (alanine aminotransferase) ratio, diabetes), Hepamet Fibrosis Score (HFS), liver enzymes (AST + ALT), alpha-fetoprotein, platelet count, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), Lysyl oxidase-like (LOXL) 2, miR-122, liver stiffness, MEFIB (liver stiffness measured with magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) + FIB-4), and PNPLA3 GG genotype. The aim of the present systematic literature review is to provide the reader with a summary of the non-invasive biomarkers with prognostic value in NASH cirrhosis and give an evaluation of their utility as treatment monitoring biomarkers in future clinical trials.
Patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) can safely avoid screening endoscopy with a platelet count >150 × 109 cells/L and a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa (Baveno ...VI criteria). However, the total number of avoided endoscopies using this rule is relatively low. We aimed at expanding the Baveno VI criteria and validating them in additional cohorts. Patients from the Anticipate cohort (499 patients with cACLD of different etiologies) were used to study the performance of different thresholds of platelets and LSM for the identification of patients at very low risk (<5%) of having varices needing treatment (VNT). The new criteria (Expanded‐Baveno VI) were validated in two additional cohorts from London (309 patients) and Barcelona (117 patients). The performance of the new criteria by etiology of cACLD was also assessed. The best new expanded classification rule was platelet count >110 × 109 cells/L and LSM <25 kPa. This was validated in the two additional cohorts. Overall, the Expanded‐Baveno VI criteria would potentially spare 367 (40%) endoscopies (21% with Baveno VI criteria) with a risk of missing VNT of 1.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.7%‐3.5%) in patients within the criteria and 0.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.3%‐1.4%) in the overall population of 925 patients evaluated. The Expanded‐Baveno VI criteria performed well in patients with cACLD with hepatitis C virus and alcoholic and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Conclusion: The new Expanded‐Baveno VI criteria spare more endoscopies than the original criteria with a minimal risk of missing VNT in most of the main etiologies of cACLD. (Hepatology 2017;66:1980–1988)
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