Uncertainty analysis of models has received increasing attention over the last two decades in water resources research. However, a significant part of the community is still reluctant to embrace the ...estimation of uncertainty in hydrological and hydraulic modeling. In this paper, we summarize and explore seven common arguments: uncertainty analysis is not necessary given physically realistic models; uncertainty analysis cannot be used in hydrological and hydraulic hypothesis testing; uncertainty (probability) distributions cannot be understood by policy makers and the public; uncertainty analysis cannot be incorporated into the decision-making process; uncertainty analysis is too subjective; uncertainty analysis is too difficult to perform; uncertainty does not really matter in making the final decision. We will argue that none of the arguments against uncertainty analysis rehearsed are, in the end, tenable. Moreover, we suggest that one reason why the application of uncertainty analysis is not normal and expected part of modeling practice is that mature guidance on methods and applications does not exist. The paper concludes with suggesting that a Code of Practice is needed as a way of formalizing such guidance.
Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of ...methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.
The time water spends travelling subsurface through a catchment to the stream network (i.e. the catchment water transit time) fundamentally describes the storage, flow pathway heterogeneity and ...sources of water in a catchment. The distribution of transit times reflects how catchments retain and release water and solutes that in turn set biogeochemical conditions and affect contamination release or persistence. Thus, quan- tifying the transit time distribution provides an important constraint on biogeochemical processes and catchment sensitivity to anthropogenic inputs, contamination and land-use change. Although the assumptions and limitations of past and present transit time modelling approaches have been recently reviewed (McGuire and McDonnell, 2006), there remain many fundamental research challenges for understanding how transit time can be used to quantify catchment flow processes and aid in the development and testing of rainfall–runoff models. In this Commen- tary study, we summarize what we think are the open research questions in transit time research. These thoughts come from a 3-day workshop in January 2009 at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. We attempt to lay out a roadmap for this work for the hydrological commu- nity over the next 10 years. We do this by first defining what we mean (qualitatively and quantitatively) by transit time and then organize our vision around needs in transit time theory, needs in field studies of tran- sit time and needs in rainfall – runoff modelling. Our goal in presenting this material is to encourage widespread use of transit time information in process studies to provide new insights to catchment function and to inform the structural development and testing of hydrologic models.
Abstract Few studies attempt to measure changes to discharge hydrographs during floods resulting from nature-based Solutions (NbS) for risk mitigation. The Q-NFM project in the UK has sought to ...measure and compare such changes for a wide range of NbS pilots applied to managed grasslands and woodlands. Also measured were underlying shifts in key hydrological processes leading to flood hydrograph changes of enhanced evaporation, hillslope-, channel- and floodplain-storage, and infiltration. How well particular NbS pilots changed these processes to reduce flood hydrographs was found to depend on the attributes of the NbS features and scheme. This learning is presented for the first time to highlight, with supporting evidence, seven potential criteria to help practitioners of flood risk management to improve existing and future designs of NbS for more effective flood mitigation within temperate grassland and woodland environments.
We hypothesise that climate change, together with intensive agricultural systems, will increase the transfer of pollutants from land to water and impact on stream health. This study builds, for the ...first time, an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together a) high-frequency data from the outlets of two surface water-dominated, headwater (~10km2) agricultural catchments, b) event-by-event analysis of nutrient transfers, c) concentration duration curves for comparison with EU Water Framework Directive water quality targets, d) event analysis of location-specific, sub-daily rainfall projections (UKCP, 2009), and e) a linear model relating storm rainfall to phosphorus load. These components, in combination, bring innovation and new insight into the estimation of future phosphorus transfers, which was not available from individual components. The data demonstrated two features of particular concern for climate change impacts. Firstly, the bulk of the suspended sediment and total phosphorus (TP) load (greater than 90% and 80% respectively) was transferred during the highest discharge events. The linear model of rainfall-driven TP transfers estimated that, with the projected increase in winter rainfall (+8% to +17% in the catchments by 2050s), annual event loads might increase by around 9% on average, if agricultural practices remain unchanged. Secondly, events following dry periods of several weeks, particularly in summer, were responsible for high concentrations of phosphorus, but relatively low loads. The high concentrations, associated with low flow, could become more frequent or last longer in the future, with a corresponding increase in the length of time that threshold concentrations (e.g. for water quality status) are exceeded. The results suggest that in order to build resilience in stream health and help mitigate potential increases in diffuse agricultural water pollution due to climate change, land management practices should target controllable risk factors, such as soil nutrient status, soil condition and crop cover.
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•Climate change may increase pollutant transfers from agricultural land.•High temporal resolution data enabled present day nutrient dynamics to be analysed.•High flow events (>Q10) transported >90% of sediment, >80% of phosphorus•Longer periods of low flow and high concentration will increase ecological risk.•Average phosphorus loads may increase by 9% with higher rainfall volume and intensity.
Many details about the flow of water in soils in a hillslope are unknowable given current technologies. One way of learning about the bulk effects of water velocity distributions on hillslopes is ...through the use of tracers. However, this paper will demonstrate that the interpretation of tracer information needs to become more sophisticated. The paper reviews, and complements with mathematical arguments and specific examples, theory and practice of the distribution(s) of the times water particles injected through rainfall spend traveling through a catchment up to a control section (i.e., “catchment” travel times). The relevance of the work is perceived to lie in the importance of the characterization of travel time distributions as fundamental descriptors of catchment water storage, flow pathway heterogeneity, sources of water in a catchment, and the chemistry of water flows through the control section. The paper aims to correct some common misconceptions used in analyses of travel time distributions. In particular, it stresses the conceptual and practical differences between the travel time distribution conditional on a given injection time (needed for rainfall‐runoff transformations) and that conditional on a given sampling time at the outlet (as provided by isotopic dating techniques or tracer measurements), jointly with the differences of both with the residence time distributions of water particles in storage within the catchment at any time. These differences are defined precisely here, either through the results of different models or theoretically by using an extension of a classic theorem of dynamic controls. Specifically, we address different model results to highlight the features of travel times seen from different assumptions, in this case, exact solutions to a lumped model and numerical solutions of the 3‐D flow and transport equations in variably saturated, physically heterogeneous catchment domains. Our results stress the individual characters of the relevant distributions and their general nonstationarity yielding their legitimate interchange only in very particular conditions rarely achieved in the field. We also briefly discuss the impact of oversimple assumptions commonly used in analyses of tracer data.
Key Points
Define properly the kinematics of catchment travel time distributions
Correct common misconceptions with notable implications, e.g., for tracer studies
Distinguish travel from residence time distributions
In the present paper an uncertainty analysis on an application of the commercial urban drainage model MOUSE is conducted. Applying the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology ...the model is conditioned on observation time series from two flow gauges as well as the occurrence of combined sewer overflow. The GLUE methodology is used to test different conceptual setups in order to determine if one model setup gives a better goodness of fit conditional on the observations than the other. Moreover, different methodological investigations of GLUE are conducted in order to test if the uncertainty analysis is unambiguous. It is shown that the GLUE methodology is very applicable in uncertainty analysis of this application of an urban drainage model, although it was shown to be quite difficult to get good fits of the whole time series.
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