Tropical deforestation is responsible for around one tenth of total anthropogenic carbon emissions, and tropical protected areas (PAs) that reduce deforestation can therefore play an important role ...in mitigating climate change and protecting biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the effectiveness of PAs in reducing deforestation has been estimated, the impact on global carbon emissions remains unquantified. Here we show that tropical PAs overall reduced deforestation carbon emissions by 4.88 Pg, or around 29%, between 2000 and 2012, when compared to expected rates of deforestation controlling for spatial variation in deforestation pressure. The largest contribution was from the tropical Americas (368.8 GgC y
), followed by Asia (25.0 GgC y
) and Africa (12.7 GgC y
). Variation in PA effectiveness is largely driven by local factors affecting individual PAs, rather than designations assigned by governments.
Aim
Many conservation efforts now focus on mitigating biodiversity loss due to climate change. While a focus on impacts from mean, long‐term changes in climate is warranted, the vast majority of ...conservation plans largely ignore another key factor of climate change—changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events. A typology of the full range and severity of ecological responses to extreme events would help underpin tracking of their impacts.
Location
Global.
Methods
Here, we review 519 observational studies of ecological responses to extreme events between 1941 and 2015. We include responses from amphibians, birds, fish, invertebrates, mammals, plants and reptiles to cyclones, drought, flood, cold waves and heat waves.
Results
Negative ecological responses were the most commonly reported, accounting for 57% of all documented responses. There were over 100 cases of a >25% population decline and 31 cases of local extirpation. Sixty per cent of the studies in our review observed ecological responses for more than 1 year, and of the studies that monitored species or ecosystem recovery following exposure to an extreme event, 38% showed species or ecosystems did not recover to pre‐disturbance levels.
Main conclusions
Extreme weather and climate events have profound implications for species and ecosystem management. We discuss current conceptual challenges associated with incorporating extreme events into conservation planning efforts, which include how to quantify species sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, how to account for interactions between extreme events and other stressors, and how to maximize adaptive capacity to more frequent and intense extreme events.
Environmental losses are increasingly evoking ‘‘ecological grief’’ among environmental and conservation professionals. Ecological grief is a natural but difficult psychological experience, and a risk ...to well‐being. Despite this, there are currently few resources available to support environmental professionals and their organizations to reduce the risks to well‐being and cope effectively with ecological grief. As a result, environmental professionals who experience this risk in the workplace are unlikely to be equipped with the knowledge, skills, or context to support themselves, colleagues, or peers, in experiences of ecological grief. In this paper, we provide information, guidance, and examples of workplace support for ecological grief. Drawing on insights from the field of grief and bereavement, we identify peer support and organizational responses as key supportive factors for those experiencing ecological grief. We also present a new concept, ‘‘ecological grief literacy,’’ to guide effective peer and organizational support. While peers have the potential to provide interpersonal support and connection for ecological grieving, it is essential that the organizations that employ environmental professionals enact policies and practices that provide structures, resources, and contexts to enable environmental professionals to effectively support ourselves and each other.
Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the ...flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long‐lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed dispersal ecology, and demands a focused research effort.
Species that cannot adapt or keep pace with a changing climate are likely to need human intervention to shift to more suitable climates. While hundreds of articles mention using translocation as a ...climate‐change adaptation tool, in practice, assisted migration as a conservation action remains rare, especially for animals. This is likely due to concern over introducing species to places where they may become invasive. However, there are other barriers to consider, such as time‐frame mismatch, sociopolitical, knowledge and uncertainty barriers to conservationists adopting assisted migration as a go‐to strategy. We recommend the following to advance assisted migration as a conservation tool: attempt assisted migrations at small scales, translocate species with little invasion risk, adopt robust monitoring protocols that trigger an active response, and promote political and public support.
Importancia de las Reubicaciones de Especies bajo el Cambio Climático Acelerado
Resumen
Las especies que no pueden adaptarse o mantener el ritmo del cambio climático probablemente requieran de la intervención humana para mudarse a climas más adecuados. Mientras que cientos de artículos mencionan el uso de las reubicaciones como una herramienta de adaptación al cambio climático, en la práctica, la migración asistida todavía es rara como una acción de conservación, especialmente para animales. Lo anterior probablemente se debe a la preocupación que existe por la introducción de especies a sitios en los que podrían volverse invasoras. Sin embargo, existen otras barreras que deberían considerarse, como aquellas ocasionadas por el desfase en el marco temporal, cuestiones sociopolíticas, de conocimiento o de incertidumbre para los conservacionistas que adoptan a la migración asistida como la estrategia de cajón. Recomendamos lo siguiente para que la migración asistida avance como herramienta de conservación: intentar realizar migraciones asistidas a pequeñas escalas, reubicar especies con poco riesgo de invasión, adoptar protocolos de monitoreo robustos que generen una respuesta activa y promover el apoyo público y político.
摘要
不能适应或跟上气候变化的物种可能需要人类干预以迁移到气候更适宜的地区。虽然已有数百篇文献提到利用辅助迁移作为物种适应气候变化的工具, 但在实践中, 这样的保护行动仍然很少, 特别是对动物来说。这可能是因为人们担心将物种引入新环境可能导致物种的入侵扩散。然而, 保护主义者采用辅助迁移作为首选策略还面临着其它阻碍, 如时限不匹配, 社会政治因素, 知识不足以及不确定性等。为了推动辅助迁移在保护中的应用, 我们建议先尝试小尺度的辅助迁移, 对入侵风险低的物种进行迁移, 采用能引发有效反应的稳健监测方案, 以及加大政治及公众的支持。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】
Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak (
Tectona grandis
) is one of the most ...valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.
Conservation science is a rapidly developing discipline, and the knowledge base it generates is relevant for practical applications. It is therefore crucial to monitor biases and trends in ...conservation literature, to track the progress of the discipline and re-align efforts where needed. We evaluated past and present trends in the focus of the conservation literature, and how they relate to conservation needs. We defined the focus of the past literature from 13 published reviews referring to 18,369 article classifications, and the focus of the current literature by analysing 2553 articles published between 2011–2015. We found that some of the historically under-studied biodiversity elements are receiving significantly more attention today, despite being still under-represented. The total proportion of articles on invertebrates, genetic diversity, or aquatic systems is 50%–60% higher today than it was before 2010. However, a disconnect between scientific focus and conservation needs is still present, with greater attention devoted to areas or taxa less rich in biodiversity and threatened biodiversity. In particular, a strong geographical bias persists, with 40% of studies carried out in USA, Australia or the UK, and only 10% and 6% respectively in Africa or South East Asia. Despite some changing trends, global conservation science is still poorly aligned with biodiversity distribution and conservation priorities, especially in relation to threatened species. To overcome the biases identified here, scientists, funding agencies and journals must prioritise research adaptively, based on biodiversity conservation needs. Conservation depends on policy makers and practitioners for success, and scientists should actively provide those who make decisions with the knowledge that best addresses their needs.
Anthropogenic pressures threaten biodiversity, necessitating conservation actions founded on robust ecological models. However, prevailing models inadequately capture the spatiotemporal variation in ...environmental pressures faced by species with high mobility or complex life histories, as data are often aggregated across species’ life histories or spatial distributions. We highlight the limitations of static models for dynamic species and incorporate life history variation and spatial distributions for species and stressors into a trait-based vulnerability and impact model. We use green sea turtles in the Greater Caribbean Region to demonstrate how vulnerability and anthropogenic impact for a dynamic species change across four life stages. By incorporating life stages into a trait-based vulnerability model, we observed life stage-specific vulnerabilities that were otherwise unnoticed when using an aggregated trait value set. Early life stages were more vulnerable to some stressors, such as inorganic pollution or marine heat waves, and less vulnerable to others, such as bycatch. Incorporating spatial distributions of stressors and life stages revealed impacts differ for each life stage across spatial areas, emphasizing the importance of stage-specific conservation measures. Our approach showcases the importance of incorporating dynamic processes into ecological models and will enable better and more targeted conservation actions for species with complex life histories and high mobility.
Summary
Large‐scale mortality events in forests are increasing in frequency and intensity and can lead to both intermediate‐ and long‐term changes in these systems. Specialist pests and pathogens are ...unique disturbances, as they commonly target individual species that are relatively prevalent in the community.
Understanding the consequences of pathogen‐caused mortality requires using sometimes limited available data to create statistical models that can forecast future community states.
In the last two decades, ash dieback disease has swept through Europe causing widespread mortality of Fraxinus excelsior L. (European ash) across much of its distribution. In the UK, F. excelsior is an abundant and ecologically important species.
Using demographic data from an 18 ha plot in Wytham Woods, Oxfordshire, we built models that forecast the response of this forest plot to the loss of F. excelsior. We combine integral projection models and individual‐based models to link models of growth, survival and fecundity to population dynamics. We demonstrate likely responses in Wytham by comparing projections under different levels of F. excelsior mortality. To extrapolate results to other systems, we test hypotheses regarding the role of abundance, spatial structure and demographic differences between species in determining community response to disease disturbance.
We show that the outcome of succession is determined largely by the differing demographic strategies and starting abundances of competing species. Spatial associations between species were shown to have little effect on community dynamics at the spatial scale of this plot.
Synthesis. Host‐specific pests and pathogens are an increasingly important type of disturbance. We have developed a framework that makes use of forest inventory data to forecast changes in the population dynamics of remaining species and the consequences for community structure. We use our framework to predict how a typical British woodland will respond to ash dieback disease and show how vital rates, spatial structure and abundance impact the community response to the loss of a key species.
Host‐specific pests and pathogens are an increasingly important type of disturbance. We have developed a framework that makes use of forest inventory data to forecast changes in the population dynamics of remaining species and the consequences for community structure. We use our framework to predict how a typical British woodland will respond to ash dieback disease and show how vital rates, spatial structure and abundance impact the community response to the loss of a key species.
In 2010, Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 to address the loss and degradation of nature. Subsequently, most biodiversity ...indicators continued to decline. Nevertheless, conservation actions can make a positive difference for biodiversity. The emerging Post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework has potential to catalyze efforts to “bend the curve” of biodiversity loss. Thus, the inclusion of a goal on species, articulated as Goal B in the Zero Draft of the Post‐2020 Framework, is essential. However, as currently formulated, this goal is inadequate for preventing extinctions, and reversing population declines; both of which are required to achieve the CBD's 2030 Mission. We contend it is unacceptable that Goal B could be met while most threatened species deteriorated in status and many avoidable species extinctions occurred. We examine the limitations of the current wording and propose an articulation with robust scientific basis. A goal for species that strives to end extinctions and recover populations of all species that have experienced population declines, and especially those at risk of extinction, would help to align actors toward the transformative actions and interventions needed for humans to live in harmony with nature.
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