Natural populations are increasingly threatened with collapse at the hands of anthropogenic effects. Predicting population collapse with the help of generic early warning signals (EWS) may provide a ...prospective tool for identifying species or populations at highest risk. However, pattern‐to‐process methods such as EWS have a multitude of challenges to overcome to be useful, including the low signal‐to‐noise ratio of ecological systems and the need for high quality time series data. The inclusion of trait dynamics with EWS has been proposed as a more robust tool to predict population collapse. However, the length and resolution of available time series are highly variable from one system to another, especially when generation time is considered. As yet, it remains unknown how this variability with regards to generation time will alter the efficacy of EWS. Here we take both a simulation‐ and experimental‐based approach to assess the impacts of relative time series length and resolution on the forecasting ability of EWS. We show that EWS’ performance decreases with decreasing time‐series length. However, there was no evident decrease in EWS performance as resolution decreased. Our simulations suggest a relative time series length between 10 and five generations as a minimum requirement for accurate forecasting by abundance‐based EWS. However, when trait information is included alongside abundance‐based EWS, we find positive signals at lengths one‐half of what was required without them. We suggest that, in systems where specific traits are known to affect demography, trait data should be monitored and included alongside abundance data to improve forecasting reliability.
ABSTRACT
We analyse the physical properties of 121 SNR ≥ 5 sub-millimetre galaxies (SMGs) from the STUDIES 450 μm survey. We model their UV-to-radio spectral energy distributions using ...magphys+photo-z and compare the results to similar modelling of 850 μm-selected SMG sample from AS2UDS, to understand the fundamental physical differences between the two populations at the observed depths. The redshift distribution of the 450-μm sample has a median of z = 1.85 ± 0.12 and can be described by strong evolution of the far-infrared luminosity function. The fainter 450-μm sample has ∼14 times higher space density than the brighter 850-μm sample at z ≲ 2, and a comparable space density at z = 2–3, before rapidly declining, suggesting LIRGs are the main obscured population at z ∼ 1–2, while ULIRGs dominate at higher redshifts. We construct rest-frame ∼180-μm-selected and dust-mass-matched samples at z = 1–2 and z = 3–4 from the 450 and 850-μm samples, respectively, to probe the evolution of a uniform sample of galaxies spanning the cosmic noon era. Using far-infrared luminosity, dust masses, and an optically thick dust model, we suggest that higher redshift sources have higher dust densities due to inferred dust continuum sizes which are roughly half of those for the lower redshift population at a given dust mass, leading to higher dust attenuation. We track the evolution in the cosmic dust mass density and suggest that the dust content of galaxies is governed by a combination of both the variation of gas content and dust destruction time-scale.
Biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from rapid global change
. Signals of biodiversity change come from time-series abundance datasets for thousands of species over large geographic and temporal ...scales. Analyses of these biodiversity datasets have pointed to varied trends in abundance, including increases and decreases. However, these analyses have not fully accounted for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures in the data. Here, using a new statistical framework, we show across ten high-profile biodiversity datasets
that increases and decreases under existing approaches vanish once spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures are accounted for. This is a consequence of existing approaches severely underestimating trend uncertainty and sometimes misestimating the trend direction. Under our revised average abundance trends that appropriately recognize uncertainty, we failed to observe a single increasing or decreasing trend at 95% credible intervals in our ten datasets. This emphasizes how little is known about biodiversity change across vast spatial and taxonomic scales. Despite this uncertainty at vast scales, we reveal improved local-scale prediction accuracy by accounting for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures. Improved prediction offers hope of estimating biodiversity change at policy-relevant scales, guiding adaptive conservation responses.
Gd60Fe20Al20 microwires with an average diameter of ∼44 μm were fabricated by the melt-extraction method. XRD, TEM and HRTEM confirmed the amorphous nature of the microwires. The dimensional and ...chemical uniformity of the microwires over their length were confirmed by SEM and EDS, respectively. Magnetization measurements revealed a broad paramagnetic to ferromagnetic phase transition at TC ∼202 K. For μ0ΔH = 5 T, the microwires exhibit a broad magnetic entropy change with its maximum value ΔSMmax of ∼4.8 J kg−1 K−1 and a large refrigerant capacity (RC) of ∼687 J kg−1 over a large temperature interval (150 K). This RC value of the microwires is larger than those of the previously reported bulk and ribbon counterparts. An analysis of critical exponents reveals that γ = 1.246 ± 0.017 is close to that predicted by the 3D Ising theoretical model, while β = 0.723 ± 0.011 does not agree with any of the critical exponents predicted by the existing models. This can be attributed to the antiferromagnetic coupling between the rare earth (Gd) and the transition metal (Fe). The origins of the broad magnetic phase transition, the broad magnetic entropy change, and the large refrigerant capacity are discussed.
•High-quality amorphous melt-extracted Gd60Fe20Al20 microwires.•Large magnetocaloric effect and refrigerant capacity.•Critical magnetic behavior and complex interactions.•Magnetic refrigerator for nitrogen liquefaction.
Genetic variation in brain size may provide the basis for the evolution of the brain and complex behaviours. The genetic substrate and the selective pressures acting on brain size are poorly ...understood. Here we use the Drosophila Genetic Reference Panel to map polymorphic variants affecting natural variation in mushroom body morphology. We identify 139 genes and 39 transcription factors and confirm effects on development and adult plasticity. We show correlations between morphology and aggression, sleep and lifespan. We propose that natural variation in adult brain size is controlled by interaction of the environment with gene networks controlling development and plasticity.
Although the phylogeography of European mammals has been extensively investigated since the 1990s, many studies were limited in terms of sampling distribution, the number of molecular markers used ...and the analytical techniques employed, frequently leading to incomplete postglacial recolonisation scenarios. The broad-scale genetic structure of the European badger (Meles meles) is of interest as it may result from historic restriction to glacial refugia and/or recent anthropogenic impact. However, previous studies were based mostly on samples from western Europe, making it difficult to draw robust conclusions about the location of refugia, patterns of postglacial expansion and recent demography. In the present study, continent-wide sampling and analyses with multiple markers provided evidence for two glacial refugia (Iberia and southeast Europe) that contributed to the genetic variation observed in badgers in Europe today. Approximate Bayesian computation provided support for a colonisation of Scandinavia from both Iberian and southeastern refugia. In the whole of Europe, we observed a decline in genetic diversity with increasing latitude, suggesting that the reduced diversity in the peripheral populations resulted from a postglacial expansion processes. Although MSVAR v.1.3 also provided evidence for recent genetic bottlenecks in some of these peripheral populations, the simulations performed to estimate the method's power to correctly infer the past demography of our empirical populations suggested that the timing and severity of bottlenecks could not be established with certainty. We urge caution against trying to relate demographic declines inferred using MSVAR with particular historic or climatological events.
We report on the structural, magnetic, and magnetocaloric properties and critical behavior of high-quality amorphous melt-extracted Gd50(Co69.25Fe4.25Si13B13.5)50 alloy microwires with an average ...diameter of 42 μm. The microwires undergo a second-order paramagnetic to ferromagnetic (PM-FM) transition around the Curie temperature, TC ∼ 174 K. Around the PM-FM phase transition temperature, the magnetic entropy change ΔSM reaches a maximum value ΔSMmax of about 5.9 J/kg K for a magnetic field change of 5 T. An iterative Kouvel-Fisher method was used to analyze the critical behavior of the second-order phase transition. The critical exponent values are β = 0.493 ± 0.005, γ = 1.321 ± 0.011, and δ = 3.678 ± 0.073, which are close to those expected for the mean-field model with long-range interactions below TC and for the 3D-Heisenberg model with short-range interactions above TC. The magnetic and magnetocaloric behaviors of the Gd alloy microwires near the PM-FM phase transition are discussed.
•High-quality amorphous melt-extracted Gd50(Co69.25Fe4.25Si13B13.5)50 microwires.•Large magnetocaloric effect and refrigerant capacity.•Critical magnetic behavior and complex interactions.•Magnetic refrigerator for nitrogen liquefaction.
AbstractObjectivesTo develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age.DesignAnalysis of ...genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa.SettingMultiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium.ParticipantsAll consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men.Main outcome measuresPrediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set.ResultsIn the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P<10−16). When men in the validation set with high scores (>98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score.ConclusionsPolygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa.
Background
Recent evidence has suggested an association between postoperative non‐steroidal anti‐inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and increased operation‐specific complications. This study aimed to ...determine the safety profile following gastrointestinal surgery across a multicentre setting in the UK.
Methods
This multicentre study was carried out during a 2‐week interval in September–October 2013. Consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection were included. The study was powered to detect a 10 per cent increase in major complications (grade III–V according to the Dindo–Clavien classification). The effect of administration of NSAIDs on the day of surgery or the following 2 days was risk‐adjusted using propensity score matching and multivariable logistic regression to produce adjusted odds ratios (ORs). The type of NSAID and the dose were registered.
Results
Across 109 centres, early postoperative NSAIDs were administered to 242 (16·1 per cent) of 1503 patients. Complications occurred in 981 patients (65·3 per cent), which were major in 257 (17·1 per cent) and minor (Dindo–Clavien grade I–II) in 724 (48·2 per cent). Propensity score matching created well balanced groups. Treatment with NSAIDs was associated with a reduction in overall complications (OR 0·72, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·52 to 0·99; P = 0·041). This effect predominately comprised a reduction in minor complications with high‐dose NSAIDs (OR 0·57, 0·39 to 0·89; P = 0·009).
Conclusion
Early use of NSAIDs is associated with a reduction in postoperative adverse events following major gastrointestinal surgery.
Some non‐steroidal anti‐inflammatory drugs may be beneficial
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