Unhealthy diets pose a greater risk to morbidity and mortality than does unsafe sex, and alcohol, drug, and tobacco use combined. Because much of the world's population is inadequately nourished and ...many environmental systems and processes are pushed beyond safe boundaries by food production, a global transformation of the food system is urgently needed. More than 820 million people have insufficient food and many more consume an unhealthy diet that contributes to premature death and morbidity. ...global food production is the largest pressure caused by humans on Earth, threatening local ecosystems and the stability of the Earth system. With food production causing major global environmental risks, sustainable food production needs to operate within the safe operating space for food systems at all scales on Earth. ...sustainable food production for about 10 billion people should use no additional land, safeguard existing biodiversity, reduce consumptive water use and manage water responsibly, substantially reduce nitrogen and phosphorus pollution, produce zero carbon dioxide emissions, and cause no further increase in methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Because food systems are a major driver of poor health and environmental degradation, global efforts are urgently needed to collectively transform diets and food production.
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides
. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the ...declining trends in biodiversity
; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge
. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity
. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.
Beyond the Lines explores the social underpinnings of rebel adaptation and resilience. How do rebel groups cope with crises such as repression, displacement, and fragmentation? What explains changes ...in militant organizations' structures and behaviors over time? Drawing on nearly two years of ethnographic research, Sarah E. Parkinson traces shifts in Palestinian militant groups' internal structures and practices during the civil war of 1975 to 1990 and foreign occupations of Lebanon. She shows that most militants approach asymmetrical warfare as a series of challenges centered around information and logistics, characterized by problems such as supplying constantly mobile forces, identifying collaborators, disrupting rival belligerents' operations, and providing essential services like healthcare. Effective negotiation of these challenges contributes to militant organizations' resilience and survival. In this context, the foundation of rebel resilience lies with militants' ability to repurpose their everyday social networks to organizational ends. In the Lebanese setting, Beyond the Lines demonstrates how regionalized differences in Israeli, Syrian, and Lebanese deployment of violence triggered distinct social network responses that led to divergent organizational outcomes for Palestinian militants.
While environmental science, and ecology in particular, is working to provide better understanding to base sustainable decisions on, the way scientific understanding is developed can at times be ...detrimental to this cause. Locked‐in debates are often unnecessarily polarised and can compromise any common goals of the opposing camps. The present paper is inspired by a resolved debate from an unrelated field of psychology where Nobel laureate David Kahneman and Garry Klein turned what seemed to be a locked‐in debate into a constructive process for their fields. The present paper is also motivated by previous discourses regarding the role of thresholds in natural systems for management and governance, but its scope of analysis targets the scientific process within complex social‐ecological systems in general. We identified four features of environmental science that appear to predispose for locked‐in debates: (1) The strongly context‐dependent behaviour of ecological systems. (2) The dominant role of single hypothesis testing. (3) The high prominence given to theory demonstration compared investigation. (4) The effect of urgent demands to inform and steer policy. This fertile ground is further cultivated by human psychological aspects as well as the structure of funding and publication systems.
The ecological discipline is prone to locked in debates that hamper theory development and reduce it efficiency in influencing policy development. We outline the mechanisms behind these locked in debates and discuss possible ways to prevent these.
Human activities are disrupting the Earth system’s biophysical processes, which underlie human wellbeing. The planetary boundary framework sets ‘safe’ global limits on these pressures, but a ...sub-global assessment of these pressures, their interactions and subsequent systemic effects is needed to enable corporate and public entities to assess the systemic environmental impacts of their decisions. Here, we developed a prototype Earth system impact metric that is savvy to Earth system interactions. First, we quantified sub-global interactions between climate change, surface water runoff, and vegetation cover using the global dynamic vegetation model LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land). Second, we used a feedback model to study how these interactions amplify environmental impacts. We found, for example, that interactions more than double the Earth system impacts of deforestation in some tropical forests. Finally, we combined these amplification factors with an assessment of the current state of the Earth system to create a prototype Earth system impact metric. We envision that future versions of our prototype metric will allow corporate and public actors to better assess the systemic environmental impacts of their decisions. Our ambition is that these results catalyse further scientific work to extend and improve this metric, as well as action by investors, companies, cities, and governments to deliver sustainable outcomes across the private and public sectors.
In the past, plant breeding has undergone three major transformations and is currently transitioning to a new technological phase, Breeding 4. This phase is characterized by the development of ...methods for biological design of plant varieties, including transformation and gene editing techniques directed toward causal loci. The application of such technologies will require to reliably estimate the effect of loci in plant genomes by avoiding the situation where the number of loci assayed (
p
) surpasses the number of plant genotypes (
n
). Here, we discuss approaches to avoid this curse of dimensionality (
n
≪
p
), which will involve analyzing intermediate phenotypes such as molecular traits and component traits related to plant morphology or physiology. Because these approaches will rely on novel data types such as DNA sequences and high-throughput phenotyping images, Breeding 4 will call for analyses that are complementary to traditional quantitative genetic studies, being based on machine learning techniques which make efficient use of sequence and image data. In this article, we will present some of these techniques and their application for prioritizing causal loci and developing improved varieties in Breeding 4.
Recent assessments alarmingly indicate that many of the world's leading chemicals are transgressing one or more of the nine planetary boundaries, which define safe operating spaces within which ...humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come. The unfolding crisis cannot be ignored and there is a once-in-a-century opportunity for chemistry - the science of transformation of matter - to make a critical difference to the future of people and planet. How can chemists contribute to meeting these challenges and restore stability and strengthen resilience to the planetary system that humanity needs for its survival? To respond to the wake-up call, three crucial steps are outlined: (1) urgently working to understand the nature of the looming threats, from a chemistry perspective; (2) harnessing the ingenuity and innovation that are central to the practice of chemistry to develop sustainable solutions; and (3) transforming chemistry itself, in education, research and industry, to re-position it as 'chemistry for sustainability' and lead the stewardship of the world's chemical resources. This will require conservation of material stocks in forms that remain available for use, through attention to circularity, as well as strengthening engagement in systems-based approaches to designing chemistry research and processes informed by convergent working with many other disciplines.
Chemistry, the science of transformation of matter, is fundamental to achieving sustainability through ensuring biogeochemical flows do not transgress planetary boundaries. This requires urgent changes in chemistry education, research and industry.
Background: The Planetary Boundaries concept (PBc) has emerged as a key global sustainability concept in international sustainable development arenas. Initially presented as an agenda for global ...sustainability research, it now shows potential for sustainability governance. We use the fact that it is widely cited in scientific literature (>3500 citations) and an extensively studied concept to analyse how it has been used and developed since its first publication. Design: From the literature that cites the PBc, we select those articles that have the terms 'planetary boundaries' or 'safe operating space' in either title, abstract or keywords. We assume that this literature substantively engages with and develops the PBc. Results: We find that 6% of the citing literature engages with the concept. Within this fraction of the literature we distinguish commentaries-that discuss the context and challenges to implementing the PBc, articles that develop the core biogeophysical concept and articles that apply the concept by translating to sub-global scales and by adding a human component to it. Applied literature adds to the concept by explicitly including society through perspectives of impacts, needs, aspirations and behaviours. Discussion: Literature applying the concept does not yet include the more complex, diverse, cultural and behavioural facet of humanity that is implied in commentary literature. We suggest there is need for a positive framing of sustainability goals-as a Safe Operating Space rather than boundaries. Key scientific challenges include distinguishing generalised from context-specific knowledge, clarifying which processes are generalizable and which are scalable, and explicitly applying complex systems' knowledge in the application and development of the PBc. We envisage that opportunities to address these challenges will arise when more human social dimensions are integrated, as we learn to feed the global sustainability vision with a plurality of bottom-up realisations of sustainability.
•Nine planetary boundaries have been defined that delimit the safe operating space for humanity.•The biodiversity boundary was transgressed more than any other.•We revisit the scientific basis for ...the biodiversity boundary and the extinction rate metric.•Instead we propose measures of the genetic library, functional diversity, and biome condition.•We highlight the particular significance of interactions between the boundaries.
The idea that there is an identifiable set of boundaries, beyond which anthropogenic change will put the Earth system outside a safe operating space for humanity, is attracting interest in the scientific community and gaining support in the environmental policy world. Rockstrom et al. (2009) identify nine such boundaries and highlight biodiversity loss as being the single boundary where current rates of extinction put the Earth system furthest outside the safe operating space. Here we review the evidence to support a boundary based on extinction rates and identify weaknesses with this metric and its bearing on humanity's needs. While changes to biodiversity are of undisputed importance, we show that both extinction rate and species richness are weak metrics for this purpose, and they do not scale well from local to regional or global levels. We develop alternative approaches to determine biodiversity loss boundaries and extend our analysis to consider large-scale responses in the Earth system that could affect its suitability for complex human societies which in turn are mediated by the biosphere. We suggest three facets of biodiversity on which a boundary could be based: the genetic library of life; functional type diversity; and biome condition and extent. For each of these we explore the science needed to indicate how it might be measured and how changes would affect human societies. In addition to these three facets, we show how biodiversity's role in supporting a safe operating space for humanity may lie primarily in its interactions with other boundaries, suggesting an immediate area of focus for scientists and policymakers.
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