1. As global biodiversity continues to decline steeply, it is becoming increasingly important to understand diversity patterns at local and regional scales. 2. Changes in land use and climate, ...nitrogen deposition and invasive species are the most important threats to global biodiversity. Because land use changes tend to benefit a few species but impede many, the expected outcome is generally decreasing population sizes, decreasing species richness at local and regional scales, and increasing similarity of species compositions across sites (biotic homogenization). Homogenization can be also driven by invasive species or effects of soil eutrophication propagating to higher trophic levels. In contrast, in the absence of increasing aridity, climate warming is predicted to generally increase abundances and species richness of poikilotherms at local and regional scales. 3. We tested these predictions with data from one of the few existing monitoring programmes on biodiversity in the world dating to the 1960s, where the abundance of 878 species of macro-moths have been measured daily at seven sites across Hungary. 4. Our analyses revealed a dramatic rate of regional species loss and homogenization of community compositions across sites. Species with restricted distribution range, specialized diet or dry grassland habitat were more likely than others to disappear from the community. 5. In global context, the contrasting effects of climate change and land use changes could explain why the predicted enriching effects from climate warming are not always realized.
The diameter distribution of a given species of deciduous trees is well approximated by a Gamma distribution. Here we give new experimental evidence for this conjecture by analyzing deciduous tree ...size data in mature semi-natural forest and ancient, traditionally managed wood-pasture from Central Europe. These distribution functions collapse on a universal shape if the tree sizes are normalized to the mean value in the considered sample. A new evolutionary master equation is used to model the observed distribution. The model incorporates four ecological processes: tree growth, mortality, recruitment, and diversification. Utilizing simple and realistic kernel functions describing the first three, along with an assumed multiplicative dilution due to diversification, the stationary solution of the master equation yields the experimentally observed Gamma distribution. The model as it is formulated allows an analytically compact solution and has only two fitting parameters whose values are consistent with the experimental data related to these processes. We found that the equilibrium size distribution of tree species with different ecology, originating from two contrastingly different semi-natural ecosystem types can be accurately described by a single dynamical mean-field model.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful and widely used approach in inference of population history. However, the computational effort required to discriminate among alternative ...historical scenarios often limits the set that is compared to those considered more likely a priori. While often justifiable, this approach will fail to consider unexpected but well‐supported population histories. We used a hierarchical tournament approach, in which subsets of scenarios are compared in a first round of ABC analyses and the winners are compared in a second analysis, to reconstruct the population history of an oak gall wasp, Synergus umbraculus (Hymenoptera, Cynipidae) across the Western Palaearctic. We used 4,233 bp of sequence data across seven loci to explore the relationships between four putative Pleistocene refuge populations in Iberia, Italy, the Balkans and Western Asia. We compared support for 148 alternative scenarios in eight pools, each pool comprising all possible rearrangements of four populations over a given topology of relationships, with or without founding of one population by admixture and with or without an unsampled “ghost” population. We found very little support for the directional “out of the east” scenario previously inferred for other gall wasp community members. Instead, the best‐supported models identified Iberia as the first‐regional population to diverge from the others in the late Pleistocene, followed by divergence between the Balkans and Western Asia, and founding of the Italian population through late Pleistocene admixture from Iberia and the Balkans. We compare these results with what is known for other members of the oak gall community, and consider the strengths and weaknesses of using a tournament approach to explore phylogeographic model space.
Introduced pathogen microorganisms are important drivers of ecosystem change. This paper highlights the impact of the non-native pathogen mildew multi-species complex on the natural regeneration ...dynamics of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur). Pedunculate oak is a European keystone tree species, hosting a great amount of biodiversity, but its future role in (near-)natural forests is uncertain due to the lack of natural regeneration. We reviewed historical and recent ecological, pathological and forestry literature on topics related to the impact of mildew on the success of advanced natural regeneration of pedunculate oak in (near-)natural forests. We propose a novel hypothesis, the ‘pathogen mildew hypothesis’, to explain the failure of natural regeneration of pedunculate oak. Mildew reduces shade tolerance and vertical growth in seedlings and saplings, so sapling vitality and competitiveness have diminished considerably since it was unintentionally introduced to Europe in the early 20th century. Due to mildew infection, pedunculate oak in many cases no longer regenerates well naturally under its own canopy. We found that forest ecologists and conservationists often overlook the impacts of this ‘recent’ driver, while the ‘closed-forest’ and ‘wood-pasture’ hypotheses do not adequately help the management of pedunculate oak regeneration. Nature conservation and forest management plans should thus also consider the impact of mildew in order to improve natural regeneration, promote close-to-nature management of pedunculate oak forests, and support associated diversity. More generally, nature conservation, forest ecology and close-to-nature forestry should pay greater attention to the impact of introduced non-native microorganisms on the dynamics of natural ecosystems.
Display omitted
•Ecologists and conservationists often overlook the impacts of alien microorganisms.•An alien microfungus impedes natural regeneration dynamics of a keystone species•Oak powdery mildew reduces shade tolerance and growth in seedlings and saplings.•Proposed hypothesis explains the failure of natural regeneration of pedunculate oak.•The alien microfungus threatens the rich biodiversity associated with oaks in Europe.
•Oak lace bug (OLB) infestation was detected and mapped in Central Europe using MODIS.•New method is presented for decoupling meteorological from the OLB effects on NDVI.•The OLB damage to the forest ...canopy is proportional to the share of oaks in a stand.•The infestation origin in the study area and the speed of OLB spread were determined.•Results indicate that the transportation system is the main driver of the OLB spread.
The oak lace bug (Corythucha arcuata, Say 1832) is a new invasive sap-sucking species in the European oak forests that was first recorded in Central Europe in 2013. It invaded the region from Southeastern Europe, spreads rapidly, and shows no signs of receding after establishment. In this study, focusing on the oak forests in the transboundary area of Hungary and Croatia, we applied two novel methods for detecting and assessing the impact of the oak lace bug (OLB) during the period 2000–2019 based on MODIS NDVI measured at 250 m spatial and 8-day temporal resolution. The first detection method is based purely on NDVI and has the potential to be used in near real-time detection. The second one, based on the residual Z-score of the NDVI models using daily meteorological and soil water content data as independent variables, aims at improved OLB damage assessment by decoupling the effects of the OLB from those caused by the environmental drivers. The presented detection methods had 61.1% to 93.8% agreement with the in situ data, with a better agreement in forests with high oak share. The overall share of the false-positive OLB detections for the strictest method of model residuals was 1.8%. The results confirmed a strong and year-to-year persistent NDVI decrease (down to -14.5% in pure oak forests) during the late summer which can be attributed to the OLB. The origin of the infestation in the study area was identified to be near a resting station on the major highway from Southeastern to Western Europe, corroborating the assumptions that the OLB spread was primarily facilitated by the transport system. The detected speed of the OLB radial spread in the first 3 years of infestation was under 6 km y-1, but since then it increased to above 50 km y-1.
Display omitted
Oak galls are spectacular extended phenotypes of gallwasp genes in host oak tissues and have evolved complex morphologies that serve, in part, to exclude parasitoid natural enemies.Parasitoids and ...their insect herbivore hosts have coevolved to produce diverse communities comprising about a third of all animal species. The factors structuring these communities, however, remain poorly understood. An emerging theme in community ecology is the need to consider the effects of host traits, shaped by both natural selection and phylogenetic history, on associated communities of natural enemies. Here we examine the impact of host traits and phylogenetic relatedness on 48 ecologically closed and species-rich communities of parasitoids attacking gall-inducing wasps on oaks. Gallwasps induce the development of spectacular and structurally complex galls whose species- and generation-specific morphologies are the extended phenotypes of gallwasp genes. All the associated natural enemies attack their concealed hosts through gall tissues, and several structural gall traits have been shown to enhance defence against parasitoid attack. Here we explore the significance of these and other host traits in predicting variation in parasitoid community structure across gallwasp species. In particular, we test the "Enemy Hypothesis," which predicts that galls with similar morphology will exclude similar sets of parasitoids and therefore have similar parasitoid communities. Having controlled for phylogenetic patterning in host traits and communities, we found significant correlations between parasitoid community structure and several gall structural traits (toughness, hairiness, stickiness), supporting the Enemy Hypothesis. Parasitoid community structure was also consistently predicted by components of the hosts' spatiotemporal niche, particularly host oak taxonomy and gall location (e.g., leaf versus bud versus seed). The combined explanatory power of structural and spatiotemporal traits on community structure can be high, reaching 62% in one analysis. The observed patterns derive mainly from partial niche specialisation of highly generalist parasitoids with broad host ranges (>20 hosts), rather than strict separation of enemies with narrower host ranges, and so may contribute to maintenance of the richness of generalist parasitoids in gallwasp communities. Though evolutionary escape from parasitoids might most effectively be achieved via changes in host oak taxon, extreme conservatism in this trait for gallwasps suggests that selection is more likely to have acted on gall morphology and location. Any escape from parasitoids associated with evolutionary shifts in these traits has probably only been transient, however, due to subsequent recruitment of parasitoid species already attacking other host galls with similar trait combinations.
The North American gall mite
Aceria fraxiniflora
was first recorded in Europe in southeast Hungary in 2017. Since then, it has shown a remarkably rapid spread on its host, the also North American ...green ash (
Fraxinus pennsylvanica
). By the beginning of 2023 it has been recorded in eight Central-Eastern European countries. In 2022 it was recorded on the other North American ash (
Fraxinus Americana
) in Zagreb (Croatia) and in Szarvas Arboretum (SE Hungary). Possible reasons and outcomes of this spread are discussed.
Climate change particularly threatens the xeric limits of temperate-continental forests. In Hungary, annual temperatures have increased by 1.2 °C–1.8 °C in the last 30 years and the frequency of ...extreme droughts has grown. With the aim to gain stand-level prospects of sustainability, we have used local forest site variables to identify and project effects of recent and expected changes of climate. We have used a climatic descriptor (FAI index) to compare trends estimated from forest datasets with climatological projections; this is likely for the first time such a comparison has been made. Four independent approaches confirmed the near-linear decline of growth and vitality with increasing hot droughts in summer, using sessile oak as model species. The correlation between droughts and the expansion of pest and disease damages was also found to be significant. Projections of expected changes of main site factors predict a dramatic rise of future drought frequency and, consequently, a substantial shift of forest climate classes, especially at low elevation. Excess water-dependent lowland forests may lose supply from groundwater, which may change vegetation cover and soil development processes. The overall change of site conditions not only causes economic losses, but also challenges long-term sustainability of forest cover at the xeric limits.
In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended ...its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe.
We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021–2040, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future.
Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak (Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.
Display omitted
•Oak lace bug occurrence data compiled from 21 countries.•Realized niche and potential distribution was projected using an SDM ensemble model.•The invasive species has not yet colonized all suitable areas.•By 2100, >80 % of oak species distributions could be colonized.
Both artificial and natural regeneration of oaks strongly depend on the quantity and quality of the acorn crop, which show high year-to-year variation. The volume of the acorn crop is influenced by ...many factors including biotic and abiotic effects. The quality (i.e., germination ability, nutrient reserves) of acorns can be decreased by carpophagous insect and fungal pathogen damage or by inadequate weather conditions. Defoliating insects (caterpillars, sawfly larva, etc.) can significantly decrease the acorn crop as well. The most important predators of the defoliators are insectivorous birds during their nesting period. However, in the oak forests of the northern Hungarian mountains, there is a shortage of natural nesting holes. The main aim of our study was to artificially increase the number of the available nesting holes by nest boxes and to maximize the number of breeding insectivorous birds and register the direct (Lepidoptera densities) and indirect (acorn crop quantity and quality) effects of their presence. We found only slight effects on Lepidoptera densities, so we failed to demonstrate a direct effect in the relatively low time frame of our study. But, we could show the indirect positive effect of increased predation on the health state of the acorn crop, resulting in higher seedling densities, which may improve the natural regeneration potential of sessile oak. This result supports the outstanding importance of natural nesting holes in broadleaved forests.
PDF
