▶ Countries most vulnerable for climate change are generally least responsible for it. ▶ The inequity is most pronounced for climate impacts on food security and human health. ▶ International ...adaptation funding should be informed by sector-specific criteria.
While it is generally asserted that those countries who have contributed least to anthropogenic climate change are most vulnerable to its adverse impacts some recently developed indices of vulnerability to climate change come to a different conclusion. Confirmation or rejection of this assertion is complicated by the lack of an agreed metric for measuring countries’ vulnerability to climate change and by conflicting interpretations of vulnerability. This paper presents a comprehensive semi-quantitative analysis of the disparity between countries’ responsibility for climate change, their capability to act and assist, and their vulnerability to climate change for four climate-sensitive sectors based on a broad range of disaggregated vulnerability indicators. This analysis finds a double inequity between responsibility and capability on the one hand and the vulnerability of food security, human health, and coastal populations on the other. This double inequity is robust across alternative indicator choices and interpretations of vulnerability. The main cause for the higher vulnerability of poor nations who have generally contributed little to climate change is their lower adaptive capacity. In addition, the biophysical sensitivity and socio-economic exposure of poor nations to climate impacts on food security and human health generally exceeds that of wealthier nations. No definite statement can be made on the inequity associated with climate impacts on water supply due to large uncertainties about future changes in regional water availability and to conflicting indicators of current water scarcity. The robust double inequity between responsibility and vulnerability for most climate-sensitive sectors strengthens the moral case for financial and technical assistance from those countries most responsible for climate change to those countries most vulnerable to its adverse impacts. However, the complex and geographically heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability factors for different climate-sensitive sectors suggest that the allocation of international adaptation funds to developing countries should be guided by sector-specific or hazard-specific criteria despite repeated requests from participants in international climate negotiations to develop a generic index of countries’ vulnerability to climate change.
Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment ...practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change. PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009 commits signatory nations to ...stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "reasons for concern" (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram." In presenting the "embers" in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern."
The term ‘vulnerability’ is used in many different ways by various scholarly communities. The resulting disagreement about the appropriate definition of vulnerability is a frequent cause for ...misunderstanding in interdisciplinary research on climate change and a challenge for attempts to develop formal models of vulnerability. Earlier attempts at reconciling the various conceptualizations of vulnerability were, at best, partly successful. This paper presents a generally applicable conceptual framework of vulnerability that combines a nomenclature of vulnerable situations and a terminology of vulnerability concepts based on the distinction of four fundamental groups of vulnerability factors. This conceptual framework is applied to characterize the vulnerability concepts employed by the main schools of vulnerability research and to review earlier attempts at classifying vulnerability concepts. None of these one-dimensional classification schemes reflects the diversity of vulnerability concepts identified in this review. The wide range of policy responses available to address the risks from global climate change suggests that climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments will continue to apply a variety of vulnerability concepts. The framework presented here provides the much-needed conceptual clarity and facilitates bridging the various approaches to researching vulnerability to climate change.
ABSTRACT
During the last decades, the effects of global warming have become apparent also in Europe, causing relevant impacts in many sectors. Under projected future global warming, such a tendency ...can be expected to persist until the end of this century and beyond. Identifying which climate‐related impacts are likely to increase, and by how much, is an important element of any effective strategy for managing future climate risks. This study investigates whether energy demand for cooling and heating buildings can be expected to increase or decrease under climate change. Two indicators of weather‐related energy consumption for heating and cooling buildings are considered: heating degree‐days (HDD) and cooling degree‐days (CDD). The evolution of these indicators has been analysed based on 11 high‐resolution bias‐adjusted EURO‐CORDEX simulations for two emission representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Both indicators have been validated over the period 1981–2010 using an independent data set that contains more than 4000 station data, showing very high correlation over most of Europe. Trends of HDD and CDD from 1981 to 2100, together with their uncertainties, are analysed. For both RCPs, all simulations project a significant decrease for HDD, especially over Scandinavia and European Russia, and an increase of CDD which peaks over the Mediterranean region and the Balkans. Overall, degree‐day trends do not show remarkable differences if population weighting is applied. If a constant population scenario is considered, the decrease in HDD will outbalance the increase in CDD in the 21st century over most of Europe. Thus the related energy demand (expressed as Energy Degree‐days, EDD) is expected to decrease. If, however, population projections over the 21st century are included in the calculations, it is shown that despite the persisting warming, EDD will increase over northern Europe, the Baltic countries, Great Britain, Ireland, Benelux, the Alps, Spain, and Cyprus, resulting in an overall increase in EDD over Europe.
Using 11 bias‐adjusted EURO‐CORDEX simulations, we computed heating (HDD) and cooling degree‐days (CDD) for 1981–2100 over Europe under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A significant projected decrease in HDD under both scenarios is found, especially over Fennoscandia and Russia; the increase of CDD will peak over Mediterranean and Balkans. Under a constant population scenario, energy degree‐days (EDD) are expected to decrease almost over the entire Europe. Using population projections, EDD will increase over northern Europe, the Baltic Republics, the British Isles, Benelux, the Alps, Spain, and Cyprus. Ensemble mean linear trends of HDD/year (left) and CDD/year (right) under RCP4.5 (top) and RCP8.5 (bottom). Over grey areas, fewer than 7 out of 11 simulations projected a significant trend at 95%. Population‐weighting is not applied in this map.
The “natural GMS laboratory” (granulometry-morphometry-situmetry) is located within the Variscan Basement in SE Germany (Fichtelgebirge Mts.), which is uplifted relative to its Permo-Mesozoic ...foreland along a deep-seated lineamentary fault zone. This transitional study area is crossed by straight to low drainage systems in the basement, turning meandering channel systems into high sinuosity when entering the foreland. Due to its good geological coverage, the entire region is subjected to an advanced-level terrain analysis and completed with a sedimentological study focusing on the GMS tool. Unlike many applications in the past, the three components of the GMS tool that are of almost equal value ought to be used in combination and not as stand-alone procedures so as to be integrated into other near-surface geoscientific methods, e.g., sediment petrography. The strong points of granulometry of coarse-grained/gravel-sized sediments are its extension into the smaller sand and clay grain size intervals using the sorting, mean and/or median values for an environmental analysis. Morphometry can be linked to the compositional geosciences, e.g., mineralogy and geochemistry. The grain shape is intimately connected with the lithology, providing options from triaxial measuring of the lithoclast to the digital image analysis. It is a favorable tool to supplement the provenance of lithoclasts. Situmetry is the key element of hydrodynamic research and directly builds upon its sister methods. Its applications and numerical approaches are useful for the identification and quantification of physical land-forming processes. It is the fan sharpness and the orientation of lithoclasts relative to the direction of the talweg and in relation cross-sectional valley features that integrate the GMS tool into geological and geomorphological mapping, both of which result in a digital terrain model. Horizontal rose diagrams are useful for the upper reaches of drainage systems, be they of alluvial or non-alluvial types, and vertical ones for alluvial channels in the distal and proximal foreland where stacked patterns of depositional terraces are of widespread occurrence. In general, the GMS tool can be applied to sedimentological, geomorphological, petrographic and tectonic objects in basements and foreland basins; in applied geosciences, it is suitable for the identification of mineral resources and of areas vulnerable to geohazards, and in genetic geosciences for the discrimination of supergene chemical and physical depositional and land-forming processes.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published in 2007 presents the most complete and authoritative assessment of the status of scientific knowledge on all aspects of climate change. This paper ...presents an updated assessment of the risks from anthropogenic climate change, based on a comprehensive review of the pertinent scientific literature published since finalisation of the AR4. Many risks are now assessed as stronger than in the AR4, including the risk of large sea-level rise already in the current century, the amplification of global warming due to biological and geological carbon-cycle feedbacks, a large magnitude of “committed warming” currently concealed by a strong aerosol mask, substantial increases in climate variability and extreme weather events, and the risks to marine ecosystems from climate change and ocean acidification. Some topics remain the subject of intense scientific debate, such as past and future changes in tropical cyclone activity and the risk of large-scale Amazon forest dieback. The rise in greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations has accelerated recently, and it is expected to accelerate further in the absence of targeted policy interventions. Taken together, these findings point to an increased urgency of implementing mitigation policies as well as comprehensive and equitable adaptation policies.
The projected global temperature increase in the 21st century is expected to have consequences on energy consumption due to increase (decrease) in energy demand to cool (heat) the built environments. ...Such increase (decrease) also depends on the number of end users for such energy, thus it is crucial to include population into the analyses. This study presents population‐weighted (w) cooling (CDD), heating (HDD), and energy (EDD) degree‐day projections at global, regional, and local scales for the 21st century. We used a large ensemble of high‐resolution (0.44°) climate simulations from the COordinated Regional‐climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) to compute degree‐days for baseline (1981–2010) and global warming levels (GWLs from 1.5°C to 4°C), based on two representative concentration pathways. We used population projections from the NASA‐SEDAC datasets, driven by five socio‐economic scenarios (SSPs). The progressive increase in CDD outbalances the decrease in HDD in Central and South America, Africa, and Oceania and the opposite situation is likely to occur in North America, Europe, and Asia; at global scale, they are balanced. However, if results are weighted according to population, the increase in wCDD outbalances the decrease in wHDD almost everywhere for most GWLs and SSPs. Few regions show a decreasing tendency in wEDD at high GWLs for all SSPs: central Europe, northwestern, northeastern, and eastern Asia. Globally, wEDD are likely to double at 2°C compared to 1981–2010 independently of the SSP. Under the worst‐case scenario (SSP3), at 4°C wCDD are approximately 380% higher and wHDD approximately 30% lower than in the recent past, leading to an increase in wEDD close to 300%.
Change in average annual total of energy degree‐days between 1981–2010 and four global warming levels (1.5°C–4°C) without (above) and with (below) population weighting. The four panels with population weighting represent the highest GWL allowed by the corresponding socio‐economic scenario (SSP). Regarding GWL 4°C, using the SSP5 instead of SSP3 leads to similar spatial patterns, with the exception of a general increase in North America and Scandinavia.
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