Abstract
We investigate the drivers of global and regional changes in the potential for photovoltaic (PV) power production from the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (1985–2014) and until the end ...of the century (2071–2100), based on output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6). Our assessment separates regional contributions from changes in clouds, humidity, temperature, aerosols, and wind speed to the changes in PV power potentials for the first time. Present-day PV power potentials are adversely affected by anthropogenic aerosols compared to the pre-industrial, with a global decrease of the PV power potential by −1.3%. Our results highlight a globally averaged decrease in future PV power potentials primarily driven by temperature and humidity increases by −1.2% to more than −3.5%, depending on the scenario. Regionally different contributions of changes in clouds and aerosols cause heterogeneous spatial patterns in changes of PV potentials, with typically stronger (weaker) influences from clouds (aerosols) in SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6. Our results imply that the uncertain response of clouds to warming and aerosol effects are hurdles in quantifying changes in the regional potentials for PV power production.
An analysis of aeolian dust in climate models Evan, Amato T.; Flamant, Cyrille; Fiedler, Stephanie ...
Geophysical research letters,
28 August 2014, Volume:
41, Issue:
16
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Aeolian dust is a key aspect of the climate system. Dust can modify the Earth's energy budget, provide long‐range transport of nutrients, and influence land surface processes via erosion. ...Consequently, effective modeling of the climate system, particularly at regional scales, requires a reasonably accurate representation of dust emission, transport, and deposition. Here we evaluate African dust in 23 state‐of‐the‐art global climate models used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that all models fail to reproduce basic aspects of dust emission and transport over the second half of the twentieth century. The models systematically underestimate dust emission, transport, and optical depth, and year‐to‐year changes in these properties bear little resemblance to observations. These findings cast doubt on the ability of these models to simulate the regional climate and the response of African dust to future climate change.
Key Points
CMIP5 models underestimate African dust emission and transportThe dust size distribution is biased toward small particles in CMIP5 modelsCMIP5 models do not represent coupled processes that involve African dust
Observed El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak ...El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock‐in into an extreme EP El Niño‐dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock‐in into a weak El Niño‐dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system.
Plain Language Summary
El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability with far‐reaching impacts. El Niños, the warm events, occur in different flavors. In particular extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events are associated with heavy precipitation events and extreme droughts, thus cause large socio‐economic impacts in the Pacific region and beyond. In the observational record, they are quite rare so far. Here we present experiments of one climate model, which suggests that in a warmer climate ENSO may lock‐in in a different state, in which nearly each El Niño is an extreme EP El Niño. On the other hand in a colder climate ENSO may lock‐in in a state with nearly no extreme EP El Niños. In both climates this would have huge consequences for the socio‐economic impacts of ENSO. Against this background we raise the discussion if ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system.
Key Points
El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may be a tipping element in the climate system as its characteristics can be very different under colder or warmer mean climates
In a warmer climate, ENSO can lock‐in into a state with high variability and nearly each El Niño is an extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño
More extreme EP El Niño events would strongly increase the socio‐economic impacts of ENSO
MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play important roles in many developmental processes, including cell differentiation and apoptosis. Transition of proliferative ovarian granulosa cells to terminally differentiated ...luteal cells in response to the ovulatory surge of luteinizing hormone (LH) involves rapid and pronounced changes in cellular morphology and function. MicroRNA 21 (miR-21, official symbol Mir21) is one of three highly LH-induced miRNAs in murine granulosa cells, and here we examine the function and temporal expression of Mir21 within granulosa cells as they transition to luteal cells. Granulosa cells were transfected with blocking (2'-O-methyl) and locked nucleic acid (LNA-21) oligonucleotides, and mature Mir21 expression decreased to one ninth and one twenty-seventh of its basal expression, respectively. LNA-21 depletion of Mir21 activity in cultured granulosa cells induced apoptosis. In vivo, follicular granulosa cells exhibit a decrease in cleaved caspase 3, a hallmark of apoptosis, 6 h after the LH/human chorionic gonadotropin surge, coincident with the highest expression of mature Mir21. To examine whether Mir21 is involved in regulation of apoptosis in vivo, mice were treated with a phospho thioate-modified LNA-21 oligonucleotide, and granulosa cell apoptosis was examined. Apoptosis increased in LNA-21-treated ovaries, and ovulation rate decreased in LNA-21-treated ovaries, compared with their contralateral controls. We have examined a number of Mir21 apoptotic target transcripts identified in other systems; currently, none of these appear to play a role in the induction of ovarian granulosa cell apoptosis. This study is the first to implicate the antiapoptotic Mir21 (an oncogenic miRNA) as playing a clear physiologic role in normal tissue function.
The chromosome 16p13.11 heterozygous deletion is associated with a diverse array of neuropsychiatric disorders including intellectual disabilities, autism, schizophrenia, epilepsy and ...attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. However the clinical significance of its reciprocal duplication is not clearly defined yet. We evaluated 1645 consecutive pediatric patients with various developmental disorders by high-resolution microarray-based comparative genomic hybridization and identified four deletions and eight duplications within the 16p13.11 region, representing ∼0.73% (12/1645) of the patients analyzed. Recurrent clinical features in these patients include mental retardation/intellectual disability, autism, seizure, dysmorphic feature or multiple congenital anomalies. Our data expand the spectrum of the clinical findings in patients with these genomic abnormalities and provide further support for the pathogenic involvement of this duplication in patients who carry them.
This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean ...acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
Transgression of planetary boundaries by human activities have now brought humanity well beyond a “safe operating space.”
Abstract
The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared ...to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.
MicroRNAs (miRNAs) mediate posttranscriptional gene regulation by binding to the 3' untranslated region of messenger RNAs to either inhibit or enhance translation. The extent and hormonal regulation ...of miRNA expression by ovarian granulosa cells and their role in ovulation and luteinization is unknown. In the present study, miRNA array analysis was used to identify 212 mature miRNAs as expressed and 13 as differentially expressed in periovulatory granulosa cells collected before and after an ovulatory dose of hCG. Two miRNAs, Mirn132 and Mirn212 (also known as miR-132 and miR-212), were found to be highly upregulated following LH/hCG induction and were further analyzed. In vivo and in vitro temporal expression analysis by quantitative RT-PCR confirmed that LH/hCG and cAMP, respectively, increased transcription of the precursor transcript as well as the mature miRNAs. Locked nucleic acid oligonucleotides complementary to Mirn132 and Mirn212 were shown to block cAMP-mediated mature miRNA expression and function. Computational analyses indicated that 77 putative mRNA targets of Mirn132 and Mirn212 were expressed in ovarian granulosa cells. Furthermore, upon knockdown of Mirn132 and Mirn212, a known target of Mirn132, C-terminal binding protein 1, showed decreased protein levels but no change in mRNA levels. The following studies are the first to describe the extent of miRNA expression within ovarian granulosa cells and the first to demonstrate that LH/hCG regulates the expression of select miRNAs, which affect posttranscriptional gene regulation within these cells.
Abstract
Weather causes extremes in photovoltaic and wind power production. Here we present a comprehensive climatology of anomalies in photovoltaic and wind power production associated with weather ...patterns in Europe considering the 2019 and potential 2050 installations, and hourly to ten-day events. To that end, we performed kilometer-scale numerical simulations of hourly power production for 23 years and paired the output with a weather classification which allows a detailed assessment of weather-driven spatio-temporal production anomalies. Our results highlight the dependency of low-power production events on the installed capacities and the event duration. South-shifted Westerlies (Anticyclonic South-Easterlies) are associated with the lowest hourly (ten-day) extremes for the 2050 (both) installations. Regional power production anomalies can differ from the ones in the European mean. Our findings suggest that weather patterns can serve as indicators for expected photovoltaic and wind power production anomalies and may be useful for early warnings in the energy sector.
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