We present observational evidence of a significant increase in Salinity Maximum intrusions in the Northeast US Shelf waters in the years following 2000. This increase is subsequent to and influenced ...by a previously observed regime-shift in the annual formation rate for Gulf Stream Warm Core Rings, which are relatively more saline than the shelf waters. Specifically, mid-depth salinity maximum intrusions, a cross-shelf exchange process, has shown a quadrupling in frequency on the shelf after the year 2000. This increase in intrusion frequency can be linked to a similar increase in Warm Core Ring occupancy footprint along the offshore edge of the shelf-break which has greatly increased the abundance of warm salty water within the Slope Sea. The increased ring occupancy footprint along the shelf follows from the near doubling in annual Warm Core Ring formation rate from the Gulf Stream. The increased occurrence of intrusions is likely driven by a combination of a larger number of rings in the slope sea and the northward shift in the GS position which may lead to more interactions between rings and the shelf topography. These results have significant implications for interpreting temporal changes in the shelf ecosystem from the standpoint of both larval recruitment as well as habitability for various important commercial species.
The meridional coherence, connectivity, and regional inhomogeneity in long‐term sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope from 1982–2018 are ...investigated using observational data sets. A meridionally concurrent large SST warming trend is identified as the dominant signal over the length of the continental shelf and slope between Cape Hatteras in North Carolina and Cape Chidley, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The linear trends are 0.37 ± 0.06 and 0.39 ± 0.06 °C/decade for the shelf and slope regions, respectively. These meridionally averaged SST time series over the shelf and slope are consistent with each other and across multiple longer observational data sets with records dating back to 1900. The coherence between the long‐term meridionally averaged time series over the shelf and slope and basin‐wide averaged SST in the North Atlantic implies approximately two thirds of the warming trend during 1982–2018 may be attributed to natural climate variability and the rest to externally forced change including anthropogenic warming.
Plain Language Summary
This study investigates long‐term changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) since 1982 over the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope. In particular, we focus on the changes consistently found from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, United States, to Cape Chidley, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The SST warming rates concurrently found over this large latitudinal range are 0.37 ± 0.06 and 0.39 ± 0.06 °C/decade for the shelf and slope regions, respectively. Analysis indicates that approximately two thirds of the warming trend during 1982–2018 may be attributed to natural climate variability and the rest to externally forced change including anthropogenic warming. Our findings are further confirmed by comparing with multiple other observational data sets.
Key Points
Meridionally coherent surface warming is observed over the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope
The linear trends in SST exhibit distinct spatial maxima in the slope region off Georges Bank and Cape Hatteras
Long‐term variations in the meridional means of SST are highly correlated with basin‐averaged values
Black sea bass (Centropristis striata) migrations are believed to play a role in overwinter survival and connectivity between juvenile and adult populations. This study investigated oceanographic ...drivers of winter habitat choice and regional differences between populations of juvenile and adult black sea bass. Trends in cohort strength, as a result of juvenile survival, were also identified. Oceanographic and fisheries survey data were analyzed using generalized additive models. Among the oceanographic variables investigated, salinity was the main driver in habitat selection with an optimal range of 33-35 practical salinity units (PSU) for both juveniles and adults. Preferred temperature ranges varied between juveniles and adults, but held a similar minimum preference of >8°C. Salinity and temperature ranges also differed by regions north and south of Hudson Canyon. Shelf water volume had less of an effect than temperature or salinity, but showed an overall negative relationship with survey catch. The effect of winter conditions on juvenile abundance was also observed across state and federal survey index trends. A lack of correlation observed among surveys in the fall paired with a strong correlation in the spring identifies the winter period as a factor determining year-class strength of new recruits to the population. A rank order analysis of spring indices identified three of the largest year classes occurring during years with reduced shelf water volumes, warmer winter shelf waters, and a 34 PSU isohaline aligned farther inshore. While greater catches of black sea bass in the northwest Atlantic Ocean remain south of Hudson Canyon, the species' range has expanded north in recent years.
Temporal variation in demographic rates has been observed in various fish populations and environmental influences are likely to be a key factor. Here we show how it can be important to combine ...state-space models for environmental covariates and demographic rates when evaluating effects of the former on the latter. In an application to Georges Bank Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), we show how estimates of the environmental covariate can be aliased with unknown temporal variation in growth rates and that stronger and opposite effects of the environment can incorrectly be found when the autocorrelation in the growth rate is not separately modeled. The perception of effects on maturity also depends on whether an appropriate distribution is considered for the maturity observations. Bottom temperature did not improve prediction of maturity parameters, but temporal variation driven by other sources did. Both bottom temperature and temporal variation improved performance of growth models. Finally, we found growth and maturity estimation to be important contributors to uncertainty of spawning biomass and biological reference points when incorporated into a state-space assessment model.
Climate change and fishing can have major impacts on the distribution of natural marine resources. Climate change alters the distribution of suitable habitat, forcing organisms to shift their range ...or attempt to survive under suboptimal conditions. Fishing reduces the abundance of marine populations and truncates their age structure leading to range contractions or shifts. Along the east coast of the United States, there have been major changes in fish populations due to the impacts of fishing and subsequent regulations, as well as changes in the climate. Black sea bass, scup, summer flounder, and winter flounder are important commercial and recreational species, which utilize inshore and offshore waters on the northeast shelf. We examined the distributions of the four species with the Northeast Fisheries Science Center trawl surveys to determine if the along-shelf centres of biomass had changed over time and if the changes were attributed to changes in temperature or fishing pressure through changes in abundance and length structure. Black sea bass, scup, and summer flounder exhibited significant poleward shifts in distributions in at least one season while the Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight stock of winter flounder did not shift. Generalized additive modelling indicated that the changes in the centres of biomass for black sea bass and scup in spring were related to climate, while the change in the distribution of summer flounder was largely attributed to a decrease in fishing pressure and an expansion of the length-age structure. While the changes in ocean temperatures will have major impacts on the distribution of marine taxa, the effects of fishing can be of equivalent magnitude and on a more immediate time scale. It is important for management to take all factors into consideration when developing regulations for natural marine resources.
Abstract
The mean structure and time-dependent behavior of the shelfbreak jet along the southern Beaufort Sea, and its ability to transport properties into the basin interior via eddies are explored ...using high-resolution mooring data and an idealized numerical model. The analysis focuses on springtime, when weakly stratified winter-transformed Pacific water is being advected out of the Chukchi Sea. When winds are weak, the observed jet is bottom trapped with a low potential vorticity core and has maximum mean velocities of O(25 cm s−1) and an eastward transport of 0.42 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). Despite the absence of winds, the current is highly time dependent, with relative vorticity and twisting vorticity often important components of the Ertel potential vorticity. An idealized primitive equation model forced by dense, weakly stratified waters flowing off a shelf produces a mean middepth boundary current similar in structure to that observed at the mooring site. The model boundary current is also highly variable, and produces numerous strong, small anticyclonic eddies that transport the shelf water into the basin interior. Analysis of the energy conversion terms in both the mooring data and the numerical model indicates that the eddies are formed via baroclinic instability of the boundary current. The structure of the eddies in the basin interior compares well with observations from drifting ice platforms. The results suggest that eddies shed from the shelfbreak jet contribute significantly to the offshore flux of heat, salt, and other properties, and are likely important for the ventilation of the halocline in the western Arctic Ocean. Interaction with an anticyclonic basin-scale circulation, meant to represent the Beaufort gyre, enhances the offshore transport of shelf water and results in a loss of mass transport from the shelfbreak jet.
A new hydrographic climatology has been created for the continental shelf region, extending from the Labrador shelf to the Mid-Atlantic Bight. The 0.2-degree climatology combines all available ...observations of surface and bottom temperature and salinity collected between 1950 and 2010 along with the location, depth and date of these measurements. While climatological studies of surface and bottom temperature and salinity have been presented previously for various regions along the Canadian and U.S. shelves, studies also suggest that all these regions are part of one coherent system. This study focuses on the coherent structure of the mean seasonal cycle of surface and bottom temperature and salinity and its variation along the shelf and upper slope. The seasonal cycle of surface temperature is mainly driven by the surface heat flux and exhibits strong dependency on latitude (r≈−0.9). The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of bottom temperature is rather dependent on the depth, while the spatial distribution of bottom temperature is correlated with latitude. The seasonal cycle of surface salinity is influenced by several components, such as sea-ice on the northern shelves and river discharge in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The bottom salinity exhibits no clear seasonal cycle, but its spatial distribution is highly correlated with bathymetry, thus Slope Water and its intrusion on the shelf can be identified by its relatively high salinity compared to shallow, fresher shelf water. Two different regimes can be identified, especially on the shelf, separated by the Laurentian Channel: advection influences the phasing of the seasonal cycle of surface salinity and bottom temperature to the north, while in the southern region, river runoff and air-sea heat flux forcing are dominant, especially over the shallower bathymetry.
•A hydrographic climatology is created for 1950–2010 for Northwest Atlantic Shelf.•Two different regimes can be identified, separated by the Laurentian Channel.•SST seasonal cycle is driven by surface heat flux and shows latitudinal dependancy.•SSS is driven by southward advection in the north and by river runoff in the south.•Bottom temperature is correlated to latitude, and bottom salinity, to bathymetry.
Many studies illustrate variable patterns in individual species distribution shifts in response to changing temperature. However, an assemblage, a group of species that shares a common environmental ...niche, will likely exhibit similar responses to climate changes, and these community-level responses may have significant implications for ecosystem function. Therefore, we examine the relationship between observed shifts of species in assemblages and regional climate velocity (i.e., the rate and direction of change of temperature isotherms). The assemblages are defined in two sub-regions of the U.S. Northeast Shelf that have heterogeneous oceanography and bathymetry using four decades of bottom trawl survey data and we explore temporal changes in distribution, spatial range extent, thermal habitat area, and biomass, within assemblages. These sub-regional analyses allow the dissection of the relative roles of regional climate velocity and local physiography in shaping observed distribution shifts. We find that assemblages of species associated with shallower, warmer waters tend to shift west-southwest and to shallower waters over time, possibly towards cooler temperatures in the semi-enclosed Gulf of Maine, while species assemblages associated with relatively cooler and deeper waters shift deeper, but with little latitudinal change. Conversely, species assemblages associated with warmer and shallower water on the broad, shallow continental shelf from the Mid-Atlantic Bight to Georges Bank shift strongly northeast along latitudinal gradients with little change in depth. Shifts in depth among the southern species associated with deeper and cooler waters are more variable, although predominantly shifts are toward deeper waters. In addition, spatial expansion and contraction of species assemblages in each region corresponds to the area of suitable thermal habitat, but is inversely related to assemblage biomass. This suggests that assemblage distribution shifts in conjunction with expansion or contraction of thermal habitat acts to compress or stretch marine species assemblages, which may respectively amplify or dilute species interactions to an extent that is rarely considered. Overall, regional differences in climate change effects on the movement and extent of species assemblages hold important implications for management, mitigation, and adaptation on the U.S. Northeast Shelf.
Although the continental shelf and slope south of New England have been the subject of recent studies that address decadal-scale warming and interannual variability of water mass properties, it is ...not well understood how these changes affect shelf-break exchange processes. In recent years, observations of anomalous shelf and slope conditions obtained from the Ocean Observatories Initiative Pioneer Array and other regional observing programs suggest that onshore intrusions of warm, salty waters are becoming more prevalent. Mean cross-shelf transects constructed from Pioneer Array glider observations collected from April 2014 through December 2016 indicate that slope waters have been warmer and saltier. We examine shelf-break exchange events and anomalous onshore intrusions of warm, salty water associated with warm core rings located near the shelf break in spring 2014 and winter 2017 using observations from the Pioneer Array and other sources. We also describe an additional cross-shelf intrusion of ring water in September 2014 to demonstrate that the occurrence of high-salinity waters extending across the continental shelf is rare. Observations from the Pioneer Array and other sources show warm core ring and Gulf Stream water masses intrude onto the continental shelf more frequently and penetrate further onshore than in previous decades.
Abstract
Twelve years of historical hydrographic data, spanning the period 1990–2001, are analyzed to examine the along-stream evolution of the western North Atlantic Ocean shelfbreak front and ...current, following its path between the west coast of Greenland and the Middle Atlantic Bight. Over 700 synoptic sections are used to construct a mean three-dimensional description of the summer shelfbreak front and to quantify the along-stream evolution in properties, including frontal strength and grounding position. Results show that there are actually two fronts in the northern part of the domain—a shallow front located near the shelf break and a deeper front centered in the core of Irminger Water over the upper slope. The properties of the deeper Irminger front erode gradually to the south, and the front disappears entirely near the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The shallow shelfbreak front is identifiable throughout the domain, and its properties exhibit large variations from north to south, with the largest changes occurring near the Tail of the Grand Banks. Despite these structural changes, and large variations in topography, the foot of the shelfbreak front remains within 20 km of the shelf break. The hydrographic sections are also used to examine the evolution of the baroclinic velocity field and its associated volume transport. The baroclinic velocity structure consists of a single velocity core that is stronger and penetrates deeper where the Irminger front is present. The baroclinic volume transport decreases by equal amounts at the southern end of the Labrador Shelf and at the Tail of the Grand Banks. Overall, the results suggest that the Grand Banks is a geographically critical location in the North Atlantic shelfbreak system.
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