A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active." Building on earlier studies in this series in which we describe the ...methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multiday periods. A novel analysis is developed to evaluate forecasting success in the context of catching the first event of flare-active periods and, conversely, correctly predicting declining flare activity. We demonstrate these evaluation methods graphically and quantitatively as they provide both quick comparative evaluations and options for detailed analysis. For the testing interval 2016-2017, we determine the relative frequency distribution of two-day dichotomous forecast outcomes for three different event histories (i.e., event/event, no-event/event, and event/no-event) and use it to highlight performance differences between forecasting methods. A trend is identified across all forecasting methods that a high/low forecast probability on day 1 remains high/low on day 2, even though flaring activity is transitioning. For M-class and larger flares, we find that explicitly including persistence or prior flare history in computing forecasts helps to improve overall forecast performance. It is also found that using magnetic/modern data leads to improvement in catching the first-event/first-no-event transitions. Finally, 15% of major (i.e., M-class or above) flare days over the testing interval were effectively missed due to a lack of observations from instruments away from the Earth-Sun line.
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our solar system. Their impulsive and often drastic radiative increases, particularly at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate ...solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology of Paper I (Barnes et al. 2016), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to, for the first time, directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with the focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the "no-skill" level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series, we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in Paper IV (Park et al. 2019). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks and today's performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared.
Contamination encountered on nuclear sites includes radionuclides as well as a range of non-radioactive co-contaminants, often in low-permeability substrates such as concretes or clays. However, many ...commercial remediation techniques are ineffective in these substrates. By contrast, electrokinetic remediation (EKR), where an electric current is applied to remove contaminants from the treated media, retains high removal efficiencies in low permeability substrates. Here, we evaluate recent developments in EKR for the removal of radionuclides in contaminated substrates, including caesium, uranium and others, and the current benefits and limitations of this technology. Further, we assess the present state of EKR for nuclear site applications using real-world examples, and outline key areas for future application.
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•Electrokinetic remediation (EKR) is effective at nuclear sites.•Moving from laboratory to pilot and site-scale.•Site-specific EKR models more applicable than one-size-fits-all.•EKR plus bio-/phyto-remediation and grouting technologies most promising.•Sustainability assessment for EKR at nuclear sites urgently needed.
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•Hydrothermal alteration of magmatic pyrrhotite-pentlandite-chalcopyrite quantified.•Alteration to pyrite-millerite-chalcopyrite involves large mass losses up to 90%.•Fe, S lost to ...fluid first, then Ni, Cu and Pd all mobilised.•Fluids produced may be a source of metals for enigmatic hydrothermal Ni, PGE deposits.•Implicationd for sulfide transformation and metal transfer in ore systems.
Magmatic Ni-Cu-PGE sulfide assemblages are almost ubiquitously comprised of pyrrhotite-pentlandite-chalcopyrite(-pyrite). Sulfide alteration is common during syn- or post-magmatic fluid interaction, usually replacing sulfides with amphiboles or serpentine. However, some are altered to a low temperature (<200°C) hydrothermal assemblage of pyrite-millerite-chalcopyrite (PMC). An example is the Ni-Cu-PGE mineralisation in the Grasvally-Norite-Pyroxenite-Anorthosite (GNPA) Member, northern Bushveld Complex, which displays a continuum of mineralogical styles formed through progressive alteration: Style 1 primary pyrrhotite-pentlandite-chalcopyrite; which is altered to Style 2 pyrrhotite-pyrite-pentlandite-chalcopyrite; Style 3 pyrite-pentlandite-chalcopyrite; Style 4 pyrite-pentlandite-millerite-chalcopyrite; and Style 5 pyrite-millerite-chalcopyrite-cubanite. Modelling using CHILLER confirms this mineralogical sequence is thermodynamically possible at ∼200°C. Quantitative characterisation using automated Energy-Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy mapping alongside in situ laser ablation analyses determined mineral proportions, major and trace element concentrations and deportments in each style. The early loss of pyrrhotite removes over half of the bulk Fe and S during the initial stages of PMC alteration, increasing Cu, Ni and PGE tenors of the remaining sulfides significantly. As water–rock interaction progresses, pyrrhotite is replaced by pyrite and pentlandite by millerite, with concurrent losses in Fe, S and Ni. Copper is lost throughout the alteration, and is most pronounced in the more advanced stages. The fluids responsible were most likely acidic and oxidised, with metals mobilised as chloride complexes. Using Rh as an immobile normalising element, the overall mass loss in the most altered samples is calculated to be up to 90%, consistent with textural relationships that indicate 40–90% volume loss from Styles 2–5, with sulfides replaced by secondary silicates, including phlogopite, quartz, chlorite, pyroxenes and minor amphiboles. Magnetite is not a significant alteration product and thus Fe is mobilised, or incorporated into silicates. Most trace elements present in the magmatic sulfide (the IPGE, Rh and Bi) remain in the sulfide phases, and are effectively transferred to pyrite during PMC alteration, except Pd, which remains in pentlandite, and is liberated from the sulfide assemblage when pentlandite disappears. Selenium tenors increase slightly with alteration, demonstrating that alteration decreases S/Se ratios. The significant mobilisation of Ni, Cu and Pd during PMC alteration produces fluids enriched in these elements that may represent a metal source for a number of enigmatic hydrothermal Ni deposits such as Avebury, Enterprise and Talvivaara, whose metal sources remain speculative. The PMC alteration of the GNPA Member may be specifically a source for the nearby Waterberg hydrothermal Pt deposit. Furthermore, this study has implications not only for magmatic ore deposits, but also for the general implications of sulfide transformation and metal transfer in ore systems in general.
The Breast Reconstruction Evaluation of Acellular Dermal Matrix as a Sling Trial (BREASTrial) is a blinded, randomized trial comparing the outcomes of tissue expander breast reconstruction using ...AlloDerm or DermaMatrix. In this final stage of the trial, outcomes 3 months to 2 years after definitive reconstruction are reported along with patient satisfaction data.
A randomized trial was conducted to compare complication rates between groups of patients who underwent reconstruction with AlloDerm and DermaMatrix. Regression models were used to analyze the impact of matrix type, age, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and reconstructive type on complication rates. Premastectomy and postmastectomy questionnaires were used to assess patient satisfaction and were also analyzed using regression models.
Of the 128 patients (199 breasts) who were randomized in the trial, 108 patients (167 breasts) were available for analysis in stage III. There was no difference in the overall complication rates between the AlloDerm and DermaMatrix groups (6% versus 13.2%; P = 0.3) or the severity of those complications ( P = 0.7). Obesity was a positive predictor for complications, regardless of reconstruction group ( P = 0.02). Patient satisfaction was positive overall and did not grossly vary between AlloDerm and DermaMatrix groups.
Findings from the BREASTrial conclude that AlloDerm and DermaMatrix exhibit similar histologic and clinical outcomes. Patient satisfaction is also similar between matrices. Obesity is a predictor of complications, and acellular dermal matrices should be used with caution in these patients. As the largest head-to-head trial comparing two acellular dermal matrices, the BREASTrial contributes to the fund of knowledge regarding acellular dermal matrix supplementation in breast reconstruction.
Therapeutic, II.
A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (2017 October 31-November 2), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental ...Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today's operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series, in Paper II we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper, we focus on the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: (1) appears to improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human "forecaster in the loop"; (2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; (3) may benefit from long-term statistics but mostly when then combined with modern data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this present work, in Paper IV (Park et al. 2019) we will present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers, we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive methodologies.
The Breast Reconstruction Evaluation of Acellular Dermal Matrix as a Sling Trial is a single-center, blinded, prospective, randomized, controlled trial established to compare outcomes using two ...popular types of acellular dermal matrices, AlloDerm and DermaMatrix, in tissue expander breast reconstruction. This study used the acellular dermal matrix biopsy specimens from the trial to evaluate how adjuvant therapy influences inflammation, neovascularization, and capsule formation of the acellular dermal matrix.
Punch biopsy specimens were taken at the time of expander exchange and were analyzed by a blinded pathologist. The inflammatory response was quantified by the number of fibroblasts, giant cells, and lymphocytes. Neovascularization and capsule formation were similarly quantified by the number of new capillaries and capsule presence and thickness, respectively.
Histology specimens were collected from 109 patients (170 breasts). In the absence of adjuvant therapy, there was no significant difference between AlloDerm and DermaMatrix in terms of inflammation, neovascularization, or capsule thickness. Both acellular dermal matrices showed a significant decrease in inflammation and neovascularization with adjuvant therapy. When chemotherapy and radiation therapy were used, the decrease in inflammation was greatest for the group reconstructed with DermaMatrix (p < 0.039).
Adjuvant therapy influences the inflammatory response, neovascularization, and capsule formation in both acellular dermal matrices. Adjuvant therapy has a protective effect on the inflammatory response toward both acellular dermal matrices in breast reconstruction. In the setting of chemotherapy and radiation therapy, DermaMatrix produced the greatest reduction in inflammation.
Therapeutic, II.
Whereas the infant gut microbiome is the subject of intense study, relatively little is known regarding the nares microbiome in newborns and during early life. This study aimed to survey the typical ...composition and diversity of human anterior nare microflora for developing infants over time, and to explore how these correlate to their primary caregivers. Single nare swabs were collected at five time points over a one-year period for each subject from infant-caregiver pairs. Our study comprised of 50 infants (recruited at 2 weeks, post delivery) and their 50 primary caregivers. Applying the chaperonin-60 (cpn60) universal target (UT) amplicon as our molecular barcoding marker to census survey the microbial communities, we longitudinally surveyed infant nares microbiota at 5 time points over the course of the first year of life. The inter- and intra-subject diversity was catalogued and compared, both longitudinally and relative to their adult primary caregivers. Although within-subject variability over time and inter-subject variability were both observed, the assessment detected only one or two predominant genera for individual infant samples, belonging mainly to phyla Actinobacteria, Firmicutes, and Proteobacteria. Consistent with previously observed microbial population dynamics in other body sites, the diversity of nares microflora increased over the first year of life and infants showed differential operational taxonomic units (OTUs) relative to their matched primary caregiver. The collected evidence also support that both temporal and seasonal changes occur with respect to carriage of potentially pathogenic bacteria (PPBs), which may influence host predisposition to infection. This pilot study surveying paired infant/caregiver nare microbiomes provides novel longitudinal diversity information that is pertinent to better understanding nare microbiome development in infants.
This study evaluated how Apert hand syndactyly presentations and reconstructive techniques influence reconstruction outcomes. All cases at a major paediatric hospital between 2007 and 2022 were ...analysed, including 98 web space reconstructions in 17 patients. Overall, 62% of hands developed complications and 15% required revision surgery. Upton hand type was significantly associated with postoperative complication incidence, specifically including range-of-motion deficits, flexion contracture, web creep and revision surgery. More severe syndactylies may benefit from additional measures to reduce complications. Rectangular commissural flaps showed 1.9 times greater complication risk than interdigitating triangular flaps, including 11.2 times greater risk of web creep. Zigzag volar finger flaps showed 1.8 times greater complication risk than straight-line incisions, including 3.8 times greater risk of web creep. Our study showed that interdigitating triangular commissural flaps and straight-line volar finger incisions are preferable to rectangular commissural and zigzag finger flaps in most cases of Apert hand syndactyly to minimize complications.
Level of evidence
III
The Streptococcus Anginosus Group (SAG) represents three closely related species of the viridans group streptococci recognized as commensal bacteria of the oral, gastrointestinal and urogenital ...tracts. The SAG also cause severe invasive infections, and are pathogens during cystic fibrosis (CF) pulmonary exacerbation. Little genomic information or description of virulence mechanisms is currently available for SAG. We conducted intra and inter species whole-genome comparative analyses with 59 publically available Streptococcus genomes and seven in-house closed high quality finished SAG genomes; S. constellatus (3), S. intermedius (2), and S. anginosus (2). For each SAG species, we sequenced at least one numerically dominant strain from CF airways recovered during acute exacerbation and an invasive, non-lung isolate. We also evaluated microevolution that occurred within two isolates that were cultured from one individual one year apart.
The SAG genomes were most closely related to S. gordonii and S. sanguinis, based on shared orthologs and harbor a similar number of proteins within each COG category as other Streptococcus species. Numerous characterized streptococcus virulence factor homologs were identified within the SAG genomes including; adherence, invasion, spreading factors, LPxTG cell wall proteins, and two component histidine kinases known to be involved in virulence gene regulation. Mobile elements, primarily integrative conjugative elements and bacteriophage, account for greater than 10% of the SAG genomes. S. anginosus was the most variable species sequenced in this study, yielding both the smallest and the largest SAG genomes containing multiple genomic rearrangements, insertions and deletions. In contrast, within the S. constellatus and S. intermedius species, there was extensive continuous synteny, with only slight differences in genome size between strains. Within S. constellatus we were able to determine important SNPs and changes in VNTR numbers that occurred over the course of one year.
The comparative genomic analysis of the SAG clarifies the phylogenetics of these bacteria and supports the distinct species classification. Numerous potential virulence determinants were identified and provide a foundation for further studies into SAG pathogenesis. Furthermore, the data may be used to enable the development of rapid diagnostic assays and therapeutics for these pathogens.
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