Bayesian analysis of clinical trial data may provide useful information to aid in study interpretation, especially when trial evidence suggests that the benefits of an intervention are uncertain, ...such as in a trial that evaluated early extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) for severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
To demonstrate the potential utility of Bayesian analyses by estimating the posterior probability, under various assumptions, that early ECMO was associated with reduced mortality in patients with very severe ARDS in a randomized clinical trial (RCT).
A post hoc Bayesian analysis of data from an RCT (ECMO to Rescue Lung Injury in Severe ARDS EOLIA) that included 249 patients with very severe ARDS who had been randomized to receive early ECMO (n = 124; mortality at 60 days, 35%) vs initial conventional lung-protective ventilation with the option for rescue ECMO (n = 125, mortality at 60 days, 46%). The trial was designed to detect an absolute risk reduction (ARR) of 20%, relative risk (RR) of 0.67. Statistical prior distributions were specified to represent varying levels of preexisting enthusiasm or skepticism for ECMO and by Bayesian meta-analysis of previously published studies (with downweighting to account for differences and quality between studies). The RR, credible interval (CrI), ARR, and probability of clinically important mortality benefit (varying from RR less than 1 to RR less than 0.67 and ARR from 2% or more to 20% or more) were estimated with Bayesian modeling.
Combining a minimally informative prior distribution with the findings of the EOLIA trial, the posterior probability of RR less than 1 for mortality at 60 days after randomization was 96% (RR, 0.78 95% CrI, 0.56-1.04); the posterior probability of RR less than 0.67 was 18%, the probability of ARR of 2% or more was 92%, and the probability of ARR of 20% or more was 2%. With a moderately enthusiastic prior, equivalent to information from a trial of 264 patients with an RR of 0.78, the estimated RR was 0.78 (95% CrI, 0.63-0.96), the probability of RR less than 1 was 99%, the probability of RR less than 0.67 was 8%, the probability of ARR of 2% or more was 97%, and the probability of ARR of 20% or more was 0%. With a strongly skeptical prior, equivalent to information from a trial of 264 patients with an RR of 1.0, the estimated RR was 0.88 (95% CrI, 0.71-1.09), the probability of RR less than 1 was 88%, the probability of RR less than 0.67 was 0%, the probability of ARR of 2% or more was 78%, and the probability of ARR of 20% or more was 0%. If the prior was informed by previous studies, the estimated RR was 0.71 (95% CrI, 0.55-0.94), the probability of RR less than 1 was 99%, the probability of RR less than 0.67 was 48%, the probability of ARR of 2% or more was 98%, and the probability of ARR of 20% or more was 4%.
Post hoc Bayesian analysis of data from a randomized clinical trial of early extracorporeal membrane oxygenation compared with conventional lung-protective ventilation with the option for rescue extracorporeal membrane oxygenation among patients with very severe acute respiratory distress syndrome provides information about the posterior probability of mortality benefit under a broad set of assumptions that may help inform interpretation of the study findings.
The timing of renal-replacement therapy in critically ill patients who have acute kidney injury but no potentially life-threatening complication directly related to renal failure is a subject of ...debate.
In this multicenter randomized trial, we assigned patients with severe acute kidney injury (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes KDIGO classification, stage 3 stages range from 1 to 3, with higher stages indicating more severe kidney injury) who required mechanical ventilation, catecholamine infusion, or both and did not have a potentially life-threatening complication directly related to renal failure to either an early or a delayed strategy of renal-replacement therapy. With the early strategy, renal-replacement therapy was started immediately after randomization. With the delayed strategy, renal-replacement therapy was initiated if at least one of the following criteria was met: severe hyperkalemia, metabolic acidosis, pulmonary edema, blood urea nitrogen level higher than 112 mg per deciliter, or oliguria for more than 72 hours after randomization. The primary outcome was overall survival at day 60.
A total of 620 patients underwent randomization. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of mortality at day 60 did not differ significantly between the early and delayed strategies; 150 deaths occurred among 311 patients in the early-strategy group (48.5%; 95% confidence interval CI, 42.6 to 53.8), and 153 deaths occurred among 308 patients in the delayed-strategy group (49.7%, 95% CI, 43.8 to 55.0; P=0.79). A total of 151 patients (49%) in the delayed-strategy group did not receive renal-replacement therapy. The rate of catheter-related bloodstream infections was higher in the early-strategy group than in the delayed-strategy group (10% vs. 5%, P=0.03). Diuresis, a marker of improved kidney function, occurred earlier in the delayed-strategy group (P<0.001).
In a trial involving critically ill patients with severe acute kidney injury, we found no significant difference with regard to mortality between an early and a delayed strategy for the initiation of renal-replacement therapy. A delayed strategy averted the need for renal-replacement therapy in an appreciable number of patients. (Funded by the French Ministry of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01932190.).
Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is frequent in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients. In the specific case of patients treated with Veno-Arterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Support ...(VA-ECMO), VAP treatment failures (VAP-TF) have been incompletely investigated.
To investigate the risk factors of treatment failure (VAP-TF) in a large cohort of ICU patients treated with VA-ECMO, we conducted a retrospective study in a Surgical ICU about patients assisted with VA-ECMO between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2014. Diagnosis of VAP was confirmed by a positive quantitative culture of a respiratory sample. VAP-TF was defined as composite of death attributable to pneumonia and relapse within 28 days of the first episode.
In total, 152 patients underwent ECMO support for > 48h. During the VA-ECMO support, 85 (55.9%) patients developed a VAP, for a rate of 60.6 per 1000 ECMO days. The main pathogens identified were Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Enterobacteriaceae. VAP-TF occurred in 37.2% of patients and was associated with an increased 28-day mortality (Hazard Ratio 3.05 1.66; 5.63, P<0.001), and VA-ECMO assistance duration (HR 1.47 1.05-2.05, P = 0.025). Risk factors for VAP-TF were renal replacement therapy (HR 13.05 1.73; 98.56, P = 0.013) and documentation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (HR 2.36 1.04; 5.35, P = 0.04).
VAP in patients treated with VA-ECMO is associated with an increased morbidity and mortality. RRT and infection by Pseudomonas aeruginosa appear as strong risks factors of treatment failure. Further studies seem necessary to precise the best antibiotic management in these patients.
Abstract
Background
Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) was frequently used to treat patients with severe coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19)-associated acute respiratory distress (ARDS) ...during the initial outbreak. Care of COVID-19 patients evolved markedly during the second part of 2020. Our objective was to compare the characteristics and outcomes of patients who received ECMO for severe COVID-19 ARDS before or after July 1, 2020.
Methods
We included consecutive adults diagnosed with COVID-19 in Paris–Sorbonne University Hospital Network ICUs, who received ECMO for severe ARDS until January 28, 2021. Characteristics and survival probabilities over time were estimated during the first and second waves. Pre-ECMO risk factors predicting 90-day mortality were assessed using multivariate Cox regression.
Results
Characteristics of the 88 and 71 patients admitted, respectively, before and after July 1, 2020, were comparable except for older age, more frequent use of dexamethasone (18% vs. 82%), high-flow nasal oxygenation (19% vs. 82%) and/or non-invasive ventilation (7% vs. 37%) after July 1. Respective estimated probabilities (95% confidence intervals) of 90-day mortality were 36% (27–47%) and 48% (37–60%) during the first and the second periods. After adjusting for confounders, probability of 90-day mortality was significantly higher for patients treated after July 1 (HR 2.27, 95% CI 1.02–5.07). ECMO-related complications did not differ between study periods.
Conclusions
90-day mortality of ECMO-supported COVID-19–ARDS patients increased significantly after July 1, 2020, and was no longer comparable to that of non-COVID ECMO-treated patients. Failure of prolonged non-invasive oxygenation strategies before intubation and increased lung damage may partly explain this outcome.
There is little descriptive data on Stenotrophomonas maltophilia hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) in critically ill patients. The optimal modalities of antimicrobial therapy remain to be determined. ...Our objective was to describe the epidemiology and prognostic factors associated with S. maltophilia pneumonia, focusing on antimicrobial therapy.
This nationwide retrospective study included all patients admitted to 25 French mixed intensive care units between 2012 and 2017 with hospital-acquired S. maltophilia HAP during intensive care unit stay. Primary endpoint was time to in-hospital death. Secondary endpoints included microbiologic effectiveness and antimicrobial therapeutic modalities such as delay to appropriate antimicrobial treatment, mono versus combination therapy, and duration of antimicrobial therapy.
Of the 282 patients included, 84% were intubated at S. maltophilia HAP diagnosis for duration of 11 5-18 days. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II was 47 36-63, and the in-hospital mortality was 49.7%. Underlying chronic pulmonary comorbidities were present in 14.1% of cases. Empirical antimicrobial therapy was considered effective on S. maltophilia according to susceptibility patterns in only 30% of cases. Delay to appropriate antimicrobial treatment had, however, no significant impact on the primary endpoint. Survival analysis did not show any benefit from combination antimicrobial therapy (HR = 1.27, 95%CI 0.88; 1.83, p = 0.20) or prolonged antimicrobial therapy for more than 7 days (HR = 1.06, 95%CI 0.6; 1.86, p = 0.84). No differences were noted in in-hospital death irrespective of an appropriate and timely empiric antimicrobial therapy between mono- versus polymicrobial S. maltophilia HAP (p = 0.273). The duration of ventilation prior to S. maltophilia HAP diagnosis and ICU length of stay were shorter in patients with monomicrobial S. maltophilia HAP (p = 0.031 and p = 0.034 respectively).
S. maltophilia HAP occurred in severe, long-stay intensive care patients who mainly required prolonged invasive ventilation. Empirical antimicrobial therapy was barely effective while antimicrobial treatment modalities had no significant impact on hospital survival.
clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03506191.
Atherogenic dyslipidemia is associated with poor cardiovascular outcomes, yet markers of this condition are often ignored in clinical practice. Here, we address a clear evidence gap by assessing the ...prevalence and treatment of two markers of atherogenic dyslipidemia: elevated triglyceride levels and low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.
This cross-sectional observational study assessed the prevalence of two atherogenic dyslipidemia markers, high triglyceride levels and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, in the study population from the European Study on Cardiovascular Risk Prevention and Management in Usual Daily Practice (EURIKA; N = 7641; of whom 51.6% were female and 95.6% were White/Caucasian). The EURIKA population included European patients, aged at least 50 years with at least one cardiovascular risk factor but no history of cardiovascular disease.
Over 20% of patients from the EURIKA population have either triglyceride or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels characteristic of atherogenic dyslipidemia. Furthermore, the proportions of patients with one of these markers were higher in subpopulations with type 2 diabetes mellitus or those already calculated to be at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Approximately 55% of the EURIKA population who have markers of atherogenic dyslipidemia are not receiving lipid-lowering therapy.
A considerable proportion of patients with at least one major cardiovascular risk factor in the primary cardiovascular disease prevention setting have markers of atherogenic dyslipidemia. The majority of these patients are not receiving optimal treatment, as specified in international guidelines, and thus their risk of developing cardiovascular disease is possibly underestimated.
The present study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT00882336).
Retrospective cohorts have suggested that levosimendan may facilitate the weaning of veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). We therefore studied this clinical question by ...emulating a randomized trial with observational data.
All patients with refractory postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock and assisted with VA-ECMO, admitted to a surgical intensive care unit at La Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital between 2016 and 2019, were eligible. To avoid immortal-time bias, we emulated a target trial sequentially comparing levosimendan administration versus no levosimendan administration in patients treated with VA-ECMO. The primary outcome was time to successful ECMO weaning. The secondary outcomes were 30-day and 1-year mortality. We performed a multivariable analysis to adjust for confounding at baseline.
Two hundred and thirty-nine patients were included in the study allowing building a nested trials cohort of 1434 copies of patients. No association of levosimendan treatment and VA-ECMO weaning was found (HR = 0.91, 0.57; 1.45, p = 0.659 in multivariable analysis), or 30-day mortality (OR = 1.03, 0.52; 2.03, p = 0.940) and 1-year mortality (OR = 1.00, 0.53; 1.89, p = 0.999).
Using the emulated target trial framework, this study did not find any association of levosimendan treatment and ECMO weaning success after postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock. However, the population of interest remains heterogeneous and subgroups might benefit from levosimendan.
Trials comparing early and delayed strategies of renal replacement therapy in patients with severe acute kidney injury may have missed differences in survival as a result of mixing together patients ...at heterogeneous levels of risks. Our aim was to evaluate the heterogeneity of treatment effect on 60-day mortality from an early vs a delayed strategy across levels of risk for renal replacement therapy initiation under a delayed strategy.
We used data from the AKIKI, and IDEAL-ICU randomized controlled trials to develop a multivariable logistic regression model for renal replacement therapy initiation within 48 h after allocation to a delayed strategy. We then used an interaction with spline terms in a Cox model to estimate treatment effects across the predicted risks of RRT initiation.
We analyzed data from 1107 patients (619 and 488 in the AKIKI and IDEAL-ICU trial respectively). In the pooled sample, we found evidence for heterogeneous treatment effects (P = 0.023). Patients at an intermediate-high risk of renal replacement therapy initiation within 48 h may have benefited from an early strategy (absolute risk difference, - 14%; 95% confidence interval, - 27% to - 1%). For other patients, we found no evidence of benefit from an early strategy of renal replacement therapy initiation but a trend for harm (absolute risk difference, 8%; 95% confidence interval, - 5% to 21% in patients at intermediate-low risk).
We have identified a clinically sound heterogeneity of treatment effect of an early vs a delayed strategy of renal replacement therapy initiation that may reflect varying degrees of kidney demand-capacity mismatch.
Maternal nutritional and metabolic status influence fetal growth. This study investigated the contribution of gestational weight gain (GWG), gestational diabetes (GDM), and maternal obesity to ...birthweight and newborn body fat. It is a secondary analysis of a prospective study including 204 women with a pregestational body mass index (BMI) of 18.5-24.9 kg/m
and 219 women with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m
. GDM was screened in the second and third trimester and was treated by dietary intervention, and insulin if required. Maternal obesity had the greatest effect on skinfolds (+1.4 mm) and cord leptin (+3.5 ng/mL), but no effect on birthweight. GWG was associated with increased birthweight and skinfolds thickness, independently from GDM and maternal obesity. There was an interaction between third trimester weight gain and GDM on birthweight and cord leptin, but not with maternal obesity. On average, +1 kg in third trimester was associated with +13 g in birthweight and with +0.64 ng/mL in cord leptin, and a further 32 g and 0.89 ng/mL increase in diabetic mothers, respectively. Maternal obesity is the main contributor to neonatal body fat. There is an independent association between third trimester weight gain, birthweight, and neonatal body fat, enhanced by GDM despite intensive treatment.
Abstract
Background
Vascular leakage is a major feature of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of FX06, a drug under development that stabilizes ...interendothelial cell junctions, at reducing vascular leakage during SARS-CoV-2-induced ARDS.
Methods
This multicenter, double-blinded, randomized trial included adults with COVID-19-associated ARDS who had received invasive mechanical ventilation for < 5 days and were randomized to receive either intravenous FX06 (400 mg/d, for 5 days) or its vehicle as placebo. The primary endpoint was the lowering—from day 1 to day 7—of the transpulmonary thermodilution-derived extravascular lung-water index (EVLWi).
Results
Twenty-five patients were randomized to receive FX06 and 24 the placebo. Although EVLWi was elevated at baseline (median IQR 15.6 mL/kg 13.5; 18.5), its declines from day 1 to day 7 were comparable for FX06 recipients and controls (respectively, − 1.9 − 3.3; − 0.5 vs. − 0.8 − 5.5; − 1.1 mL/kg; estimated effect − 0.8 − 3.1; + 2.4,
p
= 0.51). Cardiac indexes, pulmonary vascular permeability indexes, and fluid balances were also comparable, as were PaO
2
/FiO
2
ratios and durations of mechanical ventilation. Adverse event rates were similar for the 2 groups, although more FX06 recipients developed ventilator-associated pneumonia (16/25 (64%) vs. 6/24 (24%),
p
= 0.009).
Conclusions
In this unique-dosing–regimen study, FX06 did not lower SARS-CoV-2-induced pulmonary vascular leakage. Future investigations will need to evaluate its efficacy at earlier times during the disease or using other regimens.
Trial registration
NCT04618042. Registered 5 November 2020.
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