Extinction from habitat loss is the signature conservation problem of the twenty-first century. Despite its importance, estimating extinction rates is still highly uncertain because no proven direct ...methods or reliable data exist for verifying extinctions. The most widely used indirect method is to estimate extinction rates by reversing the species-area accumulation curve, extrapolating backwards to smaller areas to calculate expected species loss. Estimates of extinction rates based on this method are almost always much higher than those actually observed. This discrepancy gave rise to the concept of an 'extinction debt', referring to species 'committed to extinction' owing to habitat loss and reduced population size but not yet extinct during a non-equilibrium period. Here we show that the extinction debt as currently defined is largely a sampling artefact due to an unrecognized difference between the underlying sampling problems when constructing a species-area relationship (SAR) and when extrapolating species extinction from habitat loss. The key mathematical result is that the area required to remove the last individual of a species (extinction) is larger, almost always much larger, than the sample area needed to encounter the first individual of a species, irrespective of species distribution and spatial scale. We illustrate these results with data from a global network of large, mapped forest plots and ranges of passerine bird species in the continental USA; and we show that overestimation can be greater than 160%. Although we conclude that extinctions caused by habitat loss require greater loss of habitat than previously thought, our results must not lead to complacency about extinction due to habitat loss, which is a real and growing threat.
Since the publication of the unified neutral theory in 2001, there has been much discussion of the theory, pro and con. The hypothesis of ecological equivalence is the fundamental yet controversial ...idea behind neutral theory. Assuming trophically similar species are demographically alike (symmetric) on a per capita basis is only an approximation, but it is equivalent to asking: How many of the patterns of ecological communities are the result of species similarities, rather than of species differences? The strategy behind neutral theory is to see how far one can get with the simplification of assuming ecological equivalence before introducing more complexity. In another paper, I review the empirical evidence that led me to hypothesize ecological equivalence among many of the tree species in the species-rich tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI). In this paper, I develop a simple model for the evolution of ecological equivalence or niche convergence, using as an example evolution of the suite of life history traits characteristic of shade tolerant tropical tree species. Although the model is simple, the conclusions from it seem likely to be robust. I conclude that ecological equivalence for resource use are likely to evolve easily and often, especially in species-rich communities that are dispersal and recruitment limited. In the case of the BCI forest, tree species are strongly dispersal- and recruitment-limited, not only because of restricted seed dispersal, but also because of low recruitment success due to heavy losses of the seedling stages to predators and pathogens and other abiotic stresses such as drought. These factors and the high species richness of the community strongly reduce the potential for competitive exclusion of functionally equivalent or nearly equivalent species.
A decade has now passed since Hubbell published
The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography. Neutral theory highlights the importance of dispersal limitation, speciation and ...ecological drift in the natural world and provides quantitative null models for assessing the role of adaptation and natural selection. Significant advances have been made in providing methods for understanding neutral predictions and comparing them with empirical data. In this review, we describe the current state-of-the-art techniques and ideas in neutral theory and how these are of relevance to ecology. The future of neutral theory is promising, but its concepts must be applied more broadly beyond the current focus on species–abundance distributions.
1. Ecologists have long recognized that plant performance is affected by the density and composition of neighbouring individuals. With the advent of highly resolved species-level phylogenies, it has ...become possible to test whether such density-dependent neighbourhood interactions are also phylogenetically dependent. Most studies of density dependence have focused on a single life stage; however, the relative importance of different neighbourhood interactions may shift over the lifetime of an individual. 2. We examined effects of conspecific neighbour density, heterospecific neighbour density and average phylogenetic relatedness of heterospecific neighbours on the survival of seedlings, saplings, juveniles and adult trees of 29 focal tree species using long-term, spatially explicit forest dynamics data and a highly resolved DNA barcode phylogeny from the tropical forest of Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. 3. Our results show a decline in the strength of conspecific negative density dependence across life stages: strong negative conspecific neighbour effects at early life stages gave way to weak positive conspecific neighbour effects for adult trees. In contrast, the effect of heterospecific neighbour density on survival showed no clear trend with life stage. 4. We found evidence of phylogenetic density dependence in the BCI forest, with a significant negative impact of neighbourhood relatedness on focal tree survival, but only for later life stages. In contrast to studies from other tropical forests, neighbourhood relatedness had a significant positive effect on seedling survival. 5. Furthermore, we found that focal species varied much more widely in their sensitivity to conspecific neighbour density than in their reactions to heterospecific neighbour density or phylogenetic relatedness. 6. Synthesis. Overall, our results demonstrate that both conspecific density dependence and phylogenetic density dependence influence tropical tree survival, but that their relative importance varies with life stage and among species. Our study highlights the need to incorporate multiple life stages and multiple species when assessing the factors contributing to individual survival and species coexistence for long-lived organisms.
The phyllosphere—the aerial surfaces of plants, including leaves—is a ubiquitous global habitat that harbors diverse bacterial communities. Phyllosphere bacterial communities have the potential to ...influence plant biogeography and ecosystem function through their influence on the fitness and function of their hosts, but the host attributes that drive community assembly in the phyllosphere are poorly understood. In this study we used high-throughput sequencing to quantify bacterial community structure on the leaves of 57 tree species in a neotropical forest in Panama. We tested for relationships between bacterial communities on tree leaves and the functional traits, taxonomy, and phylogeny of their plant hosts. Bacterial communities on tropical tree leaves were diverse; leaves from individual trees were host to more than 400 bacterial taxa. Bacterial communities in the phyllosphere were dominated by a core microbiome of taxa including Actinobacteria, Alpha-, Beta-, and Gammaproteobacteria, and Sphingobacteria. Host attributes including plant taxonomic identity, phylogeny, growth and mortality rates, wood density, leaf mass per area, and leaf nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations were correlated with bacterial community structure on leaves. The relative abundances of several bacterial taxa were correlated with suites of host plant traits related to major axes of plant trait variation, including the leaf economics spectrum and the wood density–growth/mortality tradeoff. These correlations between phyllosphere bacterial diversity and host growth, mortality, and function suggest that incorporating information on plant–microbe associations will improve our ability to understand plant functional biogeography and the drivers of variation in plant and ecosystem function.
Significance In this study we sequenced bacterial communities present on tree leaves in a neotropical forest in Panama, to quantify the poorly understood relationships between bacterial biodiversity on leaves (the phyllosphere) vs. host tree attributes. Bacterial community structure on leaves was highly correlated with host evolutionary relatedness and suites of plant functional traits related to host ecological strategies for resource uptake and growth/mortality tradeoffs. The abundance of several bacterial taxa was correlated with host growth, mortality, and function. Our study quantifies the drivers of variation in plant-associated microbial biodiversity; our results suggest that incorporating information on plant-associated microbes will improve our understanding of the functional biogeography of plants and plant–microbe interactions.
An understanding of the drivers of tree growth at the species level is required to predict likely changes of carbon stocks and biodiversity when environmental conditions change. Especially in ...species-rich tropical forests, it is largely unknown how species differ in their response of growth to resource availability and individual size. We use a hierarchical bayesian approach to quantify the impact of light availability and tree diameter on growth of 274 woody species in a 50-ha long-term forest census plot in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Light reaching each individual tree was estimated from yearly vertical censuses of canopy density. The hierarchical bayesian approach allowed accounting for different sources of error, such as negative growth observations, and including rare species correctly weighted by their abundance. All species grew faster at higher light. Exponents of a power function relating growth to light were mostly between 0 and 1. This indicates that nearly all species exhibit a decelerating increase of growth with light. In contrast, estimated growth rates at standardized conditions (5 cm dbh, 5% light) varied over a 9-fold range and reflect strong growth-strategy differentiation between the species. As a consequence, growth rankings of the species at low (2%) and high light (20%) were highly correlated. Rare species tended to grow faster and showed a greater sensitivity to light than abundant species. Overall, tree size was less important for growth than light and about half the species were predicted to grow faster in diameter when bigger or smaller, respectively. Together light availability and tree diameter only explained on average 12% of the variation in growth rates. Thus, other factors such as soil characteristics, herbivory, or pathogens may contribute considerably to shaping tree growth in the tropics.
Credible estimates suggest that a large number of the nearly 7000 languages in the world could go extinct this century, a prospect with profound cultural, socioeconomic, and political ramifications. ...Despite its importance, we still have little predictive theory for language dynamics and richness. Critical to the language extinction problem, however, is to understand the dynamics of the number of speakers of languages, the dynamics of language abundance distributions (LADs). Many regional LADs are very similar to the bell-shaped distributions of relative species abundance predicted by neutral theory in ecology. Using the tenets of neutral theory, here we show that LADs can be understood as an equilibrium or disequilibrium between stochastic rates of origination and extinction of languages. However, neutral theory does not fit some regional LADs, which can be explained if the number of speakers has grown systematically faster in some languages than others, due to cultural factors and other non-neutral processes. Only the LADs of Australia and the United States, deviate from a bell-shaped pattern. These deviations are due to the documented higher, non-equilibrium extinction rates of low-abundance languages in these countries.
The factors determining species commonness and rarity are poorly understood, particularly in highly diverse communities. Theory predicts that interactions with neighbors of the same (conspecific) and ...other (heterospecific) species can influence a species' relative abundance, but empirical tests are lacking. By using a hierarchical model of survival for more than 30,000 seedlings of 180 tropical tree species on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, we tested whether species' sensitivity to neighboring individuals relates to their relative abundance in the community. We found wide variation among species in the effect of conspecific, but not heterospecific, neighbors on survival, and we found a significant relationship between the strength of conspecific neighbor effects and species abundance. Specifically, rare species suffered more from the presence of conspecific neighbors than common species did, suggesting that conspecific density dependence shapes species abundances in diverse communities.
Understanding tropical forest dynamics and planning for their sustainable management require efficient, yet accurate, predictions of the joint dynamics of hundreds of tree species. With increasing ...information on tropical tree life histories, our predictive understanding is no longer limited by species data but by the ability of existing models to make use of it. Using a demographic forest model, we show that the basal area and compositional changes during forest succession in a neotropical forest can be accurately predicted by representing tropical tree diversity (hundreds of species) with only five functional groups spanning two essential trade-offs-the growth-survival and stature-recruitment trade-offs. This data-driven modeling framework substantially improves our ability to predict consequences of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests.
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