A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those ...responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3-6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.
Most studies examining continental-to-global patterns of species richness rely on the overlaying of extent-of-occurrence range maps. Because a species does not occur at all locations within its ...geographic range, range-map-derived data represent actual distributional patterns only at some relatively coarse and undefined resolution. With the increasing availability of high-resolution climate and land-cover data, broad-scale studies are increasingly likely to estimate richness at high resolutions. Because of the scale dependence of most ecological phenomena, a significant mismatch between the presumed and actual scale of ecological data may arise. This may affect conclusions regarding basic drivers of diversity and may lead to errors in the identification of diversity hotspots. Here, we examine avian range maps of 834 bird species in conjunction with geographically extensive survey data sets on two continents to determine the spatial resolutions at which range-map data actually characterize species occurrences and patterns of species richness. At resolutions less than 2° (almost equal to200 km), range maps overestimate the area of occupancy of individual species and mischaracterize spatial patterns of species richness, resulting in up to two-thirds of biodiversity hotspots being misidentified. The scale dependence of range-map accuracy poses clear limitations on broad-scale ecological analyses and conservation assessments. We suggest that range-map data contain less information than is generally assumed and provide guidance about the appropriate scale of their use.
Explaining variation in species richness among provinces and other large geographic regions remains one of the most challenging problems at the intersection of ecology and evolution. Here we argue ...that empirical evidence supports a model whereby ecological factors associated with resource availability regulate species richness at continental scales. Any large-scale predictive model for biological diversity must explain three robust patterns in the natural world. First, species richness for evolutionary biotas is highly correlated with resource-associated surrogate variables, including area, temperature, and productivity. Second, species richness across epochal timescales is largely stationary in time. Third, the dynamics of diversity exhibit clear and predictable responses to mass extinctions, key innovations, and other perturbations. Collectively, these patterns are readily explained by a model in which species richness is regulated by diversity-dependent feedback mechanisms. We argue that many purported tests of the ecological limits hypothesis, including branching patterns in molecular phylogenies, are inherently weak and distract from these three core patterns. We have much to learn about the complex hierarchy of processes by which local ecological interactions lead to diversity dependence at the continental scale, but the empirical evidence overwhelmingly suggests that they do.
Aim: Physiology is emerging as a basis for understanding the distribution and diversity of organisms, and ultimately for predicting their responses to climate change. Here we review how the ...difference in physiology of terrestrial vertebrate ectotherms (amphibians and reptiles) and endotherms (birds and mammals) is expected to influence broad-scale ecological patterns. Location: Global terrestrial ecosystems. Methods: We use data from the literature and modelling to analyse geographic gradients in energy use and thermal limits. We then compare broad-scale ecological patterns for both groups with expectations stemming from these geographic gradients. Results: The differences in thermal physiology between ectotherms and endotherms result in geographically disparate macrophysiological constraints. Field metabolic rate (FMR) is stable or decreases slightly with temperature for endotherms, while it generally increases for ectotherms, leading to opposing latitudinal gradients of expected FMR. Potential activity time is a greater constraint on the distributions of ectotherms than endotherms, particularly at high latitudes. Differences in the primary correlates of abundance and species richness for two representative taxonomic groups are consistent with the consequences of these basic physiological differences. Ectotherm richness is better predicted by temperature, whereas endotherm richness is more strongly associated with primary productivity. Finally, in contrast to endotherms, ectotherm richness is not strongly related to abundance. Main conclusions: Differences in thermal physiology affect how organisms interact with and are constrained by their environment, and may ultimately explain differences in the geographic pattern of biodiversity for endotherms and ectotherms. Linking the fields of physiological and broad-scale ecology should yield a more mechanistic understanding of how biodiversity will respond to environmental change.
One of the primary ecological hypotheses put forward to explain patterns of biodiversity is known as the more‐individuals hypothesis of species‐energy theory. This hypothesis suggests that the number ...of species increases along the global energy gradient primarily as a result of an increase in the total number of individuals that can be supported along that gradient. Implicit in this hypothesis is that species richness should scale with energy in the same way in which it scales with area in species‐area relationships. We developed a novel framework for thinking about the interaction of area and energy, and we provide the first global test of this equivalence assumption using a data set on terrestrial breeding birds. We found that (1) species‐energy slopes are typically greater than species‐area slopes, (2) the magnitude of species‐area and species‐energy slopes varies strongly across the globe, and (3) the degree to which area and energy interact to determine species richness depends on the way mean values of species occupancy change along the energy gradient. Our results indicate that the increase in richness along global productivity gradients cannot be explained by more individuals alone, and we discuss other mechanisms by which increased productivity might facilitate species coexistence.
Abstract
The availability of citizen science data has resulted in growing applications in biodiversity science. One widely used platform, iNaturalist, provides millions of digitally vouchered ...observations submitted by a global user base. These observation records include a date and a location but otherwise do not contain any information about the sampling process. As a result, sampling biases must be inferred from the data themselves. In the present article, we examine spatial and temporal biases in iNaturalist observations from the platform's launch in 2008 through the end of 2019. We also characterize user behavior on the platform in terms of individual activity level and taxonomic specialization. We found that, at the level of taxonomic class, the users typically specialized on a particular group, especially plants or insects, and rarely made observations of the same species twice. Biodiversity scientists should consider whether user behavior results in systematic biases in their analyses before using iNaturalist data.
Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera, Parulidae) are declining migrant songbirds that breed in the Great Lakes and Appalachian regions of North America. Within their breeding range, ...Golden-winged Warblers are found in early successional habitats adjacent to mature hardwood forest, and previous work has found that Golden-winged Warbler habitat preferences are scale-dependent. Golden-winged Warbler Working Group management recommendations were written to apply to large regions of the breeding range, but there may be localized differences in both habitat availability and preferences. Rapid declines at the southernmost extent of their breeding range in Western North Carolina necessitate investigation into landscape characteristics governing distribution in this subregion. Furthermore, with the increase in availability of community science data from platforms such as eBird, it would be valuable to know if community science data produces similar distribution models as systemic sampling data. In this study, we described patterns of Golden-winged Warbler presence in Western North Carolina by examining habitat variables at multiple spatial scales using data from standardized Audubon North Carolina (NC) playback surveys and community science data from eBird. We compared model performance and predictions between Audubon NC and eBird models and found that Golden-winged Warbler presence is associated with sites which, at a local scale (150m), have less mature forest, more young forest, more herb/shrub cover, and more road cover, and at a landscape scale (2500m), have less herb/shrub cover. Golden-winged Warbler presence is also associated with higher elevations and smaller slopes. eBird and Audubon models had similar variable importance values, response curves, and overall performance. Based on variable importance values, elevation, mature forest at the local scale, and road cover at the local scale are the primary variables driving the difference between Golden-winged Warbler breeding sites and random background sites in Western North Carolina. Additionally, our results validate the use of eBird data, since they produce species distribution modeling results that are similar to results obtained from more standardized survey methods.
Energetic constraints are fundamental to ecology and evolution, and empirical relationships between species richness and estimates of available energy (i.e. resources) have led some to suggest that ...richness is energetically constrained. However, the mechanism linking energy with richness is rarely specified and predictions of secondary patterns consistent with energy‐constrained richness are lacking. Here, we lay out the necessary and sufficient assumptions of a causal relationship linking energy gradients to richness gradients. We then describe an eco‐evolutionary simulation model that combines spatially explicit diversification with trait evolution, resource availability and assemblage‐level carrying capacities. Our model identified patterns in richness and phylogenetic structure expected when a spatial gradient in energy availability determines the number of individuals supported in a given area. A comparison to patterns under alternative scenarios, in which fundamental assumptions behind energetic explanations were violated, revealed patterns that are useful for evaluating the importance of energetic constraints in empirical systems. We use a data set on rockfish (genus Sebastes) from the northeastern Pacific to show how empirical data can be coupled with model predictions to evaluate the role of energetic constraints in generating observed richness gradients.
The degree to which turnover in biological communities is structured by deterministic or stochastic factors and the identities of influential deterministic factors are fundamental, yet unresolved, ...questions in ecology. Answers to these questions are particularly important for projecting the fate of forests with diverse disturbance histories worldwide. To uncover the processes governing turnover we use species-level molecular phylogenies and functional trait data sets for two long-term tropical forest plots with contrasting disturbance histories: one forest is older-growth, and one was recently disturbed. Having both phylogenetic and functional information further allows us to parse out the deterministic influences of different ecological filters. With the use of null models we find that compositional turnover was random with respect to phylogeny on average, but highly nonrandom with respect to measured functional traits. Furthermore, as predicted by a deterministic assembly process, the older-growth and disturbed forests were characterized by less than and greater than expected functional turnover, respectively. These results suggest that the abiotic environment, which changes due to succession in the disturbed forest, strongly governs the temporal dynamics of disturbed and undisturbed tropical forests. Predicting future changes in the composition of disturbed and undisturbed forests may therefore be tractable when using a functional-trait-based approach.
Mandates for biofuel and renewable electricity are creating incentives for biomass production in agricultural landscapes of the Upper Midwest. Different bioenergy crops are expected to vary in their ...effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we use data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to forecast the impact of potential bioenergy crops on avian species richness and the number of bird species of conservation concern in Midwestern landscapes. Our analysis suggests that expanded production of annual bioenergy crops (e.g., corn and soybeans) on marginal land will lead to declines in avian richness between 7% and 65% across 20% of the region, and will make managing at-risk species more challenging. In contrast, replacement of annual with diverse perennial bioenergy crops (e.g., mixed grasses and forbs) is expected to bring increases in avian richness between 12% and 207% across 20% of the region, and possibly aid the recovery of several species of conservation concern.
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