Evidence suggests that people who abstain from alcohol have a higher mortality rate than those who drink low to moderate amounts. However, little is known about factors that might be causal for this ...finding. The objective was to analyze former alcohol or drug use disorders, risky drinking, tobacco smoking, and fair to poor health among persons who reported abstinence from alcohol drinking in the last 12 months before baseline in relation to total, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality 20 years later.
A sample of residents aged 18 to 64 years had been drawn at random among the general population in northern Germany and a standardized interview conducted in the years 1996 to 1997. The baseline assessment included 4,093 persons (70.2% of those who had been eligible). Vital status and death certificate data were retrieved in the years 2017 and 2018. We found that among the alcohol-abstinent study participants at baseline (447), there were 405 (90.60%) former alcohol consumers. Of the abstainers, 322 (72.04%) had met one or more criteria for former alcohol or drug dependence or abuse, alcohol risky drinking, or had tried to cut down or to stop drinking, were daily smokers, or self-rated their health as fair to poor. Among the abstainers with one or more of these risk factors, 114 (35.40%) had an alcohol use disorder or risky alcohol consumption in their history. Another 161 (50.00%) did not have such an alcohol-related risk but were daily smokers. The 322 alcohol-abstinent study participants with one or more of the risk factors had a shorter time to death than those with low to moderate alcohol consumption. The Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) was 2.44 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.68 to 3.56) for persons who had one or more criteria for an alcohol or drug use disorder fulfilled in their history and after adjustment for age and sex. The 125 alcohol-abstinent persons without these risk factors (27.96% of the abstainers) did not show a statistically significant difference from low to moderate alcohol consumers in total, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality. Those who had stayed alcohol abstinent throughout their life before (42; 9.40% of the alcohol-abstinent study participants at baseline) had an HR 1.64 (CI 0.72 to 3.77) compared to low to moderate alcohol consumers after adjustment for age, sex, and tobacco smoking. Main limitations of this study include its reliance on self-reported data at baseline and the fact that only tobacco smoking was analyzed as a risky behavior alongside alcohol consumption.
The majority of the alcohol abstainers at baseline were former alcohol consumers and had risk factors that increased the likelihood of early death. Former alcohol use disorders, risky alcohol drinking, ever having smoked tobacco daily, and fair to poor health were associated with early death among alcohol abstainers. Those without an obvious history of these risk factors had a life expectancy similar to that of low to moderate alcohol consumers. The findings speak against recommendations to drink alcohol for health reasons.
: The aim of this paper is to analyze the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors (HRBs), namely, tobacco smoking, alcohol risk drinking, overeating, and physical inactivity, as well as their 16 ...combinations (patterns), which are stratified by age and gender.
: The data of 19,294 study participants, from a telephone survey among the adult general population of Germany that was conducted in 2012, were analyzed.
: In adults, two or more of the four HBRs were found among 51.5% of females and 61.9% of males. The single most prevalent HRB pattern among all of the female (20.7, 19.6⁻21.8%) and male participants (18.2, 17.1⁻19.3%) was being overweight combined with a lack of physical activity, and its prevalence increased by 4% with each year of life. A multinomial regression analysis revealed that education was inversely associated with 11 of the 15 HRB patterns. The risk of having four, compared to zero, HRBs was 3.3 (2.5⁻4.4) for males relative to females.
: Similar to the findings from other western countries, the majority of the participants in this adult national sample from Germany had two or more HRBs. The most common of all possible HRB patterns was overweight and inactivity. The data confirm inverse relations between education and most HRB patterns.
Little is known about sex-specific trends in lung cancer mortality and years of potential life lost (YPLL) attributable to lung cancer over more than five decades. The aim of the present study was to ...describe mortality and YPLL due to lung cancer over 61 years of observation in a country with a high smoking prevalence.
We obtained data on trends in lung cancer mortality, population-level vital statistics, sales of taxed tobacco products, and survey data on smoking behavior among the German population. We then undertook joinpoint regression analyses to determine sex-specific trends in lung cancer mortality and YPLL.
Rates of lung cancer mortality and rates of lung cancer among all causes of death increased more among females than among males. Although YPLL among females increased from 6.6 in 1952 to 11.3 in 2012, this figure was found to have decreased from 7.3 to 4.4 among males in the same period. Sales of tobacco subject to tax increased from 1,509 cigarette equivalents per resident aged 15 or older in 1952 to 2,916 in 1976 - after which there was a decline. The prevalence of current smoking among females aged 35 years or older remained stable between 17.9 and 18.9 % in the period from 1989 to 2009. Among males in the same age group, however, prevalence decreased from 36.7 % in 1989 to 27.5 % in 2009.
Lung cancer mortality and YPLL among females increased over the six decades studied. Women should be more considered in smoking policies.
Underreporting of alcohol consumption is one of the major challenges in survey research including self-reports. The aim of this study was to test whether underreporting can be reduced by prompting ...respondents to first reflect on their drinking in the past week and then answer quantity-frequency based screening questions on their typical alcohol use. Data come from 2,379 adults (54% female; mean age = 31.8 years, SD = 11.4 years) consecutively recruited at a local registration office in northeastern Germany. Participants responded to an electronic, self-administered questionnaire on different health behaviors. They were randomized to receiving the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) either before or after the assessment of past week timeline follow-back questions. Logistic regression models were calculated predicting positive screening results for at-risk drinking. Potential interaction effects with gender, age and educational background were explored. Results show that the assessment of past week alcohol consumption prior to the assessment of the AUDIT-C reduced the odds of obtaining positive screening results (OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.70-0.99). There were no interaction effects with gender, age and educational background. As a secondary finding, participants reported consistently lower alcohol consumption in the alcohol measure that was administered later in the questionnaire. Preceding questions about alcohol consumption in the past week reduced the probability of positive screening results for at-risk drinking. Our findings suggest that prompting people to recall past week alcohol use prior to screening may not be a solution to reduce underreporting.
Context: To date, it is unclear which measure of obesity is the most appropriate for risk stratification.
Objective: The aim of the study was to compare the associations of various measures of ...obesity with incident cardiovascular events and mortality.
Design and Setting: We analyzed two German cohort studies, the DETECT study and SHIP, including primary care and general population.
Participants: A total of 6355 (mean follow-up, 3.3 yr) and 4297 (mean follow-up, 8.5 yr) individuals participated in DETECT and SHIP, respectively.
Interventions: We measured body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and assessed cardiovascular and all-cause mortality and the composite endpoint of incident stroke, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death.
Results: In both studies, we found a positive association of the composite endpoint with WHtR but not with BMI. There was no heterogeneity among studies. The relative risks in the highest versus the lowest sex- and age-specific quartile of WHtR, WC, WHR, and BMI after adjustment for multiple confounders were as follows in the pooled data: cardiovascular mortality, 2.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.31–5.77), 1.74 (0.84–3.6), 1.71 (0.91–3.22), and 0.74 (0.35–1.57), respectively; all-cause mortality, 1.86 (1.25–2.76), 1.62 (1.22–2.38), 1.36 (0.93–1.69), and 0.77 (0.53–1.13), respectively; and composite endpoint, 2.16 (1.39–3.35), 1.59 (1.04–2.44), 1.49 (1.07–2.07), and 0.57 (0.37–0.89), respectively. Separate analyses of sex and age groups yielded comparable results. Receiver operating characteristics analysis yielded the highest areas under the curve for WHtR for predicting these endpoints.
Conclusions: WHtR represents the best predictor of cardiovascular risk and mortality, followed by WC and WHR. Our results discourage the use of the BMI.
Measures of abdominal obesity but not body mass index predict cardiovascular risk and mortality.
Evidence shows that low to moderate alcohol consumers seem to live longer than abstainers. Insufficient consideration of subgroups among abstainers and of further behavior-related risk factors for ...death might be reasons. The aim of this study was to compare alcohol lifetime abstainers, former drinkers, and current consumers with regard to mortality considering tobacco smoking, body overweight, and physical inactivity.
A general adult population sample of residents aged 18 to 64 had been drawn at random in northern Germany. Among eligible persons, 4093 (70.2%) participated. Assessments included alcohol consumption by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test Consumption in addition to lifetime alcohol abstinence and former drinking. A score of behavior-related risk factors was built from tobacco smoking, body overweight, and physical inactivity. Twenty years later, a mortality follow-up was conducted. Data of 4028 study participants were analyzed.
At baseline, former alcohol consumers but not current low to moderate alcohol drinkers had more behavior-related risk factors than lifetime abstainers. At follow-up, former alcohol drinkers with two or more behavior-related risk factors had a shorter time to death than lifetime abstainers with 0 or one behavior-related risk factor (hazard ratio 3.43, 95% confidence interval: 1.63–7.20). Low to moderate alcohol drinkers did not survive longer than lifetime alcohol abstainers with 0 or one behavior-related risk factor.
The results provide evidence against the assumption that alcohol consumption has a beneficial effect on health and longevity.
•There is no higher risk of death among lifetime abstainers than alcohol consumers.•Behavior-related risk factors might explain a high mortality of alcohol abstainers.•Smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and alcohol drinking predicted time to death.
Abstract
Background
Missing data are ubiquitous in randomised controlled trials. Although sensitivity analyses for different missing data mechanisms (missing at random vs. missing not at random) are ...widely recommended, they are rarely conducted in practice. The aim of the present study was to demonstrate sensitivity analyses for different assumptions regarding the missing data mechanism for randomised controlled trials using latent growth modelling (LGM).
Methods
Data from a randomised controlled brief alcohol intervention trial was used. The sample included 1646 adults (56% female;
mean age
= 31.0 years) from the general population who had received up to three individualized alcohol feedback letters or assessment-only. Follow-up interviews were conducted after 12 and 36 months via telephone. The main outcome for the analysis was change in alcohol use over time. A three-step LGM approach was used. First, evidence about the process that generated the missing data was accumulated by analysing the extent of missing values in both study conditions, missing data patterns, and baseline variables that predicted participation in the two follow-up assessments using logistic regression. Second, growth models were calculated to analyse intervention effects over time. These models assumed that data were missing at random and applied full-information maximum likelihood estimation. Third, the findings were safeguarded by incorporating model components to account for the possibility that data were missing not at random. For that purpose, Diggle-Kenward selection, Wu-Carroll shared parameter and pattern mixture models were implemented.
Results
Although the true data generating process remained unknown, the evidence was unequivocal: both the intervention and control group reduced their alcohol use over time, but no significant group differences emerged. There was no clear evidence for intervention efficacy, neither in the growth models that assumed the missing data to be at random nor those that assumed the missing data to be not at random.
Conclusion
The illustrated approach allows the assessment of how sensitive conclusions about the efficacy of an intervention are to different assumptions regarding the missing data mechanism. For researchers familiar with LGM, it is a valuable statistical supplement to safeguard their findings against the possibility of nonignorable missingness.
Trial registration
The PRINT trial was prospectively registered at the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00014274, date of registration: 12th March 2018).
Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) is a key cofactor required for essential metabolic oxidation-reduction reactions. It also regulates various cellular activities, including gene expression, ...signaling, DNA repair and calcium homeostasis. Intracellular NAD+ levels are tightly regulated and often respond rapidly to nutritional and environmental changes. Numerous studies indicate that elevating NAD+ may be therapeutically beneficial in the context of numerous diseases. However, the role of NAD+ on skeletal muscle exercise performance is poorly understood. CD38, a multi-functional membrane receptor and enzyme, consumes NAD+ to generate products such as cyclic-ADP-ribose. CD38 knockout mice show elevated tissue and blood NAD+ level. Chronic feeding of high-fat, high-sucrose diet to wild type mice leads to exercise intolerance and reduced metabolic flexibility. Loss of CD38 by genetic mutation protects mice from diet-induced metabolic deficit. These animal model results suggest that elevation of tissue NAD+ through genetic ablation of CD38 can profoundly alter energy homeostasis in animals that are maintained on a calorically-excessive Western diet.
Objectives
To estimate mortality on grounds of the severity of alcohol dependence which has been assessed by two approaches: the frequency of alcohol dependence symptoms (FADS) and the number of ...alcohol dependence criteria (NADC).
Methods
A random sample of adult community residents in northern Germany at age 18 to 64 had been interviewed in 1996. Among 4075 study participants at baseline, for 4028 vital status was ascertained 20 years later. The FADS was assessed by the Severity of Alcohol Dependence Scale among the 780 study participants who had one or more symptoms of alcohol dependence or abuse and vital status information. The NADC was estimated by the Munich Composite International Diagnostic Interview among 4028 study participants with vital status information. Cox proportional hazard models were used.
Results
The age‐adjusted hazard ratio for the FADS (value range: 0–79) was 1.02 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.016–1.028), for the NADC (value range: 0–7) it was 1.25 (CI: 1.19–1.32).
Conclusions
The FADS and NADC predicted time to death in a dose‐dependent manner in this adult general population sample.
The population impact of alcohol screening and brief intervention might be increased by approaching an entire population rather than individuals at high risk only. The aim is to present the protocol ...of the study "Testing a proactive expert system intervention to prevent and to quit at-risk alcohol use" (PRINT) which tests the efficacy of a computer-based brief intervention (i) to elicit drinking reductions among persons with at-risk alcohol use and (ii) to prevent at-risk alcohol use among current low-risk drinkers.
The PRINT study is a two-arm randomized controlled trial with a 12-month follow-up. A total of 1648 participants will be proactively recruited in the waiting area of a municipal registry office. All 18- to 64-year-old persons with past year alcohol use will be randomized to either the intervention group or the control group. Participants in the intervention group will receive computer-generated individualized feedback letters at baseline, month 3, and month 6. Participants in the control group will receive assessment only. The primary outcome is the change in the number of drinks per day from baseline to month 12.
We expect to provide a computer-based brief alcohol intervention that is appropriate for a wide range of people with alcohol use regardless of their initial alcohol-risk level. The intervention might have the potential to decrease alcohol use and alcohol-related problems on a population level at low costs.
German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00014274 (date of registration: 2018/03/12).
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