The pricing behavior of agricultural processing firms in input markets has large impacts on farmers’ and processors’ prosperity as well as the overall market structure. Despite analytical approaches ...to food processors’ pricing in agricultural input markets, the need for models to represent complex market features is urgent. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as computational laboratories to understand complex markets emerging from autonomously interacting agents. Yet, individual agents within ABMs must be equipped with intelligent learning algorithms. In this paper, we propose supervised and unsupervised learning agents to simulate the pricing behavior of firms in agricultural markets’ ABMs. Supervised learning firms are pre-trained to accurately best respond to their competitors and are deemed to result in the market Nash equilibria. Unsupervised learning firms play a course of pricing interaction with their competitors without any pre-knowledge but based on deep reinforcement learning. The simulation results show that unsupervised deep learning firms are capable of approximating the pricing equilibria obtained by the supervised firms in different spatial market settings. Optimal discriminatory and uniform delivery pricing emerges in agricultural input markets with the high and intermediary importance placed on space. Free on board pricing emerges in agricultural input markets with small importance placed on space.
Appeals to governments for implementing basic income are contemporary. The theoretical backgrounds of the basic income notion only prescribe transferring equal amounts to individuals irrespective of ...their specific attributes. However, the most recent basic income initiatives all around the world are attached to certain rules with regard to the attributes of the households. This approach is facing significant challenges to appropriately recognize vulnerable groups. A possible alternative for setting rules with regard to the welfare attributes of the households is to employ artificial intelligence algorithms that can process unprecedented amounts of data. Can integrating machine learning change the future of basic income by predicting households vulnerable to future poverty? In this paper, we utilize multidimensional and longitudinal welfare data comprising one and a half million individuals’ data and a Bayesian beliefs network approach to examine the feasibility of predicting households’ vulnerability to future poverty based on the existing households’ welfare attributes.
Population-based data are lacking regarding the risk of overall and cause-specific mortality across the complete histological spectrum of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).
This nationwide, ...matched cohort study included all individuals in Sweden with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD (1966 to 2017; n=10 568). NAFLD was confirmed histologically from all liver biopsies submitted to Sweden's 28 pathology departments, after excluding other etiologies of liver disease, and further categorised as, simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (NASH), non-cirrhotic fibrosis and cirrhosis. NAFLD cases were matched to ≤5 general population comparators by age, sex, calendar year and county (n=49 925). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable-adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs.
Over a median of 14.2 years, 4,338 NAFLD patients died. Compared with controls, NAFLD patients had significantly increased overall mortality (16.9 vs 28.6/1000 PY; difference=11.7/1000 PY; aHR=1.93, 95% CI=1.86 to 2.00). Compared with controls, significant excess mortality risk was observed with simple steatosis (8.3/1000 PY, aHR=1.71, 95% CI=1.64 to 1.79), non-fibrotic NASH (13.4/1000 PY, aHR=2.14, 95% CI=1.93 to 2.38), non-cirrhotic fibrosis (18.4/1000 PY, aHR=2.44, 95% CI=2.22 to 2.69) and cirrhosis (53.6/1000 PY, aHR=3.79, 95% CI=3.34 to 4.30)(p
<0.01). This dose-dependent gradient was similar when simple steatosis was the reference (p
<0.01). The excess mortality associated with NAFLD was primarily from extrahepatic cancer (4.5/1000 PY, aHR=2.16, 95% CI=2.03 to 2.30), followed by cirrhosis (2.7/1000 PY, aHR=18.15, 95% CI=14.78 to 22.30), cardiovascular disease (1.4/1000 PY, aHR=1.35, 95% CI=1.26 to 1.44) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (1.2/1000 PY, aHR=11.12, 95% CI=8.65 to 14.30).
All NAFLD histological stages were associated with significantly increased overall mortality, and this risk increased progressively with worsening NAFLD histology. Most of this excess mortality was from extrahepatic cancer and cirrhosis, while in contrast, the contributions of cardiovascular disease and HCC were modest.
The gut microbiome plays a central role in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) pathogenesis and propagation. To determine whether the gut microbiome may predict responses to IBD therapy, we conducted ...a prospective study with Crohn’s disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC) patients initiating anti-integrin therapy (vedolizumab). Disease activity and stool metagenomes at baseline, and weeks 14, 30, and 54 after therapy initiation were assessed. Community α-diversity was significantly higher, and Roseburia inulinivorans and a Burkholderiales species were more abundant at baseline among CD patients achieving week 14 remission. Several significant associations were identified with microbial function; 13 pathways including branched chain amino acid synthesis were significantly enriched in baseline samples from CD patients achieving remission. A neural network algorithm, vedoNet, incorporating microbiome and clinical data, provided highest classifying power for clinical remission. We hypothesize that the trajectory of early microbiome changes may be a marker of response to IBD treatment.
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•Stool metagenomes of IBD patients starting biologic therapy were prospectively assessed•Higher abundance of butyrate producers at baseline in therapy-responsive CD patients•Baseline enrichment of 13 microbial pathways in therapy-responsive CD patients•Early microbial changes at week 14 persist up to 1 year in responders
Gut microbiome may predict responses to clinical therapy. Ananthakrishnan et al. conducted a prospective study with IBD patients initiating anti-integrin therapy. Higher abundance of butyrate producers and enrichment of 13 microbial pathways at baseline in therapy-responsive CD patients was observed. Early microbial changes persist up to 1 year in responders.
Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, collectively known as IBD, are chronic inflammatory disorders of the gastrointestinal tract. Although the aetiopathogenesis of IBD is largely unknown, it is ...widely thought that diet has a crucial role in the development and progression of IBD. Indeed, epidemiological and genetic association studies have identified a number of promising dietary and genetic risk factors for IBD. These preliminary studies have led to major interest in investigating the complex interaction between diet, host genetics, the gut microbiota and immune function in the pathogenesis of IBD. In this Review, we discuss the recent epidemiological, gene-environment interaction, microbiome and animal studies that have explored the relationship between diet and the risk of IBD. In addition, we highlight the limitations of these prior studies, in part by explaining their contradictory findings, and review future directions.
The temperature range of 25–35 °C provides the most suitable conditions for the best performance of batteries. This study introduced an advanced new thermal management system for batteries designed ...based on thermoelectric elements and radiators. The battery system is modeled during a real driving cycle. The simulation results showed that the temperature pattern of the battery surface followed a fluctuation pattern before reaching a steady-state condition in cold seasons. A similar model for hot months followed the velocity profile of the vehicle. Besides, the temperature profile was linear with a positive slope in hot seasons for the battery charge time. The surface temperature of the cold plate of the thermoelectric elements in cold seasons reduced with velocity from the cold to hot season while following the velocity profile of the vehicle in hot seasons, with a positive slope and linear trend. Concerning the surface temperature of the hot plate of the thermoelectric elements, the profile was linear and incremental. Furthermore, the increasing trend experienced some fluctuations that declined from the cold to hot season, while there were no fluctuations for the temperatures above 25 °C. In the cold seasons of the year, as the temperature increases from 6.9 to 15.5 °C, the oscillating state decreases for 500 s, and when it increases again to 21.5 °C, the time interval decreases for 100 s. Also, for thermal management in the hot season,
k
fan
is reduced from 0.81 to 0.21 W K
−1
to achieve balance and optimal operation of thermoelectric elements. The same fluctuation trend applies to all the results obtained from the energy stored in the battery diagram. It can be concluded that the newly introduced thermal management system can maintain the battery temperature at an appropriate temperature range. The results followed similar patterns for various thermal conditions wherein different parameters of the thermal management system were examined. The new cycle introduced using the fuzzy logic algorithm and the PID controller could manifest proper efficiency for real applications.
Background & Aims Increased intake of dietary fiber has been proposed to reduce the risk of inflammatory bowel disease (Crohn's disease CD and ulcerative colitis UC). However, few prospective studies ...have examined associations between long-term intake of dietary fiber and risk of incident CD or UC. Methods We collected and analyzed data from 170,776 women, followed up over 26 years, who participated in the Nurses' Health Study, followed up for 3,317,425 person-years. Dietary information was prospectively ascertained via administration of a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire every 4 years. Self-reported CD and UC were confirmed through review of medical records. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for potential confounders, were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs). Results We confirmed 269 incident cases of CD (incidence, 8/100,000 person-years) and 338 cases of UC (incidence, 10/100,000 person-years). Compared with the lowest quintile of energy-adjusted cumulative average intake of dietary fiber, intake of the highest quintile (median of 24.3 g/day) was associated with a 40% reduction in risk of CD (multivariate HR for CD, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.39–0.90). This apparent reduction appeared to be greatest for fiber derived from fruits; fiber from cereals, whole grains, or legumes did not modify risk. In contrast, neither total intake of dietary fiber (multivariate HR, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.58–1.17) nor intake of fiber from specific sources appeared to be significantly associated with risk of UC. Conclusions Based on data from the Nurses' Health Study, long-term intake of dietary fiber, particularly from fruit, is associated with lower risk of CD but not UC. Further studies are needed to determine the mechanisms that mediate this association.
The intestinal microbiome is a key determinant of responses to biologic therapy in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, diverse therapeutics and variable responses among IBD patients have posed ...challenges in predicting clinical therapeutic success. In this prospective study, we profiled baseline stool and blood in patients with moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis initiating anti-cytokine therapy (anti-TNF or -IL12/23) or anti-integrin therapy. Patients were assessed at 14 weeks for clinical remission and 52 weeks for clinical and endoscopic remission. Baseline microbial richness indicated preferential responses to anti-cytokine therapy and correlated with the abundance of microbial species capable of 7α/β-dehydroxylation of primary to secondary bile acids. Serum signatures of immune proteins reflecting microbial diversity identified patients more likely to achieve remission with anti-cytokine therapy. Remission-associated multi-omic profiles were unique to each therapeutic class. These profiles may facilitate a priori determination of optimal therapeutics for patients and serve as targets for newer therapies.
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•Multi-omics define microbiome mechanisms linked to remission with various IBD therapies•7α/β-dehydroxylation of primary to secondary bile acids determines anti-cytokine responses•Metagenomic and immune profiles linked with remission are unique to therapeutic class•27 unique serum immune proteins are associated with gut microbiome
Biomarkers predicting responses and guiding stratified therapeutic approaches in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) remain an unmet medical need. Lee et al. identified fecal metagenomic, serum metabolomic, and proteomic markers that predict differential response to either anti-cytokine or anti-integrin therapy in IBD.
Dietary fats influence intestinal inflammation and regulate mucosal immunity. Data on the association between dietary fat and risk of Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are limited and ...conflicting.
We conducted a prospective study of women enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study cohorts. Diet was prospectively ascertained every 4 years using a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Self-reported CD and UC were confirmed through medical record review. We examined the effect of energy-adjusted cumulative average total fat intake and specific types of fat and fatty acids on the risk of CD and UC using Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders.
Among 170,805 women, we confirmed 269 incident cases of CD (incidence 8/100,000 person-years) and 338 incident cases of UC (incidence 10/100,000 person-years) over 26 years and 3,317,338 person-years of follow-up. Cumulative energy-adjusted intake of total fat, saturated fats, unsaturated fats, n-6 and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) were not associated with risk of CD or UC. However, greater intake of long-chain n-3 PUFAs was associated with a trend towards lower risk of UC (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.01). In contrast, high long-term intake of trans-unsaturated fatty acids was associated with a trend towards an increased incidence of UC (HR 1.34, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.92).
A high intake of dietary long-chain n-3 PUFAs may be associated with a reduced risk of UC. In contrast, high intake of trans-unsaturated fats may be associated with an increased risk of UC.
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