Empiric quantification of human mobility patterns is paramount for better urban planning, understanding social network structure and responding to infectious disease threats, especially in light of ...rapid growth in urbanization and globalization. This need is of particular relevance for developing countries, since they host the majority of the global urban population and are disproportionally affected by the burden of disease. We used Global Positioning System (GPS) data-loggers to track the fine-scale (within city) mobility patterns of 582 residents from two neighborhoods from the city of Iquitos, Peru. We used ∼2.3 million GPS data-points to quantify age-specific mobility parameters and dynamic co-location networks among all tracked individuals. Geographic space significantly affected human mobility, giving rise to highly local mobility kernels. Most (∼80%) movements occurred within 1 km of an individual's home. Potential hourly contacts among individuals were highly irregular and temporally unstructured. Only up to 38% of the tracked participants showed a regular and predictable mobility routine, a sharp contrast to the situation in the developed world. As a case study, we quantified the impact of spatially and temporally unstructured routines on the dynamics of transmission of an influenza-like pathogen within an Iquitos neighborhood. Temporally unstructured daily routines (e.g., not dominated by a single location, such as a workplace, where an individual repeatedly spent significant amount of time) increased an epidemic's final size and effective reproduction number by 20% in comparison to scenarios modeling temporally structured contacts. Our findings provide a mechanistic description of the basic rules that shape human mobility within a resource-poor urban center, and contribute to the understanding of the role of fine-scale patterns of individual movement and co-location in infectious disease dynamics. More generally, this study emphasizes the need for careful consideration of human social interactions when designing infectious disease mitigation strategies, particularly within resource-poor urban environments.
Human movement is a key behavioral factor in many vector-borne disease systems because it influences exposure to vectors and thus the transmission of pathogens. Human movement transcends spatial and ...temporal scales with different influences on disease dynamics. Here we develop a conceptual model to evaluate the importance of variation in exposure due to individual human movements for pathogen transmission, focusing on mosquito-borne dengue virus.
We develop a model showing that the relevance of human movement at a particular scale depends on vector behavior. Focusing on the day-biting Aedes aegypti, we illustrate how vector biting behavior combined with fine-scale movements of individual humans engaged in their regular daily routine can influence transmission. Using a simple example, we estimate a transmission rate (R(0)) of 1.3 when exposure is assumed to occur only in the home versus 3.75 when exposure at multiple locations--e.g., market, friend's--due to movement is considered. Movement also influences for which sites and individuals risk is greatest. For the example considered, intriguingly, our model predicts little correspondence between vector abundance in a site and estimated R(0) for that site when movement is considered. This illustrates the importance of human movement for understanding and predicting the dynamics of a disease like dengue. To encourage investigation of human movement and disease, we review methods currently available to study human movement and, based on our experience studying dengue in Peru, discuss several important questions to address when designing a study.
Human movement is a critical, understudied behavioral component underlying the transmission dynamics of many vector-borne pathogens. Understanding movement will facilitate identification of key individuals and sites in the transmission of pathogens such as dengue, which then may provide targets for surveillance, intervention, and improved disease prevention.
Early diagnosis of dengue virus (DENV) infection can improve clinical outcomes by ensuring close follow-up, initiating appropriate supportive therapies and raising awareness to the potential of ...hemorrhage or shock. Non-structural glycoprotein-1 (NS1) has proven to be a useful biomarker for early diagnosis of dengue. A number of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) targeting NS1 antigen (Ag) are now commercially available. Here we evaluated these tests using a well-characterized panel of clinical samples to determine their effectiveness for early diagnosis.
Retrospective samples from South America were used to evaluate the following tests: (i) "Dengue NS1 Ag STRIP" and (ii) "Platelia Dengue NS1 Ag ELISA" (Bio-Rad, France), (iii) "Dengue NS1 Detect Rapid Test (1st Generation)" and (iv) "DENV Detect NS1 ELISA" (InBios International, United States), (v) "Panbio Dengue Early Rapid (1st generation)" (vi) "Panbio Dengue Early ELISA (2nd generation)" and (vii) "SD Bioline Dengue NS1 Ag Rapid Test" (Alere, United States). Overall, the sensitivity of the RDTs ranged from 71.9%-79.1% while the sensitivity of the ELISAs varied between 85.6-95.9%, using virus isolation as the reference method. Most tests had lower sensitivity for DENV-4 relative to the other three serotypes, were less sensitive in detecting secondary infections, and appeared to be most sensitive on Day 3-4 post symptom onset. The specificity of all evaluated tests ranged from 95%-100%.
ELISAs had greater overall sensitivity than RDTs. In conjunction with other parameters, the performance data can help determine which dengue diagnostics should be used during the first few days of illness, when the patients are most likely to present to a clinic seeking care.
Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease of growing global health importance. Prevention efforts focus on mosquito control, with limited success. New insights into the spatiotemporal drivers of dengue ...dynamics are needed to design improved disease-prevention strategies. Given the restricted range of movement of the primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti , local human movements may be an important driver of dengue virus (DENV) amplification and spread. Using contact-site cluster investigations in a case-control design, we demonstrate that, at an individual level, risk for human infection is defined by visits to places where contact with infected mosquitoes is likely, independent of distance from the home. Our data indicate that house-to-house human movements underlie spatial patterns of DENV incidence, causing marked heterogeneity in transmission rates. At a collective level, transmission appears to be shaped by social connections because routine movements among the same places, such as the homes of family and friends, are often similar for the infected individual and their contacts. Thus, routine, house-to-house human movements do play a key role in spread of this vector-borne pathogen at fine spatial scales. This finding has important implications for dengue prevention, challenging the appropriateness of current approaches to vector control. We argue that reexamination of existing paradigms regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV and other vector-borne pathogens, especially the importance of human movement, will lead to improvements in disease prevention.
Nearly half of the world's population is at risk for dengue, yet no licensed vaccine or anti-viral drug is currently available. Dengue is caused by any of four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 through ...DENV-4), and infection by a DENV serotype is assumed to provide life-long protection against re-infection by that serotype. We investigated the validity of this fundamental assumption during a large dengue epidemic caused by DENV-2 in Iquitos, Peru, in 2010-2011, 15 years after the first outbreak of DENV-2 in the region.
We estimated the age-dependent prevalence of serotype-specific DENV antibodies from longitudinal cohort studies conducted between 1993 and 2010. During the 2010-2011 epidemic, active dengue cases were identified through active community- and clinic-based febrile surveillance studies, and acute inapparent DENV infections were identified through contact tracing studies. Based on the age-specific prevalence of DENV-2 neutralizing antibodies, the age distribution of DENV-2 cases was markedly older than expected. Homologous protection was estimated at 35.1% (95% confidence interval: 0%-65.2%). At the individual level, pre-existing DENV-2 antibodies were associated with an incomplete reduction in the frequency of symptoms. Among dengue cases, 43% (26/66) exhibited elevated DENV-2 neutralizing antibody titers for years prior to infection, compared with 76% (13/17) of inapparent infections (age-adjusted odds ratio: 4.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-17.7).
Our data indicate that protection from homologous DENV re-infection may be incomplete in some circumstances, which provides context for the limited vaccine efficacy against DENV-2 in recent trials. Further studies are warranted to confirm this phenomenon and to evaluate the potential role of incomplete homologous protection in DENV transmission dynamics.
In 2010, an outbreak of febrile illness with arthralgic manifestations was detected at La Estación village, Portuguesa State, Venezuela. The etiologic agent was determined to be Mayaro virus (MAYV), ...a reemerging South American alphavirus. A total of 77 cases was reported and 19 were confirmed as seropositive. MAYV was isolated from acute-phase serum samples from 6 symptomatic patients. We sequenced 27 complete genomes representing the full spectrum of MAYV genetic diversity, which facilitated detection of a new genotype, designated N. Phylogenetic analysis of genomic sequences indicated that etiologic strains from Venezuela belong to genotype D. Results indicate that MAYV is highly conserved genetically, showing ≈17% nucleotide divergence across all 3 genotypes and 4% among genotype D strains in the most variable genes. Coalescent analyses suggested genotypes D and L diverged ≈150 years ago and genotype diverged N ≈250 years ago. This virus commonly infects persons residing near enzootic transmission foci because of anthropogenic incursions.
Violence against female sex workers (FSWs) has been increasingly reported as an important determinant of HIV infection risk. This study explores the frequency of different violent experiences (sexual ...abuse, rejection, beating and imprisonment) among FSWs in Argentina and its association with condom use and HIV and T. pallidum prevalence.
A convenience sample of 1255 FSWs was included in a cross-sectional study conducted between October 2006 and November 2009.
Sexual abuse was reported by 24.1% (219/907) of women. A total of 34.7% (42/1234) reported rejection experiences, 21.9% (267/1215) reported having been beaten and 45.4% (561/1236) stated having been arrested because of their sex work activity. There was a higher frequency of inconsistent condom use with clients among FSWs who had experienced sexual abuse, rejection, and police detention. A higher frequency of HIV and T. pallidum infection was detected among FSWs who reported having been arrested by the police.
The study shows for the first time the frequency of different violent situations among FSWs in Argentina. The association between violence against sex workers, condom use and STI prevalence demonstrated here calls for measures to reduce stigma and violence against FSWs. Such violent experiences may increase vulnerability to STI through coerced unprotected sex.
Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are among the most common agents of human febrile illness worldwide and the most important emerging pathogens, causing multiple notable epidemics of human ...disease over recent decades. Despite the public health relevance, little is know about the geographic distribution, relative impact, and risk factors for arbovirus infection in many regions of the world. Our objectives were to describe the arboviruses associated with acute undifferentiated febrile illness in participating clinics in four countries in South America and to provide detailed epidemiological analysis of arbovirus infection in Iquitos, Peru, where more extensive monitoring was conducted.
A clinic-based syndromic surveillance system was implemented in 13 locations in Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. Serum samples and demographic information were collected from febrile participants reporting to local health clinics or hospitals. Acute-phase sera were tested for viral infection by immunofluorescence assay or RT-PCR, while acute- and convalescent-phase sera were tested for pathogen-specific IgM by ELISA. Between May 2000 and December 2007, 20,880 participants were included in the study, with evidence for recent arbovirus infection detected for 6,793 (32.5%). Dengue viruses (Flavivirus) were the most common arbovirus infections, totaling 26.0% of febrile episodes, with DENV-3 as the most common serotype. Alphavirus (Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus VEEV and Mayaro virus MAYV) and Orthobunyavirus (Oropouche virus OROV, Group C viruses, and Guaroa virus) infections were both observed in approximately 3% of febrile episodes. In Iquitos, risk factors for VEEV and MAYV infection included being male and reporting to a rural (vs urban) clinic. In contrast, OROV infection was similar between sexes and type of clinic.
Our data provide a better understanding of the geographic range of arboviruses in South America and highlight the diversity of pathogens in circulation. These arboviruses are currently significant causes of human illness in endemic regions but also have potential for further expansion. Our data provide a basis for analyzing changes in their ecology and epidemiology.
Dengue is one of the most important vector-borne diseases, resulting in an estimated hundreds of millions of infections annually throughout the tropics. Control of dengue is heavily dependent upon ...control of its primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. Innovative interventions that are effective at targeting the adult stage of the mosquito are needed to increase the options for effective control. The use of insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) has previously been shown to significantly reduce the abundance of Ae. aegypti in and around homes, but the impact of ITCs on dengue virus (DENV) transmission has not been rigorously quantified. A parallel arm cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in Iquitos, Peru to quantify the impact of ITCs on DENV seroconversion as measured through plaque-reduction neutralization tests. Seroconversion data showed that individuals living in the clusters that received ITCs were at greater risk to seroconverting to DENV, with an average seroconversion rate of 50.6 per 100 person-years (PY) (CI: 29.9-71.9), while those in the control arm had an average seroconversion rate of 37.4 per 100 PY (CI: 15.2-51.7). ITCs lost their insecticidal efficacy within 6 months of deployment, necessitating re-treatment with insecticide. Entomological indicators did not show statistically significant differences between ITC and non-ITC clusters. It's unclear how the lack of protective efficacy reported here is attributable to simple failure of the intervention to protect against Ae. aegypti bites, or the presence of a faulty intervention during much of the follow-up period. The higher risk of dengue seroconversion that was detected in the ITC clusters may have arisen due to a false sense of security that inadvertently led to less routine protective behaviors on the part of households that received the ITCs. Our study provides important lessons learned for conducting cluster randomized trials for vector control interventions against Aedes-transmitted virus infections.
Comprehensive, longitudinal field studies that monitor both disease and vector populations for dengue viruses are urgently needed as a pre-requisite for developing locally adaptable prevention ...programs or to appropriately test and license new vaccines.
We report the results from such a study spanning 5 years in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru where DENV infection was monitored serologically among approximately 2,400 members of a neighborhood-based cohort and through school-based absenteeism surveillance for active febrile illness among a subset of this cohort. At baseline, 80% of the study population had DENV antibodies, seroprevalence increased with age, and significant geographic variation was observed, with neighborhood-specific age-adjusted rates ranging from 67.1 to 89.9%. During the first 15 months, when DENV-1 and DENV-2 were co-circulating, population-based incidence rates ranged from 2-3 infections/100 person-years (p-years). The introduction of DENV-3 during the last half of 2001 was characterized by 3 distinct periods: amplification over at least 5-6 months, replacement of previously circulating serotypes, and epidemic transmission when incidence peaked at 89 infections/100 p-years.
Neighborhood-specific baseline seroprevalence rates were not predictive of geographic incidence patterns prior to the DENV-3 introduction, but were closely mirrored during the invasion of this serotype. Transmission varied geographically, with peak incidence occurring at different times among the 8 geographic zones in approximately 16 km(2) of the city. The lag from novel serotype introduction to epidemic transmission and knowledge of spatially explicit areas of elevated risk should be considered for more effective application of limited resources for dengue prevention.
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