Energy strategy of the European Union and Croatia specify the focus on generating energy from renewable sources as an important basis for achieving sustainable development. The aim of the paper is to ...quantify economic effects of the renewable energy sources plants deployment in Croatia. Indirect and induced effects of deploying and operating such plants have been quantified based on an input-output model. Whereas the open input-output model quantifies indirect effects, the model closed by individual consumption additionally includes induced effects related to the increase in income of the household sector. The total effects have been quantified separately for the investment channel and the channel of intermediate consumption. The results indicate that there are positive multiplicative effects related to the deployment and operation of the plants based on renewable sources in Croatia. The same amount of investments results in the highest gross value added and employment for smaller hydropower plants and biogas, whereas multiplicative effects of the wind power plants are lower due to the high share of imported equipment. The policy of fostering renewable sources will potentially have more intensive effects on the national economy if the energy and industrial strategy are better harmonised in the future.
•Deployment of renewable energy in Croatia induce positive economic effects.•Gross value added multipliers are the highest for hydropower and biogas plants.•Lower total effects of wind power plants due to high share of imported equipment.•Harmonisation of energy and industrial policy could lead to more intensive effects.
Cilj
ovog rada je izrada dugoročnih projekcija gospodarskih kretanja u Republici
Hrvatskoj za razdoblje do 2050. godine. Dugoročne projekcije kretanja
gospodarstva korisne su radi pravovremenog ...uočavanja ograničenja i potencijalnih
izazova u budućem razdoblju vezanih uz različita područja: demografske
promjene, fiskalnu održivost, zaštitu okoliša i mnoge druge aspekte. Izrada
projekcija temelji se na Cobb-Douglasovoj tipu funkcije proizvodnje koja u
svojim dugoročnim projekcijama koristi Europska komisija za sve zemlje članice.
Dugoročna kretanja gospodarstva proizlaze iz demografskih projekcija, te upotrebe
proizvodnih faktora, rada i kapitala. No, najveća nepoznanica ostaje kretanje
proizvodnosti nekog društva u dugom roku. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na
potrebu značajnog podizanja efikasnosti investicija i ukupne proizvodnosti
proizvodnih faktora, kao i povećanje stopa aktivnosti stanovništva na tržištu
rada. Na taj način se, u određenoj mjeri, mogu ublažiti negativna demografska
kretanja i očekivano smanjenje broja stanovnika u radnoj dobi u budućem
razdoblju. Izrada
dugoročnih projekcija uvijek je povezana s visokom razinom neizvjesnosti o
kretanju brojnih varijabli u budućem razdoblju što utječe na rezultate
projekcije. Prezentiranim rezultatima i zaključcima u ovom radu upotpunjena su
relativno oskudna istraživanja o analiziranoj problematici u Republici
Hrvatskoj. Prikazani alternativni scenariji rasta razine gospodarske
aktivnosti, trebaju poslužiti kao podloga za izradu različitih brojnih strateških
dokumenata koji definiraju srednjoročne i dugoročne politike, poput energetske,
regionalne, industrijske, demografske, zdravstvene, zaštite okoliša i slično. Rezultati
istraživanja ukazuju da će prosječna stopa gospodarskog rasta u razdoblju do
2050. godina u Republici Hrvatskoj iznositi od 1,1 posto (bazni scenarij) do
najviše 1,9 posto, ovisno o pretpostavkama. Stopa rasta potencijalnog BDP-a
više ovisi o kretanju faktorske proizvodnosti, nego o demografskim kretanjima.
This paper tests the hypothesis that incentives for renewable energy sources contribute to economic development in Croatia. The aim of the paper is to quantify the total effects of wind power plant ...deployment on the Croatian economy in terms of employment and gross value. Indirect and induced effects are spread over the value added chain of producers of investment and intermediate goods and services required for wind power plant deployment and operation. The open input-output model is used for quantifying indirect effects. The closed input output model, which assumes endogenous personal consumption, is applied for quantifying total effects, which includes the effects of induced personal consumption. The gross value added and employment type I and type II multipliers related to wind power plants in Croatia were calculated separately for the investment and intermediate consumption channel. The results show positive indirect and induced effects relating to the deployment of wind power plants in Croatia. They are less pronounced in comparison to previous studies due to the undeveloped domestic production of equipment required for wind power plant deployment. Apart from the manufacturing sector, which produces equipment incorporated into wind power plants, the total effects were significant for construction, transport, and other supporting industries.
Securing the availability of healthy food at affordable prices is of fundamental public interest. The formerly prevailing paradigm of the absolute superiority of free trade in the global food market ...is changing in favour of re-localization after vulnerabilities were exposed by the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent disorder in the global food market. Re-localization of food production could also have a positive impact on the environment, public health and sustainable local development. This paper analyses the trends and current conditions in the Croatian food market regarding the potential economic benefits of re-localization of food production. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the economic benefits of food re-localization in Croatia. The method of input–output analysis is applied to test hypotheses. Direct, indirect and induced effects of re-localization of food production are estimated and the results compared with other countries. The results confirm previous findings that re-localization of food production could stimulate the domestic economy. The multipliers estimated for Croatian agricultural and food production do not deviate significantly from the results published for other economies. Output multipliers related to the Croatian food sector are slightly lower than those estimated for new European Union members, while multipliers for the Croatian agriculture sector are in line with those estimated for the same group of countries. It is found that expenditures on domestic food products induce significantly larger economic effects in Croatia than expenditures on imported food. Import substitution and re-localization would also positively affect public finances. Re-localizing 10% of imports of agri-food products could increase the Croatian GDP by 0.32%. The employment effects would be even larger since labour intensity in the food and agriculture sectors is high.
The aim of this paper is to determine the socio-economic effects of investing in an energy-efficient renovation of public buildings in the Republic of Croatia. Valorization of economic effects is ...based on the gross value added and jobs that were induced by energy renovation. Analysis techniques of an open and closed input-output model were used for the quantification of multiplicative economic effects connected to the energy renovation. While the open input-output model quantifies indirect effects, the model closed by personal expenses quantifies induced effects which are the result of the income growth in the household sector induced by direct and indirect effects of investments in the renovation of public buildings. The results indicate positive economic effects of investing in the energy renovation of public building. Total effects include short-term effects, during the implementation period of the renovation project, as well as long-term effects related to the energy savings and redirecting the resources to another category of final expenses. Besides having a positive effect on the construction sector, energy renovation encourages the activity of other sectors involved in the value-added chain of the construction industry.
Cilj je ovoga rada, analizom multiplikativnih učinaka i intenziteta regionalne povezanosti, identificirati sektore s najvećim potencijalom za ublažavanje negativnih gospodarskih posljedica širenja ...COVID-19 virusa u Hrvatskoj. Hrvatska je podijeljena u dvije regije: Kontinentalna Hrvatska i Jadranska Hrvatska. U izradi regionalnih input-output tablica korištena je metodologija međusektorskih lokacijskih kvocijenata (Cross-industry location quotient, CILQ). Metoda se temelji na specijalizaciji pojedinih regija u proizvodnji određenih skupina proizvoda, a temeljem čega se nacionalni tehnički koeficijenti prilagođavaju na razini pojedinih regija. U istraživačkom smislu doprinos rada temelji se na nepostojanju empirijske literature koja bi se bavila regionalnom input-output analizom za hrvatsko gospodarstvo. Rezultati rada mogu se koristiti i kao podloga za definiranje izlazne ekonomske strategije usmjerene na oporavak gospodarstva i brži izlazak iz recesije. Najveći multiplikativni učinci i najveći intenzitet regionalne povezanosti uočen je u određenim sektorima prerađivačke industrije, poljoprivredi i građevinarstvu. Ova skupina djelatnosti može se uz određene mjere opreza odvijati na dosadašnji način bez velikih rizika za širenje virusa. Poticanje ovih aktivnosti daje pozitivne rezultate već u kratkom roku, a zbog visokih multiplikativnih učinaka, pozitivni poticaj širi se i na ostale djelatnosti i regije. Osim ovih djelatnosti naglasak treba biti i na unapređivanju sektora zdravstva i sektora informacijsko-komunikacijskih tehnologija, kod kojih su neizravni gospodarski učinci nešto niži, ali koji će biti ključni za nesmetano odvijanje gospodarske aktivnosti u budućem razdoblju. Sektor turizma ima vrlo plitke multiplikatine učinke, ali nadprosječno velik udio isporuka za finalnu potrošnju, a time i utjecaj na prihode državnog proračuna.
The aim of the paper is to identify the sectors with the highest potential to mitigate the negative economic consequences of the spread of COVID-19 virus in Croatia based on the multiplicative effects and intensity of regional integration. Croatia has been divided in two regions, Continental Croatia and Adriatic Croatia. Cross-industry location quotient (CILQ) methodology was used to compile the regional input-output tables. The method is based on the specialization of individual regions in the production of specific groups of products, based on which national technical coefficients are adjusted at the level of individual regions. The contribution of the research is based on the lack of empirical literature that would deal with regional input-output analysis for the Croatian economy. Results of this paper can be used as a basis for defining economic exit strategy aimed at faster recovery from the recession. The highest multiplicative effects and the highest intensity of regional integration have been observed in manufacturing, agriculture and construction sectors. This group of activities can, with some precautions, take place so far without the high risk of spreading the virus. Stimulation of these activities results in positive effects even in the short term. Due to the high multiplicative effects, a positive impulse will spread to other activities and regions. In addition to these activities, emphasis should also be placed on improving health system and information and communication technology sector, where indirect economic effects are slightly lower but will be crucial for the smooth running of economic activity in the future. Tourism sector has shallow multiplier, but above average share of final uses. It has significant impact on government budget revenues.
The goal of this article is to provide a deeper insight to the overall contribution of the export of food products to the Croatian economy and to estimate the direct and indirect impact of the ...international competitiveness of food producers on other domestic sectors. The authors measure the importance of the food sector by employing both the constant market share (CMS) and the input-output analysis. The results indicate that a loss in competitiveness in the Croatian food industry was the most important factor that determined the decreasing share of national companies in the period from 2009, when the global recession started, up to 2013, when Croatia joined the EU. EU membership strongly and positively influenced the performance of Croatian food exports. The negative trend regarding the share of the international food market was reversed. Besides having a direct impact on the export performance of the food industry, the international competitiveness of food producers indirectly affects other domestic companies whose products are used as intermediate inputs in the food industry. The study also presents a benchmark of results with previous research for EU countries, which rarely included Croatia before the accession in 2013. As far as output and value added are concerned, multipliers for the food industry are relatively significant and higher than the national average, and the food industry could be assessed as one of the key Croatian economic sectors.
Over the past two decades, the issue of regional convergence in the European Union has been the subject of a wide range of empirical research. This paper aims to provide more information on the ...differences in regional growth patterns of new member states (NMS), as well as Croatia, in addition to the factors influencing regional disparities within each country. This research provides an analysis of regional convergence in the period 2001-2008 at the NUTS II and NUTS III level.
The most widely used model for testing convergence hypotheses is beta-convergence analysis. Other factors commonly included in the econometric modelling of convergence are demographic variables, labour market conditions, industrial structure, institutional factors and overall government policy. The main hypothesis is that the process of regional convergence in NMS and Croatia is not strong enough to dominate over other factors, influencing regional potential growth (mainly industry structure and quality of human capital). Absolute β-convergence can be found at the national level for EU countries. Convergence also can be found for NMS regions, but the pace of convergence on the regional level is lower in comparison to the national level and the estimated β-convergence parameter is less significant.
Economic Aspects of Sin Industry in Croatia Lovrinčević, Željko; Mikulić, Davor; Orlović, Ante
Društvena istraživanja/Društvena istraživanja,
9/2015, Volume:
24, Issue:
2
Journal Article
PDF
