Sea level rise and extreme weather events threaten the livelihoods and possibly the long-term existence of whole island nations. While the media, policy, and often scientific arenas essentially focus ...their attention on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which are widely recognised as hotspots of global climate change, the situation of the numerous other vulnerable island territories has been relatively neglected. As a result, the focus on SIDS has paved the way for mainstream adaptation research and, in turn, for biases in the interpretation of climate change vulnerability and risks of small islands in general. Here, we argue that such an overly narrow scope severely limits our understanding of island-specific issues that influence island societies’ adaptability to on-going and future climate change. This article reviews the current perspective on challenges and opportunities for climate change adaptation on SIDS and compares it with other types of island territories, especially dependent islands of continental states and semi-autonomous sub-national island jurisdictions (SNIJ). This comparison reveals that despite critical socio-political differences between the respective island types, more general lessons can be learned as island territories at large face similar issues both regarding the drivers of vulnerability and exposure and the adaptation measures needed. We propose an analytical framework for looking ‘beyond SIDS’ that includes the recognition of critical issues (asymmetrical governance structures, archipelagic constellations, inter-island connections) that shape island societies’ vulnerability and leeway for adaptation to climate-related hazards.
Global adaptation after Paris Magnan, Alexandre K.; Ribera, Teresa
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
06/2016, Volume:
352, Issue:
6291
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Besides achieving major decisions on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation, the 2015 Paris climate change Agreement (1) also initiated a process to "establish a global goal on adaptation" ...(Article 7.1), a crucial step that encourages parties to the agreement to go beyond the restrictive and historic funding-focused lens that structured United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) talks on adaptation until now (2-4). Suggesting that global adaptation is as important as global mitigation is an important shift in international climate negotiations that highlights the importance of not uncoupling 21st-century mitigation and adaptation storylines. After all, one cannot define the "well below +2 degree C" long-term temperature goal as sustainable without providing evidence on societies' ability to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of such warming (5). Although this represents great progress, we discuss three key challenges around the development of a global adaptation framework within the UNFCCC: defining a global goal, identifying tracking criteria, and anticipating political barriers. A major underlying condition is that the framework must make sense from both a negotiation and a scientific perspective.
Climate change poses an existential threat to Small Island Developing States (SIDS). They have played a leading role in raising awareness of climate change on the international stage and advocating ...for strong climate action, notably through the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). Despite their heterogeneity, they succeeded in building a common diplomatic discourse and influencing strategy, and mobilized political leaders as well as talented negotiators and advisors.
Small Island States were a crucial group in the negotiating period up to, during the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), and for the entry into force of the Paris Agreement. SIDS succeeded to secure their special circumstances as vulnerable countries, demonstrated leadership in raising ambition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to help secure an ambitious long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming to below 1.5 °C, and advanced the complex debate on loss and damage.
Small Island States face major challenges to advance their leadership on climate change moving forward: securing immediate actions for those particularly vulnerable countries and increasing their influence within and outside the climate change negotiations. For Small Island states, the 1.5 °C goal should be considered “the visible part of the iceberg” for their diplomacy in a post-Paris context.
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of ...societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.
The Paris agreement target of limiting global surface warming to 1.5-2°C compared to pre-industrial levels by 2100 will heavily impact the ocean. While ambitious mitigation and adaptation are both ...needed, the ocean provides major opportunities for action to reduce climate change globally and its impacts on vital ecosystems and ecosystem services. A comprehensive and systematic assessment of 13 global- and local-scale, ocean-based measures was performed to help steer the development and implementation of technologies and actions towards a sustainable outcome. We show that (1) all measures have tradeoffs and multiple criteria must be used for a comprehensive assessment of their potential, (2) greatest benefit is derived by combining global and local solutions, some of which could be implemented or scaled-up immediately, (3) some measures are too uncertain to be recommended yet, (4) political consistency must be achieved through effective cross-scale governance mechanisms, (5) scientific effort must focus on effectiveness, co-benefits, disbenefits, and costs of poorly tested as well as new and emerging measures.
Most studies addressing the future of atoll islands focused on ocean-climate drivers of risk, especially sea-level rise, and disregarded the role of local human disturbances. However, the future ...habitability of these countries will critically depend on the response of inhabited and exploited islands to ocean-climate pressures. Here, using the Maldives as a case study and based on a database including 608 islands (representing 56.8% and 86.0% of the country's land area and population, respectively), we assess the influence of human disturbances on island natural response capacity over the last decade. We show that over the last decade, island change was rapid and primarily controlled by anthropogenic drivers. The great majority of inhabited and exploited islands now exhibit an altered-to-annihilated capacity to respond to ocean-climate pressures, which has major implications for future research and adaptation strategies. First, future studies should consider not only climate, but also anthropogenic tipping points (in contrast to climate tipping points). Second, adaptation strategies must be implemented without delay, despite climate uncertainties, in order to contain any additional detrimental path-dependency effects. This study provides critical information for better addressing the attribution issue under climate change, and a replicable rapid assessment frame.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) states that climate change and ocean acidification are altering the oceans at a rate that is unprecedented compared ...with the recent past, leading to multifaceted impacts on marine ecosystems, associated goods and services, and human societies. AR5 underlined key uncertainties that remain regarding how synergistic changes in the ocean are likely to affect human systems, and how humans are likely to respond to these events. As climate change research has accelerated rapidly following AR5, an updated synthesis of available knowledge is necessary to identify emerging evidence, and to thereby better inform policy discussions. This paper reviews the literature to capture corroborating, conflicting, and novel findings published following the cut-off date for contribution to AR5. Specifically, we highlight key scientific developments on the impacts of climate-induced changes in the ocean on key socioeconomic sectors, including fisheries, aquaculture and tourism. New evidence continues to support a climate-induced redistribution of benefits and losses at multiple scales and across coastal and marine socio-ecological systems, partly resulting from species and ecosystem range shifts and changes in primary productivity. New efforts have been made to characterize and value ecosystem services in the context of climate change, with specific relevance to ecosystem-based adaptation. Recent studies have also explored synergistic interactions between climatic drivers, and have found strong variability between impacts on species at different life stages. Although climate change may improve conditions for some types of freshwater aquaculture, potentially providing alternative opportunities to adapt to impacts on wild capture fisheries, ocean acidification poses a risk to shellfish fisheries and aquaculture. The risk of increased prevalence of disease under warmer temperatures is uncertain, and may detrimentally affect human health. Climate change may also induce changes in tourism flows, leading to substantial geospatial shifts in economic costs and benefits associated with tourism revenue and coastal infrastructure protection and repairs. While promising, ecosystem-based coastal adaptation approaches are still emerging, and require an improved understanding of key ecosystem services and values for coastal communities in order to assess risk, aid coastal development planning, and build decision support systems.
PDF
