HIV prevalence varies markedly throughout Africa, and it is often presumed areas of higher HIV prevalence (i.e., hotspots) serve as sources of infection to neighboring areas of lower prevalence. ...However, the small-scale geography of migration networks and movement of HIV-positive individuals between communities is poorly understood. Here, we use population-based data from ~22,000 persons of known HIV status to characterize migratory patterns and their relationship to HIV among 38 communities in Rakai, Uganda with HIV prevalence ranging from 9 to 43%. We find that migrants moving into hotspots had significantly higher HIV prevalence than migrants moving elsewhere, but out-migration from hotspots was geographically dispersed, contributing minimally to HIV burden in destination locations. Our results challenge the assumption that high prevalence hotspots are drivers of transmission in regional epidemics, instead suggesting that migrants with high HIV prevalence, particularly women, selectively migrate to these areas.
Uganda has one of the highest rates of alcohol use in sub-Saharan Africa but prevalence and correlates of drinking are undocumented in the Rakai region, one of the earliest epicenters of the HIV/AIDS ...epidemic in East Africa.
We analyzed cross-sectional data from 18,700 persons (8,690 men, 10,010 women) aged 15-49 years, living in agrarian, trading and fishing communities and participating in the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) between March 2015 and September 2016. Logistic regression models assessed associations between past year alcohol use and sociodemographic characteristics, other drug use and HIV status, controlling for age, religion, education, occupation, marital status, and household socioeconomic status.
Past year alcohol prevalence was 45%. Odds of drinking were significantly higher in men (versus women) and fishing communities (versus agrarian areas). Odds of drinking increased with age, previous (versus current) marriage and past year drug use. By occupation, highest odds of drinking were among fishermen and (in women) bar/restaurant workers. Alcohol-related consequences were more commonly reported by male (vs. females) drinkers, among whom up to 35% reported alcohol dependence symptoms (e.g., unsteady gait). HIV status was strongly associated with alcohol use in unadjusted but not adjusted models.
Alcohol use differed by gender, community type and occupation. Being male, living in a fishing community and working as a fisherman or restaurant/bar worker (among women) were associated with higher odds of drinking. Alcohol reduction programs should be implemented in Uganda's fishing communities and among people working in high risk occupations (e.g., fishermen and restaurant/bar workers).
We conducted a retrospective population-based study to describe longitudinal patterns of prevalence, incidence, discontinuation, resumption, and durability of substantial HIV risk behaviors (SHR) for ...pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) eligibility.
The study was conducted among HIV-negative study participants aged 15-49 years who participated in survey rounds of the Rakai Community Cohort Study between August 2011 and June 2018. Substantial HIV risk was defined based on the Uganda national PrEP eligibility as reporting sexual intercourse with >1 partner of unknown HIV status, nonmarital sex without a condom, having genital ulcers, or having transactional sex. Resumption of SHR meant resuming of SHR after stopping SHR, whereas persistence of SHR meant SHR on >1 consecutive visit. We used generalized estimation equations with log-binomial regression models and robust variance to estimate survey-specific prevalence ratios; Generalized estimation equations with modified Poisson regression models and robust variance to estimate incidence ratios for incidence, discontinuation, and resumption of PrEP eligibility.
Incidence of PrEP eligibility increased from 11.4/100 person-years (pys) in the first intersurvey period to 13.9/100 pys (adjusted incidence rate ratios = 1.28; 95%CI = 1.10-1.30) and declined to 12.6/100 pys (adjusted incidence rate ratios = 1.06; 95%CI = 0.98-1.15) in the second and third intersurvey periods, respectively. Discontinuation rates of SHR for PrEP eligibility were stable (ranging 34.9/100 pys-37.3/100 pys; P = 0.207), whereas resumption reduced from 25.0/100 pys to 14.5/100 pys ( P < 0.001). PrEP eligibility episodes lasted a median time of 20 months (IQR = 10-51).
Pre-exposure prophylaxis use should be tailored to the dynamic nature of PrEP eligibility. Preventive-effective adherence should be adopted for assessment of attrition in PrEP programs.
The efficacy of voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention in men was demonstrated in 3 randomized trials. This led to the adoption of VMMC as an ...integral component of the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) combination HIV prevention program in sub-Saharan Africa. However, evidence on the individual-level effectiveness of VMMC programs in real-world, programmatic settings is limited.
A cohort of initially uncircumcised, non-Muslim, HIV-uninfected men in the Rakai Community Cohort Study in Uganda was followed between 2009 and 2016 during VMMC scale-up. Self-reported VMMC status was collected and HIV tests performed at surveys conducted every 18 months. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of HIV acquisition in newly circumcised vs uncircumcised men.
A total of 3916 non-Muslim men were followed for 17 088 person-years (PY). There were 1338 newly reported VMMCs (9.8/100 PY). Over the study period, the median age of men adopting VMMC declined from 28 years (interquartile range IQR, 21-35 years) to 22 years (IQR, 18-29 years) (P for trend < .001). HIV incidence was 0.40/100 PY (20/4992.8 PY) among newly circumcised men and 0.98/100 PY (118/12 095.1 PY) among uncircumcised men with an adjusted IRR of 0.47 (95% confidence interval, .28-.78). The effectiveness of VMMC was sustained with increasing time from surgery and was similar across age groups and calendar time.
VMMC programs are highly effective in preventing HIV acquisition in men. The observed effectiveness is consistent with efficacy in clinical trials and supports current recommendations that VMMC is a key component of programs to reduce HIV incidence.
Understanding the extent to which HIV burden differs across communities and the drivers of local disparities is crucial for an effective and targeted HIV response. We assessed community-level ...variations in HIV prevalence, risk factors, and treatment and prevention service uptake in Rakai, Uganda.
The Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) is an open, population-based cohort of people aged 15-49 years in 40 communities. Participants are HIV tested and interviewed to obtain sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information. RCCS data from Aug 10, 2011, to May 30, 2013, were used to classify communities as agrarian (n=27), trading (n=9), or lakeside fishing sites (n=4). We mapped HIV prevalence with Bayesian methods, and characterised variability across and within community classifications. We also assessed differences in HIV risk factors and uptake of antiretroviral therapy and male circumcision between community types.
17 119 individuals were included, 9215 (54%) of whom were female. 9931 participants resided in agrarian, 3318 in trading, and 3870 in fishing communities. Median HIV prevalence was higher in fishing communities (42%, range 38-43) than in trading (17%, 11-21) and agrarian communities (14%, 9-26). Antiretroviral therapy use was significantly lower in both men and women in fishing communities than in trading (age-adjusted prevalence risk ratio in men 0·64, 95% CI 0·44-0·97; women 0·53, 0·42-0·66) and agrarian communities (men 0·55, 0·42-0·72; women 0·65, 0·54-0·79), as was circumcision coverage among men (vs trading 0·48, 0·42-0·55; vs agrarian 0·64, 0·56-0·72). Self-reported risk behaviours were significantly higher in men than in women and in fishing communities than in other community types.
Substantial heterogeneity in HIV prevalence, risk factors, and service uptake in Rakai, Uganda, emphasises the need for local surveillance and the design of targeted HIV responses. High HIV burden, risk behaviours, and low use of combination HIV prevention in fishing communities make these populations a priority for intervention.
National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, and the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Division of Intramural Research, National Institutes of Health; the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research.
International and global organisations advocate targeting interventions to areas of high HIV prevalence (ie, hotspots). To better understand the potential benefits of geo-targeted control, we ...assessed the extent to which HIV hotspots along Lake Victoria sustain transmission in neighbouring populations in south-central Uganda.
We did a population-based survey in Rakai, Uganda, using data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study. The study surveyed all individuals aged 15–49 years in four high-prevalence Lake Victoria fishing communities and 36 neighbouring inland communities. Viral RNA was deep sequenced from participants infected with HIV who were antiretroviral therapy-naive during the observation period. Phylogenetic analysis was used to infer partial HIV transmission networks, including direction of transmission. Reconstructed networks were interpreted through data for current residence and migration history. HIV transmission flows within and between high-prevalence and low-prevalence areas were quantified adjusting for incomplete sampling of the population.
Between Aug 10, 2011, and Jan 30, 2015, data were collected for the Rakai Community Cohort Study. 25 882 individuals participated, including an estimated 75·7% of the lakeside population and 16·2% of the inland population in the Rakai region of Uganda. 5142 participants were HIV-positive (2703 13·7% in inland and 2439 40·1% in fishing communities). 3878 (75·4%) people who were HIV-positive did not report antiretroviral therapy use, of whom 2652 (68·4%) had virus deep-sequenced at sufficient quality for phylogenetic analysis. 446 transmission networks were reconstructed, including 293 linked pairs with inferred direction of transmission. Adjusting for incomplete sampling, an estimated 5·7% (95% credibility interval 4·4–7·3) of transmissions occurred within lakeside areas, 89·2% (86·0–91·8) within inland areas, 1·3% (0·6–2·6) from lakeside to inland areas, and 3·7% (2·3–5·8) from inland to lakeside areas.
Cross-community HIV transmissions between Lake Victoria hotspots and surrounding inland populations are infrequent and when they occur, virus more commonly flows into rather than out of hotspots. This result suggests that targeted interventions to these hotspots will not alone control the epidemic in inland populations, where most transmissions occur. Thus, geographical targeting of high prevalence areas might not be effective for broader epidemic control depending on underlying epidemic dynamics.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, the Division of Intramural Research of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the World Bank, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been associated with delays throughout the HIV care continuum. This study explored prospective associations between experiences of past-year IPV and two HIV care ...outcomes in the context of current universal test and treat guidelines using two consecutive rounds of an ongoing HIV surveillance study conducted in the Rakai region of Uganda. Longitudinal logistic regression models examined associations between IPV, use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral load suppression (VS), adjusting for outcome variables at baseline. To address differences in ART retention by IPV, propensity scores were used to create inverse-probability-of-treatment-and-censoring-weighted (IPTCW) models. At baseline, of 1923 women with HIV (WWH), 34.6%, 26.5%, 13.5% reported past-year verbal, physical and sexual IPV; a lower proportion of persons who experienced physical IPV (79.4%) were VS than those who did not (84.3%;
= 0.01). The proportion VS at baseline also significantly differed by exposure to verbal IPV (
= 0.03). However, in adjusted longitudinal models, IPV was not associated with lower odds of ART use or VS at follow-up. Among WWH in the Rakai region, IPV does not appear to be a barrier to subsequent ART use or VS. However, given the prevalence of IPV in this population, interventions are needed.
•Alcohol use is adversely associated with viral suppression (VS).•Antiretroviral therapy mediates the relationship between alcohol use and VS.•Associations between alcohol use and VS differ by ...gender.
Alcohol use is common among persons living with HIV (PWH) in Uganda and associated with poor HIV care outcomes; findings regarding the relationship between alcohol use and viral suppression (VS) have been inconclusive.
Data from two rounds (2017–2020) of the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open population-based cohort study in the Rakai region, Uganda, were analyzed. Two alcohol exposures were explored: past year alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences. Multivariable models (GEE) were used to estimate associations between alcohol exposures and VS for the overall sample and stratified by sex, adjusting for repeated measurement. Causal mediation by ART use was explored.
Over half (55 %) of participants (n = 3823 PWH) reported alcohol use at baseline; 37.8 % of those reporting alcohol use reported alcohol-related consequences. ART use and VS at baseline significantly differed by alcohol use with person reporting alcohol use being less likely to be on ART or VS. Alcohol use was significantly associated with decreased odds of VS among women but not men (adj. OR 0.72 95 % CI 0.58−0.89, p = 0.0031). However, among males who use alcohol, experiencing alcohol-related consequences was significantly associated with decreased odds of VS (adj. OR 0.69 95 % CI 0.54−0.88, p = 0.0034). The relationships between both alcohol exposures and VS were not significant in models restricted to persons on ART.
We provide sex-stratified estimates of associations between two alcohol measures and VS in the context of current HIV treatment guidelines. This study confirms that alcohol use is adversely associated with VS but ART use mediates this pathway, suggesting that initiation and retention on ART are critical steps to addressing alcohol-related disparities in VS.
Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been associated with delays throughout the HIV care continuum. This study explored prospective associations between experiences of past-year IPV and two HIV care ...outcomes in the context of current universal test and treat guidelines using two consecutive rounds of an ongoing HIV surveillance study conducted in the Rakai region of Uganda. Longitudinal logistic regression models examined associations between IPV, use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral load suppression (VS), adjusting for outcome variables at baseline. To address differences in ART retention by IPV, propensity scores were used to create inverse-probability-of-treatment-and-censoring-weighted (IPTCW) models. At baseline, of 1923 women with HIV (WWH), 34.6%, 26.5%, 13.5% reported past-year verbal, physical and sexual IPV; a lower proportion of persons who experienced physical IPV (79.4%) were VS than those who did not (84.3%; p = 0.01). The proportion VS at baseline also significantly differed by exposure to verbal IPV (p = 0.03). However, in adjusted longitudinal models, IPV was not associated with lower odds of ART use or VS at follow-up. Among WWH in the Rakai region, IPV does not appear to be a barrier to subsequent ART use or VS. However, given the prevalence of IPV in this population, interventions are needed.
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