Land-use and climate change are among the greatest threats facing biodiversity, but understanding their combined effects has been hampered by modelling and data limitations, resulting in part from ...the very different scales at which land-use and climate processes operate. I combine two different modelling paradigms to predict the separate and combined (additive) effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate communities under four different scenarios. I predict that climate-change effects are likely to become a major pressure on biodiversity in the coming decades, probably matching or exceeding the effects of land-use change by 2070. The combined effects of both pressures are predicted to lead to an average cumulative loss of 37.9% of species from vertebrate communities under 'business as usual' (uncertainty ranging from 15.7% to 54.2%). Areas that are predicted to experience the effects of both pressures are concentrated in tropical grasslands and savannahs. The results have important implications for the conservation of biodiversity in future, and for the ability of biodiversity to support important ecosystem functions, upon which humans rely.
Several previous studies have investigated changes in insect biodiversity, with some highlighting declines and others showing turnover in species composition without net declines
. Although research ...has shown that biodiversity changes are driven primarily by land-use change and increasingly by climate change
, the potential for interaction between these drivers and insect biodiversity on the global scale remains unclear. Here we show that the interaction between indices of historical climate warming and intensive agricultural land use is associated with reductions of almost 50% in the abundance and 27% in the number of species within insect assemblages relative to those in less-disturbed habitats with lower rates of historical climate warming. These patterns are particularly evident in the tropical realm, whereas some positive responses of biodiversity to climate change occur in non-tropical regions in natural habitats. A high availability of nearby natural habitat often mitigates reductions in insect abundance and richness associated with agricultural land use and substantial climate warming but only in low-intensity agricultural systems. In such systems, in which high levels (75% cover) of natural habitat are available, abundance and richness were reduced by 7% and 5%, respectively, compared with reductions of 63% and 61% in places where less natural habitat is present (25% cover). Our results show that insect biodiversity will probably benefit from mitigating climate change, preserving natural habitat within landscapes and reducing the intensity of agriculture.
Land use change-for example, the conversion of natural habitats to agricultural or urban ecosystems-is widely recognized to influence the risk and emergence of zoonotic disease in humans
. However, ...whether such changes in risk are underpinned by predictable ecological changes remains unclear. It has been suggested that habitat disturbance might cause predictable changes in the local diversity and taxonomic composition of potential reservoir hosts, owing to systematic, trait-mediated differences in species resilience to human pressures
. Here we analyse 6,801 ecological assemblages and 376 host species worldwide, controlling for research effort, and show that land use has global and systematic effects on local zoonotic host communities. Known wildlife hosts of human-shared pathogens and parasites overall comprise a greater proportion of local species richness (18-72% higher) and total abundance (21-144% higher) in sites under substantial human use (secondary, agricultural and urban ecosystems) compared with nearby undisturbed habitats. The magnitude of this effect varies taxonomically and is strongest for rodent, bat and passerine bird zoonotic host species, which may be one factor that underpins the global importance of these taxa as zoonotic reservoirs. We further show that mammal species that harbour more pathogens overall (either human-shared or non-human-shared) are more likely to occur in human-managed ecosystems, suggesting that these trends may be mediated by ecological or life-history traits that influence both host status and tolerance to human disturbance
. Our results suggest that global changes in the mode and the intensity of land use are creating expanding hazardous interfaces between people, livestock and wildlife reservoirs of zoonotic disease.
Global biodiversity is undergoing rapid declines, driven in large part by changes to land use and climate. Global models help us to understand the consequences of environmental changes for ...biodiversity, but tend to neglect important geographical variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. Here we test whether biodiversity responses to climate change and land-use change differ among biomes (geographical units that have marked differences in environment and species composition). We find the strongest negative responses to both pressures in tropical biomes and in the Mediterranean. A further analysis points towards similar underlying drivers for the sensitivity to each pressure: we find both greater reductions in species richness in the types of land use most disturbed by humans and more negative predicted responses to climate change in areas of lower climatic seasonality, and in areas where a greater proportion of species are near their upper temperature limit. Within the land most modified by humans, reductions in biodiversity were particularly large in regions where humans have come to dominate the land more recently. Our results will help to improve predictions of how biodiversity is likely to change with ongoing climatic and land-use changes, pointing toward particularly large declines in the tropics where much future agricultural expansion is expected to occur. This finding could help to inform the development of the post-2020 biodiversity framework, by highlighting the under-studied regions where biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest.
Protected areas are widely considered essential for biodiversity conservation. However, few global studies have demonstrated that protection benefits a broad range of species. Here, using a new ...global biodiversity database with unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage, we compare four biodiversity measures at sites sampled in multiple land uses inside and outside protected areas. Globally, species richness is 10.6% higher and abundance 14.5% higher in samples taken inside protected areas compared with samples taken outside, but neither rarefaction-based richness nor endemicity differ significantly. Importantly, we show that the positive effects of protection are mostly attributable to differences in land use between protected and unprotected sites. Nonetheless, even within some human-dominated land uses, species richness and abundance are higher in protected sites. Our results reinforce the global importance of protected areas but suggest that protection does not consistently benefit species with small ranges or increase the variety of ecological niches.
Pollinating species are in decline globally, with land use an important driver. However, most of the evidence on which these claims are made is patchy, based on studies with low taxonomic and ...geographic representativeness. Here, we model the effect of land-use type and intensity on global pollinator biodiversity, using a local-scale database covering 303 studies, 12,170 sites, and 4502 pollinating species. Relative to a primary vegetation baseline, we show that low levels of intensity can have beneficial effects on pollinator biodiversity. Within most anthropogenic land-use types however, increasing intensity is associated with significant reductions, particularly in urban (43% richness and 62% abundance reduction compared to the least intensive urban sites), and pasture (75% abundance reduction) areas. We further show that on cropland, the strongly negative response to intensity is restricted to tropical areas, and that the direction and magnitude of response differs among taxonomic groups. Our findings confirm widespread effects of land-use intensity on pollinators, most significantly in the tropics, where land use is predicted to change rapidly.
Most current research on land‐use intensification addresses its potential to either threaten biodiversity or to boost agricultural production. However, little is known about the simultaneous effects ...of intensification on biodiversity and yield. To determine the responses of species richness and yield to conventional intensification, we conducted a global meta‐analysis synthesizing 115 studies which collected data for both variables at the same locations. We extracted 449 cases that cover a variety of areas used for agricultural (crops, fodder) and silvicultural (wood) production. We found that, across all production systems and species groups, conventional intensification is successful in increasing yield (grand mean + 20.3%), but it also results in a loss of species richness (−8.9%). However, analysis of sub‐groups revealed inconsistent results. For example, small intensification steps within low intensity systems did not affect yield or species richness. Within high‐intensity systems species losses were non‐significant but yield gains were substantial (+15.2%). Conventional intensification within medium intensity systems revealed the highest yield increase (+84.9%) and showed the largest loss in species richness (−22.9%). Production systems differed in their magnitude of richness response, with insignificant changes in silvicultural systems and substantial losses in crop systems (−21.2%). In addition, this meta‐analysis identifies a lack of studies that collect robust biodiversity (i.e. beyond species richness) and yield data at the same sites and that provide quantitative information on land‐use intensity. Our findings suggest that, in many cases, conventional land‐use intensification drives a trade‐off between species richness and production. However, species richness losses were often not significantly different from zero, suggesting even conventional intensification can result in yield increases without coming at the expense of biodiversity loss. These results should guide future research to close existing research gaps and to understand the circumstances required to achieve such win‐win or win‐no‐harm situations in conventional agriculture.
To determine the responses of species richness and yield to conventional land‐use intensification, we conducted a global meta‐analysis. Across all production systems (food, fodder, wood), intensification increases yield (+20.3%), but also leads to a loss of species (−8.9%). Within low intensity systems, intensification did not affect yield or richness, while within medium intensity systems, the highest yield increase (+84.9%) and largest richness loss (−22.9%) were found. Conventional intensification often drives a trade‐off between richness and production. However, this meta‐analysis also highlights that—even conventional—intensification can result in yield increases without coming at the expense of biodiversity loss.
The body of ecological literature, which informs much of our knowledge of the global loss of biodiversity, has been experiencing rapid growth in recent decades. The increasing difficulty of ...synthesising this literature manually has simultaneously resulted in a growing demand for automated text mining methods. Within the domain of deep learning, large language models (LLMs) have been the subject of considerable attention in recent years due to great leaps in progress and a wide range of potential applications; however, quantitative investigation into their potential in ecology has so far been lacking.
In this work, we analyse the ability of GPT‐4 to extract information about invertebrate pests and pest controllers from s of articles on biological pest control, using a bespoke, zero‐shot prompt.
Our results show that the performance of GPT‐4 is highly competitive with other state‐of‐the‐art tools used for taxonomic named entity recognition and geographic location extraction tasks. On a held‐out test set, we show that species and geographic locations are extracted with F1‐scores of 99.8% and 95.3%, respectively, and highlight that the model can effectively distinguish between ecological roles of interest such as predators, parasitoids and pests. Moreover, we demonstrate the model's ability to effectively extract and predict taxonomic information across various taxonomic ranks. However, we do report a small number of cases of fabricated information (confabulations).
Due to a lack of specialised, pre‐trained ecological language models, general‐purpose LLMs may provide a promising way forward in ecology. Combined with tailored prompt engineering, such models can be employed for a wide range of text mining tasks in ecology, with the potential to greatly reduce time spent on manual screening and labelling of the literature.
Land use and related pressures have reduced local terrestrial biodiversity, but it is unclear how the magnitude of change relates to the recently proposed planetary boundary ("safe limit"). We ...estimate that land use and related pressures have already reduced local biodiversity intactness–the average proportion of natural biodiversity remaining in local ecosystems–beyond its recently proposed planetary boundary across 58.1% of the world's land surface, where 71.4% of the human population live. Biodiversity intactness within most biomes (especially grassland biomes), most biodiversity hotspots, and even some wilderness areas is inferred to be beyond the boundary. Such widespread transgression of safe limits suggests that biodiversity loss, if unchecked, will undermine efforts toward long-term sustainable development.
Ecological systematic reviews and meta‐analyses have significantly increased our understanding of global biodiversity decline. However, for some ecological groups, incomplete and biased datasets have ...hindered our ability to construct robust, predictive models. One such group consists of the animal pollinators. Approximately 88% of wild plant species are thought to be pollinated by animals, with an estimated annual value of $230–410 billion dollars. Here we apply text‐analysis to quantify the taxonomic and geographical distribution of the animal pollinator literature, both temporally and spatially. We show that the publication of pollinator literature increased rapidly in the 1980s and 1990s. Taxonomically, we show that the distribution of pollinator literature is concentrated in the honey bees (Apis) and bumble bees (Bombus), and geographically in North America and Europe. At least 25% of pollination‐related s mention a species of honey bee and at least 20% a species of bumble bee, and approximately 46% of s are focussed on either North America (32%) or Europe (14%). Although these results indicate strong taxonomic and geographic biases in the pollinator literature, a large number of studies outside North America and Europe do exist. We then discuss how text‐analysis could be used to shorten the literature search for ecological systematic reviews and meta‐analyses, and to address more applied questions related to pollinator biodiversity, such as the identification of likely interacting plant–pollinator pairs and the number of pollinating species.
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