Summary Background China has achieved Millennium Development Goal 4 to reduce under-5 mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. In this study, we estimated the national and subnational ...levels and causes of child mortality in China annually from 1996 to 2015 to draw implications for achievement of the SDGs for China and other low-income and middle-income countries. Methods In this systematic analysis, we adjusted empirical data on levels and causes of child mortality collected in the China Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System to generate representative estimates at the national and subnational levels. In adjusting the data, we considered the sampling design and probability, applied smoothing techniques to produce stable trends, fitted livebirth and age-specific death estimates to natvional estimates produced by the UN for international comparison, and partitioned national estimates of infrequent causes produced by independent sources to the subnational level. Findings Between 1996 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate in China declined from 50·8 per 1000 livebirths to 10·7 per 1000 livebirths, at an average annual rate of reduction of 8·2%. However, 181 600 children still died before their fifth birthday, with 93 400 (51·5%) deaths occurring in neonates. Great inequity exists in child mortality across regions and in urban versus rural areas. The leading causes of under-5 mortality in 2015 were congenital abnormalities (35 700 deaths, 95% uncertainty range UR 28 400–45 200), preterm birth complications (30 900 deaths, 24 200–40 800), and injuries (26 600 deaths, 21 000–33 400). Pneumonia contributed to a higher proportion of deaths in the western region of China than in the eastern and central regions, and injury was a main cause of death in rural areas. Variations in cause-of-death composition by age were also examined. The contribution of preterm birth complications to mortality decreased after the neonatal period; congenital abnormalities remained an important cause of mortality throughout infancy, whereas the contribution of injuries to mortality increased after the first year of life. Interpretation China has achieved a rapid reduction in child mortality in 1996–2015. The decline has been widespread across regions, urban and rural areas, age groups, and cause-of-death categories, but great disparities remain. The western region and rural areas and especially western rural areas should receive most attention in improving child survival through enhanced policy and programmes in the Sustainable Development Goals era. Continued investment is crucial in primary and secondary prevention of deaths due to congenital abnormalities, preterm birth complications, and injuries nationally, and of deaths due to pneumonia in western rural areas. The study also has implications for improving child survival and civil registration and vital statistics in other low-income and middle-income countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Background Lower extremity peripheral artery disease is the third leading cause of atherosclerotic cardiovascular morbidity, following coronary artery disease and stroke. This study provides ...the first comparison of the prevalence of peripheral artery disease between high-income countries (HIC) and low-income or middle-income countries (LMIC), establishes the primary risk factors for peripheral artery disease in these settings, and estimates the number of people living with peripheral artery disease regionally and globally. Methods We did a systematic review of the literature on the prevalence of peripheral artery disease in which we searched for community-based studies since 1997 that defined peripheral artery disease as an ankle brachial index (ABI) lower than or equal to 0·90. We used epidemiological modelling to define age-specific and sex-specific prevalence rates in HIC and in LMIC and combined them with UN population numbers for 2000 and 2010 to estimate the global prevalence of peripheral artery disease. Within a subset of studies, we did meta-analyses of odds ratios (ORs) associated with 15 putative risk factors for peripheral artery disease to estimate their effect size in HIC and LMIC. We then used the risk factors to predict peripheral artery disease numbers in eight WHO regions (three HIC and five LMIC). Findings 34 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria, 22 from HIC and 12 from LMIC, including 112 027 participants, of which 9347 had peripheral artery disease. Sex-specific prevalence rates increased with age and were broadly similar in HIC and LMIC and in men and women. The prevalence in HIC at age 45–49 years was 5·28% (95% CI 3·38–8·17%) in women and 5·41% (3·41–8·49%) in men, and at age 85–89 years, it was 18·38% (11·16–28·76%) in women and 18·83% (12·03–28·25%) in men. Prevalence in men was lower in LMIC than in HIC (2·89% 2·04–4·07% at 45–49 years and 14·94% 9·58–22·56% at 85–89 years). In LMIC, rates were higher in women than in men, especially at younger ages (6·31% 4·86–8·15% of women aged 45–49 years). Smoking was an important risk factor in both HIC and LMIC, with meta-OR for current smoking of 2·72 (95% CI 2·39–3·09) in HIC and 1·42 (1·25–1·62) in LMIC, followed by diabetes (1·88 1·66–2·14 vs 1·47 1·29–1·68), hypertension (1·55 1·42–1·71 vs 1·36 1·24–1·50), and hypercholesterolaemia (1·19 1·07–1·33 vs 1·14 1·03–1·25). Globally, 202 million people were living with peripheral artery disease in 2010, 69·7% of them in LMIC, including 54·8 million in southeast Asia and 45·9 million in the western Pacific Region. During the preceding decade the number of individuals with peripheral artery disease increased by 28·7% in LMIC and 13·1% in HIC. Interpretation In the 21st century, peripheral artery disease has become a global problem. Governments, non-governmental organisations, and the private sector in LMIC need to address the social and economic consequences, and assess the best strategies for optimum treatment and prevention of this disease. Funding Peripheral Arterial Disease Research Coalition (Europe).
Summary Background Trend data for causes of child death are crucial to inform priorities for improving child survival by and beyond 2015. We report child mortality by cause estimates in 2000–13, and ...cause-specific mortality scenarios to 2030 and 2035. Methods We estimated the distributions of causes of child mortality separately for neonates and children aged 1–59 months. To generate cause-specific mortality fractions, we included new vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We used vital registration data in countries with adequate registration systems. We applied vital registration-based multicause models for countries with low under-5 mortality but inadequate vital registration, and updated verbal autopsy-based multicause models for high mortality countries. We used updated numbers of child deaths to derive numbers of deaths by causes. We applied two scenarios to derive cause-specific mortality in 2030 and 2035. Findings Of the 6·3 million children who died before age 5 years in 2013, 51·8% (3·257 million) died of infectious causes and 44% (2·761 million) died in the neonatal period. The three leading causes are preterm birth complications (0·965 million 15·4%, uncertainty range (UR) 9·8−24·5; UR 0·615–1·537 million), pneumonia (0·935 million 14·9%, 13·0–16·8; 0·817–1·057 million), and intrapartum-related complications (0·662 million 10·5%, 6·7–16·8; 0·421–1·054 million). Reductions in pneumonia, diarrhoea, and measles collectively were responsible for half of the 3·6 million fewer deaths recorded in 2013 versus 2000. Causes with the slowest progress were congenital, preterm, neonatal sepsis, injury, and other causes. If present trends continue, 4·4 million children younger than 5 years will still die in 2030. Furthermore, sub-Saharan Africa will have 33% of the births and 60% of the deaths in 2030, compared with 25% and 50% in 2013, respectively. Interpretation Our projection results provide concrete examples of how the distribution of child causes of deaths could look in 15–20 years to inform priority setting in the post-2015 era. More evidence is needed about shifts in timing, causes, and places of under-5 deaths to inform child survival agendas by and beyond 2015, to end preventable child deaths in a generation, and to count and account for every newborn and every child. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Background China is increasingly facing the challenge of control of the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. We assessed the epidemiology of Alzheimer's disease and other forms of ...dementia in China between 1990, and 2010, to improve estimates of the burden of disease, analyse time trends, and inform health policy decisions relevant to China's rapidly ageing population. Methods In our systematic review we searched for reports of Alzheimer's disease or dementia in China, published in Chinese and English between 1990 and 2010. We searched China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, and PubMed databases. Two investigators independently assessed case definitions of Alzheimer's disease and dementia: we excluded studies that did not use internationally accepted case definitions. We also excluded reviews and viewpoints, studies with no numerical estimates, and studies not done in mainland China. We used Poisson regression and UN demographic data to estimate the prevalence (in nine age groups), incidence, and standardised mortality ratio of dementia and its subtypes in China in 1990, 2000, and 2010. Findings Our search returned 12 642 reports, of which 89 met the inclusion criteria (75 assessed prevalence, 13 incidence, and nine mortality). In total, the included studies had 340 247 participants, in which 6357 cases of Alzheimer's disease were recorded. 254 367 people were assessed for other forms of dementia, of whom 3543 had vascular dementia, frontotemporal dementia, or Lewy body dementia. In 1990 the prevalence of all forms of dementia was 1·8% (95% CI 0·0–44·4) at 65–69 years, and 42·1% (0·0–88·9) at age 95–99 years. In 2010 prevalence was 2·6% (0·0–28·2) at age 65–69 years and 60·5% (39·7–81·3) at age 95–99 years. The number of people with dementia in China was 3·68 million (95% CI 2·22–5·14) in 1990, 5·62 million (4·42–6·82) in 2000, and 9·19 million (5·92–12·48) in 2010. In the same period, the number of people with Alzheimer's disease was 1·93 million (1·15–2·71) in 1990, 3·71 million (2·84–4·58) people in 2000, and 5·69 million (3·85–7·53) in 2010. The incidence of dementia was 9·87 cases per 1000 person-years, that of Alzheimer's disease was 6·25 cases per 1000 person-years, that of vascular dementia was 2·42 cases per 1000 person-years, and that of other rare forms of dementia was 0·46 cases per 1000 person-years. We retrieved mortality data for 1032 people with dementia and 20 157 healthy controls, who were followed up for 3–7 years. The median standardised mortality ratio was 1·94:1 (IQR 1·74–2·45). Interpretation Our analysis suggests that previous estimates of dementia burden, based on smaller datasets, might have underestimated the burden of dementia in China. The burden of dementia seems to be increasing faster than is generally assumed by the international health community. Rapid and effective government responses are needed to tackle dementia in low-income and middle-income countries. Funding Nossal Institute of Global Health (University of Melbourne, Australia), the National 12th Five-Year Major Projects of China, National Health and Medical Research Council Australia–China Exchange Fellowship, Importation and Development of High-Calibre Talents Project of Beijing Municipal Institutions, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Global burden of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea Walker, Christa L Fischer, PhD; Rudan, Igor, Prof; Liu, Li, PhD ...
The Lancet (British edition),
2013-Apr-20, Volume:
381, Issue:
9875
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Diarrhoea and pneumonia are the leading infectious causes of childhood morbidity and mortality. We comprehensively reviewed the epidemiology of childhood diarrhoea and pneumonia in 2010–11 to inform ...the planning of integrated control programmes for both illnesses. We estimated that, in 2010, there were 1·731 billion episodes of diarrhoea (36 million of which progressed to severe episodes) and 120 million episodes of pneumonia (14 million of which progressed to severe episodes) in children younger than 5 years. We estimated that, in 2011, 700 000 episodes of diarrhoea and 1·3 million of pneumonia led to death. A high proportion of deaths occurs in the first 2 years of life in both diseases—72% for diarrhoea and 81% for pneumonia. The epidemiology of childhood diarrhoea and that of pneumonia overlap, which might be partly because of shared risk factors, such as undernutrition, suboptimum breastfeeding, and zinc deficiency. Rotavirus is the most common cause of vaccine-preventable severe diarrhoea (associated with 28% of cases), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (18·3%) of vaccine-preventable severe pneumonia. Morbidity and mortality from childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea are falling, but action is needed globally and at country level to accelerate the reduction.
Summary Background Information about the distribution of causes of and time trends for child mortality should be periodically updated. We report the latest estimates of causes of child mortality in ...2010 with time trends since 2000. Methods Updated total numbers of deaths in children aged 0–27 days and 1–59 months were applied to the corresponding country-specific distribution of deaths by cause. We did the following to derive the number of deaths in children aged 1–59 months: we used vital registration data for countries with an adequate vital registration system; we applied a multinomial logistic regression model to vital registration data for low-mortality countries without adequate vital registration; we used a similar multinomial logistic regression with verbal autopsy data for high-mortality countries; for India and China, we developed national models. We aggregated country results to generate regional and global estimates. Findings Of 7·6 million deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2010, 64·0% (4·879 million) were attributable to infectious causes and 40·3% (3·072 million) occurred in neonates. Preterm birth complications (14·1%; 1·078 million, uncertainty range UR 0·916–1·325), intrapartum-related complications (9·4%; 0·717 million, 0·610–0·876), and sepsis or meningitis (5·2%; 0·393 million, 0·252–0·552) were the leading causes of neonatal death. In older children, pneumonia (14·1%; 1·071 million, 0·977–1·176), diarrhoea (9·9%; 0·751 million, 0·538–1·031), and malaria (7·4%; 0·564 million, 0·432–0·709) claimed the most lives. Despite tremendous efforts to identify relevant data, the causes of only 2·7% (0·205 million) of deaths in children younger than 5 years were medically certified in 2010. Between 2000 and 2010, the global burden of deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased by 2 million, of which pneumonia, measles, and diarrhoea contributed the most to the overall reduction (0·451 million 0·339–0·547, 0·363 million 0·283–0·419, and 0·359 million 0·215–0·476, respectively). However, only tetanus, measles, AIDS, and malaria (in Africa) decreased at an annual rate sufficient to attain the Millennium Development Goal 4. Interpretation Child survival strategies should direct resources toward the leading causes of child mortality, with attention focusing on infectious and neonatal causes. More rapid decreases from 2010–15 will need accelerated reduction for the most common causes of death, notably pneumonia and preterm birth complications. Continued efforts to gather high-quality data and enhance estimation methods are essential for the improvement of future estimates. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Background Up-to-date information on the causes of child deaths is crucial to guide global efforts to improve child survival. We report new estimates for 2008 of the major causes of death in ...children younger than 5 years. Methods We used multicause proportionate mortality models to estimate deaths in neonates aged 0–27 days and children aged 1–59 months, and selected single-cause disease models and analysis of vital registration data when available to estimate causes of child deaths. New data from China and India permitted national data to be used for these countries instead of predictions based on global statistical models, as was done previously. We estimated proportional causes of death for 193 countries, and by application of these proportions to the country-specific mortality rates in children younger than 5 years and birth rates, the numbers of deaths by cause were calculated for countries, regions, and the world. Findings Of the estimated 8·795 million deaths in children younger than 5 years worldwide in 2008, infectious diseases caused 68% (5·970 million), with the largest percentages due to pneumonia (18%, 1·575 million, uncertainty range UR 1·046 million–1·874 million), diarrhoea (15%, 1·336 million, 0·822 million–2·004 million), and malaria (8%, 0·732 million, 0·601 million–0·851 million). 41% (3·575 million) of deaths occurred in neonates, and the most important single causes were preterm birth complications (12%, 1·033 million, UR 0·717 million–1·216 million), birth asphyxia (9%, 0·814 million, 0·563 million–0·997 million), sepsis (6%, 0·521 million, 0·356 million–0·735 million), and pneumonia (4%, 0·386 million, 0·264 million–0·545 million). 49% (4·294 million) of child deaths occurred in five countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, and China. Interpretation These country-specific estimates of the major causes of child deaths should help to focus national programmes and donor assistance. Achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4, to reduce child mortality by two-thirds, is only possible if the high numbers of deaths are addressed by maternal, newborn, and child health interventions. Funding WHO, UNICEF, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Measurements of health indicators are rarely available for every population and period of interest, and available data may not be comparable. The Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent ...Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) define best reporting practices for studies that calculate health estimates for multiple populations (in time or space) using multiple information sources. Health estimates that fall within the scope of GATHER include all quantitative population-level estimates (including global, regional, national, or subnational estimates) of health indicators, including indicators of health status, incidence and prevalence of diseases, injuries, and disability and functioning; and indicators of health determinants, including health behaviours and health exposures. GATHER comprises a checklist of 18 items that are essential for best reporting practice. A more detailed explanation and elaboration document, describing the interpretation and rationale of each reporting item along with examples of good reporting, is available on the GATHER website.
Global mortality in children younger than 5 years has fallen substantially in the past two decades from more than 12 million in 1990, to 6·9 million in 2011, but progress is inconsistent between ...countries. Pneumonia and diarrhoea are the two leading causes of death in this age group and have overlapping risk factors. Several interventions can effectively address these problems, but are not available to those in need. We systematically reviewed evidence showing the effectiveness of various potential preventive and therapeutic interventions against childhood diarrhoea and pneumonia, and relevant delivery strategies. We used the Lives Saved Tool model to assess the effect on mortality when these interventions are applied. We estimate that if implemented at present annual rates of increase in each of the 75 Countdown countries, these interventions and packages of care could save 54% of diarrhoea and 51% of pneumonia deaths by 2025 at a cost of US$3·8 billion. However, if coverage of these key evidence-based interventions were scaled up to at least 80%, and that for immunisations to at least 90%, 95% of diarrhoea and 67% of pneumonia deaths in children younger than 5 years could be eliminated by 2025 at a cost of $6·715 billion. New delivery platforms could promote equitable access and community platforms are important catalysts in this respect. Furthermore, several of these interventions could reduce morbidity and overall burden of disease, with possible benefits for developmental outcomes.
Summary Few data sources are available to assess the global and regional risk of sequelae from bacterial meningitis. We aimed to estimate the risks of major and minor sequelae caused by bacterial ...meningitis, estimate the distribution of the different types of sequelae, and compare risk by region and income. We systematically reviewed published papers from 1980 to 2008. Standard global burden of disease categories (cognitive deficit, bilateral hearing loss, motor deficit, seizures, visual impairment, hydrocephalus) were labelled as major sequelae. Less severe, minor sequelae (behavioural problems, learning difficulties, unilateral hearing loss, hypotonia, diplopia), and multiple impairments were also included. 132 papers were selected for inclusion. The median (IQR) risk of at least one major or minor sequela after hospital discharge was 19·9% (12·3–35·3%). The risk of at least one major sequela was 12·8% (7·2–21·1%) and of at least one minor sequela was 8·6% (4·4–15·3%). The median (IQR) risk of at least one major sequela was 24·7% (16·2–35·3%) in pneumococcal meningitis; 9·5% (7·1–15·3%) in Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), and 7·2% (4·3–11·2%) in meningococcal meningitis. The most common major sequela was hearing loss (33·9%), and 19·7% had multiple impairments. In the random-effects meta-analysis, all-cause risk of a major sequela was twice as high in the African (pooled risk estimate 25·1% 95% CI 18·9–32·0%) and southeast Asian regions (21·6% 95% CI 13·1–31·5%) as in the European region (9·4% 95% CI 7·0–12·3%; overall I2 =89·5%, p<0·0001). Risks of long-term disabling sequelae were highest in low-income countries, where the burden of bacterial meningitis is greatest. Most reported sequelae could have been averted by vaccination with Hib, pneumococcal, and meningococcal vaccines.
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