Agriculture in 2050 HUNTER, MITCHELL C.; SMITH, RICHARD G.; SCHIPANSKI, MEAGAN E. ...
Bioscience,
04/2017, Volume:
67, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying ...commensurate environmental goals. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. We propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals.
Cover crops provide a variety of important agroecological services within cropping systems. Typically these crops are grown as monocultures or simple graminoid-legume bicultures; however, ecological ...theory and empirical evidence suggest that agroecosystem services could be enhanced by growing cover crops in species-rich mixtures. We examined cover crop productivity, weed suppression, stability, and carryover effects to a subsequent cash crop in an experiment involving a five-species annual cover crop mixture and the component species grown as monocultures in SE New Hampshire, USA in 2011 and 2012. The mean land equivalent ratio (LER) for the mixture exceeded 1.0 in both years, indicating that the mixture over-yielded relative to the monocultures. Despite the apparent over-yielding in the mixture, we observed no enhancement in weed suppression, biomass stability, or productivity of a subsequent oat (Avena sativa L.) cash crop when compared to the best monoculture component crop. These data are some of the first to include application of the LER to an analysis of a cover crop mixture and contribute to the growing literature on the agroecological effects of cover crop diversity in cropping systems.
Rare genetic variants in the core endocannabinoid system genes CNR1, CNR2, DAGLA, MGLL and FAAH were identified in molecular testing data from 6,032 patients with a broad spectrum of neurological ...disorders. The variants were evaluated for association with phenotypes similar to those observed in the orthologous gene knockouts in mice. Heterozygous rare coding variants in CNR1, which encodes the type 1 cannabinoid receptor (CB1), were found to be significantly associated with pain sensitivity (especially migraine), sleep and memory disorders-alone or in combination with anxiety-compared to a set of controls without such CNR1 variants. Similarly, heterozygous rare variants in DAGLA, which encodes diacylglycerol lipase alpha, were found to be significantly associated with seizures and neurodevelopmental disorders, including autism and abnormalities of brain morphology, compared to controls. Rare variants in MGLL, FAAH and CNR2 were not associated with any neurological phenotypes in the patients tested. Diacylglycerol lipase alpha synthesizes the endocannabinoid 2-AG in the brain, which interacts with CB1 receptors. The phenotypes associated with rare CNR1 variants are reminiscent of those implicated in the theory of clinical endocannabinoid deficiency syndrome. The severe phenotypes associated with rare DAGLA variants underscore the critical role of rapid 2-AG synthesis and the endocannabinoid system in regulating neurological function and development. Mapping of the variants to the 3D structure of the type 1 cannabinoid receptor, or primary structure of diacylglycerol lipase alpha, reveals clustering of variants in certain structural regions and is consistent with impacts to function.
Aim The tomato family Solanaceae is distributed on all major continents except Antarctica and has its centre of diversity in South America. Its worldwide distribution suggests multiple long-distance ...dispersals within and between the New and Old Worlds. Here, we apply maximum likelihood (ML) methods and newly developed biogeographical stochastic mapping (BSM) to infer the ancestral range of the family and to estimate the frequency of dispersal and vicariance events resulting in its present-day distribution. Location Worldwide. Methods Building on a recently inferred megaphylogeny of Solanaceae, we conducted ML model fitting of a range of biogeographical models with the program 'BioGeoBEARS'. We used the parameters from the best fitting model to estimate ancestral range probabilities and conduct stochastic mapping, from which we estimated the number and type of biogeographical events. Results Our best model supported South America as the ancestral area for the Solanaceae and its major clades. The BSM analyses showed that dispersal events, particularly range expansions, are the principal mode by which members of the family have spread beyond South America. Main conclusions For Solanaceae, South America is not only the family's current centre of diversity but also its ancestral range, and dispersal was the principal driver of range evolution. The most common dispersal patterns involved range expansions from South America into North and Central America, while dispersal in the reverse direction was less common. This directionality may be due to the early build-up of species richness in South America, resulting in large pool of potential migrants. These results demonstrate the utility of BSM not only for estimating ancestral ranges but also in inferring the frequency, direction and timing of biogeographical events in a statistically rigorous framework.
Why skyscrapers after Covid-19? Smith, Richard G.
Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies,
12/2021, Volume:
134
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
•Global cities and their skyscrapers will be more important after Covid-19 despite an increase in remote working.•Skyscrapers outside of global cities, in both the Global North and South, will be ...less important after Covid-19.•Skyscraper demand in global cities will strengthen to facilitate in-person interactions in specialised high-value fields.•Global cities will drive GDP more than before, attracting wealth and demand for luxury residential skyscrapers.•The location and usage of any skyscraper matters more than its height or reasons for construction.
Globalization’s need for global cities with highly concentrated financial districts is discussed to explain how the Covid-19 pandemic will paradoxically only serve to make the world’s leading global cities more essential, valuable, and demanding of skyscrapers than ever before. Financial and corporate service firms cannot only be digitally based because they also require face-to-face interaction, collaboration, and joint-production within themselves, and between one another, in the most connected global cities to effectively function as competitive businesses. However, after Covid-19 advanced service firms will only not practice remote working where and when they must; so that in-place face-to-face interactions with colleagues and clients will be overwhelmingly only concentrated in the skyscraper-laden financial districts of the world’s leading global cities. The future of commercial and luxury residential skyscrapers in the world’s leading global cities can be said to be secure because the impact of Covid-19 on enhancing the centrality of these few highly connected and super-wealthy cities in globalization is both understandable and predictable; skyscrapers elsewhere in the Global North or South will struggle to remain viable as firms increasingly decentralise the work of their staff away from city centre offices.
Predicting and mitigating changes in soil carbon (C) stocks under global change requires a coherent understanding of the factors regulating soil organic matter (SOM) formation and persistence, ...including knowledge of the direct sources of SOM (plants vs. microbes). In recent years, conceptual models of SOM formation have emphasized the primacy of microbial‐derived organic matter inputs, proposing that microbial physiological traits (e.g., growth efficiency) are dominant controls on SOM quantity. However, recent quantitative studies have challenged this view, suggesting that plants make larger direct contributions to SOM than is currently recognized by this paradigm. In this review, we attempt to reconcile these perspectives by highlighting that variation across estimates of plant‐ versus microbial‐derived SOM may arise in part from methodological limitations. We show that all major methods used to estimate plant versus microbial contributions to SOM have substantial shortcomings, highlighting the uncertainty in our current quantitative estimates. We demonstrate that there is significant overlap in the chemical signatures of compounds produced by microbes, plant roots, and through the extracellular decomposition of plant litter, which introduces uncertainty into the use of common biomarkers for parsing plant‐ and microbial‐derived SOM, especially in the mineral‐associated organic matter (MAOM) fraction. Although the studies that we review have contributed to a deeper understanding of microbial contributions to SOM, limitations with current methods constrain quantitative estimates. In light of recent advances, we suggest that now is a critical time to re‐evaluate long‐standing methods, clearly define their limitations, and develop a strategic plan for improving the quantification of plant‐ and microbial‐derived SOM. From our synthesis, we outline key questions and challenges for future research on the mechanisms of SOM formation and stabilization from plant and microbial pathways.
Soil organic matter (SOM) comprises ~80% of global terrestrial carbon stocks, much of which is stored as mineral‐associated organic matter (MAOM). MAOM is derived from both plant and microbial biomolecules, but the quantitative contributions of each remain uncertain (represented by the mixing of red and blue into purple). There is substantial overlap in the compounds produced by microbes, plant roots and those released through the extracellular decomposition of plant litter, and limitations in our current methods constrain quantification. We review the methods used to quantify plant‐ and microbial‐derived SOM, examining their limitations and key future research priorities towards elucidating the plant and microbial pathways of SOM formation.
Minimally invasive spine surgery (MISS) techniques were developed to address morbidities associated with open spinal surgery approaches. MISS was initially applied for indications such as the ...microendoscopic decompression of stenosis (MEDS)-an operation that has become widely implemented in modern spine surgery practice. Minimally invasive surgery for MEDS is an excellent example of how an MISS technique has improved outcomes compared with the use of traditional open surgical procedures. In parallel with reports of surgeon experience, accumulating clinical evidence suggests that MISS is favoured over open surgery, and one could argue that the role of MISS techniques will continue to expand. As the field of minimally invasive surgery has developed, MISS has been implemented for the treatment of increasingly difficult and complex pathologies, including trauma, spinal malignancies and spinal deformity in adults. In this Review, we present the accumulating evidence in support of minimally invasive techniques for established MISS indications, such as lumbar stenosis, and discuss the need for additional level I and level II data to demonstrate the benefit of MISS over traditional open surgery. The expanding utility of MISS techniques to address an increasingly broad range of spinal pathologies is also highlighted.
A Tipping Point for Measurement-Based Care Fortney, John C; Unützer, Jürgen; Wrenn, Glenda ...
Psychiatric services (Washington, D.C.),
02/2017, Volume:
68, Issue:
2
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Measurement-based care involves the systematic administration of symptom rating scales and use of the results to drive clinical decision making at the level of the individual patient. This literature ...review examined the theoretical and empirical support for measurement-based care.
Articles were identified through search strategies in PubMed and Google Scholar. Additional citations in the references of retrieved articles were identified, and experts assembled for a focus group conducted by the Kennedy Forum were consulted.
Fifty-one relevant articles were reviewed. There are numerous brief structured symptom rating scales that have strong psychometric properties. Virtually all randomized controlled trials with frequent and timely feedback of patient-reported symptoms to the provider during the medication management and psychotherapy encounters significantly improved outcomes. Ineffective approaches included one-time screening, assessing symptoms infrequently, and feeding back outcomes to providers outside the context of the clinical encounter. In addition to the empirical evidence about efficacy, there is mounting evidence from large-scale pragmatic trials and clinical demonstration projects that measurement-based care is feasible to implement on a large scale and is highly acceptable to patients and providers.
In addition to the primary gains of measurement-based care for individual patients, there are also potential secondary and tertiary gains to be made when individual patient data are aggregated. Specifically, aggregated symptom rating scale data can be used for professional development at the provider level and for quality improvement at the clinic level and to inform payers about the value of mental health services delivered at the health care system level.
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