Seismic hazard map of the Middle East Giardini, Domenico; Danciu, Laurentiu; Erdik, Mustafa ...
Bulletin of earthquake engineering,
08/2018, Volume:
16, Issue:
8
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
The collaborative project Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME, 2010–2015) brought together scientists and engineers from the leading research institutions in the region and delivered ...state-of-the-art seismic hazard assessment covering Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey. Their efforts have been materialized in the first homogenized seismic hazard model comprising earthquake catalogues, mapped active faults, strong motions databank, ground motion models and the estimated ground motion values for various intensity measure types and relevant return periods (e.g. 475–5000 years). The reference seismic hazard map of the Middle East, depicts the mean values of peak ground acceleration with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a mean return period of 475 years. A full resolution poster is provided with this contribution.
The aim of using simulation techniques to provide generated ground motion data is to extend our knowledge on the effect of earthquakes and understanding their physical properties. High-frequency ...accelerations have incoherent behavior because of unpredictable irregularities and heterogeneities associated with faulting and wave propagation. Simulations of ground motions frequencies beyond > 1 Hz can be represented with stochastic methods using simplified model representations of source, path and site effects. In this paper, stochastic simulations are performed for the recordings of the 26 September 2019 Silivri, Istanbul earthquake, using a finite fault simulation approach with a dynamic corner frequency. The main target is to create a valid synthetic model database with consistent source, path, and site parameters in the region that can be implemented in future simulation efforts. In calibration, we have used the recordings at 59 widely distributed stations in Istanbul located on different site conditions with epicentral distances ranging from 23 to 101 km. Four different frequency-dependent Q models were tested to obtain the best fit with the observations. By comparing generated ground motions to the observed ones, optimum source parameters and crustal characteristics were estimated. The calibrated model parameters have been obtained from the set of best-fit data with observed ground motion in frequency domain. Synthetic PGAs have been compared with the NGA-West2 Ground Motion Models (GMMs). Furthermore, spatial distributions of the ground motion intensity parameters were obtained and compared with available damage observations in Istanbul due to this earthquake. In conclusion, the results of the simulation were in good agreement with the recorded ones, both in time and frequency domains. The results indicate that the proposed stochastic model can be used to simulate ground motion distributions in Istanbul and beyond from past and future events in the region.
The paper presents the probabilistic and scenario based earthquake loss estimations for the case that the hazard and building inventory inputs are kept the same whereas the damage functions as well ...as the seismic demand estimation method are changed in an earthquake loss model. Spectral acceleration-displacement based damage assessments by alternating damage functions and inelastic demand evaluation methods are performed for high-code buildings in Istanbul. The buildings are mid- and high-rise, reinforced concrete, moment-resisting frames that are assumed to be designed in accordance with the provisions of Turkish Earthquake Resistant Design Code (1998). Three damage models, i.e. structural capacity and fragility curves, are employed for each building class: Expert judgment based capacity and fragility functions; HAZUS's high-code seismic design level capacity and fragility functions; and Capacity and fragility functions derived based on nonlinear analyses of code complying RC frames. Inelastic spectral displacement demands are computed with three methods: Capacity Spectrum Method, Modified Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum Method, and Displacement Coefficient Method. Analyses are realized under site-specific ground motions based on a state-of-the-art hazard model for eight return periods ranging from 100 to 2475 years as well as for an Mw = 7.5 scenario earthquake. Probabilistic loss curves for each case are developed. Estimated average annual losses (AAL) and loss ratios (AALR) are compared. Grid and district based maps illustrating the spatial distributions of estimated long term average losses per year and the loss ratios are presented. The estimated annualized loss ratios at district level in the city are compared to the earthquake insurance premium rates.
•Sensitivity of earthquake loss models to uncertainty in the treatment of the vulnerability component is studied.•The same building inventory under the same ground motion inputs is analyzed by making use of three different damage models and three inelastic displacement demand evaluation methods.•Loss estimates produced by different combinations of these vulnerability modeling elements can vary by a factor of x4.•Annualized loss ratio estimations are compared to earthquake insurance premium rates.
An earthquake of Mw7.2 on 23 October 2011 occurred in the Van region of Eastern Turkey. The main shock and long series aftershocks caused significant damage and claimed 644 lives. The particular ...features and the lessons learned are covered.
Over the years, several local and regional seismic hazard studies have been conducted for the estimation of the seismic hazard in Turkey using different statistical processing tools for instrumental ...and historical earthquake data and modeling the geologic and tectonic characteristics of the region. Recently developed techniques, increased knowledge and improved databases brought the necessity to review the national active fault database and the compiled earthquake catalogue for the development of a national earthquake hazard map. A national earthquake strategy and action plan were conceived and accordingly with the collaboration of the several institutions and expert researchers, the Revision of Turkish Seismic Hazard Map Project (UDAP-Ç-13-06) was initiated, and finalized at the end of 2014. The scope of the project was confined to the revision of current national seismic hazard map, using the state of the art technologies and knowledge of the active fault, earthquake database, and ground motion prediction equations. The following two seismic source zonation models are developed for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis: (1) Area source model, (2) Fault and spatial smoothing seismic source model (FSBCK). In this study, we focus on the development and the characterization of the Fault Source model, the background spatially smoothed seismicity model and intrinsic uncertainty on the earthquake occurrence-rates-estimation. Finally, PSHA results obtained from the fault and spatial smoothed seismic source model are presented for 43, 72, 475 and 2475 years return periods (corresponding to 69, 50, 10, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) for PGA and 5% damped spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s.
The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) project was carried out between 2010 and 2014 to provide a harmonized seismic hazard assessment without country border limitations. The result covers eleven ...countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey, which span one of the seismically most active regions on Earth in response to complex interactions between four major tectonic plates i.e. Africa, Arabia, India and Eurasia. Destructive earthquakes with great loss of life and property are frequent within this region, as exemplified by the recent events of Izmit (Turkey, 1999), Bam (Iran, 2003), Kashmir (Pakistan, 2005), Van (Turkey, 2011), and Hindu Kush (Afghanistan, 2015). We summarize multidisciplinary data (seismicity, geology, and tectonics) compiled and used to characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes over the investigated region. We describe the development process of the model including the delineation of seismogenic sources and the description of methods and parameters of earthquake recurrence models, all representing the current state of knowledge and practice in seismic hazard assessment. The resulting seismogenic source model includes seismic sources defined by geological evidence and active tectonic findings correlated with measured seismicity patterns. A total of 234 area sources fully cross-border-harmonized are combined with 778 seismically active faults along with background-smoothed seismicity. Recorded seismicity (both historical and instrumental) provides the input to estimate rates of earthquakes for area sources and background seismicity while geologic slip-rates are used to characterize fault-specific earthquake recurrences. Ultimately, alternative models of intrinsic uncertainties of data, procedures and models are considered when used for calculation of the seismic hazard. At variance to previous models of the EMME region, we provide a homogeneous seismic source model representing a consistent basis for the next generation of seismic hazard models within the region.
The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to ...the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (
www.efehr.org
).
The increase in the wealth of information on the seismotectonic structure of the Marmara region after two devastating earthquakes (M7.6 Izmit and M7.2 Duzce events) in the year 1999 opened the way ...for the reassessment of the probabilistic seismic hazard in the light of new datasets. In this connection, the most recent findings and outputs of different national and international projects concerning seismicity and fault characterization in terms of geometric and kinematic properties are exploited in the present study to build an updated seismic hazard model. A revised fault segmentation model, alternative earthquake rupture models under a Poisson and renewal assumptions, as well as recently derived global and regional ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are put together in the present model to assess the seismic hazard in the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is conducted based on characteristic earthquake modelling for the fault segments capable of producing large earthquakes and smoothed seismicity modelling for the background smaller magnitude earthquake activity. The time-independent and time-dependent seismic hazard results in terms of spatial distributions of three ground-shaking intensity measures (peak ground acceleration, PGA, and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) on rock having 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years) as well as the corresponding hazard curves for selected cities are shown and compared with previous studies.
The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, ...2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (
www.efehr.org
).
This article summarizes a recent study in the framework of the Global Earth model (GEM) and the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) project to establish the new catalog of seismicity for the ...Middle East, using all historical (pre-1900), early and modern instrumental events up to 2006. According to different seismicity, which depends on geophysical, geological, tectonic, and seismicity data, this region is subdivided to nine subregions, consisting of Alborz–Azerbaijan, Afghanistan–Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Caucasus, Central Iran, Kopeh–Dagh, Makran, Zagros, and Turkey (Eastern Anatolia; after 30° E). After omitting the duplicate events, aftershocks, and foreshocks by using the Gruenthal method, and uniform all magnitude to
Mw
scale, 28,244 main events remain for the new catalog of Middle East from 1250 B.C. through 2006. The magnitude of completeness (
Mc
) was determined as 4.9 for five out of nine subregions, where the least values of
Mc
were found to be 4.2. The threshold of Mc is around 5.5, 5.0, 4.5, and 4.0, for the time after 1950, 1963, 1975, and 2000, respectively. The average of teleseismic depths in all regions is less than 15 km. Totally, majority of depth for Kopeh–Dagh and Central Iran, Zagros, and Alborz–Azerbaijan, approximately, is 15, 13, and 11 km and for Afghanistan–Pakistan, Caucasus, Makran, Turkey (after 30° E), and Saudi Arabia is about 9 km.
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