Background:
The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested.
Objective:
The aim of this study was to determine the ...demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.
Methods:
Patients with adult-onset relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed.
Results:
A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion.
Conclusion:
Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression.
Background:
Cerebellar and brainstem symptoms are common in early stages of multiple sclerosis (MS) yet their prognostic values remain unclear.
Objective:
The aim of this study was to investigate ...long-term disability outcomes in patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms.
Methods:
This study used data from MSBase registry. Patients with early cerebellar/brainstem presentations were identified as those with cerebellar/brainstem relapse(s) or functional system score ⩾ 2 in the initial 2 years. Early pyramidal presentation was chosen as a comparator. Andersen-Gill models were used to compare cumulative hazards of (1) disability progression events and (2) relapses between patients with and without early cerebellar/brainstem symptoms. Mixed effect models were used to estimate the associations between early cerebellar/brainstem presentations and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores.
Results:
The study cohort consisted of 10,513 eligible patients, including 2723 and 3915 patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms, respectively. Early cerebellar presentation was associated with greater hazard of progression events (HR = 1.37, p < 0.001) and EDSS (β = 0.16, p < 0.001). Patients with early brainstem symptoms had lower hazard of progression events (HR = 0.89, p = 0.01) and EDSS (β = −0.06, p < 0.001). Neither presentation was associated with changes in relapse risk.
Conclusion:
Early cerebellar presentation is associated with unfavourable outcomes, while early brainstem presentation is associated with favourable prognosis. These presentations may be used as MS prognostic markers and guide therapeutic approach.
Background:
A delayed onset of treatment effect, termed therapeutic lag, may influence the assessment of treatment response in some patient subgroups.
Objectives:
The objective of this study is to ...explore the associations of patient and disease characteristics with therapeutic lag on relapses and disability accumulation.
Methods:
Data from MSBase, a multinational multiple sclerosis (MS) registry, and OFSEP, the French MS registry, were used. Patients diagnosed with MS, minimum 1 year of exposure to MS treatment and 3 years of pre-treatment follow-up, were included in the analysis. Studied outcomes were incidence of relapses and disability accumulation. Therapeutic lag was calculated using an objective, validated method in subgroups stratified by patient and disease characteristics. Therapeutic lag under specific circumstances was then estimated in subgroups defined by combinations of clinical and demographic determinants.
Results:
High baseline disability scores, annualised relapse rate (ARR) ⩾ 1 and male sex were associated with longer therapeutic lag on disability progression in sufficiently populated groups: females with expanded disability status scale (EDSS) < 6 and ARR < 1 had mean lag of 26.6 weeks (95% CI = 18.2–34.9), males with EDSS < 6 and ARR < 1 31.0 weeks (95% CI = 25.3–36.8), females with EDSS < 6 and ARR ⩾ 1 44.8 weeks (95% CI = 24.5–65.1), and females with EDSS ⩾ 6 and ARR < 1 54.3 weeks (95% CI = 47.2–61.5).
Conclusions:
Pre-treatment EDSS and ARR are the most important determinants of therapeutic lag.
Background Data from African countries regarding diagnosis, prognosis, management, and outcome of patients with cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) are limited. The aim of the present study is to ...characterize clinical presentation, predisposing factors, neuroimaging findings, and outcomes of the disease in the Tunisian population. Methods This is a prospective study including patients referred to the Neurology Department of the Military Hospital of Tunis between January 2009 and December 2012. The diagnosis of CVT was confirmed in all patients using magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance venography. The demographic, clinical, radiological, and outcome data were recorded and analyzed. Median follow-up was 16 months (range 6 months to 4 years). Primary outcome was death or dependency as assessed by modified Rankin score more than 2 at the end of follow-up. Results This study included 41 patients with CVT. Mean age was 41.24 years, predominantly women (68%). The mode of onset was acute in 10 patients (24%), subacute in 26 (64%), and chronic in 5 (12%). The most common presenting features were headache, observed in 83% of the patients, followed by seizures, focal motor deficits, papilledema, and mental status changes. Lateral (56%) and superior longitudinal (51%) sinuses were the most commonly involved. Multiple sinuses were involved in 46% of cases. Nineteen patients (46%) had a d -dimer level more than 500 ng/mL. Major causes of CVT were thrombophilia (56%), either genetic or acquired, obstetric and gynecological (50%), and septic (34%). Outcome was favorable in 83% of patients. At the end of follow-up, 32 patients (78%) had complete recovery (modified Rankin Scale mRs score 0-1), 2 (5%) had partial recovery (mRs score 2), and 4 (10%) were dependent (mRs score 3-5). One patient (2.5%) had a recurrent sinus thrombosis. Conclusions Our Tunisian population presented distinct risk factors profile with high frequency of thrombophilia, infections, and postpartum state. Oral contraceptive use is not a major risk factor in our population. The overall prognosis was good.
Background. The prevalence of psychiatric disturbance for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) is higher than that observed in other chronic health conditions. We report three cases of MS and ...bipolar disorder and we discuss the possible etiological hypothesis and treatment options. Observations. All patients fulfilled the McDonald criteria for MS. Two patients were followed up in psychiatry for manic or depressive symptoms before developing MS. A third patient was diagnosed with MS and developed deferred psychotic symptoms. Some clinical and radiological features are highlighted in our patients: one manic episode induced by high dose corticosteroids and one case of a new orbitofrontal MRI lesion concomitant with the emergence of psychiatric symptoms. All patients needed antipsychotic treatment with almost good tolerance for high dose corticosteroids and interferon beta treatment. Conclusions. MRI lesions suggest the possible implication of local MS-related brain damage in development of pure “psychiatric fits” in MS. Genetic susceptibility is another hypothesis for this association. We have noticed that interferon beta treatments were well tolerated while high dose corticosteroids may induce manic fits.
Patients with the 'aggressive' form of multiple sclerosis accrue disability at an accelerated rate, typically reaching Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) ≥ 6 within 10 years of symptom onset. ...Several clinicodemographic factors have been associated with aggressive multiple sclerosis, but less research has focused on clinical markers that are present in the first year of disease. The development of early predictive models of aggressive multiple sclerosis is essential to optimize treatment in this multiple sclerosis subtype. We evaluated whether patients who will develop aggressive multiple sclerosis can be identified based on early clinical markers. We then replicated this analysis in an independent cohort. Patient data were obtained from the MSBase observational study. Inclusion criteria were (i) first recorded disability score (EDSS) within 12 months of symptom onset; (ii) at least two recorded EDSS scores; and (iii) at least 10 years of observation time, based on time of last recorded EDSS score. Patients were classified as having 'aggressive multiple sclerosis' if all of the following criteria were met: (i) EDSS ≥ 6 reached within 10 years of symptom onset; (ii) EDSS ≥ 6 confirmed and sustained over ≥6 months; and (iii) EDSS ≥ 6 sustained until the end of follow-up. Clinical predictors included patient variables (sex, age at onset, baseline EDSS, disease duration at first visit) and recorded relapses in the first 12 months since disease onset (count, pyramidal signs, bowel-bladder symptoms, cerebellar signs, incomplete relapse recovery, steroid administration, hospitalization). Predictors were evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Independent validation was performed using data from the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Of the 2403 patients identified, 145 were classified as having aggressive multiple sclerosis (6%). Bayesian model averaging identified three statistical predictors: age > 35 at symptom onset, EDSS ≥ 3 in the first year, and the presence of pyramidal signs in the first year. This model significantly predicted aggressive multiple sclerosis area under the curve (AUC) = 0.80, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.75, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.98. The presence of all three signs was strongly predictive, with 32% of such patients meeting aggressive disease criteria. The absence of all three signs was associated with a 1.4% risk. Of the 556 eligible patients in the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry cohort, 34 (6%) met criteria for aggressive multiple sclerosis. The combination of all three signs was also predictive in this cohort (AUC = 0.75, 95% CIs: 0.66, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.97). Taken together, these findings suggest that older age at symptom onset, greater disability during the first year, and pyramidal signs in the first year are early indicators of aggressive multiple sclerosis.
Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory and neurodegenerative demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS), most likely autoimmune in origin, usually beginning in early adulthood. The ...aetiology of the disease is not well understood; it is viewed currently as a multifactorial disease which results from complex interactions between genetic predisposition and environmental factors, of which a few are potentially modifiable. Improving our understanding of these factors can lead to new and more effective approaches to patient counselling and, possibly, prevention and management of the disease. The 2016 focused workshop of the European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis (ECTRIMS) addressed the topic of environmental, modifiable risk factors for MS, gathering experts from around the world, to collate experimental and clinical research into environmental factors that have been associated with the disease onset and, in a few cases, disease activity and progression. A number of factors, including infections, vitamin D deficiency, diet and lifestyle factors, stress and comorbidities, were discussed. The meeting provided a forum to analyse available evidence, to identify inconsistencies and gaps in current knowledge and to suggest avenues for future research.
To compare multiple sclerosis (MS) disability progression among North Africans (NAs) living in France (NAF) and in Tunisia (NAT) and Caucasian patients born and living in France (CF).
Patients with ...MS admitted to the day hospital in the Neurology Department at Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital (France) and Razi Hospital (Tunisia) were questioned on their place of birth and the place of birth of their parents. To compare delay to outcomes, log-rank tests were used. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to determine factors influencing time to Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 6.
We consecutively included 462 patients: 171 CF, 151 NAT, and 140 NAF. Sex ratio, disease forms, and delay from disease onset to diagnosis were similar between the groups. NAF differed from other groups, with a shorter median time to reach EDSS 3, 4, and 6, and a more frequent incomplete recovery after first relapse (
< 0.0001). Furthermore, the NA second-generation group showed the youngest median age at onset (26.5 ± 8.8 years,
= 0.001), the shortest median time to EDSS 6 in relapsing-remitting patients, and an increased mean number of relapses during the first 5 years of the disease (6.1 ± 3.7,
= 0.01) compared to CF. The Cox proportional hazard models demonstrate that (1) NA ethnicity is a significant predictor of fast progression even when adjusting for major covariates and (2) treatment did not influence the models.
Our study further supports severity of MS in NAs and unravels the particular severity in NAs living in France, mainly for the second generation.
In multiple sclerosis, treatment start or switch is prompted by evidence of disease activity. Whilst immunomodulatory therapies reduce disease activity, the time required to attain maximal effect is ...unclear. In this study we aimed to develop a method that allows identification of the time to manifest fully and clinically the effect of multiple sclerosis treatments ('therapeutic lag') on clinical disease activity represented by relapses and progression-of-disability events. Data from two multiple sclerosis registries, MSBase (multinational) and OFSEP (French), were used. Patients diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, minimum 1-year exposure to treatment, minimum 3-year pretreatment follow-up and yearly review were included in the analysis. For analysis of disability progression, all events in the subsequent 5-year period were included. Density curves, representing incidence of relapses and 6-month confirmed progression events, were separately constructed for each sufficiently represented therapy. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to identify the first local minimum of the first derivative after treatment start; this point represented the point of stabilization of treatment effect, after the maximum treatment effect was observed. The method was developed in a discovery cohort (MSBase), and externally validated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort (OFSEP). A merged MSBase-OFSEP cohort was used for all subsequent analyses. Annualized relapse rates were compared in the time before treatment start and after the stabilization of treatment effect following commencement of each therapy. We identified 11 180 eligible treatment epochs for analysis of relapses and 4088 treatment epochs for disability progression. External validation was performed in four therapies, with no significant difference in the bootstrapped mean differences in therapeutic lag duration between registries. The duration of therapeutic lag for relapses was calculated for 10 therapies and ranged between 12 and 30 weeks. The duration of therapeutic lag for disability progression was calculated for seven therapies and ranged between 30 and 70 weeks. Significant differences in the pre- versus post-treatment annualized relapse rate were present for all therapies apart from intramuscular interferon beta-1a. In conclusion we have developed, and externally validated, a method to objectively quantify the duration of therapeutic lag on relapses and disability progression in different therapies in patients more than 3 years from multiple sclerosis onset. Objectively defined periods of expected therapeutic lag allows insights into the evaluation of treatment response in randomized clinical trials and may guide clinical decision-making in patients who experience early on-treatment disease activity. This method will subsequently be applied in studies that evaluate the effect of patient and disease characteristics on therapeutic lag.
Abstract
Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other ...lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability.
We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties.
We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients was 39 (95% confidence interval: 37 to 43) years. Higher latitude median hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% credible interval (1.16, 1.26), higher national multiple sclerosis prevalence 1.07 (1.03, 1.11), male sex 1.30 (1.22, 1.39), older age at onset 1.35 (1.30, 1.39), higher disability 2.40 (2.34, 2.47) and frequent relapses 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) at inclusion were associated with increased hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Higher proportion of time on high-to-moderate efficacy therapy substantially reduced the hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis 0.76 (0.73, 0.79) and reduced the effect of latitude interaction: 0.95 (0.92, 0.99). At the country-level, patients in Oman, Tunisia, Iran and Canada had higher risks of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis relative to the other studied regions.
Higher latitude of residence is associated with a higher probability of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. High-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy can mitigate some of this geographically co-determined risk.
By analysing longitudinal data from 27 countries, Sharmin et al. reveal a geographically varying risk of conversion to secondary progressive disease in patients with multiple sclerosis. Higher latitude of residence increases the risk while high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapies reduce the risk substantially.
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