To evaluate variability and predictability of disability trajectories in moderately advanced and advanced multiple sclerosis (MS), and their modifiability with immunomodulatory therapy.
The epochs ...between Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) steps 3-6, 4-6 and 6-6.5 were analysed. Patients with relapse-onset MS and having reached 6-month confirmed baseline EDSS step (3/4/6) were identified in MSBase, a global observational MS cohort study. We used multivariable survival models to examine the impact of disease-modifying therapy, clinical and demographic factors on progression to the outcome EDSS step (6/6.5). Sensitivity analyses with varying outcome definitions and inclusion criteria were conducted.
For the EDSS 3-6, 4-6 and 6-6.5 epochs, 1560, 1504 and 1231 patients were identified, respectively. Disability trajectories showed large coefficients of variance prebaseline (0.92-1.11) and postbaseline (2.15-2.50), with no significant correlations. The probability of reaching the outcome step was not associated with prebaseline variables, but was increased by higher relapse rates during each epoch (HRs 1.58-3.07; p<0.001). A greater proportion of each epoch treated with higher efficacy therapies was associated with lower risk of reaching the outcome disability step (HRs 0.72-0.91 per 25%; p≤0.02). 3 sensitivity analyses confirmed these results.
Disease progression during moderately advanced and advanced MS is highly variable and amnesic to prior disease activity. Lower relapse rates and greater time on higher efficacy immunomodulatory therapy after reaching EDSS steps 3, 4 and 6 are associated with a decreased risk of accumulating further disability. Highly effective immunomodulatory therapy ameliorates accumulation of disability in moderately advanced and advanced relapse-onset MS.
Background
According to the last Italian report by the Ministry of Health in 2018, the estimated number of acute ischemic strokes (AIS) in Campania is 10,000/year, with an expected number of 1390 ...intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and 694 mechanical thrombectomies (MT). In 2017, only 1.5% of expected patients received IVT and 0.2% MT. This study analyzed the trend of IVT and MT in 2019–2020 and depicted the state of art of Stroke Care in Campania.
Methods
From the regional health task force, we obtained the hospital discharge forms from all private and public hospitals in Campania; we selected patients with a principal diagnosis of AIS and measured the rate of patients admitted to neurology units and the rate of IVT, MT, and IVT + MT for both 2019 and 2020.
Results
In 2019, we observed 4817 admissions for AIS; 2858/4817 (59.3%) patients were admitted to neurology units. Out of 4817 patients, 192 received IVT, 165 MT, and 131 IVT + MT (488 treated patients; 10.1%). In 2020, we observed 4129 admissions for AIS; 2502/4129 (62.7%) patients were admitted to neurology units. Out of 4129 patients, 198 received IVT, 250 MT, and 180 IVT + MT (628 treated patients; 15.2%). These results showed that despite a reduction of AIS admissions in 2020, the relative and absolute rate of recanalization treatments increased. However, the number of patients who were not admitted to neurology units nor received acute treatments remained dramatically high.
Conclusion
Despite the development of acute treatments, the Campania Stroke Network still needs significative efforts to improve.
We investigated the occurrence and relative contribution of relapse-associated worsening (RAW) and progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) to confirmed disability accrual (CDA) and ...transition to secondary progression (SP) in relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS).
Relapsing-onset MS patients with follow-up > / = 5 years (16,130) were extracted from the Italian MS Registry. CDA was a 6-month confirmed increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. Sustained disability accumulation (SDA) was a CDA with no EDSS improvement in all subsequent visits. Predictors of PIRA and RAW and the association between final EDSS score and type of CDA were assessed using logistic multivariable regression and multivariable ordinal regression models, respectively.
Over 11.8 ± 5.4 years, 16,731 CDA events occurred in 8998 (55.8%) patients. PIRA (12,175) accounted for 72.3% of CDA. SDA occurred in 8912 (73.2%) PIRA and 2583 (56.7%) RAW (p < 0.001). 4453 (27.6%) patients transitioned to SPMS, 4010 (73.2%) out of 5476 patients with sustained PIRA and 443 (24.8%) out of 1790 patients with non-sustained PIRA. In the multivariable ordinal regression analysis, higher final EDSS score was associated with PIRA (estimated coefficient 0.349, 95% CI 0.120-0.577, p = 0.003).
In this real-world relapsing-onset MS cohort, PIRA was the main driver of disability accumulation and was associated with higher disability in the long term. Sustained PIRA was linked to transition to SP and could represent a more accurate PIRA definition and a criterion to mark the putative onset of the progressive phase.
The aim of this work was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of multiple sclerosis relapses; assess the relationship between sex and primary progressive disease course; and compare effects ...of age and disease duration on relapse incidence. Annualized relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or <1 year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of multiple sclerosis or 70 years of age were compared between females and males with Andersen-Gill and Tweedie models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and primary progressive multiple sclerosis. The study cohort consisted of 11 570 eligible patients with relapse-onset and 881 patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Among the relapse-onset patients (82 552 patient-years), 48,362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared with males. Within the initial 5 years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 versus ≥4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer disease duration and older age (P < 10(-12)). However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Patient age was a more important determinant of decline in relapse incidence than disease duration (P < 10(-12)). Females are predisposed to higher relapse activity than males. However, this difference does not explain the markedly lower female-to-male sex ratio in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Decline in relapse activity over time is more closely related to patient age than disease duration.
Background:
The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested.
Objective:
The aim of this study was to determine the ...demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.
Methods:
Patients with adult-onset relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed.
Results:
A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion.
Conclusion:
Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression.
•Temporal neural networks allow to significantly improve the prediction of disability progression in MS patients.•Disability progression can be predicted in a 2-year horizon can be predicted with an ...AUC-ROC of 0.85.•Longitudinal clinical history of the patients ranks amongst the most predictive variables for disability progression.
Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem.
We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used.
We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features.
Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS.
•CI is common in MS and its prevalence rate ranges between 22% and 70%.•DKEFS-ST is the test with the highest ability to discriminate CI in MS.•SRT and 10/36 SPART are the most sensitive memory tests ...in MS.
Cognitive impairment (CI) is common in Multiple Sclerosis (MS), and its prevalence rate ranges between 22% and 70%. Because CI significantly impacts vocational status, caregiver burden, and quality of life, an accurate neuropsychological assessment is required. Three widely used and validated batteries for MS-associated CI are the Brief Repeatable Neuropsychological Battery (BRN-B), the Minimal Assessment of Cognitive Function (MACFIMS), and the Brief International Cognitive Assessment (BICAMS). Although similar, these batteries differ in time-consuming and in specific tests employed. This study aims to assess the sensitivity of cognitive tests included in these batteries through an Item Response Theory approach.
Ninety-seven patients with MS and 91 demographically matched controls (HC) were consecutively assessed using the three neuropsychological batteries (i.e., BRN-B, MACFIMS, and BICAMS). Continuous Response Model (CRM) was used to identify the cognitive test(s) that best discriminate patients with MS from HC. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the accuracy of the CRM results.
Cognitive tests loaded on two different latent variables: the ‘higher-order executive functioning,’ consisting of tests assessing concept formation, problem-solving, and inhibitory control, and the ‘memory and information processing speed,’ comprising tests assessing long-term, working memory, and information processing speed. The Delis Kaplan Executive Functioning System-Sorting Test and the Stroop Test were the most sensitive tests in differentiating cognitive functioning between MS and HC.
This study confirms the importance of including a more extensive executive assessment in MS clinical practice since higher-order executive functions (e.g., abstraction and inhibitory control) significantly impact patients’ quality of life and functional autonomy. Clinical implications of careful dissection of executive functioning in MS neuropsychological assessment are discussed.
The enforcement of complete lockdown with home confinement has been necessary to limit SARS-CoV-2 contagions in Italy, one the most affected countries worldwide. Simultaneously, in several Emergency ...Departments, a reduction in cardio- and cerebrovascular presentations was noticed. This study analyses the impact of Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown measures on the incidence of stroke, in Campania, the most densely-populated region in Italy.
We retrospectively analyzed data regarding acute stroke patients presenting at 5 Campania stroke hubs, before and after the issue of lockdown in Italy on March 9th, 2020.
Compared to the pre-lockdown, we observed a significant reduction in the number of acute reperfusion treatments in stroke (P for interact 0.001); however the global number of patients presenting with acute stroke did not significantly differ. The time to reach medical attention was significantly longer in the lockdown phase (230 versus 154 min, P 0.016). For patients who underwent acute reperfusion treatment we also observed significantly longer time-to-imaging (30 versus 40 min, P 0.0005) and a trend to longer time-to-needle (75 versus 90 min P 0.23), but not time-to-groin.
This study showed the reduction in acute reperfusion treatments for acute ischemic stroke and the slowdown of stroke pathways, during the lockdown phase of Covid-19 pandemic, in Campania, the third-most-populous and the most-densely populated Italian Region. In the next future, the risk for high-grade disability and death, due to delayed or even avoided hospital presentation due to fear of contagion, may be high.
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