This study was conducted by using autoregressive (AR) modeling and data-driven techniques which include gene expression programming (GEP), radial basis function network and feed-forward neural ...networks, and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques to forecast monthly mean flow for Kızılırmak River in Turkey. The lagged monthly river flow measurements from 1955 to 1995 were taken into consideration for development of the models. The correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error performance criteria were used for evaluating the accuracy of the developed models. When the results of developed models were compared with flow measurements using these criteria, it was shown that the AR(2) model gave the best performance among all developed models and the GEP and ANFIS models had good performance in data-driven techniques.
İklim değişikliği ile birlikte kuraklık olaylarında artışlar meydana gelmektedir. Kuraklık, diğer doğal afetlere göre geniş alanlar için uzun zaman dilimlerinde meydana gelen bir afettir. Bu nedenle, ...kuraklığın önceden tahmin edilerek önlemlerin alınması önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, uzun vadede kuraklığı yüksek doğrulukla tahmin etmek için uzun-kısa süreli bellek ağı (LSTM) yöntemi önerilmiştir. Öncelikle Isparta meteoroloji istasyonuna ait 1929-2021 yılları arasında ölçülen aylık toplam yağışlar kullanılarak LSTM yöntemi ile gelecek 10 yılda oluşması muhtemel aylık yağışlar tahmin edilmiştir. Hem mevcut hem de gelecek 10 yıl için tahmin edilen her iki yağış serisinin tanımlayıcı istatistiki özellikleri incelendiğinde benzerlikler görülmüştür. Daha sonra 1929-2021 yılları ve gelecek 10 yıl için standart yağış indis (SYİ) değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Aynı zamanda, 1929-2021 yılları arasındaki yağış verileri için elde edilen SYİ değerleri ile gelecek 10 yıl için hesaplanan SYİ değerlerinin eğilimleri incelenmiş ve tüm zaman aralıkları ve gelecek 10 yıllık verilerin eğilim analizinin RCP4.5 yağış projeksiyonları ile benzerlikleri ele alınmıştır.
There is an increase in drought events with climate change. Drought is a disaster that occurs over long periods of time for large areas compared to other natural disasters. For this reason, it is important to forecast the drought and take precautions. In this study, a long-short term memory network (LSTM) method is proposed to predict drought in the long term with high accuracy. Firstly, monthly precipitation values that are likely to occur in the next 10 years were estimated using the LSTM method with the monthly total precipitation measured between 1929-2021 belonging to the Isparta meteorology station. When the descriptive statistical properties of both precipitation series, which are predicted for both the current and the next 10 years, were examined, the similarities were seen. Then, standardized precipitation index (SPI) values were calculated for the years 1929-2021 and the next 10 years. At the same time, the trends of the SPI values obtained for the precipitation data between 1929 and 2021 and the SPI values calculated for the next 10 years were examined and the similarities of the trend analysis of all time intervals and the next 10 years’ data with the RCP4.5 precipitation projections were discussed.
In this study, flood risk areas were determined with Hec-RAS hydraulic model for the Küçük Aksu River in Antalya, Turkey. Firstly, Hec-RAS models were developed according to different recurrence flow ...rates and, flood propagation maps and flood depth maps were generated. As a result of the model that was developed by using a 100-year flood recurrence flow rate, it was seen that 6.04 ha of the residential area and 33.73 ha of the agricultural area is submerged. The maximum water level was determined as 11.60 m according to the 100-year flood recurrence flow rate. Then, structural flood analysis was performed using the depth-damage graph for the Küçük Aksu River. As a result of this analysis, it was seen that the economic loss caused by floods was between 1.152 million-1.946 million TL.
Bu çalışmada, Antalya ilinde bulunan Küçük Aksu Çayı’nda Hec-RAS ile taşkın riski olan alanlar belirlenmiştir. İlk olarak, farklı tekerrür debilerine göre Hec-RAS modelleri geliştirilmiş ve taşkın yayılım haritaları ile taşkın derinlik haritaları oluşturulmuştur. 100 yıllık taşkın tekerrür debisi kullanılarak geliştirilen model sonucunda 6,04 ha yerleşim alanı ile 33,73 ha tarım alanının su altında kaldığı görülmüştür. 100 yıllık taşkın tekerrür debisine karşılık gelen maksimum su yüksekliği 11,60 m olarak saptanmıştır. Daha sonra derinlik-hasar grafiği yardımıyla Küçük Aksu Çayı için yapısal taşkın analizi yapılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda taşkınların neden olduğu ekonomik kaybın 1.152 milyon-1.946 milyon TL arasında olduğu görülmüştür.
Background
Chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) is a common disease both in the pediatric and in the adult population. However, there are differences between the two patient populations with respect ...to etiological factors, comorbidities, and treatment responses. Our aim was to determine differences between pediatric and adult CSU in terms of clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, comorbidities, response to treatment, and indicators of response.
Methods
A retrospective analysis of CSU patients was performed. Data regarding differences between pediatric and adult CSU patients were analyzed. Indicators of treatment response were determined separately in both pediatric and adult patients.
Results
Of 751 CSU patients (162 pediatrics and 589 adults), female dominancy (48.8% vs. 69.6%) and rate of angioedema (19.1% vs. 59.8%) were lower, and disease duration (5 months vs. 12 months) was shorter in pediatric patients. Anti‐TPO positivity (24.7% vs. 9%), elevated CRP (46.5% vs. 11.1%), eosinopenia (38.5% vs. 18.1%), and skin prick test positivity (39.3% vs. 28.8%) were significantly more frequent in adult patients. Response to antihistamines was higher in the pediatric group, and only 7% used omalizumab versus 20.8% in the adults. The comparisons were also performed between <12‐year and ≥12‐year patients and yielded similar results.
Conclusion
Pediatric CSU shows distinct characteristics such as lower incidence of angioedema and antithyroid antibodies, and it responds better to antihistamines. These suggest that CSU becomes more severe and refractory in adolescents and adults. Adolescent CSU shows features similar to adult CSU rather than pediatric CSU.
Objective: Despite advancing technology, national TB surveillance systems are still inadequate in terms of patient detection around the world. It was aimed to investigate suspicious cases detected by ...active surveillance method in pathology laboratories and to evaluate the effectiveness of this method in terms of finding new TB cases. Methods: This is a descriptive cross-sectional study. It was administrated in Samsun, Turkey, between January 2012-December 2017. Within the scope of active surveillance, pathology laboratories were regularly visited and reported cases with granulomatous inflammation were assessed. The obtained patient list was compared with the records of the Electronic Tuberculosis Management System (ETMS). Patients who were not included in these records were invited to the dispensary and evaluated for TB. They were also referred to the relevant hospitals for diagnosis if necessary. Frequency values and descriptive statistics were calculated using SPSS method. Results: It was found that 35.6% of 703 patients with the diagnosis of granulomatous inflammation were previously diagnosed, treated or rently treatment in the ETMS registry. As a result of the assessment of remaining 453 cases, 46 patients (10.1%) were newly diagnosed with TB. Newly diagnosed TB patients were reported, and their treatment started. Conclusion: As a result, active surveillance method conducted in pathology laboratories are used to detect unknown or late reported TB cases and allows to start treatment without further delay.
Objective: Vaccine hesitancy is driven by many factors and varies across time. People with vaccine hesitancy may change their decision in the case of COVID-19 pandemic. Our study aimed to evaluate ...parents' pandemic related perceived stress levels and its effects on vaccine hesitation, also their willingness towards the COVID-19 vaccine. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was practiced with an open-access online survey program through social networks. Parents aged between 18 and 49 years, who had at least one child and agreed to participate in this study constituted the population (n=440). The questionnaire consisted of 14 questions about socio-demographic characteristics of parents, their attitudes and behaviors about childhood vaccines and the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). Results: Four hundred forty parents participated in this study, 377 (85.7%) of them stated that they thought positively towards the vaccines, 55 (12.5%) were hesitant. After the pandemic, 22 (40.0%) of 55 participants who had hesitations stated that now they believe vaccines are necessary. Of all participants, 43.4% stated they would definitely, 30.5% would probably have the COVID-19 vaccine administered. Participants who had high-stress levels perceived more vaccine hesitation. Conclusion: Pandemia may change people's opinions about vaccine hesitancy. Even if an effective vaccine is developed in case of a pandemic, people need to be told correctly, to create a demand for vaccination. Keywords: Vaccine hesitancy, COVID-19, pandemic, stress.
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