Summary Background Tuberculosis incidence in the UK has risen in the past decade. Disease control depends on epidemiological data, which can be difficult to obtain. Whole-genome sequencing can detect ...microevolution within Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. We aimed to estimate the genetic diversity of related M tuberculosis strains in the UK Midlands and to investigate how this measurement might be used to investigate community outbreaks. Methods In a retrospective observational study, we used Illumina technology to sequence M tuberculosis genomes from an archive of frozen cultures. We characterised isolates into four groups: cross-sectional, longitudinal, household, and community. We measured pairwise nucleotide differences within hosts and between hosts in household outbreaks and estimated the rate of change in DNA sequences. We used the findings to interpret network diagrams constructed from 11 community clusters derived from mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit–variable-number tandem-repeat data. Findings We sequenced 390 separate isolates from 254 patients, including representatives from all five major lineages of M tuberculosis . The estimated rate of change in DNA sequences was 0·5 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) per genome per year (95% CI 0·3–0·7) in longitudinal isolates from 30 individuals and 25 families. Divergence is rarely higher than five SNPs in 3 years. 109 (96%) of 114 paired isolates from individuals and households differed by five or fewer SNPs. More than five SNPs separated isolates from none of 69 epidemiologically linked patients, two (15%) of 13 possibly linked patients, and 13 (17%) of 75 epidemiologically unlinked patients (three-way comparison exact p<0·0001). Genetic trees and clinical and epidemiological data suggest that super-spreaders were present in two community clusters. Interpretation Whole-genome sequencing can delineate outbreaks of tuberculosis and allows inference about direction of transmission between cases. The technique could identify super-spreaders and predict the existence of undiagnosed cases, potentially leading to early treatment of infectious patients and their contacts. Funding Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, and the Health Protection Agency.
Summary Background New approaches are urgently required to address increasing rates of gonorrhoea and the emergence and global spread of antibiotic-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae . We used ...whole-genome sequencing to study transmission and track resistance in N gonorrhoeae isolates. Methods We did whole-genome sequencing of isolates obtained from samples collected from patients attending sexual health services in Brighton, UK, between Jan 1, 2011, and March 9, 2015. We also included isolates from other UK locations, historical isolates from Brighton, and previous data from a US study. Samples from symptomatic patients and asymptomatic sexual health screening underwent nucleic acid amplification testing; positive samples and all samples from symptomatic patients were cultured for N gonorrhoeae , and resulting isolates were whole-genome sequenced. Cefixime susceptibility testing was done in selected isolates by agar incorporation, and we used sequence data to determine multi-antigen sequence types and penA genotypes. We derived a transmission nomogram to determine the plausibility of direct or indirect transmission between any two cases depending on the time between samples: estimated mutation rates, plus diversity noted within patients across anatomical sites and probable transmission pairs, were used to fit a coalescent model to determine the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms expected. Findings 1407 (98%) of 1437 Brighton isolates between Jan 1, 2011, and March 9, 2015 were successfully sequenced. We identified 1061 infections from 907 patients. 281 (26%) of these infections were indistinguishable (ie, differed by zero single nucleotide polymorphisms) from one or more previous cases, and 786 (74%) had evidence of a sampled direct or indirect Brighton source. We observed multiple related samples across geographical locations. Of 1273 infections in Brighton (including historical data), 225 (18%) were linked to another case elsewhere in the UK, and 115 (9%) to a case in the USA. Four lineages initially identified in Brighton could be linked to 70 USA sequences, including 61 from a lineage carrying the mosaic penA XXXIV allele, which is associated with reduced cefixime susceptibility. Interpretation We present a whole-genome-sequencing-based tool for genomic contact tracing of N gonorrhoeae and demonstrate local, national, and international transmission. Whole-genome sequencing can be applied across geographical boundaries to investigate gonorrhoea transmission and to track antimicrobial resistance. Funding Oxford National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit and Biomedical Research Centre.
Summary Background Health-care workers have been implicated in nosocomial outbreaks of Staphylococcus aureus , but the dearth of evidence from non-outbreak situations means that routine health-care ...worker screening and S aureus eradication are controversial. We aimed to determine how often S aureus is transmitted from health-care workers or the environment to patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and a high-dependency unit (HDU) where standard infection control measures were in place. Methods In this longitudinal cohort study, we systematically sampled health-care workers, the environment, and patients over 14 months at the ICU and HDU of the Royal Sussex County Hospital, Brighton, England. Nasal swabs were taken from health-care workers every 4 weeks, bed spaces were sampled monthly, and screening swabs were obtained from patients at admission to the ICU or HDU, weekly thereafter, and at discharge. Isolates were cultured and their whole genome sequenced, and we used the threshold of 40 single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) or fewer to define subtypes and infer recent transmission. Findings Between Oct 31, 2011, and Dec 23, 2012, we sampled 198 health-care workers, 40 environmental locations, and 1854 patients; 1819 isolates were sequenced. Median nasal carriage rate of S aureus in health-care workers at 4-weekly timepoints was 36·9% (IQR 35·7–37·3), and 115 (58%) health-care workers had S aureus detected at least once during the study. S aureus was identified in 8–50% of environmental samples. 605 genetically distinct subtypes were identified (median SNV difference 273, IQR 162–399) at a rate of 38 (IQR 34–42) per 4-weekly cycle. Only 25 instances of transmission to patients (seven from health-care workers, two from the environment, and 16 from other patients) were detected. Interpretation In the presence of standard infection control measures, health-care workers were infrequently sources of transmission to patients. S aureus epidemiology in the ICU and HDU is characterised by continuous ingress of distinct subtypes rather than transmission of genetically related strains. Funding UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Public Health England.
Abstract Background Epidemiological investigations into Mycobacterium tuberculosis outbreaks use 24-locus genotyping (MIRU-VNTR typing). Where no epidemiological link can be found between patients, ...the importance of shared genotypes remains unclear. This issue is especially problematic and time-consuming when tracing contacts within some social groups at high tuberculosis risk, in which unwillingness to volunteer information is common. We investigated whether whole-genome sequencing (WGS) could delineate outbreaks with greater resolution than MIRU-VNTR typing has done. Methods We sequenced 390 M tuberculosis isolates from 254 patients from the UK Midlands (1994–2011) using Illumina technology ( appendix ). We estimated the expected genomic diversity between isolates within a transmission chain by measuring pairwise nucleotide differences between genomes within hosts (79 individuals with pulmonary and extrapulmonary disease, or multiple pulmonary episodes) and between hosts within 25 household outbreaks (63 individuals). We then investigated 11 MIRU-VNTR-based community clusters (168 patients, 157 transmission events) to assess whether WGS could delineate outbreaks more effectively. For each cluster we reconstructed the most plausible transmission chain based on epidemiological data collected by tuberculosis nurses, pairwise nucleotide distances, and times of diagnosis, and compared the genomic diversity across these constructed links with that within individuals and within household outbreaks. Findings 109 (96%) of 114 isolates were within five SNPs of another isolate taken from the same individual or from an individual in the same household outbreak. On the basis of longitudinal isolates from individuals or households, we estimated an evolutionary rate of 0·5 SNPs per genome per year, consistent with a maximum of five SNPs between related isolates 3 years or less apart. Using a greater than five SNP threshold to assess 11 MIRU-VNTR-based community clusters, we found that none of 69 epidemiologically related pairs of MIRU-VNTR-matched cases plausibly related by transmission, two of 13 possibly related pairs, and 13 of 75 pairs with no known epidemiological relation were separated by more than five SNPs (p<0·0001). Seven MIRU-VNTR-matched pairs with no epidemiological relation had more than 30 SNPs, five of seven belonging to the same immigrant community cluster. WGS also showed that 62 of 75 MIRU-VNTR-matched pairs for which no epidemiological relation had been identified from contact tracing were highly likely to indicate transmission: in one substance misuse cluster, 38 individuals were linked by five or fewer SNPs without a single epidemiological link having been established previously. Further analysis suggested that microevolutionary divergence of lineages within outbreaks could signal possible super-spreaders, corroborated by clinical and epidemiological data in two clusters. Interpretation WGS can delineate tuberculosis outbreaks with greater resolution than has previously been possible. These findings offer public health teams the potential to limit outbreak investigations to patients who are likely to be linked by recent transmission, irrespective of whether it has been possible to identify epidemiological links, and to save resources where they are not, even in the context of matched MIRU-VNTR genotypes. Uniquely, WGS also provides information about the genetic structure of outbreak clusters, thereby providing the potential to direct public health resources towards individuals most likely to have infected the largest number of secondary cases. As a consequence, the Health Protection Agency is considering introduction of WGS technology for routine tuberculosis public health practice in England. Funding NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the UKCRC Modernising Medical Microbiology Consortium (UKCRC Translational Infection Research Initiative supported by MRC, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, and NIHR on behalf of the Department of Health grant G0800778 and the Wellcome Trust 087646/Z/08/Z ).
Summary Background Diagnosing drug-resistance remains an obstacle to the elimination of tuberculosis. Phenotypic drug-susceptibility testing is slow and expensive, and commercial genotypic assays ...screen only common resistance-determining mutations. We used whole-genome sequencing to characterise common and rare mutations predicting drug resistance, or consistency with susceptibility, for all first-line and second-line drugs for tuberculosis. Methods Between Sept 1, 2010, and Dec 1, 2013, we sequenced a training set of 2099 Mycobacterium tuberculosis genomes. For 23 candidate genes identified from the drug-resistance scientific literature, we algorithmically characterised genetic mutations as not conferring resistance (benign), resistance determinants, or uncharacterised. We then assessed the ability of these characterisations to predict phenotypic drug-susceptibility testing for an independent validation set of 1552 genomes. We sought mutations under similar selection pressure to those characterised as resistance determinants outside candidate genes to account for residual phenotypic resistance. Findings We characterised 120 training-set mutations as resistance determining, and 772 as benign. With these mutations, we could predict 89·2% of the validation-set phenotypes with a mean 92·3% sensitivity (95% CI 90·7–93·7) and 98·4% specificity (98·1–98·7). 10·8% of validation-set phenotypes could not be predicted because uncharacterised mutations were present. With an in-silico comparison, characterised resistance determinants had higher sensitivity than the mutations from three line-probe assays (85·1% vs 81·6%). No additional resistance determinants were identified among mutations under selection pressure in non-candidate genes. Interpretation A broad catalogue of genetic mutations enable data from whole-genome sequencing to be used clinically to predict drug resistance, drug susceptibility, or to identify drug phenotypes that cannot yet be genetically predicted. This approach could be integrated into routine diagnostic workflows, phasing out phenotypic drug-susceptibility testing while reporting drug resistance early. Funding Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research, Medical Research Council, and the European Union.
Abstract Background Approximately 7% of American adults have severe hypercholesterolemia (untreated low-density lipoprotein LDL cholesterol ≥190 mg/dl), which may be due to familial ...hypercholesterolemia (FH). Lifelong LDL cholesterol elevations in FH mutation carriers may confer coronary artery disease (CAD) risk beyond that captured by a single LDL cholesterol measurement. Objectives This study assessed the prevalence of an FH mutation among those with severe hypercholesterolemia and determined whether CAD risk varies according to mutation status beyond the observed LDL cholesterol level. Methods Three genes causative for FH ( LDLR , APOB , and PCSK9 ) were sequenced in 26,025 participants from 7 case-control studies (5,540 CAD case subjects, 8,577 CAD-free control subjects) and 5 prospective cohort studies (11,908 participants). FH mutations included loss-of-function variants in LDLR , missense mutations in LDLR predicted to be damaging, and variants linked to FH in ClinVar, a clinical genetics database. Results Among 20,485 CAD-free control and prospective cohort participants, 1,386 (6.7%) had LDL cholesterol ≥190 mg/dl; of these, only 24 (1.7%) carried an FH mutation. Within any stratum of observed LDL cholesterol, risk of CAD was higher among FH mutation carriers than noncarriers. Compared with a reference group with LDL cholesterol <130 mg/dl and no mutation, participants with LDL cholesterol ≥190 mg/dl and no FH mutation had a 6-fold higher risk for CAD (odds ratio: 6.0; 95% confidence interval: 5.2 to 6.9), whereas those with both LDL cholesterol ≥190 mg/dl and an FH mutation demonstrated a 22-fold increased risk (odds ratio: 22.3; 95% confidence interval: 10.7 to 53.2). In an analysis of participants with serial lipid measurements over many years, FH mutation carriers had higher cumulative exposure to LDL cholesterol than noncarriers. Conclusions Among participants with LDL cholesterol ≥190 mg/dl, gene sequencing identified an FH mutation in <2%. However, for any observed LDL cholesterol, FH mutation carriers had substantially increased risk for CAD.
Summary Background The control of Clostridium difficile infections is an international clinical challenge. The incidence of C difficile in England declined by roughly 80% after 2006, following the ...implementation of national control policies; we tested two hypotheses to investigate their role in this decline. First, if C difficile infection declines in England were driven by reductions in use of particular antibiotics, then incidence of C difficile infections caused by resistant isolates should decline faster than that caused by susceptible isolates across multiple genotypes. Second, if C difficile infection declines were driven by improvements in hospital infection control, then transmitted (secondary) cases should decline regardless of susceptibility. Methods Regional (Oxfordshire and Leeds, UK) and national data for the incidence of C difficile infections and antimicrobial prescribing data (1998–2014) were combined with whole genome sequences from 4045 national and international C difficile isolates. Genotype (multilocus sequence type) and fluoroquinolone susceptibility were determined from whole genome sequences. The incidence of C difficile infections caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant and fluoroquinolone-susceptible isolates was estimated with negative-binomial regression, overall and per genotype. Selection and transmission were investigated with phylogenetic analyses. Findings National fluoroquinolone and cephalosporin prescribing correlated highly with incidence of C difficile infections (cross-correlations >0·88), by contrast with total antibiotic prescribing (cross-correlations <0·59). Regionally, C difficile decline was driven by elimination of fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates (approximately 67% of Oxfordshire infections in September, 2006, falling to approximately 3% in February, 2013; annual incidence rate ratio 0·52, 95% CI 0·48–0·56 vs fluoroquinolone-susceptible isolates: 1·02, 0·97–1·08). C difficile infections caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates declined in four distinct genotypes (p<0·01). The regions of phylogenies containing fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates were short-branched and geographically structured, consistent with selection and rapid transmission. The importance of fluoroquinolone restriction over infection control was shown by significant declines in inferred secondary (transmitted) cases caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates with or without hospital contact (p<0·0001) versus no change in either group of cases caused by fluoroquinolone-susceptible isolates (p>0·2). Interpretation Restricting fluoroquinolone prescribing appears to explain the decline in incidence of C difficile infections, above other measures, in Oxfordshire and Leeds, England. Antimicrobial stewardship should be a central component of C difficile infection control programmes. Funding UK Clinical Research Collaboration (Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research); NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit on Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance (Oxford University in partnership with Public Health England PHE), and on Modelling Methodology (Imperial College, London in partnership with PHE); and the Health Innovation Challenge Fund.
Abstract Background Genomic analyses have suggested that the LPA gene and its associated plasma biomarker, lipoprotein(a) (Lpa), represent a causal risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). As ...such, lowering Lp(a) levels has emerged as a therapeutic strategy. Beyond target identification, human genetics may contribute to the development of new therapies by defining the full spectrum of beneficial and adverse consequences and by developing a dose–response curve of target perturbation. Objectives The goal of this study was to establish the full phenotypic impact of LPA gene variation and to estimate a dose–response curve between genetically altered plasma Lp(a) and risk for CHD. Methods We leveraged genetic variants at the LPA gene from 3 data sources: individual-level data from 112,338 participants in the U.K. Biobank; summary association results from large-scale genome-wide association studies; and LPA gene sequencing results from case subjects with CHD and control subjects free of CHD. Results One SD genetically lowered Lp(a) level was associated with a 29% lower risk of CHD (odds ratio OR: 0.71; 95% confidence interval CI: 0.69 to 0.73), a 31% lower risk of peripheral vascular disease (OR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.80), a 13% lower risk of stroke (OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79 to 0.96), a 17% lower risk of heart failure (OR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.73 to 0.94), and a 37% lower risk of aortic stenosis (OR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.83). We observed no association with 31 other disorders, including type 2 diabetes and cancer. Variants that led to gain of LPA gene function increased the risk for CHD, whereas those that led to loss of gene function reduced the CHD risk. Conclusions Beyond CHD, genetically lowered Lp(a) levels are associated with a lower risk of peripheral vascular disease, stroke, heart failure, and aortic stenosis. As such, pharmacological lowering of plasma Lp(a) may influence a range of atherosclerosis-related diseases.
Summary Background New WHO guidelines recommend initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive adults with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, a higher threshold than was previously ...recommended. Country decision makers have to decide whether to further expand eligibility for antiretroviral therapy accordingly. We aimed to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage. Methods We used several independent mathematical models in four settings—South Africa (generalised epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), Zambia (generalised epidemic, high antiretroviral therapy coverage), India (concentrated epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), and Vietnam (concentrated epidemic, low antiretroviral therapy coverage)—to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy under scenarios of existing and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses assessed the extension of eligibility to include individuals with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, or all HIV-positive adults, compared with the previous (2010) recommendation of initiation with CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or less. We assessed costs from a health-system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost (in US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted to compare competing strategies. Strategies were regarded very cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than the country's 2012 per-head gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040; Zambia: $1425; India: $1489; Vietnam: $1407) and cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than three times the per-head GDP. Findings In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending eligibility for antiretroviral therapy to adult patients with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less ranged from $237 to $1691 per DALY averted compared with 2010 guidelines. In Zambia, expansion of eligibility to adults with a CD4 count threshold of 500 cells per μL ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (ie, dominating the previous guidelines) to $749 per DALY averted. In both countries results were similar for expansion of eligibility to all HIV-positive adults, and when substantially expanded treatment coverage was assumed. Expansion of treatment coverage in the general population was also cost effective. In India, the cost for extending eligibility to all HIV-positive adults ranged from $131 to $241 per DALY averted, and in Vietnam extending eligibility to patients with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less cost $290 per DALY averted. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access for key populations was also cost effective. Interpretation Our estimates suggest that earlier eligibility for antiretroviral therapy is very cost effective in low-income and middle-income settings, although these estimates should be revisited when more data become available. Scaling up antiretroviral therapy through earlier eligibility and expanded coverage should be considered alongside other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.
Molecular diagnostics are considered the most promising route to achievement of rapid, universal drug susceptibility testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). We aimed to generate a ...WHO-endorsed catalogue of mutations to serve as a global standard for interpreting molecular information for drug resistance prediction.
In this systematic analysis, we used a candidate gene approach to identify mutations associated with resistance or consistent with susceptibility for 13 WHO-endorsed antituberculosis drugs. We collected existing worldwide MTBC whole-genome sequencing data and phenotypic data from academic groups and consortia, reference laboratories, public health organisations, and published literature. We categorised phenotypes as follows: methods and critical concentrations currently endorsed by WHO (category 1); critical concentrations previously endorsed by WHO for those methods (category 2); methods or critical concentrations not currently endorsed by WHO (category 3). For each mutation, we used a contingency table of binary phenotypes and presence or absence of the mutation to compute positive predictive value, and we used Fisher's exact tests to generate odds ratios and Benjamini-Hochberg corrected p values. Mutations were graded as associated with resistance if present in at least five isolates, if the odds ratio was more than 1 with a statistically significant corrected p value, and if the lower bound of the 95% CI on the positive predictive value for phenotypic resistance was greater than 25%. A series of expert rules were applied for final confidence grading of each mutation.
We analysed 41 137 MTBC isolates with phenotypic and whole-genome sequencing data from 45 countries. 38 215 MTBC isolates passed quality control steps and were included in the final analysis. 15 667 associations were computed for 13 211 unique mutations linked to one or more drugs. 1149 (7·3%) of 15 667 mutations were classified as associated with phenotypic resistance and 107 (0·7%) were deemed consistent with susceptibility. For rifampicin, isoniazid, ethambutol, fluoroquinolones, and streptomycin, the mutations' pooled sensitivity was more than 80%. Specificity was over 95% for all drugs except ethionamide (91·4%), moxifloxacin (91·6%) and ethambutol (93·3%). Only two resistance mutations were identified for bedaquiline, delamanid, clofazimine, and linezolid as prevalence of phenotypic resistance was low for these drugs.
We present the first WHO-endorsed catalogue of molecular targets for MTBC drug susceptibility testing, which is intended to provide a global standard for resistance interpretation. The existence of this catalogue should encourage the implementation of molecular diagnostics by national tuberculosis programmes.
Unitaid, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
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