Australia's iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR) continues to suffer from repeated impacts of cyclones, coral bleaching, and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), losing much of ...its coral cover in the process. This raises the question of the ecosystem's systemic resilience and its ability to rebound after large-scale population loss. Here, we reveal that around 100 reefs of the GBR, or around 3%, have the ideal properties to facilitate recovery of disturbed areas, thereby imparting a level of systemic resilience and aiding its continued recovery. These reefs (1) are highly connected by ocean currents to the wider reef network, (2) have a relatively low risk of exposure to disturbances so that they are likely to provide replenishment when other reefs are depleted, and (3) have an ability to promote recovery of desirable species but are unlikely to either experience or spread COTS outbreaks. The great replenishment potential of these 'robust source reefs', which may supply 47% of the ecosystem in a single dispersal event, emerges from the interaction between oceanographic conditions and geographic location, a process that is likely to be repeated in other reef systems. Such natural resilience of reef systems will become increasingly important as the frequency of disturbances accelerates under climate change.
Patients with the genetic blistering skin condition epidermolysis bullosa (EB) report severe pain as a consequence of skin and mucous membrane lesions including blisters, wounds, and scars. Adequate ...symptom alleviation is not often achieved using conventional pharmacologic interventions. Finding novel approaches to pain care in EB is imperative to improve the quality of life of patients living with EB. There are several anecdotal reports on the use of cannabinoid-based medicines (CBMs) by EB patients to reduce the burden of symptoms. However, controlled clinical investigations assessing these reported effects are lacking. As the pain quality "unpleasantness" delineates EB pain, we hypothesize the modulation of affective pain processing in the brain by way of intervention with CBMs comprising the cannabinoids Δ-9-tetrahydrocannabinol and cannabidiol-objectified by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The C4EB study is an investigator-initiated, single-centre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled and crossover trial. Adult patients with the diagnosis epidermolysis bullosa, reporting chronic pain will be eligible to participate. Following baseline measurements, participants will be randomized to receive the sublingually administered interventions placebo and Transvamix® in forward or reversed orders, each for two weeks and separated by a washout. The primary outcome is the difference in numeric rating scale pain scores between grouped interventions, using affective descriptors within the Short-form McGill Pain Questionnaire-2. Secondary outcomes include pain self-efficacy, concomitant analgesic medication-use and adverse events. Additionally, fMRI will be employed to assess brain connectivity related to neuroanatomic pain circuits at baseline, placebo and Transvamix® interventions. The study was approved by the ethical committee at the University Medical Center of Groningen in the Netherlands. Results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Trial registration number: Netherlands Trial Register: NL9347 (Acronym: C4EB).
Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown‐of‐thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run‐off and warming events that drive mass ...coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017–2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near‐term, relative to current state, followed by climate‐driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business‐as‐usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate‐driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR‐wide reef performance will decline 27%–74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions.
Our paper addresses two questions of relevance for coral reef management and policy worldwide. First, what is the expected decline in coral under different carbon emissions scenarios? Second, what is the capacity for local and regional management actions to counter that decline? We use a mechanistic model of coral dynamics to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections, cyclones and local stressors. We demonstrate that management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong carbon mitigation.
Savanna fires produce significant emissions globally, but if managed effectively could provide an important mitigation opportunity, particularly in African least developed countries. Here we show ...global opportunities for emissions reductions through early dry season burning for 37 countries including: 29 countries in Africa (69.1 MtCO
-e yr
), six countries in South America (13.3 MtCO
-e yr
), and Australia and Papua New Guinea (6.9 MtCO
-e yr
). Emissions reduction estimates are based on the successful approach developed in Australia to reduce emissions from savanna fires using global-scale, remotely sensed estimates of monthly emissions. Importantly, 20 least developed countries in Africa account for 74% of the mitigation potential (60.2 MtCO
-e yr
). More than 1.02 million km
of savanna dominated protected areas within these countries could be used as pilot sites to test and advance a regional approach to mitigation efforts for savanna fires in Africa. Potential versus actual abatement opportunities are discussed.
Epidermolysis bullosa (EB) patient anecdotes and case reports indicate that cannabinoid-based medicines (CBMs) may alleviate pain and pruritus and improve wound healing. CBM use has not been ...characterized in the EB patient population.
To evaluate CBM use among EB patients, including CBM types, effects on symptoms (e.g., pain and pruritus), disease process (e.g., blistering, wounds, and inflammation), well-being (e.g., sleep, appetite) and concomitant medications.
English-speaking EB patients or caregivers completed an online international, anonymous, cross-sectional survey regarding CBM use. Respondents reported the types of CBMs, subsequent effects including perceived EB symptom alteration, changes in medication use, and side effects.
Seventy-one EB patients from five continents reported using or having used CBMs to treat their EB. Missing question responses ranged between 0 (0%) and 33 (46%). Most used more than one CBM preparation (mean: 2.4 ± 1.5) and route of administration (mean: 2.1 ± 1.1). Topical and ingested were the most common routes. Pain and pruritus were reported retrospectively to decrease by 3 points (scale: 0-10; p < 0.001 for both) after CBM use. Most reported that CBM use improved their overall EB symptoms (95%), pain (94%), pruritus (91%) and wound healing (81%). Most participants (79%) reported decreased use of pain medications. The most common side-effect was dry mouth (44%).
CBMs improve the perception of pain, pruritus, wound healing, and well-being in EB patients and reduced concomitant medication use. Nevertheless, a direct relation between the use of CBMs and reduction of the above-mentioned symptoms cannot be proven by these data. Therefore, future controlled studies using pharmaceutically standardised CBM preparations in EB are warranted to delineate the risks and benefits of CBMs.
Abstract
Humid heat impacts a large portion of the world’s population that works outdoors. Previous studies have quantified humid heat impacts on labor productivity by relying on exposure response ...functions that are based on uncontrolled experiments under a limited range of heat and humidity. Here we use the latest empirical model, based on a wider range of temperatures and humidity, for studying the impact of humid heat and recent climate change on labor productivity. We show that globally, humid heat may currently be associated with over 650 billion hours of annual lost labor (148 million full time equivalent jobs lost), 400 billion hours more than previous estimates. These differences in labor loss estimates are comparable to losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Globally, annual heat-induced labor productivity losses are estimated at 2.1 trillion in 2017 PPP$, and in several countries are equivalent to more than 10% of gross domestic product. Over the last four decades, global heat-related labor losses increased by at least 9% (>60 billion hours annually using the new empirical model) highlighting that relatively small changes in climate (<0.5 °C) can have large impacts on global labor and the economy.
Accelerating deforestation rates in Earth's tropical rainforests have dramatic impacts on local public health, agricultural productivity, and global climate change. We used satellite observations to ...quantify the local temperature changes in deforested patches of rainforests across the tropics and found local warming larger than that predicted from more than a century of climate change under a worst-case emissions scenario. We show that the most extreme warming is typically found in large patches of deforestation; the combined effects of deforestation and climate change on tropical temperatures present a uniquely difficult challenge to the long term public health, occupational safety, and economic security of tropical populations.
Despite being one of the most important and well-studied coral reefs in the world, the full extent of coral habitat of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is not well mapped and there is no current and ...comprehensive map of the GBR's geomorphic zonation or benthic composition. This paper demonstrates an approach that integrates ecological coral habitat mapping with empirical modelling to map the geomorphic zonation and benthic composition of the “shallow offshore reefs” of the GBR, using the Capricorn Bunker Group (CBG) as a case study. The approach combined environmental data sets and geo-ecological rule sets to identify geomorphic zones. The benthic composition of individual geomorphic zones was mapped for: shallow reef flat zones, using object-based image analysis with context driven rules based on coral reef ecology; and reef slope zones, using levels of wave exposure to predict the distribution of coral types. The environmental data sets used were field-based benthic composition data, Landsat 8 OLI satellite image-derived bottom reflectance, water depth and slope (15 m × 15 m pixel size) data, reef impact data, and modelled wave exposure. The study showed that the combination of geomorphic-ecological rules and models with remote sensing imagery provided robust mapping results over a large (~2500 km2) reef system, of which 245 km2 was mapped as shallow coral reefs and 88 km2 of that was mapped as areas containing coral. Most importantly, the method produced defined the geomorphic zones and benthic composition of a study area that is significantly larger than the majority of coral reef remote sensing mapping projects previously published. With some modifications, the methods presented have the potential to be applied to the full extent of the shallow offshore reefs of the GBR, or any large reef globally. Monitoring and management of coral reefs for conservation and other purposes, at regional to global scales will benefit from the ability to produce and use this type of essential information on a regular basis.
•Integrated coral reef modelling and mapping using geomorphic and ecological rules•Geomorphic zonation mapped by bathymetry, waves and position on satellite data•Benthic habitat mapped by ecological context, empirical models and satellite data•A detailed reef habitat map not previously produced for such a large area
In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here ...we develop a high‐resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and tropical cyclones. Our projections reconstruct coral cover trajectories between 1996 and 2017 over a total reef area of 14,780 km2, predicting a mean annual coral loss of −0.67%/year mostly due to the impact of cyclones, followed by starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching. Coral growth rate was the highest for outer shelf coral communities characterized by digitate and tabulate Acropora spp. and exposed to low seasonal variations in salinity and sea surface temperature, and the lowest for inner‐shelf communities exposed to reduced water quality. We show that coral resilience (defined as the net effect of resistance and recovery following disturbance) was negatively related to the frequency of river plume conditions, and to reef accessibility to a lesser extent. Surprisingly, reef resilience was substantially lower within no‐take marine protected areas, however this difference was mostly driven by the effect of water quality. Our model provides a new validated, spatially explicit platform for identifying the reefs that face the greatest risk of biodiversity loss, and those that have the highest chances to persist under increasing disturbance regimes.
In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of coral cover that accounts for the cumulative impact of multiple disturbances from 1998 to 2017 across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. We identify the environmental drivers of coral growth for six major benthic communities, as well as anthropogenic correlates of reef resilience.
The accelerating loss of tropical forests in the 21st century has eliminated cooling services provided by trees in low latitude countries. Cooling services can protect rural communities and outdoor ...workers with little adaptive capacity from adverse heat exposure, which is expected to increase with climate change. Yet little is still known about whether cooling services can mitigate negative impacts of heat on labor productivity among rural outdoor workers. Through a field experiment in Indonesia, we show that worker productivity was 8.22% lower in deforested relative to forested settings, where wet bulb globe temperatures were, on average, 2.84 °C higher in deforested settings. We demonstrate that productivity losses are driven by behavioral adaptations in the form of increased number of work breaks, and provide evidence that suggests breaks are in part driven by awareness of heat effects on work. Our results indicate that the cooling services from forests have the potential for increasing resilience and adaptive capacity to local warming.
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