The geographical patterns of the Italian electoral discontent have been strengthened by the European elections of 2019. The growing populist sentiments have been fuelled by the political programmes ...focusing on national‐popular issues, which have pushed the escalation of the right‐wing sovereign/nationalist political parties. While the literature has stressed that long‐term socioeconomic structural decline is among the main reasons feeding the rise of the European distrust, little is yet known about the micro‐scale populist voting patterns in Italy. Through a parametric approach with linear models, the main determinants of discontent, at municipal level, are revealed and, specifically, it results that (un)employment, long‐term cultural change and immigration are the main drivers of the right‐wing populism intensity growth in the European elections of 2014 and 2019.
Resumen
Las pautas geográficas del descontento electoral italiano se han visto reforzadas por las elecciones europeas de 2019. El auge de los sentimientos populistas ha sido alimentado por los programas políticos centrados en temas populares y nacionales, que han causado una escalada de los partidos políticos de derecha en pro de la soberanía y los nacionalismos. Aunque la literatura ha subrayado que el declive estructural socioeconómico a largo plazo es una de las principales razones del aumento de la desconfianza en Europa, se sabe muy poco sobre los patrones de voto populista de microescala en Italia. Se empleó un enfoque paramétrico con modelos lineales para revelar los principales determinantes del descontento a nivel municipal y, específicamente, se observó que el (des)empleo, el cambio cultural a largo plazo y la inmigración son los principales impulsores del aumento de la intensidad del populismo de derechas en las elecciones europeas de 2014 y 2019.
抄録
イタリアにおける選挙に対する不満の地理的パターンは、2019年の欧州議会議員選挙によって強固になった。ポピュリズム的な感情の高まりは、右派の至上主義/民族主義的政党の台頭を促進した国家民族的な問題に焦点を当てた政治プログラムによって促進された。研究では長期的な社会経済的構造の衰退が、ヨーロッパの不信感を増大させる主な理由であることが強調しされているが、イタリアのミクロ規模のポピュリスト的投票パターンについてはほとんど知られていない。線形モデルを用いたパラメトリックアプローチにより、地方自治体レベルでの不満の主な決定要因が明らかになり、具体的には、雇用 (失業)、長期的な文化的変化及び外国からの移民が2014年と2019年の欧州議会議員選挙における右派ポピュリズムの急激な成長の主な要因であるとの結果が得られた。
This paper analyses the digital communication of Italian parties Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle during their campaigns for the European Parliament elections (January-May 2019). We focus on the Italian ...case as it is representative of a generalised shift in European public discourse towards an overt delegitimation of the European project and its re-imagination. In the Italian case, Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle, which were in a Government coalition for fourteen months, have been instrumental in Italy’s shift from a strong Europhile country to one of the most Eurosceptic. However, while Lega has definitely aligned itself with a strong right-wing populist agenda, Movimento 5 Stelle has promoted a populist technocratic vision of democracy. Our analysis shows that the articulation of Eurosceptic discourses from both parties by and large reflects the two stances above with Lega’s messages (primarily produced by its leader Matteo Salvini) characterised by a ‘hyperled’ style of communication and stronger nativist elements (for example the appeal to an ethno-centric and ‘sovereign’ idea of Italy) than those of Movimento 5 Stelle, which instead relied on a ‘horizontal’ communicative style. However, our data also shows that the delegitimation of Europe in both parties occur along a similar domestication of European affairs into the national political agenda and the call for a reformed Europe along nationalistic logics which both parties claimed to champion.
We ask whether and why European political parties receive election news coverage abroad and investigate this phenomenon by combining theoretical stipulations regarding the politicisation of European ...integration and the horizontal Europeanisation of national public spheres. Based on a content analysis of 64 newspapers in 16 European Union countries following the 2019 European Parliament election, we argue that contestation over European integration increases the likelihood that foreign journalists report election results from a particular member state. Eurosceptic parties are more often visible abroad than Europhile parties, unless they stood for election in a highly polarised party system. Our results have important implications for the European Union's legitimacy as contestation over European integration increases the chances for citizens to learn about election results in other European countries.
The article examines the four electoral contests (municipal, regional, European, and parliamentary) that took place in Greece in 2019 through the prism of the growing polarisation that has dominated ...Greek political life since the early 2010s. It is argued that with these elections, the decade-long political cycle that began with the economic crisis came to its conclusion. The new party system resembles the pre-crisis one, featuring a return of two-partyism, single-party governments, and competition along the left-right dimension. However, the legacy of the crisis period remains present, as the 'new' two-party system continues to be characterised by high degrees of affective polarisation and negative partisanship.
Most studies of party competition consider the presentation of ambiguous positions a costly strategy. This literature, however, does not study party strategies in multiple issue dimensions. Yet ...multidimensionality may play an important role in parties’ strategic calculus. Although it may be rational for a party to emphasize a certain issue dimension, it may be equally rational to disguise its stance on other dimensions by blurring its position. This article argues that parties employ strategies of issue emphasis and position blurring in various dimensional contexts. Who emphasizes and who blurs thus depends on the actors’ relative stakes in different issue dimensions. The paper makes its case by performing cross-sectional analyses of 132 political parties in 14 West European party systems using Comparative Manifesto Project data, the 2006 Chapel Hill expert survey and the 2009 European Election Study.
Whether citizens like or dislike federal policies often depends on regional differences. Because of geography, (economic) history or other path-dependent factors, certain regions are perceived to get ...more out of the union than others. We show that citizens, therefore, have a strategic incentive to elect Federal delegates that are more extreme than the representative voter. The intensity of such strategic delegation is U-shaped in expected benefits. The predictions of our model hence rationalise the voting differences we observe in the data between national and EU elections.
•Federalism can foster populism, extremism and polarisation.•Historical/economic factors influence perceptions of uneven union benefits across regions.•Citizens strategically elect more extreme federal delegates to achieve regional advantages.•Strategic delegation follows a U-shaped pattern depending on perceived benefits.•The model’s predictions align with voting differences between national and EU elections.
This article provides a normative assessment of parliamentary representation in fields of differentiated integration in the European Union. Based on three criteria of legitimate democratic ...representation, autonomy, accountability and equality, we evaluate four alternative representation models. These models comprise (I) complete representation of all members of the European Parliament (MEPs), (II) insider representation through the creation of new, regime-specific assemblies, and (III) partial representation without and (IV) with inclusive deliberative stages. We find that the current system of complete representation, while honouring the principle of equality, violates autonomy and accountability in areas of differentiated integration. We therefore advocate a model of partial representation: MEPs elected in opt-out states should not take part in EP voting but should be invited to participate in the deliberative stages of parliamentary decision-making. This reconciles the principles of autonomy, accountability and equality, at least as long as there is no truly European electoral system in place.
One year after the birth of an unprecedented government characterised by the strong populist stance of both coalition partners (M5S and the Lega) and amid a growing polarisation in party positions on ...a number of political issues, the European and regional elections of 2019-20 marked an important test for Italy. After presenting the results of the 2019-20 election cycle, the article investigates the most salient lines of party competition and the varying degrees of polarisation. Our analysis shows two kinds of polarisation: the first being the intra-coalitional polarisation which characterised the first Conte government; while the second, affecting the party system as a whole, is driven by the electoral rise of far-right parties.
While most research has analysed election-orderness by looking at electoral behaviour, this article looks instead at political parties and political programs in the case of the Spanish 2019 European ...elections. With the collapse of its two-party system and challenger parties on the rise, this paper analyses how Spanish parties addressed topics in their political programs, using content and political discourse analysis. The article argues that the traditional classification of first and second-order elections is no longer well-equipped to depict the increasingly politicised and Europeanised political parties. This finding indicates a new way of addressing topics in Spain, a ‘twilight-zone’.
Focusing on the 2019 European Parliament campaign, we investigate parties' engagement in negative campaigning on Facebook and the relationship to a parties' ideology and their status as governing ...versus opposition party at the national level. Manual coding of 8,153 Facebook posts of parties from twelve European countries shows parties create less negative posts than positive and neutral ones. However, these negative posts attract more shares than positive, neutral, and balanced statements, which increases their prominence on the platform. Hence, users and algorithms create a negative campaign environment on Facebook to a greater extent than parties.
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