In the article a virus transmission model is constructed on a simplified social network. The social network consists of more than 2 million nodes, each representing an inhabitant of Slovenia. The ...nodes are organised and interconnected according to the real household and elderly-care center distribution, while their connections outside these clusters are semi-randomly distributed and undirected. The virus spread model is coupled to the disease progression model. The ensemble approach with the perturbed transmission and disease parameters is used to quantify the ensemble spread, a proxy for the forecast uncertainty. The presented ongoing forecasts of COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia are compared with the collected Slovenian data. Results show that at the end of the first epidemic wave, the infection was twice more likely to transmit within households/elderly care centers than outside them. We use an ensemble of simulations (N = 1000) and data assimilation approach to estimate the COVID-19 forecast uncertainty and to inversely obtain posterior distributions of model parameters. We found that in the uncontrolled epidemic, the intrinsic uncertainty mostly originates from the uncertainty of the virus biology, i.e. its reproduction number. In the controlled epidemic with low ratio of infected population, the randomness of the social network becomes the major source of forecast uncertainty, particularly for the short-range forecasts. Virus transmission models with accurate social network models are thus essential for improving epidemics forecasting.
•A random forest algorithm was applied for modelling basal area increment (BAI).•The R2 for independent data varied from 0.57 (silver fir) to 0.29 (Scots pine).•The most important predictor variables ...were the basal area of trees and competition.•The highest growth potential was modelled for Norway spruce and silver fir.•High competitive potential was shown by common beech.
Here, we present one of the first attempts to use a machine learning model for the prediction and interpretation of tree basal area increment (BAI) based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI). The developed model is based on the random forest (RF) algorithm, trained with 18 independent variables and 15,580 data points (trees from the Slovenian NFI). The RF model was trained for four individual species and two groups of species and evaluated using 10-fold blocked cross-validation. Squared correlation coefficients calculated for independent data ranged from 0.289 for Scots pine (Pinus Sylvestris) to 0.342 for maple and ash species (Acer sp. and Fraxinus sp.), 0.429 for oak species (Quercus sp.), 0.475 for Norway spruce (Picea abies), 0.486 for common beech (Fagus sylvatica), and 0.565 for silver fir (Abies alba). The most important predictor variables were the basal areas of individual trees and their competition status, expressed as the basal area in larger trees and tree social position. Simulations of selected key variables revealed different ecological traits of the studied species: silver fir and Norway spruce have the highest growth characteristics, while common beech has the strongest competition potential. For valuable broadleaves and silver fir, site specific conditions play an important role in tree growth, while oaks and Scots pine have less site-specific demands and wider ecological amplitudes. Finally, in comparison to BAI models from similar studies, the presented RF model showed similar accuracy and could potentially be used as a tool in forest management practices and for making professionally informed decisions.
Severe global climate change led to the deterioration of environmental conditions in the oceans during the Toarcian Stage of the Jurassic. Carbonate platforms of the Western Tethys Ocean exposed in ...Alpine Tethyan mountain ranges today offer insight into this period of environmental upheaval. In addition to informing understanding of climate change in deep time, the effect of ancient carbon cycle perturbations on carbonate platforms has important implications for anthropogenic climate change; the patterns of early Toarcian environmental deterioration are similar to those occurring in modern oceans. This study focuses on the record of the early Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (ca 183.1 Ma) in outcrops of the north‐west Adriatic Carbonate Platform in Slovenia. Amidst environmental deterioration, the north‐west Adriatic Platform abruptly transitioned from a healthy, shallow‐water environment with diverse metazoan ecosystems to a partially drowned setting with low diversity biota and diminished sedimentation. An organic carbon‐isotope excursion of −2.2‰ reflects the massive injection of CO2 into the ocean‐atmosphere system and marks the stratigraphic position of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. A prominent dissolution horizon and suppressed carbonate deposition on the platform are interpreted to reflect transient shoaling of the carbonate compensation depth to unprecedentedly shallow levels as the dramatic influx of CO2 overwhelmed the ocean’s buffering capacity, causing ocean acidification. Trace metal geochemistry and palaeoecology highlight water column deoxygenation, including the development of photic‐zone anoxia, preceding and during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. Ocean acidification and reduced oxygen levels likely had a profoundly negative effect on carbonate‐producing biota and growth of the Adriatic Platform. These effects are consistent with the approximate doubling of the concentration of CO2 in the ocean‐atmosphere system from pre‐event levels, which has previously been linked to a volcanic triggering mechanism. Mercury enrichments discovered in this study support a temporal and genetic link between volcanism, the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event and the carbonate crisis.
We present a map that correlates tectonic units between Alps and western Turkey accompanied by a text providing access to literature data, explaining the concepts used for defining the mapped ...tectonic units, and first-order paleogeographic inferences. Along-strike similarities and differences of the Alpine-Eastern Mediterranean orogenic system are discussed. The map allows (1) for superimposing additional information, such as e.g., post-tectonic sedimentary basins, manifestations of magmatic activity, onto a coherent tectonic framework and (2) for outlining the major features of the Alpine-Eastern Mediterranean orogen. Dinarides-Hellenides, Anatolides and Taurides are orogens of opposite subduction polarity and direction of major transport with respect to Alps and Carpathians, and polarity switches across the Mid-Hungarian fault zone. The Dinarides-Hellenides-Taurides (and Apennines) consist of nappes detached from the Greater Adriatic continental margin during Cretaceous and Cenozoic orogeny. Internal units form composite nappes that passively carry ophiolites obducted in the latest Jurassic–earliest Cretaceous or during the Late Cretaceous on top of the Greater Adriatic margin successions. The ophiolites on top of composite nappes do not represent oceanic sutures zones, but root in the suture zones of Neotethys that formed after obduction. Suturing between Greater Adria and the northern and eastern Neotethys margin occupied by the Tisza and Dacia mega-units and the Pontides occurred in the latest Cretaceous along the Sava-İzmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture zones. The Rhodopian orogen is interpreted as a deep-crustal nappe stack formed in tandem with the Carpatho-Balkanides fold-thrust belt, now exposed in a giant core complex exhumed in late Eocene to Miocene times from below the Carpatho-Balkan orogen and the Circum-Rhodope unit. Its tectonic position is similar to that of the Sakarya unit of the Pontides. We infer that the Rhodope nappe stack formed due to north-directed thrusting. Both Rhodopes and Pontides are suspected to preserve the westernmost relics of the suture zone of Paleotethys.
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•Tectonic map correlates tectonic units between Alps and western Turkey.•Profiles visualize architecture of Alpine-eastern Mediterranean orogens.•Review provides overview of Alpine-type orogens across national boundaries.
The present moment raises many questions about the workings and resilience of parliamentary democracy in Western-type democracies, including the former socialist states of the East Central European ...region, where various forms of populism and illiberal democracy are taking shape. Among these, Slovenia is taken as a case study, since it is not only a former socialist state, but was also for a long time acknowledged as a post-socialist success story. Focusing on the central state institution in systems of parliamentary democracy, i.e. the parliament, and its members (MPs) this paper considers speech as performed during parliamentary sessions by MPs from populist and non-populist political parties between the years 1992 and 2018, the period of a fully democratic Slovene national parliament. It combines the methodological approaches of cultural history with corpus linguistics in order to map any possible differences in populist and non-populist discourse of MPs. Special attention is given to situations where MPs mentioned the public, thus testing the hypothesis that populist MPs engage more with the public as a part of their populist political style.
In this work, an unprecedented comparison is made between recognising religious truths and observing religious practices among Muslims and Roman Catholics in Slovenia. Based on the results, the ...author establishes a link to the identity of the representatives of the religions in question and thus attempts to explain whether the phenomenon of Islamophobia is justified or not.
U ovom radu napravljena je jedinstvena usporedba između prihvaćanja religijskih istina i obdržavanja religijskih praksi kod muslimana i rimokatolika u Sloveniji. Na temelju dobivenih rezultata autor čini poveznicu s pitanjem identiteta predstavnika ovih religija i na taj način pokušava objasniti je li pojava islamofobije u Sloveniji opravdana ili nije.
In this article, we investigate the potential for detection and characterization of sinkholes under dense forest cover by using airborne laser scanning data. Laser pulse returns from the ground ...provide important data for the estimation of digital elevation model (DEM), which can be used for further processing. The main objectives of this study were to map and determine the geomorphometric characteristics of a large number of sinkholes and to investigate the correlations between geomorphology and vegetation in areas with such characteristics. The selected study area has very low anthropogenic influences and is particularly suitable for studying undisturbed karst sinkholes. The information extracted from this study regarding the shapes and depths of sinkholes show significant directionality for both orientation of sinkholes and their distribution over the area. Furthermore, significant differences in vegetation diversity and composition occur inside and outside the sinkholes, which indicates their presence has important ecological impacts.
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