From 2012 on, all CO
2 emissions from flights departing from or arriving at airports within the European Union have to be offset. We analyze the economic and ecological impacts that are caused by an ...inclusion of the aviation industry into the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS). Building on the now fixed system design we employ a simulation model to estimate the impacts of the scheme. Our results indicate that financial impacts are highly dependant on external settings, such as allowance prices and demand growth. We show that the financial burden on the aviation industry will be rather modest in the first years after the introduction of the system and therefore induce only low competition distortions. Likewise, emission reductions within air transportation will be comparably low. While aviation will induce a decline of emissions in other sectors, significant absolute reductions within air transportation can only be reached by a more restrictive system design.
This paper assesses government support measures to the air transport sector following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic from two points of view. First, it explores the ...factors that shape governments’ willingness to support airlines. This is followed by a discussion on the various types of support that may be provided and how country-specific parameters influence the choice of measures. Second, it analyses the implications of government support in three dimensions relevant to air transport policy: competition and liberalisation, airline ownership and control, and environmental sustainability. The analysis suggests that most governments give a high priority to maintaining air transport connectivity in order to protect economic activity and jobs, in aviation itself and in related sectors such as tourism. The trade-off between ensuring connectivity and maintaining competition after the COVID-19 pandemic is a challenge with several political and economic dimensions. The re-orientation of public policy in the aftermath of the pandemic may limit the relative importance of the policy priorities that shaped the evolution of the air transport sector before the crisis, especially those related to climate change and the environment. The role of government and public authorities at all levels – especially the type and duration of measures affecting transport operations – will be crucial for the future development of the aviation industry.
•Support to airlines and their implications on competition, liberalisation, airline ownership, & sustainability is analysed.•A country’s willingness to support airlines and its magnitude corelate with revenue loss and dependence on international market.•It also depends on the number of domestic airlines and their employees, GDP, and airline ownership structure.•While government support has been large, it has been uneven which might distort the playing field in the future.•The market share of the main national airlines will probably become even higher, since smaller players may exit the market.•If it can be a lever to introduce stringent environmental goals, a larger government ownership can be positive.
► Compare the characteristics of China’s air transport network with other countries such as the US. ► Centrality and socio-economic indicators of cities are highly correlated with each other. ► ...China’s air transport network displays some small-world network properties, and sub-networks in the air transport network of China are less developed.
This paper uses a complex network approach to examine the network structure and nodal centrality of individual cities in the air transport network of China (ATNC). Measures for overall network structure include degree distribution, average path length and clustering coefficient. Centrality metrics for individual cities are degree, closeness and betweenness, representing a node’s location advantage as being directly connected to others, being accessible to others, and being the intermediary between others, respectively. Results indicate that the ATNC has a cumulative degree distribution captured by an exponential function, and displays some
small-world (SW) network properties with an average path length of 2.23 and a clustering coefficient of 0.69. All three centrality indices are highly correlated with socio-economic indicators of cities such as air passenger volume, population, and gross regional domestic product (GRDP). This confirms that centrality captures a crucial aspect of location advantage in the ATNC and has important implications in shaping the spatial pattern of economic activities. Most small and low-degree airports are directly connected to the largest cities with the best centrality and bypass their regional centers, and therefore sub-networks in the ATNC are less developed except for Kunming in the southwest and Urumchi in the northwest because of their strategic locations for geographic and political reasons. The ANTC is relatively young, and not as efficient and well-developed as that of the US.
This paper estimates the relationship between the strength of economic shocks and temporal recovery in the world air transport industry. Our results show that world recovery of passenger demand to ...pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated to take 2.4 years (recovery by late-2022), with the most optimistic estimate being 2 years (recovery by mid-2022), and the most pessimistic estimate 6 years (recovery in 2026). Large regional differences are detected, Asia Pacific has the shortest estimated average recovery time 2.2 years, followed by North America 2.5 years and Europe 2.7 years. For air freight the results show a shorter average world recovery time of 2.2 years compared to passenger demand. At the regional level, Europe and Asia Pacific are comparable with average recovery times of 2.2 years while North America is predicted to recover faster in 1.5 years. The results show that the strength of economic shocks of various origins impacts the linear growth of passenger and freight traffic and the temporal recovery of the industry in a predictable transitory way. Hence, the impact of the COVID-19 recession will represent a temporary, although long-lasting, correction to previous growth levels.
•We estimate relationship between economic shocks and recovery in air transport.•World recovery of passenger demand to pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated to take 2.4 years.•Asia pacific has the shortest estimated average recovery time of 2.2 years.•Air freight in Europe and Asia Pacific have average recovery times of 2.2 years while North Americarecovers faster or in 1.5 years.•The recession will represent a temporary correction to previous growth levels.
Factors such as inclement weather or manmade destruction greatly impact the traffic efficiency of the whole air transport network. As China’s air transport network (CATN) becomes a large network ...system, understanding how it will be affected by unexpected events becomes increasingly important. We investigated the robustness of CATN over 40 years due to random failures and targeted attacks, from not only a topological but also a spatiotemporal viewpoint. When subjected to random failures, CATN shows enhanced robustness with more than 80% of airports being required to fail for network paralysis. When subjected to targeted attacks, CATN’s robustness is dominated by 20% of airports. Western parts of CATN are always more vulnerable than the eastern parts, and most long-distance routes fail while short-distance routes are less affected by early attacks. We defined the subnetwork comprising 20% of airports as the trunk network of CATN according to the attacks based on betweenness centrality, which is found to be the most effective way to cause a collapse comparing with attacks based on degree and closeness centrality.
•The impact of airport failures on China air transport network over 40 years are assessed.•80% of airports fail or 20% of airports attacked can lead to the paralysis of China air transport network.•The spatial fragmental process of China air transport network under simulated attacks is presented.•Trunk networks of China air transport are extracted from the view of robustness.
When 2020 began, we had no idea what was to unfold globally as we learnt about the Novel-Coronavirus in Wuhan, in the Hubei province of China. As this virus spread rapidly, it became a matter of time ...before many countries began to implement measures to try and contain the spread of the disease. COVID-19 as it is referred to, resulted in two main approaches to fighting the viral pandemic, either through a progressive set of measures to slow down the number of identified cases designed to ‘flatten the curve’ over time (anticipated to be at least six months), or to attack it by the severest of measures including a total lock-down and/or herding exposure to fast track ‘immunisation’ while we await a vaccine. The paper reports the findings from the first phase of an ongoing survey designed to identify the changing patterns in travel activity of Australian residents as a result of the stage 2 restrictions imposed by the Australian government. The main restrictions, in addition to social distancing of at least 1.5 m, are closure of entry to Australia (except residents returning), and closure of non-essential venues such as night clubs, restaurants, mass attendee sporting events, churches, weddings, and all social gatherings in any circumstance. With some employers encouraging working from home and others requiring it, in addition to job losses, and many children attending school online from home, the implications on travel activity is extreme. We identify the initial impacts associated with the first month of stricter social distancing measures introduced in Australia.
•General support for the actions of government and business.•Widespread suppression of travel demand for all trip purposes across all modes.•Sizeable shift to working from home by those who can.•Public transport will face the largest hurdles in regaining confidence.•Retail and food logistics will need to examine distribution processes•The aviation sector will likely need to restart with a heavy focus on domestic travel.•Public transport will need to take overt measures to restore confidence.•The dominance of the car is further enforced in the context of biosecurity concerns.•Active transport is a viable option for short inner-city trips.•Infrastructure investment should be carefully considered.•Flexible working arrangements are perhaps the biggest policy lever available to governments.
The international air transport network is pivotal in the global propagation of emerging infectious diseases. Gaining insights into the nuances of this transmission mechanism can pave the way for ...more strategic and effective interventions. While previous studies have delved into the subject, an integrated spatial and temporal modeling framework, specifically tailored to distinct phases of COVID-19 and its variants, has yet to be fully explored. This research aims to address this gap by exploring the spatial and temporal impacts of the air transport network on the spread of COVID-19 and its Omicron variant. We introduce an improved effective distance metric to assess the spatial correlation between various distance metrics and the onset of infectious diseases in selected nations. Subsequently, we employ a network-based heterogeneous susceptible-unreported infectious-confirmed-recovered-death (SUCRD) mathematical model to delineate the temporal evolution of infections by country. Our findings underscore the air transport network’s instrumental role in the pandemic’s spatial dynamics. Moreover, our model has been validated, demonstrating robustness and reliability. Through rigorous validation and simulation experiments, we discern the significance of the timing and intensity of interventions in shaping the pandemic’s trajectory. Notably, while the air transport network exerts a profound influence during the phases of both COVID-19 and Omicron, international travel restrictions exhibit diminishing returns once the disease achieves widespread prevalence. Through comparative analysis and discussion, we highlight the advantages of our experimental outcomes and methodological approach compared to previous studies. Based on our findings, we identify six key policy implications that offer critical perspectives for aviation stakeholders. This study illuminates the role of the air transport network in affecting the spatial accessibility and temporal dynamics of pandemic transmission, thereby providing valuable insights for informed policy-making in the aviation sector.
•Integrating a framework for spatial access and pandemic dynamics.•Analyzing early COVID-19 and Omicron variant scenarios.•Validating the model with extensive simulations.•Demonstrating travel ban limits in widespread pandemic stages.•Offering insights for targeted pandemic interventions.
In addition to being the world's largest economy, the United States (US) has been the foremost driver of consumer spending, free trade and open skies policies. Trade-driven economic growth and air ...freight markets have been commonly linked in air transport research. Despite increased security after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, international air imports to the US has continued to grow at a rate faster than consumer spending.
This paper aims to evaluate whether gravity models are robust enough to forecast and accurately account for substantial economic shocks such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Our research suggests that US demand for air freight is highly sensitive to transport costs, competition from sea freight and consumer spending patterns of perishable, low value and high value commodities across the 19 commodity groups examined, rather than manufacturing income or factors associated with product origin, which is all the more interesting in the context of the recent protectionist rhetoric of the US administration.
•Developing gravity models for forecasting air cargo demand.•Fitness of model for short to medium term planning.•Combination of commodity and regional analysis.•Our models accurately account for external shocks such as the GFC.•US air cargo demand highly sensitive to consumer spending.
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