Mitigation pathways play a vital role in realizing carbon neutrality. However, the complex relationships within the social system remain unclear, particularly the economic and energy effects on a ...macroeconomic level and the critical sectors. This study assesses the economic cost and energy transition effects of different policy scenarios based on an improved dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that (1) energy structure optimization (E2) and integrated policy scenarios could achieve the carbon neutrality target. In addition, carbon sink is another critical factor that can offset the remaining emissions. (2) Projected GDP losses in 2060 fluctuate from 0.7% in the carbon trading scenario (C1) to 4.92% in E2. Energy structure optimization and energy technology scenarios exert greater impacts on the power and iron and steel sectors. (3) The energy structure optimization scenario (high renewable HR: 9.23 billion tce) has the most significant impact on energy consumption, whereas the energy technology policy scenario (E2: 9.48 billion tce) has the smallest effect on energy consumption. (4) One integrated policy scenario (HRC4E2: 7.1 × 104 tons) has the most prominent air pollutant reduction potential, followed by LRC2E2 (25.0 × 104 tons) and HRC3E1 (10.1 × 104 tons).
•An improved CGE model framework was developed.•Analyze economic cost, energy transition and pollutant effect towards carbon neutrality.•The integrated policy scenarios are crucial in achieving carbon neutrality.•The CCS technology helps long-term CO2 emissions reduction in China.
Fasciolosis is an important plant borne trematode zoonosis in ruminants caused by the Fasciola hepatica and Fasciola gigentica, It is classified as a neglected tropical disease and found in more than ...50 countries especially where sheep and cattle are reared. Fasciolosis is a serious animal health problems in many rural and urban areas of world, causing significant financial losses due to decrease in production and viscera condemnation in animals. Accurate diagnosis of fasciolosis is always remained a challenging task for the field practitioners. There is no comprehensive summary on the occurrence and distribution of the infection at international level. Therefore, we intended to provide a complete overview on the prevalence and epidemiology of fasciolosis in farm animals from a global prospective. It includes to map the global distribution of fasciolosis in different areas of the world to identify the endemic regions which may be a source of potential disease outbreak. The financial liability related to fasciolosis on the livestock production has also been addressed. For this purpose, the published data during 2000–2015 (15 years) on fasciolosis was reviewed and collected by electronic literature search of four databases including Google, PubMed, Science Direct, and Web of Science. Data presented are contemplated to enhance our current understanding of the parasite's geographical distribution, host range, and economic losses. Information provided would be useful for the application of more effective control strategies against fasciolosis in different geo-economics regions of the world.
•Fasciolosis is an important plant borne trematode zoonosis in ruminants caused by Fasciola hepatica and Fasciola gigentica.•Published data (2000–2015) on fasciolosis was reviewed to check epidemiology, global prevalence & economic losses in ruminants.•It is a widespread disease in ruminants round the world and causes huge financial losses to butchers, farmers and consumers.•Countries with higher prevalence are a potential source of disease transmission & are threat for possible future outbreaks.•The countries with higher prevalence require to follow proper control of intermediate host & strategic therapeutic treatment.
Quantitative assessment of economic losses from disasters can benefit government decision-making as well as mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, we identified significant rainstorm events in ...China in 2021 using an objective identification method and investigated the direct economic losses (DELs) from each event. Then, a loss assessment model was developed to estimate the indirect economic losses (IDELs) from rainstorm events. We found that, in 2021, China experienced 36 major rainstorm events, causing approximately 179.8 billion yuan in DELs. The north of China was severely affected by rainstorms and floods, with Henan, Hebei and Shaanxi being the main loss centers. The assessment of IDELs based on rainstorm events showed a non-linear relationship between direct and indirect losses. The socio-economic impact of the 2021 Henan flood (Event No. 15) was the most serious, with direct and indirect losses of 125.8 billion yuan and 269.1 billion yuan, respectively. The primary industry in Henan was seriously affected, and the impact also spread to Inner Mongolia and Guangdong, causing indirect losses of 23.9 billion and 13.1 billion yuan, respectively. We recommend that the indirect losses resulting from such interregional trade linkages should be considered in catastrophe risk management. Finally, the sensitivity analysis showed that moderate overproduction can reduce the indirect impacts caused by disasters. A more detailed study is required to explore how to determine the appropriate levels of disaster relief, as well as a rational funding allocation mechanism.
The number of earthquakes with high damage and high losses has been limited to around 100 events since 1900. Looking at historical losses from 1900 onward, we see that around 100 key earthquakes (or ...around 1% of damaging earthquakes) have caused around 93% of fatalities globally. What is indeed interesting about this statistic is that within these events, secondary effects have played a major role, causing around 40% of economic losses and fatalities as compared to shaking effects. Disaggregation of secondary effect economic losses and fatalities demonstrating the relative influence of historical losses from direct earthquake shaking in comparison to tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction, fault rupture, and other type losses is important if we are to understand the key causes post-earthquake. The trends and major event impacts of secondary effects are explored in terms of their historic impact as well as looking to improved ways to disaggregate them through two case studies of the Tohoku 2011 event for earthquake, tsunami, liquefaction, fire, and the nuclear impact; as well as the Chilean 1960 earthquake and tsunami event.
A fractional-order SIS (Susceptible–Infectious–Susceptible) model with time-dependent coefficients is used to analyse some effects of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). This generalized model is ...suitable for describing the COVID dynamics since it does not presume permanent immunity after contagion. The fractional derivative activates the memory property of the dynamics of the susceptible and infectious population time series. A coefficient identification inverse problem is posed, which consists of reconstructing the time-varying transmission and recovery rates, which are of paramount importance in practice for both medics and politicians.
The inverse problem is reduced to a minimization problem, which is solved in a least squares sense. The iterative predictor–corrector algorithm reconstructs the time-dependent parameters in a piecewise-linear fashion. The economic losses emerging from social distancing using the calibrated model are also discussed. A comparison between the results obtained by the classical model and the fractional-order model is included, which is validated by ample tests with synthetic and real data.
•Mathematical modelling of the coronavirus pandemic.•Memory effect via fractional-order derivatives.•Estimation of the economic impact of the pandemic and non-pharmaceutical measures.•Fast and robust algorithm applicable in real-world scenario.
Haze is a serious air pollution problem in China, especially in Beijing and surrounding areas, affecting visibility, public health and regional climate. In this study, the Weather Research and ...Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was used to simulate PM2.5 (particulate matters with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm) concentrations during the 2013 severe haze event in Beijing, and health impacts and health-related economic losses were calculated based on model results. Compared with surface monitoring data, the model results reflected pollution concentrations accurately (correlation coefficients between simulated and measured PM2.5 were 0.7, 0.4, 0.5 and 0.6 in Beijing, Tianjin, Xianghe and Xinglong stations, respectively). Health impacts assessments show that the PM2.5 concentrations in January might cause 690 (95% confidence interval (CI): (490, 890)) premature deaths, 45,350 (95% CI: (21,640, 57,860)) acute bronchitis and 23,720 (95% CI: (17,090, 29,710)) asthma cases in Beijing area. Results of the economic losses assessments suggest that the haze in January 2013 might lead to 253.8 (95% CI: (170.2, 331.2)) million US$ losses, accounting for 0.08% (95% CI: (0.05%, 0.1%)) of the total 2013 annual gross domestic product (GDP) of Beijing.
•Health impacts of the 2013 Beijing haze event are estimated.•Health-related economic losses are also calculated.•The PM2.5 concentrations in January 2013 might cause 690 deaths.•This haze event might lead to 253.8 million US$ losses.
Abstract
We leverage a granular representation of mobility patterns before and during the first wave of SARS-COV2 in Italy to investigate the economic consequences of various forms of lockdown ...policies when accounting for mobility restrictions between and within local jurisdictions, i.e. municipalities, provinces and regions. We provide an analytical characterization of the rate of economic losses using a network-based spectral method. The latter treats the spread of contagion of economic losses due to commuting restrictions as a dynamical system stability problem. Our results indicate that the interplay between lower level of smartworking and the polarization of commuting flows to fewer local labor hubs in the South of Italy makes Southern territories extremely important in spreading economic losses. We estimate an economic contraction of total income derived from commuting restrictions in the range of 10–30% depending on the economic assumptions. However, alternative policies proposed during the second wave of SARS-COV2 can pose a greater risk to Northern areas due to their higher degree of mobility between jurisdictions than Southern ones. The direction of economic losses tend to propagate from large to medium-small jurisdictions across all alternative lockdown policies we tested. Our study shows how complex mobility patterns can have unequal consequences to economic losses across the country and call for more tailored implementation of restrictions to balance the containment of contagion with the need to sustain economic output.
Port based transportations are key elements governing the operation of global maritime logistics. In China, the southeast coastline suffers from typhoons frequently every year and causes many ...disruptions to port operations and thus economic losses. Quantitative evaluation of coastal ports' economic losses induced by typhoons is quite demanding and can serve as guidance for port operation planning and disaster prevention. In this paper, a framework based on a hybrid wind numerical model for assessing the direct and indirect economic losses of coastline caused by typhoon-induced extreme wind is proposed. The estimation of port disruptions and their durations is realized based on the typhoon hybrid wind numerical model. For the direct economic losses, this model considers losses to the port based on the loading/unloading operations of containers. The disruption days and economic losses of 31 ports along China's coastline are selected. These include ports from the Bohai Rim Port Cluster, Yangtze River Delta Port Cluster, Southeastern Coastal Port Cluster, Pearl River Delta Port Cluster, and Southwestern Coastal Port Cluster. The analysis takes the record of typhoons from 2006 to 2020 for this investigation. The influence of time-varying variables on economic losses, such as economic growth rate, has been considered. For the indirect economic losses, the input-output models of 11 different provinces (or municipalities) are employed to analyze each sector. Features of adopting a climate model in the economic evaluations are discussed.
The Chinese government has announced ambitious carbon reduction goals to address climate change, however, there has been limited scientific attention to the achievement of deep decarbonization in ...regions with insufficient economic development. Moreover, the complex impacts of climate change mitigation on energy system, environment and economic development remain unclear in Northwest China. Here we construct a comprehensive evaluation model system to evaluate the effects of different climate mitigation pathways in Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu and Xinjiang provinces. Results show that the four provinces need to vigorously increase the share of electricity that consumed in final energy to 53.1–60.0% and 52.9–62.0% for 2 °C and 1.5 °C target, respectively, and reduce total energy demand to 11.6–44.4 Mtoe and 8.2–34.1 Mtoe in 2050. Meanwhile, the CO2 emissions for their energy systems will reach peak by 2025 at lower values. Moreover, the synergies of CO2 reduction are most conducive to abating SO2 pollution and also contributing to decreasing PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, the GDP losses in 2050 fluctuate from 5.0 to 21.7 billion USD in the 2 °C scenario to 11.5–52.7 billion USD in the 1.5 °C scenario. Our study provides practical guidance on achieving carbon reductions in less developed regions of China and lays foundations to promote decarbonization of energy systems in other provinces.
•Realizing climate goals requires low-carbon energy systems led by electricity.•Energy-related carbon emissions in Northwest China will peak by 2025.•More ambitious climate and clean air policies are needed for air quality improvement.•Economic loss shows an upward trend in the future under climate targets.
Purpose. Based on the author’s materials, to carry out a preliminary assessment of ecological and economic losses caused to the fisheries complex of the Kharkiv region as a result of military ...actions. Methodology. Field studies on water bodies of the Kharkiv Region, which were affected by military actions, were conducted. Public data of the State Agency of Land Reclamation and Fisheries of Ukraine in the Kharkiv Region (2021–2023) were used. The following research methods were used during the assessment of the ecological consequences and economic losses caused to the aquatic biological resources of water bodies of the Kharkiv region: analytical – collection of information from official sources of enterprises and institutions carrying out economic activities, control and monitoring of water bodies; geoinformation – assessment of the actual hydrological regime of water bodies; identification of the spatial location, measurement of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of water areas formed after the reservoirs drying-up; hydrobiological – determination of fish species and other hydrobiont composition; statistical – for qualitative and quantitative assessment of commercial ichthyofauna and the economic damage inflicted to the fishery; forecast –assessment of the potential transformation of the species biodiversity of the ecosystem in time under different conditions of further development of the water sector of Ukraine. Findings. The impact of military actions on the conditions of existence of aquatic biological resources in the Oskil and Pechenegi reservoirs, on the functioning of special commercial fish farms, the production of aquaculture products, and the development of industrial and recreational fishing in the region has been preliminarily assessed. The calculation of economic losses for aquatic bioresources of water bodies of the Kharkiv region was carried out. Originality. For the first time, a preliminary assessment of losses for the fisheries industry (including commercial, recreational fishing, aquaculture) of the Kharkiv region due to military actions was carried out. Practical value. The obtained results have important and multifaceted practical value, in particular they can be used for: assessment of environmental damage caused to Ukraine as a result of military actions; rational management of water and fisheries management due to restoration of water ecosystems exposed to military impact; development of recommendations on restoration of ecosystem services; spread of social awareness about the post-war environmental challenges of the future; making decisions about investments in natural resources and the use of ecosystem services.
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