Black carbon (BC) exposure in China continues to be relatively high, prompting researchers to assess BC exposure levels using data from monitoring sites, satellite remote sensing, and models. ...However, data regarding the application of a combined strategy comprising the analysis of monitoring data and various types of data to simulate BC exposure levels are lacking. Hence, the current study seeks to estimate short- and long-term BC exposure levels by combining national monitoring data with data from the second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2). Furthermore, this study attempts to improve the spatio-temporal resolution of BC exposure levels using Bayesian maximum entropy (BME). The BME model performed well in terms of estimating short- (R2 = 0.74 and RMSE = 1.76 μg/m3) and long-term (R2 = 0.76 and RMSE = 1.3 μg/m3) exposure. Premature mortalities and economic losses were also assessed by applying localised concentration–response coefficients simulated in China. A total of 74,500 (95% confidence interval (CI): 23,900–124,500) and 538,400 (95% CI: 495,000–581,300) all-cause premature mortality cases were found to be associated with short- and long-term BC exposure, respectively. Meanwhile, short-term BC exposure was associated with economic losses ranging from 7.5 to 13.2 billion US dollars (USD) (1 USD = 6.36 RMB on January 19, 2022) based on amended human capital (AHC) and willingness to pay (WTP), accounting for 0.06%–0.1% of China's total gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017 (1.2 × 104 billion USD), respectively. The economic losses for long-term exposure varied from 53 to 93.2 billion USD based on AHC and WTP, accounting for 0.4%–0.8% of China's total GDP in 2017, respectively.
Display omitted
•Modelled black carbon (BC) exposure level was the highest in Sichuan Basin, China.•All-cause premature mortalities due to long-term BC exposure were 538,400 cases in 2017.•Economic losses due to BC exposure accounted for 0.8% of the 2017 GDP of China.
In developing countries, invasive alien species (IAS) threaten smallholder farmer production and the food security of subsistence growers, but economic impacts are widely under-reported. Here, the ...economic impacts of IAS that threaten smallholder mixed maize farming in eastern Africa are presented. Maize is important for most smallholders and is commonly grown with horticultural crops and other cereals which collectively provide nutrition and income. These crops are also important for national economies. Estimates of the economic impacts of five major IAS: Chilo partellus, Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease, Parthenium hysterophorus, Liriomyza spp. and Tuta absoluta on mixed maize smallholders in six countries gave current combined annual losses of US$0.9–1.1 billion; and future annual losses (next 5–10 years) of US$1.0–1.2 billion.
•Invasive alien species threaten smallholder production but economic impacts under-reported.•Economic impacts of 5 invasive alien species on smallholders in 6 African countries estimated.•Current annual economic losses from US$0.9 to 1.1 billion; near future losses US$1.0 to 1.2 billion.•Results confirm the growing threat to food security in the region.•Urgent need for coordinated response at regional, national and international levels.
Inter-provincial trade may cause transfer of air pollutants and associated health risks, leading to the issue of environmental inequality. Strengthened air pollution control in China over the past ...years has resulted in improvements in air quality and public health, while its effect in modulating the trade-associated environmental inequality is still unknown. Here we explore the impact of air pollution control on the trade-associated environmental inequality in China not only in terms of traditional emissions-based index, but also in terms of exposure-based index which is more related to health risks. Although the inter-provincial transfer of pollutant emissions were substantially reduced due to air pollution control, the emissions-based index implied that the imbalance of pollutant emissions and value added among the 31 provinces aggravated from 2012 to 2017 in China. Moreover, the exposure-based index suggested that air pollution control reduced the absolute and relative environmental inequality associated with human health risks due to inter-provincial transfer. The cost related to inter-provincial trade was about 5.46 premature deaths per 100 million RMB value added in 2012, which fell to 3.91 deaths in 2017. The average percentage of economic losses to value added of all transfers was 5% in 2012 and dropped to 3.6% in 2017. This study reflects inter-provincial trade-associated transfer and environmental inequality in a more refined and comprehensive way, with a view to providing a reference for inter-provincial economic cooperation and financial compensation.
Display omitted
•Exposure-based index is used to quantify environmental inequality on health risk.•Air pollution control reduced trade-associated transfers of pollutant emissions.•The imbalance of emissions and value added aggravated during 2012–2017 in China.•Air pollution control reduced environmental inequality associated with human health.
Parasitic and infectious diseases are common in finfish, but are difficult to accurately estimate the economic impacts on the production in a country with large dimensions like Brazil. The aim of ...this study was to estimate the costs caused by economic losses of finfish due to mortality by diseases in Brazil. A model for estimating the costs related to parasitic and bacterial diseases in farmed fish and an estimative of these economic impacts are presented. We used official data of production and mortality of finfish for rough estimation of economic losses. The losses herein presented are related to direct and indirect economic costs for freshwater farmed fish, which were estimated in US$ 84 million per year. Finally, it was possible to establish by the first time an estimative of overall losses in finfish production in Brazil using data available from production. Therefore, this current estimative must help researchers and policy makers to approximate the economic costs of diseases for fish farming industry, as well as for developing of public policies on the control measures of diseases and priority research lines.
•Losses of stiffer buildings resulted higher because of their higher seismic hazard.•Losses for the studied buildings are less than estimated for RC frame buildings.•Losses are mainly due to the ...cases of non-collapse.•Repair costs of partitions contributed the most to the total loss of the buildings.
This research paper evaluates the effect of lateral stiffness on expected economic losses in reinforced concrete shear wall buildings designed following current Chilean standards, including DS60 and DS61. Economic losses were evaluated for a group of four 20-story archetype buildings located in Santiago, Chile. The methodology developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center was considered to estimate economic losses. The expected annual loss (EAL) and the present value (PV) of the losses in 50 years were used as measures of economic loss. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which considered the seismicity of central Chile, was performed to estimate both metrics. The results show that when the lateral stiffness of the building increases, the EAL also increases. This implies that stiffer buildings are more vulnerable from an economic point of view. This counter-intuitive finding results from the higher seismic hazard of stiffer buildings and the minimum design base shear required by DS61 that governed the design of the studied buildings. Additionally, it was found that the EAL and the PV of losses in 50 years for the four archetypes do not exceed 0.3% and 7.8% of the total construction cost of the buildings, respectively. These monetary losses are relatively low, which is consistent with the outstanding seismic performance of reinforced concrete shear wall buildings.
•The monthly prevalence of CM varied greatly on large dairy farms across seven provinces from 2015 to 2017.•Enterobacteriaceae isolates were the most common mastitis-associated pathogens.•The ...economic losses attributed to CM varied widely among seven farms, which was most associated with the prevalence of CM.
This study investigated the continuous monthly prevalence of bovine clinical mastitis (CM) and the distribution of causative pathogens among 36,619 CM milk samples from large dairy farms across seven Chinese provinces from 2015 to 2017 using data from routine CM recording systems. Based on treatment period and cost per cow, withdrawal period, daily milk production, and milk value data from each farm in 2017, we calculated the economic impact of CM at the farm level with 2578–9044 lactating cows per farm. Results showed a wide variation in monthly prevalence of CM (0.6 %–18.2 %) among the seven farms over the study period, indicating regional and temporal differences in the occurrence of CM in China. Enterobacteriaceae were the predominant pathogens across all farms from six provinces except Shandong, in which the Streptococcus spp. was the most prevalent. However, the distribution of various Enterobacteriaceae species differed among farms, and Streptococcus species distribution was strongly associated (Pearson’s coefficient, 68.4 %) with location. Monthly economic losses associated with CM showed clear variation, ranging from 12,000–76,000 USD/farm/month. Sensitivity analysis showed that economic loss at the farm level was most sensitive to variation in the prevalence of CM, followed by antibiotic treatment period and daily milk production per cow. To our knowledge, this is the longest running study of CM and the first estimation of its economic impacts in China. Our findings highlight the considerable costs associated with mastitis, and indicate that preventive measures and regional and timely treatment of CM are needed.
Based on the National Disaster Management Agency, there was an increase in the total number of disasters from 2020 to 2022, which was initially 1,296 to 5402 disasters, with the highest percentage of ...disaster events being flood disasters with the highest frequency being in the West Java and DKI Jakarta areas (BNPB, 2022). The high frequency of floods that occur in the West Java region can certainly increase economic losses that are pretty high. On the other hand, West Java Province also contributes the third most significant national GDP. The sector that contributes the most to West Java's GRDP is the processing industry sector (BPS, 2017). Karawang Regency is one of West Java's destination areas for industrial development. In Karawang Regency, industrial areas are developing quite rapidly and are concentrated in the southern part of Karawang Regency (Telukjambe Barat, Telukjambe Timur, Ciampel, Pangkalan, Klari, and Cikampek districts). However, based on research conducted by the ITB Climate Change Center (2022), several points have a relatively high level of flood hazard in the area. That can bring considerable losses if the disaster occurs in an industrial area, so an analysis of losses due to flooding is needed at the location of the existing industrial site, which is currently in Karawang Regency. Therefore, this research was conducted to determine the condition of existing industrial land in flood-prone areas and to find predictions of economic losses that will be obtained in the event of a flood disaster on existing industrial land today. The research used secondary data in shapefiles (.shp) maps of Karawang Regency, planning documents, and related journals. Then, the analysis method that will be carried out is mapping disaster-prone areas in industrial estates and predicting economic losses due to flood disasters which will be carried out with a Geographic Information System (GIS). Based on the results of the analysis, it was found that 34.69% of the existing industrial land is located in flood-prone areas, which are predicted to impact the economic losses of IDR 65,049,705,681,272,-. That shows a need for a flood mitigation plan and the suitability of proper allocation of industrial estates to reduce the possibility of economic losses to be borne by the government.
Results of the study revealed that when dust impinged on the surface of the PV modules, monthly maximum power output of a 1.5 kWp system in Perth, Australia and a 50 Wp system in Nusa Tenggara Timur ...(NTT), Indonesia decreased, on average, by about 4.5% and 8%, respectively. Economic modelling showed that, the cost of production per kWh lost due to dust exhibited by these systems were A$ 0.26/kWh and A$ 0.15/kWh, respectively. Comparison of the cost of energy losses and maintenance revealed that, the Perth system would require manual cleaning in October while the system in NTT would require cleaning in August and October. Although the saving in production losses is not economically significant, this cleaning schedule was recommended, particularly for small systems in NTT since the extra output can have a significant effect on the quality of life in remote villages. The key finding was that higher dust de-rating factors and more cleaning activity may be more appropriate for PV systems deployed in tropical climate areas than that in temperate climate regions. It is recommended that PV system Standards that use the 5% performance de-rating factor due to soiling are reviewed and consideration given to climate-dependent de-rating factors.
•Energy losses of a 1.5 kWp in Perth, Australia and a 50 Wp in NTT, Indonesia were 113.54 and 7.11 kWh/year, respectively.•Time to perform a manual cleaning was in October for the system in Perth, while in August and October for the system in NTT.•A higher dust de-rating factor is required for PV systems deployed in tropical climate areas.
This paper presents and discusses the ongoing developments towards the definition of a multi-knowledge level seismic assessment procedure for large-scale seismic risk applications. The procedure ...involves the analytical-mechanical SLaMA (Simple Lateral Mechanism Analysis) method and allows for an adaptive and updatable assessment of the seismic performance of buildings accounting for different data acquisition (knowledge) levels. By coupling this approach with vulnerability assessment survey forms, a range/domain of expected capacity curves of a structure can be obtained and used to evaluate the seismic safety and the expected economic losses according to the state-of-the-art procedures in literature. Moreover, the results of the analytical assessment method can be used to develop fragility curves through simplified spectrum-based procedures. Combining the results of the fragility analysis with the hazard analysis, the seismic risk of a structure can be assessed in terms of Mean Annual Frequency (MAF) of collapse, as well as in terms of Expected Annual Losses (EAL). The proposed SLaMA-based approach is illustrated for an existing reinforced concrete building. Results confirm the effectiveness of the methodology for seismic-risk assessment studies at large scale, thus overcoming the issue related to limited building information, yet allowing for a continuous update of the “digital twin” model as further data/information becomes available.
PDF
