The Department of Civil Protection (DPC), in compliance with the EU decision 1313/2013 and at the request of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 to update the disaster risk ...assessments by various countries, released the latest National Risk Assessment for Italy at the end of 2018. Specifically, as regards the seismic risk assessment, six research units belonging to two centres of competence of the DPC collaborated under its guidance to update the risk maps of the Italian residential heritage. This extensive collaboration complied with the recent Italian code for Civil Protection, which requires a broad scientific consensus for risk assessment. During this research activity, six fragility models were developed, according to some common criteria (four for masonry buildings and two for RC buildings). These models were then implemented by the DPC for the definition of the national seismic risk. Within this context, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the risk results provided by these models, compare their features, and assess and validate their prediction capabilities. In particular, this paper shows the comparison of predicted and observed damage scenarios and consequences on building stock and the population of two seismic events, i.e. L’Aquila 2009 and Amatrice 2016. Furthermore, the paper provides some interesting damage and risk predictions at a national level. Overall, the forecasts and comparisons made in this study demonstrate the validity of the approach adopted by the DPC for the assessment of national seismic risk.
In this article, we propose an integrated direct and indirect flood risk model for small‐ and large‐scale flood events, allowing for dynamic modeling of total economic losses from a flood event to a ...full economic recovery. A novel approach is taken that translates direct losses of both capital and labor into production losses using the Cobb‐Douglas production function, aiming at improved consistency in loss accounting. The recovery of the economy is modeled using a hybrid input‐output model and applied to the port region of Rotterdam, using six different flood events (1/10 up to 1/10,000). This procedure allows gaining a better insight regarding the consequences of both high‐ and low‐probability floods. The results show that in terms of expected annual damage, direct losses remain more substantial relative to the indirect losses (approximately 50% larger), but for low‐probability events the indirect losses outweigh the direct losses. Furthermore, we explored parameter uncertainty using a global sensitivity analysis, and varied critical assumptions in the modeling framework related to, among others, flood duration and labor recovery, using a scenario approach. Our findings have two important implications for disaster modelers and practitioners. First, high‐probability events are qualitatively different from low‐probability events in terms of the scale of damages and full recovery period. Second, there are substantial differences in parameter influence between high‐probability and low‐probability flood modeling. These findings suggest that a detailed approach is required when assessing the flood risk for a specific region.
Disaster loss estimates are helpful for managing post-disaster reconstruction and for designing disaster-risk mitigation strategies. However, most of these estimates in China merely consider direct ...losses, and only a few include indirect economic losses. As the most destructive earthquake since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the Wenchuan Earthquake that occurred in 2008 resulted in direct economic damages reached Chinese Yuan (CNY) 845 billion (US $124 billion). The aim of the study was to estimate indirect economic losses caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province through the Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model, which can reflect disaster-related changes in production capacity, ripple effects within the economic system, and adaptive behaviors of economic actors. The results showed that indirect economic losses in the production and housing sectors were estimated at 40% of the direct economic losses, i.e., approximately CNY 300 billion; moreover, the model predicted an 8-year reconstruction period. Several factors contributed to these losses, including significant damages to key sectors, financial constraints on reconstruction, post-earthquake investment instability, and limits in reconstruction capacity. Active government support policies post-earthquake are a useful strategy to mitigate the adverse economic impact of an earthquake in developing countries.
The conflicting interactions between pinnipeds (seals, fur seals and sea lions) and fishing activities generate economic losses to the fishing industry by depredation of catch and damage to fishing ...gear. The latter in turn is an underreported problem for many species of pinnipeds that interact with fisheries. In this context, the present study aims to evidence gear damage caused by the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) during the depredation of catch, analyzing fishing items found in the stomachs of sea lions in southern Brazil. For this purpose, 46 stomachs of male South American sea lions found stranded on the southern coast of Brazil between 1993 and 2013 were analyzed. The fishing items found in the South American sea lion stomachs were identified and categorized. In 17.4% of the stomachs analyzed, fishing items were recorded. Gillnet fishing was the most representative item, being recorded in 15.2% of stomachs, followed by fishing lines (2.3%) and fishing hook with line (2.3%). The recorded items represented 79 fragments (gillnets = 88.6%, fishing line = 10% and fishing hook with line = 1.3%). The results also demonstrate an increase in the ingestion of fishing items by South American sea lions over time. The results presented here show that this type of interaction between the South American sea lion and the fishing industry, which has never been investigated in South America before, deserves more attention from researchers and fisheries managers. In this context, for a real understanding of the magnitude of the impact that South American sea lions can cause on fisheries, studies are urgently needed to estimate the impacts of these interactions, estimate the monetary costs of repairing fishing gear, and seek alternatives to minimize these problems. Still being important to mention that ingesting fishing items can cause injuring the digestive tract of sea lions, potentially causing the death of individuals or affecting animals by slower sublethal physical and chemical effects.
•Fishing items ingestion by Otaria flavescens were evaluated.•About 17% of stomachs contained fishing items.•About 88% of fishing items were from gillnets.•There has been an increase in the ingestion of fishing items over time.
The possibility of ground motions propagating at speeds greater than the Rayleigh wave speed was accepted not long ago, and thus studies on them are limited. These supershear motions are believed to ...damage specific kinds of infrastructure, and thus studying the risk associated is important. As a part of this investigation, we use state-of-the-art tools from the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure to estimate normalized economic losses and injuries, by considering one particular building type and occupancy category listed in HAZUS-MH. Faults of similar dimensions are shown to replicate subshear and supershear earthquake instances with four groups of station points parallel to the fault and four more perpendicular to the fault. Both fault parallel and fault normal components of ground motion are stimulated. The economic loss % and injury is standardized in metrics of repair cost and population respectively and is estimated along with the associated uncertainty for 3, 6 and 9-story commercial concrete moment frame structures. Inclusion of complex phenomena such as supershear earthquake events in evaluating economic losses and risk will contribute to the United Nation Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) vision of disaster-resilient development goals.
Worldwide, food waste is one of the prime issues threatening food security and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is not an exception. With 427 kg of food wasted per capita per year, the country ranks ...among the top food wasters. Ironically, the Kingdom has limited arable lands and scarce water resources to support mass-scale agriculture and to feed its increasing population, KSA relies heavily on imports and subsidized food to meet needs. Yet, food is wasted at restaurants, caterers, cafeterias and, especially, by households such that food waste is the single-largest component of the landfills. The review article is based on the grey and scientific literature published in the English and Arabic languages on the issue of food waste in Saudi Arabia. Information sources like Web of knowledge, online resources and the databases available through the King Saud University, Saudi Arabia were accessed and used to collect information on food waste, its social, cultural, economic and environmental impacts and related topics. Since food items and groceries are abundantly available to all living in KSA and they are highly subsidized, the residents take food for granted. According to a recent survey, about 78% of food purchased in KSA is discarded each week in order to make room for new groceries. The factors responsible for food waste include: lack of awareness; and insufficient and inappropriate planning when shopping. Food waste in restaurants, celebrations, social events and occasions are enormous. Waste is common in festivals and special events where the customs is to provide more food than required. There is a need to change society’s food culture, particularly among the women and the youth, as they are largest segment of the society and the prime food wasters. The analysis of the factors responsible for food waste, identified in this article suggests a “Stop Wasting Food” campaign should be launched. It is also recommended to determine and activate the role of extension education to reduce food waste in the KSA through vibrant capacity building programs for youth and women, in particular, and society in general.
This study quantified crop losses and economic impacts associated with papaya mealybug (Paracoccus marginatus) infestation in Kenya and identified the most important predictors of papaya tree (Carica ...papaya L.) yield losses through a household survey of 404 farmers. At least 95% male and 88% female respondents correctly identified papaya mealybug. Papaya was the most affected crop by the pest, with 73% of the respondents indicating that a major part (>60%) of their trees was affected. The estimated papaya yield losses due to papaya mealybug were 57%, with an associated annual economic loss of US$3,009 per ha at the farm level and US$29.8 million at the national level. Regression analysis showed significant yield-reducing effects with high infestation levels of papaya mealybug, use of local varieties, and use of indigenous pest control practices. Economic losses differed significantly by county, with the highest losses reported in Mombasa. Male farmers reported higher losses than their female counterparts. Findings highlight the need for location and gender-specific information on pest management for effectiveness in controlling papaya mealybug.
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