•Industrial demand-side flexibility holds unique potentials for system stability.•Hereby, it may be an engine for sustainable and inclusive industrial development.•We illustrate guidelines of a ...corresponding flexibility transition pathway.•We develop a first monitoring approach for a country’s flexibility transition.•Our monitoring approach indicates mis-developments and needed countermeasures.
In many countries, industry is one of the largest consumers of electricity. Given the special importance of electricity for industry, a reliable electricity supply is a basic prerequisite for further industrial development and associated economic growth. As countries worldwide transition to a low-carbon economy (in particular, by the development of renewable energy sources), the increasing fluctuation in renewable energy production requires new flexibility options within the electricity system in order to guarantee security of supply. It is advanced in this paper that such a flexibility transition with an active participation of industry in general has unique potential: It will not only promote green industrial development, but also become an engine for inclusive industrial development and growth as well as delivering a just transition to a low-carbon economy. Given the high potential of industrial demand-side flexibility, a first monitoring approach for such a flexibility transition is illustrated, which bases on a flexibility index. Our flexibility index allows for an indication of mis-developments and supports an appropriate implementation of countermeasures together with relevant stakeholders. Hence, it holds various insights for both policy-makers and practice with respect to how industrial demand-side flexibility can ensure advances towards an inclusive, just, and sustainable industrial development.
The European Green Deal has been heralded as the“Europe's man on the moon moment” as it aims to achieve 100% GHG reductions by 2050. Achieving the decarbonization of the energy system will be driven ...by a combination of factors and synergies between technological development, policy exertion and societal attitudes. In this paper, we present an original set of future storylines until the year 2050 to inspire modelers, policy makers, industry actors, and the public to understand: Without technological developments in the next decades, to what extent can we rely on societal commitment or stronger cooperation within the EU to achieve climate targets? What technological innovations could become a cornerstone of an effective European energy transition? Through analyzing four pathways (shaped by the crossroads of policy-technology-society developments), results indicate that high electrification rates are imminent to achieve a rapid decarbonization. This implies that technology development and deployment must go hand-in-hand with strong policy enforcement in the short-term to speed-up the energy transition. Then, based on a review of European energy transition scenarios, these and other insights are compared vis-à-vis with other scenarios studies to identify similarities of pathway results and to elaborate on consolidated findings relevant to the EU Green Deal.
•Analyses of rising number of 100% renewable energy scenarios requires extensive knowledge about the tools and methodology.•A novel 3-dimensional scenario process is used to generate and evaluate four different energy transition pathways.•Comparison of seven different 100% scenarios highlights common no-regret options for the European energy transition.•The EGD includes many of these no-regret options but still lacks in ambition when it comes to the speed of the transition.
We investigate the impact of trilemma energy balance and clean energy transitions on economic expansion and environmental sustainability while moderating the role of clean energy and natural ...resources rents of the three trilemma leaders from 1990 to 2016. Through this study, we have developed a comprehensive empirical analysis, applied advanced econometric methodologies. Westerlund's panel co-integration suggests long-run relationships within the variables. Our long-run random effect generalized least squares (GLS), generalized least square mixed effect models (GLMM), and robust correlated panel corrected standard errors (PCSEs) findings indicate trilemma energy balance, clean energy transition, and natural resource depletion enhance economic growth while clean energy discourages this growth. Moreover, trilemma energy balance, clean energy transitions, and clean energy improve while natural resources depletion deteriorates environmental sustainability in the trilemma energy leadership. Increasing the trilemma energy balance by 1% boosts economic growth by 0.3874223%. By increasing the trilemma energy balance by 1%, the ecological footprint is reduced by −0.5901441%. A 1% acceleration in the clean energy transitions boosts economic growth by 0.1208461%. By accelerating the transition to clean energy by 1%, the environmental footprint would decrease by 0.0273685%. Crucial policy implications and study limitations are discussed.
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•Energy trilemma and transition nexus checked for environment and economic growth.•Trilemma energy balance encourages economic growth and environmental sustainability.•Clean energy transitions improve economic growth and environmental sustainability.•Individually clean energy improves the environment and declining economic growth.•Natural resources depletion deteriorates environmental sustainability.
The role of renewable energy in protecting the environment is well established. This study explores the dynamic links among energy transitions, energy consumption, and sustainable economic growth in ...thirty-eight International Energy Agency (IEA) countries. We apply advanced econometric methodologies for empirical analysis from 1995 to 2015 and find long-run relationships among the variables. However, the effect of energy transitions on economic growth is significant only in the long run, and economic sustainability influences economic growth in both the short run and the long run. Moreover, the energy transition is negatively associated with host countries’ economic growth, while economic sustainability, renewable energy consumption, non-renewable energy consumption, labor, and capital are positively related to that growth. Policymakers in the IEA countries are encouraged to settle carbon costs and taxation, provide continuous support to research and development, commercialize low–CO2–emission technologies, reduce subsidies on non-renewable energy, offer cooperative programs for technology transfers, and generate a green trade policy to procure sustainable development. Study limitations and directions for future research in the area are presented.
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•Checked links among energy transitions, energy consumption, and economic growth.•Constructed PCA indexes for energy transition and crucial economic indicators.•Energy transition affects GDP in the long run and economic sustainability does so in the short and long runs.•Energy transition is negatively associated with economic growth.•Economic sustainability and energy consumption stimulate economic growth.
The greatest sustainability challenge facing humanity today is the greenhouse gas emissions and the global climate change with fossil fuels led by coal, natural gas and oil contributing 61.3% of ...global electricity generation in the year 2020. The cumulative effect of the Stockholm, Rio, and Johannesburg conferences identified sustainable energy development (SED) as a very important factor in the sustainable global development. This study reviews energy transition strategies and proposes a roadmap for sustainable energy transition for sustainable electricity generation and supply in line with commitments of the Paris Agreement aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting the rise in global average temperature to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level. The sustainable transition strategies typically consist of three major technological changes namely, energy savings on the demand side, generation efficiency at production level and fossil fuel substitution by various renewable energy sources and low carbon nuclear. For the transition remain technically and economically feasible and beneficial, policy initiatives are necessary to steer the global electricity transition towards a sustainable energy and electricity system. Large-scale renewable energy adoption should include measures to improve efficiency of existing nonrenewable sources which still have an important cost reduction and stabilization role. A resilient grid with advanced energy storage for storage and absorption of variable renewables should also be part of the transition strategies. From this study, it was noted that whereas sustainable development has social, economic, and environmental pillars, energy sustainability is best analysed by five-dimensional approach consisting of environmental, economic, social, technical, and institutional/political sustainability to determine resource sustainability. The energy transition requires new technology for maximum use of the abundant but intermittent renewable sources a sustainable mix with limited nonrenewable sources optimized to minimize cost and environmental impact but maintained quality, stability, and flexibility of an electricity supply system. Technologies needed for the transition are those that use conventional mitigation, negative emissions technologies which capture and sequester carbon emissions and finally technologies which alter the global atmospheric radiative energy budget to stabilize and reduce global average temperature. A sustainable electricity system needs facilitating technology, policy, strategies and infrastructure like smart grids, and models with an appropriate mix of both renewable and low carbon energy sources.
We are in the midst of a transition from a fossil fuel-dominated energy regime to a more sustainable lower-carbon one in which natural gas is a bridge fuel. Since the 1970s oil crises, however, the ...forecasts for gas and coal have changed three times. Gas is currently achieving a major position in the world’s energy mix but under challenging geopolitical forces; for this reason, different countries will follow different paths for adopting gas. This article uses a ternary diagram to shows that the fossil fuel consumption paths of the powers have greatly diverged over time. The close relationship between world hegemony and the dominant energy source (coal and then oil) in the past will be replaced by a multi-energy transition in which different countries choose different energy regimes in a multipolar international system.
This article examines the current trends and the state of development of the energy transition in the Russian Federation. This process presents many challenges and requires a country to develop a ...strategy for success. At the same time, the successful implementation of the energy transition requires a balanced solution for its organization and implementation and a clear economic calculation. The main purpose of the study was to systematize information on the organization and instruments of for financing the energy transition in the Russian Federation. Presented among the results of the planned modernization transformations of the economy, the energy transition must be considered in the system of existing relations to determine its role and place in this process. The article analyzes government decisions on the energy transition organization, describes key aspects of the modern energy agenda, and summarizes information on the main instruments of energy transition financing. The author concludes that Russia is shaping its energy transition agenda on the basis of competitive advantages and socio-economic development priorities. Regarding energy transition, the country currently adheres to the Paris Agreement, adapting cross-border carbon regulations. The system of organization of relations within the energy transition framework is only being formed in Russia today, while with regard to the funding mechanism there is some experience and groundwork formed in the organization of the financing process of the green economy. Financial flows are reoriented to sectors of the economy which ensure energy security, technological sovereignty and sustainable economic development of Russia.
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•Morocco could achieve a 92 % RE integration rate by 2050 with an additional $32 billion total cost.•Implementing EE measures can reduce energy demand by 15 % from 2030 to 2050 ...compared to baseline forecasts.•The NANES scenario results in the lowest emissions rate of 0.29 MtCO2e by 2050.•A comprehensive policy framework tailored for developing countries is proposed.•Advanced planning tools and an adapted OSeMOSYS model improve energy resource management in volatile conditions.
Developing countries encounter numerous challenges, such as limited access to reliable electricity and a heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels. To satisfy the rising energy demand, which is essential for economic growth, these regions are shifting towards sustainable energy solutions. Solar and wind power have emerged as key and secure energy sources. This research develops an enhanced OSeMOSYS energy system model to examine long-term energy supply strategies, using Morocco as a case study. The proposed model addresses the specific needs of decision-makers in developing countries, enabling the achievement of renewable energy targets and optimal temporal resolution. A baseline and three alternative scenarios were developed, exploring both a restructuring plan to address existing gaps and a forward-looking policy targeting nearly 100 % renewable energy. These scenarios are assessed in terms of installed capacity, generation mix, investment costs, variable and fixed costs, storage capacity utilization, and carbon emissions. The results indicate that a 92 % integration rate for renewables is feasible at an additional cost of $32 billion, thanks to new energy efficiency measures reducing demand by 15 % between 2030 and 2050 compared to baseline forecasts. Furthermore, an ambitious energy strategy by 2050 could achieve the lowest emissions rate of 0.29 Mt, paving the way for complete decarbonization. Technologically, investment in pumped-storage hydroelectric plants is the most viable backup option for a country dependent on natural gas imports. Our findings emphasize that a diversified energy mix and robust energy efficiency plans are essential for a rapid and feasible transition of the country’s energy system. This paper offers an enhanced energy model to help decision-makers in developing countries set targets on the share of renewables in total installed capacity, thereby increasing their integration rate at minimal additional cost.
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