In this study, LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory) and GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) techniques of deep learning, which are among the latest advanced technologies, were applied in the Google Colab software ...program for stock price forecasting. The dataset used in the study was obtained from Yahoo Finance and covers the dates between 02/01/2013 and 30/12/2022. Forecast models were created by considering 5 companies belonging to the XELKT (Electricity Market in Borsa Istanbul) index, which is part of BIST (Borsa Istanbul). Subsequently, the success of these forecast models was tested with the calculated model performance criteria, aiming to determine whether the techniques used were successful in stock price forecasting. Additionally, based on the results of MSE (Mean Squared Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) among the calculated model performance criteria, the techniques used were compared with each other, aiming to determine which of these techniques provided forecasts with less error. Then, through the analysis conducted on four different days, an attempt was made to identify the day that yielded the most successful forecasts. As a final step, the goal was to find a model with the least error based on techniques, epoch number, and the number of days forecasted, considering both MSE and MAPE for stocks. Since the model performance criteria outputs obtained from these analyses are below 1 for MSE and below 5% for MAPE, it can be concluded that both techniques demonstrate successful stock price forecasting. Consequently, in the comparison between these two techniques, it is observed that the LSTM technique is slightly more successful than the GRU technique.
Modeling the behavior of stock price data has always been one of the challenging applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) due to its high complexity and dependence on ...various conditions. Recent studies show that this will be difficult to do with just one learning model. The problem can be more complex for companies in the construction sector, due to the dependency of their behavior on more conditions. This study aims to provide a hybrid model for improving the accuracy of prediction for the stock price index of companies in the construction section. The contribution of this paper can be considered as follows: First, a combination of several prediction models is used to predict stock prices so that learning models can cover each other's errors. In this research, an ensemble model based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) is presented for predicting the stock price index. Second, the optimization technique is used to determine the effect of each learning model on the prediction result. For this purpose, first, all three mentioned algorithms process the data simultaneously and perform the prediction operation. Then, using the Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm, the output weight of each algorithm is determined as a coefficient. Finally, using the ensemble technique, these results are combined and the final output is generated through weighted averaging on optimal coefficients. The proposed system was implemented, and its efficiency was evaluated by real stock data of construction companies. The results showed that using CS optimization in the proposed ensemble system is highly effective in reducing prediction error. According to the results, the proposed system can predict the price index with an average accuracy of 96.6 %, which shows a reduction of at least 2.4 % in prediction error compared to the previous methods. Comparing the evaluation results of the proposed system with similar algorithms indicates that our model is more accurate and can be useful for predicting the stock price index in real-world scenarios.
This paper proposes and analyzes a methodology of forecasting movements of the analysts’ net income estimates and those of stock prices. We achieve this by applying natural language processing and ...neural networks in the context of analyst reports. In the pre-experiment, we applied our method to extract opinion sentences from the analyst report while classifying the remaining parts as non-opinion sentences. Then, we performed two additional experiments. First, we employed our proposed method for forecasting the movements of analysts’ net income estimates by inputting the opinion and non-opinion sentences into separate neural networks. Besides the reports, we inputted the trend of the net income estimate to the networks. Second, we employed our proposed method for forecasting the movements of stock prices. Consequently, we found differences between security firms, which depend on whether analysts’ net income estimates tend to be forecasted by opinions or facts in the context of analyst reports. Furthermore, the trend of the net income estimate was found to be effective for the forecast as well as an analyst report. However, in experiments of forecasting movements of stock prices, the difference between opinion sentences and non-opinion sentences was not effective.
A time-tested guide to stock trading market cycles and seasonal trends Published every year since 1968, the Stock Trader's Almanac is a practical investment tool with a wealth of information ...organized in calendar format. Everyone from well-known money managers to savvy traders and investors relies upon this annual resource for its in-depth analyses and insights. The Stock Trader's Almanac 2014 contains essential historical price information on the stock market, provides monthly and daily reminders, and highlights seasonal trading opportunities and dangers. The STA is now bound with a lexitone cover and an attractive gold spiral with gold foil stamping. This new format is more user-friendly and lies flat when open, easier for making notes. It is also lighter and more portable. This version harkens back to the original STA format that Yale Hirsch pioneered over 40 years ago. The Stock Trader's Almanac 2014 is packed with timely insights and targeted analysis to help you navigate turbulent markets and beat the odds in the year ahead. This trusted guide combines over a century's worth of data, statistics, and trends along with vital analysis you won't get anywhere else. Alerts you to little-known market patterns and tendencies to help forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence An indispensable annual resource, trusted for over 40 years by traders and investors The data in the Almanac is some of the best in the business For its wealth of information and the authority of its sources, the Stock Trader's Almanac stands alone as the guide to intelligent investing.
An up-to-date look at point and figure charting from one of the foremost authorities in the field If you're looking for an investment approach that has stood the test of time-during both bull and ...bear markets-and is easy enough to learn, whether you're an expert or aspiring investor, then Point and Figure Charting, Fourth Edition is the book for you. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, this practical guide will help you grow your assets in any market. In this reliable resource, the world's top point and figure charting expert, Tom Dorsey returns to explain how traders and investors alike can use this classic technique-borne out of the irrefutable laws of supply and demand-to identify and capitalize on market trends. Describes, step-by-step, how to create, maintain, and interpret your own point and figure charts with regard to markets, sectors, and individual securities Explains how to use other indicators, including moving averages, advance-decline lines, and relative strength to augment point and figure analysis Reveals how to use this approach to track and forecast market prices and develop an overall investment strategy Skillfully explains how to use point and figure analysis to evaluate the strength of international markets and rotate exposure from country to country Today's investment arena is filled with a variety of strategies that never seem to deliver on what they promise. But there is one approach to investment analysis that has proven itself in all types of markets, and it's found right here in Point and Figure Charting, Fourth Edition.
Point and Figure charts are one of the great secrets of the Technical Analysis world. Highly sophisticated and with a thoroughbred pedigree, they can, however, be overlooked by traders today. Jeremy ...du Plessis - one of the foremost Point and Figure experts in the world - returns with a fully updated second edition of this definitive guide in an effort to redress this imbalance.
This second edition, with an extensive revision to the text and introduction of brand new techniques, demystifies the world of Point and Figure charting. It includes a detailed explanation of the history and development of the technique from its invention to the modern day, and covers the makeup of the chart patterns, why they are created, and how to interpret them.
Throughout, readers are encouraged to understand Point and Figure charts from first principles, rather than just remember the names of a series of patterns. It is the first major work for 50 years to discuss in depth the original 1-box reversal method of Point and Figure charting and contrast it with the more popular 3-box reversal method. Further, the explanation of how to use Point and Figure charts to project targets and calculate risk-reward ratios is the most comprehensive ever seen.
Also featured in the second edition are:
- A step-by-step analysis of the FTSE 100 Index using the 3-box method, as well as the NASDAQ Composite Index, using the 1-box method
- A detailed discussion of optimising techniques
- An in-depth chapter on Analysing Point and Figure charts, extensively rewritten from the first edition
- A new explanation of how Point and Figure parameters are chosen and the implications of choosing them
- Two new Point and Figure construction methods never seen before
- Point and Figure's contribution to market breadth, with a look at bullish percent and two brand new indicators
- Full discussion of Point and Figure gaps and how they provide valuable information about the chart
- Lesser known, more advanced techniques such as the use of moving averages, parabolic SAR and Bollinger Bands on Point and Figure charts
- Price and volume activity histograms and how they provide information about support and resistance
All this is illustrated with numerous colour charts and observations from years of trading experience.
According to du Plessis, Point and Figure charts are the 'voice of the market'. This book helps you listen to, and understand, that voice.
Part of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) Required Reading list.
Trades About to Happen Weis, David H; Elder, Alexander
2013, 2013., 2013-05-31, 2013-04-16, Volume:
444
eBook
The definitive book on adapting the classic work of Richard Wyckoff to today's marketsPrice and volume analysis is one of the most effective approaches to market analysis. It was pioneered by Richard ...Wyckoff, who worked on Wall Street during the golden age of technical analysis. In Trades About to Happen, veteran trader David Weis explains how to utilize the principles behind Wyckoff's work and make effective trades with this method.Page by page, Weis clearly demonstrates how to construct intraday wave charts similar to Wyckoff's originals, draw support/resistance lines, interpret the struggle for dominance in trading ranges, and recognize action signals at turning points.Analyzes markets one bar chart at a time, which recreates the ambiguity of actual tradingEmphasizes reading price/volume charts without a secondary reliance on mathematical indicatorsIncludes a short study guide in the appendix to help readers master the materialFilled with in-depth insights and practical advice, Trades About to Happenpromises to be the definitive work on utilizing Wyckoff's classic methods in today's turbulent markets.
PDF
