A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how ...they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai–Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time.
We examine the frequency of price changes for 350 categories of goods and services covering about 70 percent of consumer spending, on the basis of unpublished data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics ...for 1995–97. In comparison with previous studies, we find much more frequent price changes, with half of prices lasting less than 4.3 months. Even excluding temporary price cuts (sales), we find that half of prices last 5.5 months or less. We also find that the frequency of price changes differs dramatically across goods. Compared to the predictions of popular sticky‐price models, actual inflation rates are far more volatile and transient for sticky‐price goods.
This paper studies co-movements between world oil prices and global prices for corn, soybean and wheat using copulas. Several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and ...time-varying dependence parameters were considered. Empirical results for weekly data from January 1998 to April 2011 showed weak oil-food dependence and no extreme market dependence between oil and food prices. These results support the neutrality of agricultural commodity markets to the effects of changes in oil prices and non-contagion between the crude oil and agricultural markets. However, dependence increased significantly in the last three years of the sampling period, even though upper tail dependence remained insignificant, indicating that food price spikes are not caused by positive extreme oil price changes. These results have implications for policy design, risk management and hedging strategies.
► We study co-movement between food and oil markets through copulas. ► Food prices are neutral to the effects of changes in oil prices. ► Oil price spikes had no causal effect on agricultural price spikes. ► Oil–corn and oil–soybean dependence increased in recent years. ► Food subsidy policies and price controls are unnecessary to avoid extreme oil prices.
The research explores the dynamic relationship between global crude oil price and food price indices on a sample of monthly data spanning from January 1990 to June 2017 within a nonlinear framework. ...Linear methods are applied first to examine the stationarity, co-integration and linear Granger causality of the variables of crude oil and food price indices. Moreover, a series of nonlinear tests are used to detect the nonlinearity of the univariate and oil-food prices link. Finally, the asymmetric adjustment analyses are made to understand the dynamic vary mechanism depending on the considered regime of the threshold vector autoregressive model (TVAR), and the threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) is integrated to check how the variables respond to the deviations from the equilibrium. The findings of systematic tests and analyses confirm the fact that there is a nonlinear causal relationship between global crude oil and food price indices. The co-movement of crude oil and food price has obvious structural break features, which is relevant to the underlying regime. Furthermore, the results also show that the adjustment process of the food price indices towards equilibrium is highly persistent and grows faster than oil price when a threshold is reached.
•A new framework is proposed to analyze the volatility spillover effect.•We prove that the relationship between the two is nonlinear and asymmetric.•In TVAR model, the relationship between the two is reversed in different regimes.•In the TVECM model, only the ECT is significant in the food equation of regime 2.
We study the price rigidity of regular and sale prices, and how it is affected by pricing formats (i.e., pricing strategies). We use data from three large Canadian stores with different pricing ...formats (Every-Day-Low-Price, Hi-Lo, and Hybrid) that are located within a 1 km radius of each other. Our data contains both the actual transaction prices and actual regular prices as displayed on the store shelves. We combine these data with two “generated” regular price series (filtered prices and reference prices) and study their rigidity. Regular price rigidity varies with store formats because different format stores treat sale prices differently, and consequently define regular prices differently. Correspondingly, the meanings of price cuts and sale prices vary across store formats. To interpret the findings, we consider the store pricing format distribution across the US.
Price Points and Price Rigidity Levy, Daniel; Lee, Dongwon; Chen, Haipeng (Allan) ...
The review of economics and statistics,
11/2011, Volume:
93, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We study the link between price points and price rigidity using two data sets: weekly scanner data and Internet data. We find that “9” is the most frequent ending for the penny, dime, dollar, and ...ten-dollar digits; the most common price changes are those that keep the price endings at “9”; 9-ending prices are less likely to change than non-9-ending prices; and the average size of price change is larger for 9-ending than non-9-ending prices. We conclude that 9-ending contributes to price rigidity from penny to dollar digits and across a wide range of product categories, retail formats, and retailers.
Golosov and Lucas recently argued that a menu-cost model, when made consistent with salient features of the microdata, predicts approximate monetary neutrality. I argue here that their model misses, ...in fact, two important features of the data. First, the distribution of the size of price changes in the data is very dispersed. Second, in the data many price changes are temporary. I study an extension of the simple menu-cost model to a multiproduct setting in which firms face economies of scope in adjusting posted and regular prices. The model, because of its ability to replicate this additional set of microeconomic facts, predicts real effects of monetary policy shocks that are much greater than those in Golosov and Lucas and nearly as large as those in the Calvo model. Although episodes of sales account for roughly 40% of all goods sold in retail stores, the model predicts that these episodes do not contribute much to the flexibility of the aggregate price level.
Nonlinear pricing and taxation complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. This paper provides a framework to uncover consumers' perceived price of nonlinear ...price schedules. I exploit price variation at spatial discontinuities in electricity service areas, where households in the same city experience substantially different nonlinear pricing. Using household-level panel data from administrative records, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. This suboptimizing behavior makes nonlinear pricing unsuccessful in achieving its policy goal of energy conservation and critically changes the welfare implications of nonlinear pricing.
The success and expansion of the International Comparison Program (ICP) has led to an increase in interest and effort on the estimation of sub-national price levels and purchasing power parities ...(PPPs). The ICP highlighted a difficulty that large countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China face during the price-collection phase, namely how to obtain average prices when there are large disparities in many types of expenditure categories, such as housing prices between rural and urban settings. The fact that such disparities were in evidence led to more research on within-country PPPs, or regional price parities (RPPs). The difference between a RPP and the PPPs is simply that the former are in the same currency, while PPPs are usually converted to a reference country or currency by the exchange rate, such as the United States Dollar or the Euro. This paper describes the methodology used to estimate the RPPs within the United States, and shows their effect on measures of income adjusted to constant dollars, termed real regional incomes.
In times of highly volatile commodity markets, governments often try to protect their populations from rapidly rising food prices, which can be particularly harmful for the poor. A potential solution ...for food-deficit countries is to hold strategic reserves that can be called on when international prices spike. But how large should strategic stockpiles be, and what rules should govern their release? In this paper, we develop a dynamic competitive storage model for wheat in the Middle East and North Africa region, where imported wheat is the most significant component of the average diet. We analyze a strategy that sets aside wheat stockpiles, which can be used to keep domestic prices below a targeted price. Our analysis shows that if the target price is set high and reserves are adequate, the strategy can be effective and robust. Contrary to most interventions, strategic storage policies are counter-cyclical, and when the importing region is sufficiently large, a regional policy can smooth global prices. Simulations indicate that this is the case for the Middle East and North Africa region. Nevertheless, the policy is more costly than a procyclical policy similar to food stamps that uses targeted transfers to directly offset high prices with a subsidy.
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