Background.
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the human casualties caused by it, and the possibility of new epidemical threats make the search for effective countermeasures actual. One of the most ...effective tools, as the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, is restrictive measures of various types, which are especially significant with medical countermeasures being unavailable or insufficient. At the same time, the topic of restrictive measures and their mathematical modeling, especially given its importance, is not sufficiently disclosed in the scientific literature.
The aim.
To determine the possibility of assessing the effectiveness of restrictive epidemic control measures using original models of cellular automaton with intercellular boundaries.
Methods.
To determine the impact of restrictive measures on the dynamics of the daily increase in infected people, an original cellular automaton with intercellular boundaries was developed, which makes it possible to simulate epidemic control measures of varying stringency. In the simulations carried out using the Monte Carlo method with subsequent statistical processing, we studied the impact of restrictive measures of varying stringency on the number of infected people, the duration of the epidemic, and the quality of forecasting. The final series of experiments simulated the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Germany in the first half of 2020.
The results
show that even a simple cellular automaton model with boundaries successfully describes the course of the epidemic and allows us to assess the effectiveness of restrictive measures. The dependence of the daily increase in infected people on the stringency of measures is presented; it is shown what characteristics of the population can influence this dependence. It was found that the measures of medium stringency (40–50 % according to the Stringency Index) have the least predictable effect; they can cause both rapid localization of the focus and the spread of the epidemic to a large part of the population. Weak and strong measures give a more predictable effect.
Conclusion.
Cellular automaton models with intercellular boundaries have great potential for modeling the impact of restrictive measures on the course of an epidemic, making it possible to predict the dynamics of infected people based on the population data and the restrictive measures being introduced.
The decisions to impose sanctions on Russia and to lift them on Iran, in opposition to the wishes of the United States, contributed to the elevation of the profile of the European Union among the ...main global actors in international politics. However, the EU imposes sanctions since the spring of 1994, shortly after the entry into force of the Treaty of Maastricht. Even though the EU consequently has 26 years of experience herewith, EU sanctions have been mostly studied only on a case-by-case basis. The aim of this article is to provide an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of the experience of the EU with sanctions. Specifically, it presents the results of a newly constructed database of EU autonomous sanctions constituted by 48 cases of these restrictive measures, which have been subdivided in 85 episodes. The analysis revolves around four questions that we asked in each case: when sanctions were in force, what type(s) were used, where the targets were located and why restrictive measures were imposed. The analysis of the empirical database leads to observations about the EU as an international actor and, more generally, on the trends vis-à-vis the utilisation of sanctions as a foreign policy instrument.
Abstract
Background
On 1 January 2020, the Care and Coercion Act came into effect in the Netherlands, subjecting involuntary care to more strict regulations and monitoring. This study tested changes ...in recordings of involuntary care during the transitional year of 2020 and after full implementation in 2021, which coincided with the first severe test of the new regulations, when COVID‐19 lockdown measures were taken on 16 March 2020.
Methods
Data consisted of weekly counts of involuntary care from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2021, taken from the care data of more than 3000 clients with intellectual disabilities and challenging behaviour of 's Heeren Loo, a large long‐term care organisation in the Netherlands. An interrupted time series design was used to compare the period under the former law with the period under the new law and to the period during and after implementation, taking into account the impact of the COVID‐19 lockdown measures on recordings of involuntary care.
Results
Under the new act in Week 1 of 2020, a statistically significant drop occurred in involuntary care counts, after which these counts gradually decreased. The start of 2021, the year in which the act was fully implemented, showed an initial increase in counts of involuntary care, followed by a decrease (all
P
s < .001). The introduction of the COVID‐19 lockdown measures did not statistically affect the weekly counts of involuntary care.
Conclusions
The decrease in registered involuntary care after the Care and Coercion Act came into effect is a first indication of the efficacy of this new law that requires careful multidisciplinary consultations around the right of clients to respect their self‐determination. Follow‐up research should examine whether the impact of the new law aligns with clients' experiences of self‐determination.
(Series Information) European Papers - A Journal on Law and Integration, 2022 7(3), 1121-1130 | European Forum Insight of 4 February 2023 | (Table of Contents) I. Introduction: framing the problem. - ...II. Simple and constructive abstentions as flexibility mechanisms under CFSP. - III. Constructive abstention and international economic sanctions: constructive abstention as limited to the CFSP act... - IV. ... and constructive abstention applying to TFEU regulations. - V. Constructive abstention and the duty of loyal cooperation: too a heavy burden in the context of sanctions? - VI. Concluding remarks. | (Abstract) Constructive abstention, provided for in art. 31(2) TEU, has been conceived of as an instrument applicable to CFSP acts. As art. 215 TFEU establishes an integrated regime in which CFSP decisions and TFEU regulations are interdependent on each other, the issue arises as to whether the scope of constructive abstention can be extended to cover not only the CFSP decision but also its implementing regulation. This Insight argues that constructive abstention should apply not only to the CFSP act, but also to the regulation. In turn, this conclusion calls for reflection on the scope and consequences of the duty of loyal cooperation in the context of restrictive measures and, more generally, on the effectiveness of constructive abstention in this field.
Purpose
This paper aims to discuss the adequacy of restrictive measures. Providing a synopsis of a global movement toward the imposition of target restrictive measures. Questioning the success of ...targeted restrictive measures in obtaining behavioural change. Identifying a reversion to the implementation of wide ranging sectoral restrictive measures in an attempt to encourage immediate behavioural change. Accessing the success of using restrictive measures to encourage democratic regimes in Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
This study is a desktop research that examines European Parliament and Council issued Regulations for the jurisdictions of Iran, Russia and Belarus. Academic research is also used in identifying a pendulum swing by global legislatures with respect to the imposition of targeted measures to requiring the imposition of additional wide ranging sectoral measures.
Findings
Targeted measures can be circumvented using non-hostile third countries. Academic research identifies that wide reaching sectoral sanctions encourage regime change. Therefore, where targeted measures fail to give rise to their desired persuasive objectives. The legislator moves to introduce additional measures, also comprising of sectoral sanctions. Sectoral sanctions have been applied by the European Union in Iran, Russia and Belarus. The USA has taken measures to limit Russia ability to use Turkey as a transshipment hub. The African continent case study identifies the importance of creating an architecture founded on upholding positive governance and human rights standards. Failure to do so leads to a revolving system of authoritarian regimes, sanctioned by restrictive measures.
Originality/value
This paper is a desktop review composed by the author.
Sanctions were the European Union's (EU) immediate response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. These restrictive measures focus on specific individuals, entities, goods, services, ...and sectors. Out of a need for nuanced data, we map and analyze the entire set of EU sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 until today. We show and argue that the sanctions' design has become increasingly comprehensive over the past months which reflects the EU's geopolitical considerations in carving out a response to the unparalleled threat imposed by Russia. Our new, author-created dataset covers the complete track record of Council decisions, regulations, and annexes of these restrictive measures, and thereby offers fine-grained information on the transformation and design of EU sanctions against Russia and the Russian-controlled areas in Ukraine.
We aimed to assess the epidemiological characteristics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in Chinese children at different phases of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic, that ...is, before, during the pandemic and after easing of restrictive measures. We included 123 623 patients aged 0–18 years with respiratory infection symptoms who were suspected with RSV infection from January 1, 2019 to June 30, 2023 in Hangzhou Children's Hospital. Clinical information and RSV test result were extracted from the laboratory information system. We calculated the positive rate of RSV detection by age groups, gender, seasons, types of patients and phases of COVID‐19 pandemic. Nonlinear associations between age and risk of RSV infection in three phases of pandemic were assessed by restricted cubic spline regression models. Among 123 623 patients, 3875 (3.13%) were tested as positive. The highest positive rate was observed in children aged 0–28 days (i.e., 12.28%). RSV infection was most prevalent in winter (6.04%), and followed by autumn (2.52%). Although there is no statistical significance regarding the positive rate at three phases of the pandemic, we observed that the rate was lowest during the pandemic and increased after easing the measures in certain age groups (p < 0.05), which was consisted with results from the nonlinear regression analyses. In addition, regression analyses suggested that the age range of children susceptible to RSV got wider, that is, 0–3.5 years, after easing all restrictive measures compared with that before (i.e., 0–3 years) and during the pandemic (i.e., 0–1 year). Based on our findings, we called for attention from health professionals and caregivers on the new epidemiological characteristics of RSV infection in the post‐pandemic era after easing the restrictive measures.
This paper analyzes the EU-Russia energy relations in the period 2010-2022. Although in other sectors the European Union has a competitive advantage, in this area the vulnerability of the EU to ...Russia is fully felt. The gas crises (2006 and 2009) and the conflict in Ukraine (2014 and 2022) highlighted the European Union’s over-reliance on Russian energy resources. The escalation of the conflict in February 2022 has created a state of uncertainty about the evolution of the energy cooperation between the EU and Russia. The aim of this research is to identify and assess the impact of sanctions and counter-sanctions on trade in the energy sector between the EU and the Russian Federation, as well as the problems and prospects of EU-Russia energy relations. In order to achieve the proposed objectives, this paper is the result of a mixed research design, based on a quantitative and a qualitative component, respectively. The topicality of the debate on EU-Russia energy relations is reflected in the field of scientific investigation through a significant literature. Official documents of the European Commission and the European Parliament, academic articles and studies conducted by various prestigious think-tanks were analysed. Also, the research is based on data published by Eurostat and International Energy Agency.
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