► Bribery largely determines if private firms have access to bank credit in China. ► Bribery enables firms with better performance are awarded larger loans. ► These firms also pay more in terms of ...bribes. ► Firm performance determines loan access only for loans from the big-four banks. ► For loans from smaller banks, performance is not essential for loan access.
Bribery, rather than firm performance, largely determines the extent to which private firms access bank credit in China. Bribery enables an economic outcome whereby firms with better economic performance are awarded larger loans. These firms also pay more in terms of bribes. Although satisfactory firm performance does determine whether firms can access loans, it does so only for loans originated by the big-four banks. For loans originated by smaller banks, performance is not essential for firms to secure loan access. Our evidence sheds light on the surprising finding of earlier studies that Chinese banks use commercial logic in their lending practices despite being endowed with a weak institutional framework.
Some recent time series studies testing the stationarity of real exchange rates (RERs) produce conflicting results. Using nonlinear unit root tests and recursive analysis, this paper tests whether ...the evidence on the stationarity of RERs is sensitive to different numeraire currencies, different sample periods covering regional and global crises, and the inclusion of countries with different levels of economic or regional integration. The results indicate that evidence for a stationary RER could be substantially sensitive to sample period changes, but not so for the currencies of the countries involved in forming the euro area. We also find that financial crises have a notable impact on testing the stationarity of RERs, depending on the numeraire currency used. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.
Traditional autocorrelation and variance ratio tests are based on serial uncorrelatedness rather than martingale difference. As such, they do not capture potential nonlinearity-in-mean, which could ...lead to misleading inferences in favor of the martingale hypothesis. This paper employs various parametric and nonparametric nonlinear models as well as several model comparison criteria to examine the potential martingale behavior of Euro exchange rates in the context of out-of-sample forecasts. The overall evidence indicates that, while martingale behavior cannot be rejected for Euro exchange rates with major currencies such as the Japanese yen, British pound, and US dollar, there is nonlinear predictability in terms of economic criteria with respect to several smaller currencies.
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between daily stock and government bond returns of selected countries over the past decade to infer the state and progress of inter-financial market ...integration. We proceed to empirically investigate the influence of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on time variations in inter-stock–bond market integration/segmentation dynamics using a two-step procedure: First, we document the downward trends in time-varying conditional correlations between stock and bond market returns in European countries, Japan and the US. Second, we investigate the causality and determinants of this interdependent relationship, in particular, whether the various macroeconomic convergence criteria associated with the EMU have played a significant role. We find that real economic integration and the reduction in currency risk have generally had the desired effect on financial integration but monetary policy integration may have created uncertain investor sentiments on the economic future of the EMU, thereby stimulating a flight to quality phenomenon.
Collateral smile Leippold, Markus; Su, Lujing
Journal of banking & finance,
09/2015, Volume:
58
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We analyze the impact of funding costs and margin requirements on index options traded on the CBOE. Assuming differential borrowing and lending rates, we derive no-arbitrage bounds for European ...options. We show that funding costs and the CBOE’s margin requirements lead to a price increase, which translates into skew and smile patterns for implied volatility curves even under constant volatilities. Empirical tests confirm that our model-implied slopes have significant statistical power in explaining the slopes observed in the market. Hence, at least in part, funding costs and collateral requirements offer an institutional explanation of the volatility smile phenomenon.
While investor sentiment has been shown to have a robust, direct impact on stock returns, we know little about how it impacts returns through an indirect channel from conditional volatility. We ...conduct a global study of investor sentiment across 40 international stock markets to examine the impact of investor sentiment on stock returns via both direct and indirect channels and how the impact varies across bull and bear market regimes. Using turnover ratio as the sentiment proxy and applying GARCH-type models, we confirm a conditional impact of investor sentiment on stock returns via both channels: In bull regimes, optimistic (pessimistic) shifts in investor sentiment would increase (decrease) stock returns, while in bear regimes, optimistic (pessimistic) shifts would decrease (increase) stock returns.
Although community banks hold a small proportion of U.S. banking assets and market share, they perform a crucial function in the U.S. economy by offering vital financial services to businesses and ...individuals in regions where major banks do not operate. Their diseconomies of scale put them at a competitive disadvantage in relation to large, national commercial banks when coping with digital transformation and regulatory requirements. These challenges mounted after the Great Recession. This research, with the usage of four key financial ratio categories and the implementation of logit regression, looks into how U.S. community banks evolved in the aftermath of the financial crisis, 2009-2017. It divides the entire sample period into two sub-sample periods, 2009-2012 and 2013-2017, and comparing community banks with their larger counterpart and within the community bank sector between the largest and the smallest asset size quartiles of the group. This study, to the best of our knowledge, represents the only known research at the time of publication that compares recovery of banks post the Great Recession based on whether they are community or non-community banks. It finds that community banks tended to recover more slowly in terms of the bottom line, ROE, after the Great Recession than large national banks. Additionally, community banks are more likely to carry even less capital than their national counterparts in the later time period as compared with the earlier time period. In contrast, banks with higher liquidity and greater operating efficiency are more associated with community banks than non-community banks. Also, the empirical findings posit that size matters, to a certain extent. That is, while size does not command an absolute advantage, a certain threshold may be necessary for a bank to stay competitive. This provides a rationale for mergers and acquisitions taking place in the banking sector.
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