Modelling trends in central England temperatures

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Modelling trends in central England temperatures

Harvey, David I.; Mills, Terence C.

Journal of forecasting, 01/2003, Volume: 22, Issue: 1

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Trends are extracted from the central England temperature (CET) data available from 1723, using both annual and seasonal averages. Attention is focused on fitting non‐parametric trends and it is found that, while there is no compelling evidence of a trend increase in the CET, there have been three periods of cooling, stability, and warming, roughly associated with the beginning and the end of the Industrial Revolution. There does appear to have been an upward shift in trend spring temperatures, but forecasting of current trends is hazardous because of the statistical uncertainty surrounding them. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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