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Teutschbein, Claudia; Jonsson, Elise; Todorović, Andrijana; Tootoonchi, Faranak; Stenfors, Elin; Grabs, Thomas
Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam), 02/2023, Volume: 617Journal Article
Display omitted •The water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus concept is applied to assess drought conditions in Sweden.•Targeted standardized drought indices are chosen to represent different nexus sectors.•Sectors feature different response times to precipitation deficits and resulting drought durations, both of which are changing in the future.•Droughts become more frequent, longer and severe across most WEFE nexus sectors.•The energy sector is exceptional as it features fewer, shorter and less severe future droughts. Droughts can affect a multitude of public and private sectors, with impacts developing slowly over time. While droughts are traditionally quantified in relation to the hydrological components of the water cycle that they affect, this manuscript demonstrates a novel approach to assess future drought conditions through the lens of the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus concept. To this end, a set of standardized drought indices specifically designed to represent different nexus sectors across 50 catchments in Sweden was computed based on an ensemble of past and future climate model simulations. Different patterns in the response of the four nexus sectors water, energy, food and ecosystem services to future climate change emerged, with different response times and drought durations across the sectors. These results offer new insights into the propagation of drought through the WEFE nexus in cold climates. They further suggest that future drought projections can be better geared towards decision makers by basing them on standardized drought indices that were specifically tailored to represent particular nexus sectors.
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