Malnutrition (MN) in nursing home (NH) residents is associated with poor outcome. In order to identify those with a high risk of incident MN, the knowledge of predictors is crucial. Therefore, we investigated predictors of incident MN in older NH-residents. NH-residents participating in the nutritionDay-project (nD) between 2007 and 2018, aged ≥65 years, with complete data on nutritional status at nD and after 6 months and without MN at nD. The association of 17 variables (general characteristics (n = 3), function (n = 4), nutrition (n = 1), diseases (n = 5) and medication (n = 4)) with incident MN (weight loss ≥ 10% between nD and follow-up (FU) or BMI (kg/m ) < 20 at FU) was analyzed in univariate generalized estimated equation (GEE) models. Significant (p < 0.1) variables were selected for multivariate GEE-analyses. Effect estimates are presented as odds ratios and their respective 99.5%-confidence intervals. Of 11,923 non-malnourished residents, 10.5% developed MN at FU. No intake at lunch (OR 2.79 1.56-4.98), a quarter (2.15 1.56-2.97) or half of the meal eaten (1.72 1.40-2.11) (vs. three-quarter to complete intake), the lowest BMI-quartile (20.0-23.0) (1.86 1.44-2.40) (vs. highest (≥29.1)), being between the ages of 85 and 94 years (1.46 1.05; 2.03) (vs. the youngest age-group 65-74 years)), severe cognitive impairment (1.38 1.04; 1.84) (vs. none) and being immobile (1.28 1.00-1.62) (vs. mobile) predicted incident MN in the final model. 10.5% of non-malnourished NH-residents develop MN within 6 months. Attention should be paid to high-risk groups, namely residents with poor meal intake, low BMI, severe cognitive impairment, immobility, and older age.