Altaweel, Mark R., Lilian N. Alessa, and Andrew D. Kliskey, 2009. Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Creating Tools for Assessing Social-Hydrological Systems. Journal of the American Water ...Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1379-1389. Abstract: Arctic communities are increasingly faced with social-ecological changes that act at variable speeds and spatial scales. Such changes will affect vital resources, particularly water supplies. Currently, there are few computational tools that integrate multiple social and environmental processes in order to aid communities' adaptation to change through decision support systems. This paper proposes a modeling and simulation approach that can integrate such processes at different spatiotemporal scales in order to address issues affecting community water supplies. In this paper, a modeling and simulation tool is developed and applied to a case study on the Seward Peninsula. Initial results, using both field observations and computation, show projected patterns of water use, perceptions of water availability, and long-term consumption trends. More broadly, the paper demonstrates the need for developing tools that address issues at the community level for better understanding human and hydrological interactions and policy decisions affecting water supplies.
Altaweel, Mark R., Lilian N. Alessa, and Andrew D. Kliskey, 2009. Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Creating Tools for Assessing Social–Hydrological Systems. Journal of the American Water ...Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1379‐1389.
: Arctic communities are increasingly faced with social–ecological changes that act at variable speeds and spatial scales. Such changes will affect vital resources, particularly water supplies. Currently, there are few computational tools that integrate multiple social and environmental processes in order to aid communities’ adaptation to change through decision support systems. This paper proposes a modeling and simulation approach that can integrate such processes at different spatiotemporal scales in order to address issues affecting community water supplies. In this paper, a modeling and simulation tool is developed and applied to a case study on the Seward Peninsula. Initial results, using both field observations and computation, show projected patterns of water use, perceptions of water availability, and long‐term consumption trends. More broadly, the paper demonstrates the need for developing tools that address issues at the community level for better understanding human and hydrological interactions and policy decisions affecting water supplies.
Alessa, Lilian, Mark Altaweel, Andrew Kliskey, Christopher Bone, William Schnabel, and Kalb Stevenson, 2011. Alaska’s Freshwater Resources: Issues Affecting Local and International Interests. Journal ...of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):143‐157. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00498.x
: The State of Alaska faces a broad range of freshwater challenges including limited resource access in rural communities, increasing freshwater use, and a pressing need to better understand and prepare for climate‐driven change. Despite these significant issues, Alaska is relatively water‐rich and far more equipped to address its water resource concerns compared with other regions of the world. Globally, simultaneous and rapid water stresses have influenced and complicated conflicts and are motivating nations to develop markets and trade as one of the primary means to manage their needs for this resource. This paper presents these interacting issues in the context of Alaska’s relationship with a world undergoing significant social and ecological changes that affect freshwater supplies. We present the challenges faced by Alaska in the context of a larger global perspective, and briefly explore the relative effects these issues have on local, regional, and global scales. We present the argument that Alaska needs to develop more robust institutions and policies that can alleviate both household concerns and ensure that Alaska plays a significant role in the international freshwater arena for its long‐term resilience.
New multimodel simulations of Bronze Age Mesopotamian settlement system dynamics, using advanced object-based simulation frameworks, are addressing fine-scale interaction of natural processes (crop ...growth, hydrology, etc.) and social processes (kinship-driven behaviors, farming and herding practices, etc.) on a daily basis across multigenerational model runs. Key components of these simulations are representations of initial settlement populations that are demographically and socially plausible, and detailed models of social mechanisms that can produce and maintain realistic textures of social structure and dynamics over time. The simulation engine has broad applicability and is also being used to address modern problems such as agroeconomic sustainability in Southeast Asia. This article describes the simulation framework and presents results of initial studies, highlighting some social system representations.
New multimodel simulations of Bronze Age Mesopotamian settlement system dynamics, using advanced object-based simulation frameworks, are addressing fine-scale interaction of natural processes (crop ...growth, hydrology, etc.) and social processes (kinship-driven behaviors, farming and herding practices, etc.) on a daily basis across multigenerational model runs. Key components of these simulations are representations of initial settlement populations that are demographically and socially plausible, and detailed models of social mechanisms that can produce and maintain realistic textures of social structure and dynamics over time. The simulation engine has broad applicability and is also being used to address modern problems such as agroeconomic sustainability in Southeast Asia. This article describes the simulation framework and presents results of initial studies, highlighting some social system representations.
This paper presents a model, using concepts from artificial neural networks, that explains how small rural communities make decisions that affect access to potable freshwater. Field observations ...indicate that social relationships as well as individual goals and perceptions of decision makers have a strong influence on decisions that are made by community councils. Our work identifies three types of agents, which we designate as alpha, beta, and gamma agents. We address how gamma agents affect decisions made by community councils in passing resolutions that benefit a village's collective access to clean freshwater. The model, which we call the Agent Types Model (ATM), demonstrates the effects of social interactions, corporate influence, and agent-specific factors that determine choices for agents. Data from two different villages in rural Alaska and several parameter sensitivity tests are applied to the model. Results demonstrate that minimizing the social significance and agent-specific factors affecting gamma agents' negative compliance increases the likelihood that communities adopt measures promoting potable freshwater access. The significance of this work demonstrates which types of communities are potentially more socially vulnerable or resilient to social-ecological change affecting water supplies. Adapted from the source document.
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