Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other ...putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
Migrant birds face a number of threats throughout their annual cycle, including persecution, collision with energy infrastructure, and habitat and climate change. A key challenge for the conservation ...of migrants is the identification of important habitat, including migratory concentration areas, because species survival rates may be determined by events in geographically very limited areas. Remote‐tracking technology is facilitating the identification of such critical habitat, although the strategic identification of important sites and incorporation of such knowledge in conservation planning remains limited. We tracked 45 individuals of an endangered, soaring migrant (Egyptian vulture Neophron percnopterus), over 75 complete migrations that traversed three continents along the Red Sea Flyway. We summarize and contextualize migration statistics by season and age class, including migration start, midpoint, and end dates, as well as linear and cumulative migration distance, migration duration and speed, and route straightness. Then, using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models, we quantified space use to identify the most important migratory bottlenecks and high‐use areas on the flyway. These areas each accounted for < 5% of the overall movement range of the tracked birds, yet > 20% of all tracks passed through bottlenecks, and > 50% of the overall vulture time spent on migration fell within high‐use areas. The most important sites were located at the southeastern Red Sea coast and Bab‐el‐Mandeb Strait (Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Djibouti), the Suez Canal zone (Egypt), and the Gulf of Iskenderun (Turkey). Discouragingly however, none of the area within the major migratory bottlenecks was protected and < 13% of the high‐use areas were protected. This demonstrates a very concerning gap in the protected area network for migratory soaring birds along the Red Sea Flyway. Because reducing threats at migratory concentrations can be a very efficient approach to protect populations, our work provides clear guidelines where conservation investment is urgently needed to benefit as many as 35 migratory soaring‐bird species that regularly use the Red Sea Flyway.
Supplementing vulture populations with carcasses disposed at feeding stations is a common management and conservation practice worldwide. However, there is a lack of knowledge on the dependence of ...large vultures on the supplementary feeding stations (SFS) in areas with high abundance of natural food. We tagged 11 Griffon Vultures (
Gyps fulvus
, Hablizl 1783) with GSM/GPS transmitters in the Eastern Rhodopes, Bulgaria and studied the seasonal dynamic of feedings at SFS and at occasional carcasses found in the field. We used combination of remote sensing and field inspections to identify the vulture feeding events. Our results show that most of the feeding events occurred at occasional carcasses found in the wild (77.4%), whereas only 22.6% were at SFS, but high seasonal variation was observed. Vulture’s reliance on feeding stations was lowest in summer (19.82 ± 7.8%) and highest in winter when 56.5 ± 16.1% of the feedings were at the SFS. Griffon Vultures travelled longer daily distances in days feeding in the wild compared to days when they were not feeding or were visiting SFS. Our study indicates that in habitats with high abundance of natural food (free-range livestock and game), vultures tend to actively forage and use feeding stations as supplemental sources of food, mostly during long periods of adverse weather or in winter when foraging conditions are worse and natural food is less abundant.
One of the primary goals of conservation translocation programs should be the maintenance of both population demographic stability and genetic diversity. Here, we provide genetic management ...recommendations to inform a population reinforcement of the declining Egyptian Vulture population in the Balkans. Specifically, we examined whether the number of released individuals is sufficient to prevent genetic diversity loss due to random genetic drift and what the origin of the individuals should be that comprise the captive breeding pool. To this aim, we estimated and assessed genetic diversity levels and genetic structure of Egyptian Vulture populations across much of the species’ range using both neutral and non-neutral candidate loci involved in migration. We then evaluated the effects of the currently proposed population management scheme and candidate source populations on retaining allelic diversity. Our results show low differentiation values among populations and absence of genetic structure which point to past high gene flow. Furthermore, there was no predicted significant impact of different source populations on the genetic diversity of the recipient Balkan population. We also found that the declining Egyptian Vulture population in the Balkans still retains high levels of genetic diversity and therefore genetic diversity restoration is not currently needed. However, without any management, diversity is likely to decrease fast because of increased genetic drift as the population size continues to decline. Population reinforcement with nine birds per year for 20 years would provide sufficient demographic support for the population to retain > 85% of rare allelic diversity. Birds originating from the Balkans would ensure ecological and behavioral similarity and thus would be the best option for reinforcement. Nevertheless, our results demonstrate that to prevent further population contraction and loss of adaptive alleles, releasing individuals of different origin would also be appropriate.
Disentangling individual-and population-level variation in migratory movements is necessary for understanding migration at the species level. However, very few studies have analyzed these patterns ...across large portions of species' distributions. We compiled a large telemetry dataset on the globally endangered Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus (94 individuals, 188 completed migratory journeys), tracked across ∼70% of the species' global range, to analyze spatial and temporal variability of migratory movements within and among individuals and populations. We found high migratory connectivity at large spatial scales (i.e., different subpopulations showed little overlap in wintering areas), but very diffuse migratory connectivity within subpopulations, with wintering ranges up to 4,000 km apart for birds breeding in the same region and each subpopulation visiting up to 28 countries (44 in total). Additionally, Egyptian Vultures exhibited a high level of variability at the subpopulation level and flexibility at the individual level in basic migration parameters. Subpopulations differed significantly in travel distance and straightness of migratory movements, while differences in migration speed and duration differed as much between seasons and among individuals within subpopulations as between subpopulations. The total distances of the migrations completed by individuals from the Balkans and Caucasus were up to twice as long and less direct than those in Western Europe, and consequently were longer in duration, despite faster migration speeds. These differences appear to be largely attributable to more numerous and wider geographic barriers (water bodies) along the eastern flyway. We also found that adult spring migrations to Western Europe and the Balkans were longer and slower than fall migrations. We encourage further research to assess the underlying mechanisms for these differences and the extent to which environmental change could affect Egyptian Vulture movement ecology and population trends.
The European population of Black Kites of the nominate subspecies
Milvus migrans migrans
(Boddaert, 1783) is estimated at 81,200–109,000 pairs. The birds winter in Africa but their natal dispersal ...remains largely unstudied. Here, we analyze the behavior of 25 GPS-tracked Black Kites tagged from 2014 until 2018 using GPS/GSM telemetry devices from 16 nests in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. We calculated juvenile Black Kite post-fledging areas (PFA) using Kernel density estimations 95% (KDE95) and minimum convex polygons 95% (MCP95). Our results revealed that the average occupied PFA for juvenile birds was 2.8 km
2
(range 0.006–20.1 km
2
) as KDE95 and 0.3 km
2
(range 0.07–1.35 km
2
) as MCP95. Birds left PFA from 29 July to 30 August (median 12 August). Two main migration routes were used by tagged birds, namely a southwestern European route crossing the Strait of Gibraltar and a southeastern European route to Turkey and the Middle East. Migration routes which directly crossed the Mediterranean Sea to Africa from Italy and Greece were rarely used. Winter quarters were located in sub-Saharan Africa throughout the belt from Senegal and Gambia to Ethiopia. Four Black Kites remained to stay in tropical Africa during their first summer, seven birds moved north but to substantially lower altitudes (in Morocco, Spain and Turkey) then those in their natal areas. During the second year, Black Kites wintered again in the tropical part of sub-Saharan Africa, summer quarters were located north from the winter quarters, three birds stayed throughout the summer in Africa, three in south to central Europe, one in Turkey and one in northwestern Russia. One 3-year-old bird (fourth calendar year) attempted to nest but it was unsuccessful and occurred 15.6 km from the natal nest. Temporary settlement areas (TSA) were commonly used by Black Kites during migratory routes, winter and summer quarters. The average home range size of TSA was 233.8 km
2
(range 0.99–852 km
2
) as KDE95 and 140.2 km
2
(range 0.1–1054 km
2
) as MCP95. As usual, siblings used the same migratory routes and also shared the same winter and summer quarters. Our findings suggest that the genetic background of the migration behavior of Black Kites is strong.
Effective nature conservation in human-dominated landscapes requires a deep understanding of human behaviors, perceptions and values. Human-wildlife conflicts represent relatively well-studied, ...global-scale conservation challenges. In Africa, vulture populations are collapsing as they fall victim to poison used by livestock farmers to kill predators, but our understanding of the prevalence of this practice is still very poor. We gathered data on the prevalence of poison use in Namibia by means of questionnaires completed by commercial farmers. The data were collected and analyzed with ad-hoc quantitative methods. We quantified prevalence of poison use, determined factors associated with this practice and derived a map of its prevalence. We found that 20% of commercial farmers in Namibia used poison; farmers that owned high numbers of small stock and on large farms, and those who had suffered high livestock losses to predators, were most likely to admit to using poison. We pinpoint areas of high prevalence of reported poison use, which are largely concentrated in the south of the country. Furthermore, we report a generally positive perception of commercial farmers towards vultures, which may indicate future potential to implement bottom-up approaches for vulture conservation. Overall, the findings have important implications for prioritizing efforts to effectively tackle the African vulture crisis and preserve healthy ecosystems for the wellbeing of humans and wildlife.
•Poison is used by livestock farmers to control predators•We show that 20% of Namibia farmers use poison•Farmers with small stock and large farms more frequently use poison•Poison use is most frequent in the south of Namibia•The results have implications for scavenger conservation
Roosting behaviour during the pre-breeding season is an important part of the Eurasian Griffon Vulture Gyps fulvus life cycle. We demonstrate the importance of roost site selection and its relation ...to the breeding distribution of the Griffon Vulture.
To quantify the distribution, population size, age structure and roosting site selection of the Eurasian Griffon Vulture in the Eastern Rhodopes, Bulgaria during the pre-breeding season.
We used correlation analysis and generalized linear mixed models to examine the relationship between the vultures use of roost sites and their distribution in relation to topographic variables. We additionally used GPS telemetry data from 25 birds to study and compare the use of roosting cliffs.
During the 14-year survey period the number of roosting Eurasian Griffon Vultures gradually increased from 25 birds in 2005 to 201 in 2018. We recorded 16 cliffs used by 124 ± 51 (sd) vultures for roosting. The number of non-adult vultures increased by 25% and reached 41% of all the recorded birds in the last year of the survey. We found that the number of breeding pairs correlated positively with the number of roosting vultures (r
= 0.85) and that roosting cliff selection was determined by cliff length and height, distance to the nearest feeding site, and whether the cliff was used for breeding.
Cliffs regularly used by vultures in the pre-breeding season, were afterwards used for breeding. Thus, cliffs used in the pre-breeding season for roosting could be used as an index for the breeding distribution of the species, and should be protected to sustain the species in and out of the breeding season.
Many populations of long‐distance migrants are declining and there is increasing evidence that declines may be caused by factors operating outside the breeding season. Among the four vulture species ...breeding in the western Palaearctic, the species showing the steepest population decline, the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus, is a long‐distance migrant wintering in Africa. However, the flyways and wintering areas of the species are only known for some populations, and without knowledge of where mortality occurs, effective conservation management is not possible. We tracked 19 juvenile Egyptian Vultures from the declining breeding population on the Balkan Peninsula between 2010 and 2014 to estimate survival and identify important migratory routes and wintering areas for this species. Mortality during the first autumn migration was high (monthly survival probability 0.75) but mortality during migration was exclusively associated with suboptimal navigation. All birds from western breeding areas and three birds from central and eastern breeding areas attempted to fly south over the Mediterranean Sea, but only one in 10 birds survived this route, probably due to stronger tailwind. All eight birds using the migratory route via Turkey and the Middle East successfully completed their first autumn migration. Of 14 individual and environmental variables examined to explain why juvenile birds did or did not successfully complete their first migration, the natal origin of the bird was the most influential. We speculate that in a declining population with fewer experienced adults, an increasing proportion of juvenile birds are forced to migrate without conspecific guidance, leading to high mortality as a consequence of following sub‐optimal migratory routes. Juvenile Egyptian Vultures wintered across a vast range of the Sahel and eastern Africa, and had large movement ranges with core use areas at intermediate elevations in savannah, cropland or desert. Two birds were shot in Africa, where several significant threats exist for vultures at continental scales. Given the broad distribution of the birds and threats, effective conservation in Africa will be challenging and will require long‐term investment. We recommend that in the short term, more efficient conservation could target narrow migration corridors in southern Turkey and the Middle East, and known congregation sites in African wintering areas.
One approach to stabilise small and declining populations is to breed individuals in captivity and release them into the wild to reinforce existing populations while working to reduce threats. ...Population reinforcement programmes require long‐term commitments to be successful and can divert limited resources from other conservation measures. A rigorous evaluation whether reinforcement can stabilise a population is therefore essential to justify investments.
Many migratory species incur high mortality during their first migration, and releasing captive‐bred birds at an older age may therefore benefit reinforcement programmes for migratory birds. We examine whether a small and declining population of a long‐distance migratory raptor—the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus—can be stabilised using population reinforcement that reduces mortality during the first migration. We used an integrated population model to evaluate realistic reinforcement and survival improvement scenarios to estimate how many captive‐bred birds would need to be released to stabilise the population.
Survival probability of wild juveniles during their first year (0.296; 95% CI 0.234–0.384) was too low for a stable population (population growth rate 0.949; 95% CI 0.940–0.956), but captive‐bred juveniles released in their second calendar year had improved survival (0.566; 95% CI 0.265–0.862) during their first year in the wild.
Reinforcement of 15 birds per year for 30 years was insufficient to achieve a neutral or positive population growth rate. However, reinforcement reduced the probability of extinction by 2049 from 48% without reinforcement to <1% if 12 or more birds were released every year for 30 years. A 6% increase in annual survival probability would likely lead to a stable population without any reinforcement.
Synthesis and applications. Although releasing captive‐bred birds can reduce high juvenile mortality during first migration and assist in postponing local extinction, further improvements of survival in the wild are required to safeguard a migratory population where threats in the wild will persist for decades despite management.
Translated Περίληψη
Μία προσέγγιση που στοχεύει στη σταθεροποίηση μικρών και μειούμενων πληθυσμών είναι η αναπαραγωγή ατόμων σε αιχμαλωσία και στη συνέχεια η απελευθέρωσή τους στην φύση για την ενδυνάμωση των υπαρχόντων πληθυσμών, ενώ παράλληλα συνεχίζονται οι διαχειριστικές δράσεις που στοχεύουν στον περιορισμό των απειλών. Τέτοια προγράμματα ενδυνάμωσης πληθυσμών, για να είναι επιτυχημένα, απαιτούν μακροπρόθεσμη δέσμευση και μπορούν να εκτρέψουν τους ήδη περιορισμένους πόρους από άλλα μέτρα διατήρησης. Είναι επομένως απαραίτητη μια διεξοδική αξιολόγηση του κατά πόσον οι δράσεις ενδυνάμωσης μπορούν να οδηγήσουν έναν πληθυσμό σε σταθεροποίηση, έτσι ώστε πιθανές επενδύσεις σε τέτοιες δράσεις να είναι δικαιολογημένες.
Πολλά μεταναστευτικά είδη πουλιών υφίστανται υψηλή θνησιμότητα κατά το πρώτο τους ταξίδι οπότε η απελευθέρωση ατόμων που έχουν αναπαραχθεί σε αιχμαλωσία αφού έχουν φτάσει σε μεγαλύτερη ηλικία μπορεί να ωφελήσει προγράμματα ενδυνάμωσης που στοχεύουν πληθυσμούς μεταναστευτικών ειδών. Εδώ, εξετάζουμε εάν ένας μικρός και μειούμενος πληθυσμός ενός μεταναστευτικού είδους αρπακτικού ‐ του Ασπροπάρη (Neophron percnopterus) ‐ μπορεί να σταθεροποιηθεί μέσω δράσεων ενίσχυσης που μειώνουν τη θνησιμότητα κατά την πρώτη μετανάστευση. Χρησιμοποιήσαμε πληθυσμιακά μοντέλα για να αξιολογήσουμε ρεαλιστικά σενάρια ενδυνάμωσης και αύξησης της επιβίωσης ώστε να εκτιμήσουμε πόσα άτομα που έχουν αναπαραχθεί σε αιχμαλωσία θα πρέπει να απελευθερωθούν για να επιτευχθεί η σταθεροποίηση του πληθυσμού.
Η πιθανότητα επιβίωσης των άγριων νεαρών ατόμων κατά το πρώτο έτος της ζωής τους (0,296, 95% CI 0,234 – 0,384) ήταν πολύ χαμηλή για να οδηγήσει σε έναν σταθερό πληθυσμό (ρυθμός αύξησης πληθυσμού 0,949, 95% CI 0,940 –0,956), αλλά τα νεαρά άτομα που είχαν αναπαραχθεί σε αιχμαλωσία και απελευθερώθηκαν στον δεύτερο χρόνο της ζωής τους, έδειξαν αυξημένη επιβίωση (0,566, 95% CI 0,265 – 0,886) κατά τη διάρκεια του πρώτου έτους τους στη φύση.
Η ενδυνάμωση του πληθυσμού με την απελευθέρωση 15 πουλιών ετησίως για 30 χρόνια δεν επαρκεί για την επίτευξη είτε σταθερού είτε θετικού ρυθμού αύξησης του πληθυσμού. Ωστόσο, η δράση ενδυνάμωσης μπορεί να μειώσει την πιθανότητα εξαφάνισης από 48% σε λιγότερο από 1% έως το 2049, εάν 12 ή περισσότερα πουλιά απελευθερώνονταν κάθε χρόνο για 30 χρόνια. Επίσης, εάν η ετήσια πιθανότητα επιβίωσης αυξανόταν κατά 8% θα οδηγούσε σε έναν σταθερό πληθυσμό χωρίς να χρειάζεται καμία δράση ενίσχυσης.
Σύνθεση και εφαρμογές. Παρόλο που η ενδυνάμωση του πληθυσμού μπορεί να μειώσει την υψηλή θνησιμότητα των νεαρών ατόμων κατά την πρώτη τους μετανάστευση και να βοηθήσει στην αναστολή μιας τοπικής εξαφάνισης, απαιτείται περαιτέρω βελτίωση της επιβίωσης τους στην φύση για την διασφάλιση ενός μεταναστευτικού πληθυσμού ο οποίος θα συνεχίσει να αντιμετωπίζει απειλές για δεκαετίες παρά τη διαχείριση.
Although releasing captive‐bred birds can reduce high juvenile mortality during first migration and assist in postponing local extinction, further improvements of survival in the wild are required to safeguard a migratory population where threats in the wild will persist for decades despite management.
PDF
