Abstract
Illegal wildlife trade is one of the major threats to Neotropical psittacids, with nearly 28% of species targeted for the illegal pet trade. We analysed the most comprehensive data set on ...illegal wildlife trade currently available for Venezuela, from various sources, to provide a quantitative assessment of the magnitude, scope and detectability of the trade in psittacids at the national level. We calculated a specific offer index (SO) based on the frequency of which each species was offered for sale. Forty-seven species of psittacids were traded in Venezuela during 1981–2015, of which 17 were non-native. At least 641,675 individuals were traded, with an overall extraction rate of 18,334 individuals per year (35 years of accumulated reports).
Amazona ochrocephala
was the most frequently detected species (SO = 3.603), with the highest extraction rate (10,544 individuals per year), followed by
Eupsittula pertinax
(SO = 1.357) and
Amazona amazonica
(SO = 1.073).
Amazona barbadensis
,
Ara ararauna
and
Ara chloropterus
were the fourth most frequently detected species (SO = 0.564–0.615). Eleven species were involved principally in domestic trade (> 60% of records). Our approach could be the first step in developing a national monitoring programme to inform national policy on the trade in psittacids. Patterns and numbers provided may be used to update the official list of threatened species, and could also be used in planning conservation actions.
Decree Law 701 (DL 701) of 1974 and its latermodifications, provides subsides for afforestation costs as well as tax reductions (Lara & Veblen 1993), a factor that has driven the expansion of ...plantations with exotic species (largely Pinus radiata), the replacement of native forests and a reduction in biodiversity (Lara & Veblen 1993; Clapp 2001).
Although most often considered independently, subsistence hunting, domestic trade, and international trade as components of illegal wildlife use (IWU) may be spatially correlated. Understanding how ...and where subsistence and commercial uses may co-occur has important implications for the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. We analyzed patterns in the joint geographical distribution of illegal commercial and subsistence use of multiple wildlife species in Venezuela and evaluated whether available data were sufficient to provide accurate estimates of the magnitude, scope, and detectability of IWU. We compiled records of illegal subsistence hunting and trade from several sources and fitted a random-forest classification model to predict the spatial distribution oflWUs. From 1969 to 2014, 404 species and 8,340,921 specimens were involved in IWU, for a mean extraction rate of 185,354 individuals/year. Birds were the most speciose group involved (248 spp.), but reptiles had the highest extraction rates (126,414 individuals/year vs. 3,133 individuals/year for birds). Eighty-eight percent of international trade records spatially overlapped with domestic trade, especially in the north and along the coast but also in western inland areas. The distribution of domestic trade was broadly distributed along roads, suggesting that domestic trade does not depend on large markets in cities. Seventeen percent of domestic trade records overlapped with subsistence hunting, but the spatial distribution of this overlap covered a much larger area than between commercial uses. Domestic trade seems to respond to demand from rural more than urban communities. Our approach will be useful for understanding how IWU works at national scales in other parts of the world. Aunque muchas veces son considerados independientemente, la caza de subsistencia y el comercio doméstico e internacional como componentes del uso ilegal de vida silvestre (UIVS) pueden estar correlacionados espacialmente. Entender cómo y dónde los usos comerciales y de subsistencia pueden co-ocurrir tiene implicaciones importantes para el diseño y la implementación de acciones efectivas de conservación. Analizamos los patrones en la distribución geográfica conjunta del uso ilegal comercial o por subsistencia de múltiples especies de vida silvestre en Venezuela y evaluamos si los datos disponibles eran suficientes para proporcionar estimaciones correctas de la magnitud, el alcance y la detectabilidad del UIVS. Compilamos los registros del comercio y la caza de subsistencia ilegales de varias fuentes y acoplamos un modelo de bosques aleatorios para predecir la distribución espacial del UIVS. De 1969 a 2014, 404 especies y 8,340,921 especímenes estuvieron involucrados en UIVS, para una tasa de extracción media de 185,354 individuos/año. Las aves fueron el grupo involucrado más rico en especies (248 spp.), pero los reptiles tuvieron las tasas de extracción más altas (126, 414 individuos/año contra 3,133 individuos/año para las aves). El 88% de los registros del comercio internacional se solapó espacialmente con el comercio doméstico, especialmente en el norte y a lo largo de la costa, pero también en las áreas occidentales tierra adentro. La extensión del comercio doméstico estuvo distribuida ampliamente a lo largo de las carreteras, lo que sugiere que el comercio doméstico no depende de un gran mercado en las ciudades. El 17% de los registros de comercio doméstico se solapó con la caza por subsistencia, pero la distribución espacial de este solapamiento cubrió un área mucho mayor que entre los usos comerciales. El comercio doméstico parece responder a la demanda rural más que a la demanda de las comunidades urbanas. Nuestra estrategia será útil para entender cómo funcionan los UIVS a escala nacional en otras partes del mundo.
An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria ...provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world's ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of biodiversity
Background
18
F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography/computed tomography (
18
FFDG-PET/CT) has been implemented sporadically in hospital settings as the standard of care examination for ...recurrent breast cancer. We aimed to explore the clinical impact of implementing
18
FFDG-PET/CT for patients with clinically suspected recurrent breast cancer and validate the diagnostic accuracy.
Methods
Women with suspected distant recurrent breast cancer were prospectively enrolled in the study between September 2017 and August 2019.
18
FFDG-PET/CT was performed, and the appearance of incidental benign and malignant findings was registered. Additional examinations, complications, and the final diagnosis were registered to reflect the clinical consequence of such findings. The diagnostic accuracy of
18
FFDG-PET/CT as a stand-alone examination was analyzed. Biopsy and follow-up were used as a reference standard.
Results
18
FFDG-PET/CT reported breast cancer metastases in 72 of 225 women (32.0%), and metastases were verified by biopsy in 52 (52/225, 23.1%). Prior probability and posterior probability of a positive test for suspected metastatic cancer and incidental malignancies were 27%/85% and 4%/20%, respectively. Suspected malignant incidental findings were reported in 46 patients (46/225, 20.4%), leading to further examinations and final detection of nine synchronous cancers (9/225, 4.0%). These cancers originated from the lung, thyroid, skin, pancreas, peritoneum, breast, kidney, one was malignant melanoma, and one was hematological cancer. False-positive incidental malignant findings were examined in 37/225 patients (16.4%), mainly in the colon (
n
= 12) and thyroid gland (
n
= 12). Ten incidental findings suspicious for benign disease were suggested by
18
FFDG-PET/CT, and further examinations resulted in the detection of three benign conditions requiring treatment. Sensitivity, specificity, and AUC-ROC for diagnosing distant metastases were 1.00 (0.93–1.0), 0.88 (0.82–0.92), and 0.98 (95% CI 0.97–0.99), respectively.
Conclusion
18
FFDG-PET/CT provided a high posterior probability of positive test, and a negative test was able to rule out distant metastases in women with clinically suspected recurrent breast cancer. One-fifth of patients examined for incidental findings detected on
18
FFDG-PET/CT were diagnosed with clinically relevant conditions. Further examinations of false-positive incidental findings in one of six women should be weighed against the high accuracy for diagnosing metastatic breast cancer.
Trial registration
Clinical.Trials.gov. NCT03358589. Registered 30 November 2017—Retrospectively registered,
http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov
This study aimed to compare CE-CT and 2-
FFDG-PET/CT for response monitoring metastatic breast cancer (MBC). The primary objective was to predict progression-free and disease-specific survival for ...responders vs. non-responders on CE-CT and 2-
FFDG-PET/CT. The secondary objective was to assess agreement between response categorization for the two modalities. Treatment response in women with MBC was monitored prospectively by simultaneous CE-CT and 2-
FFDG-PET/CT, allowing participants to serve as their own controls. The standardized response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST 1.1) and PET response criteria in solid tumors (PERCIST) were used for response categorization. For prediction of progression-free and disease-specific survival, treatment response was dichotomized into responders (partial and complete response) and non-responders (stable and progressive disease) at the first follow-up scan. Progression-free survival was defined as the time from baseline until disease progression or death from any cause. Disease-specific survival was defined as the time from baseline until breast cancer-specific death. Agreement between response categorization for both modalities was analyzed for all response categories and responders vs. non-responders. At the first follow-up, tumor response was reported more often by 2-
FFDG-PET/CT than CE-CT, with only fair agreement on response categorization between the two modalities (weighted Kappa 0.28). Two-year progression-free survival for responders vs. non-responders by CE-CT was 54.2% vs. 46.0%, compared with 59.1% vs. 14.3% by 2-
FFDG-PET/CT. Correspondingly, 2-year disease-specific survival were 83.3% vs. 77.8% for CE-CT and 84.6% vs. 61.9% for 2-
FFDG-PET/CT. Tumor response on 2-
FFDG-PET/CT was significantly associated with progression-free (HR: 3.49, P < 0.001) and disease-specific survival (HR 2.35, P = 0.008), while no association was found for tumor response on CE-CT. In conclusion, 2-
FFDG-PET/CT appears a better predictor of progression-free and disease-specific survival than CE-CT when used to monitor metastatic breast cancer. In addition, we found low concordance between response categorization between the two modalities.
Clinical.
gov. NCT03358589. Registered 30/11/2017-Retrospectively registered, http://www.
gov.
We compared overall survival for metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients monitored with CE-CT, FDG-PET/CT or a combination of them in an observational setting.
Patients with biopsy-verified ...(recurrent or de novo) MBC (n = 300) who were treated at Odense university hospital (Denmark) and response monitored with FDG-PET/CT (n = 83), CE-CT (n = 144), or a combination of these (n = 73) were followed until 2019. Survival was compared between the scan groups, and were adjusted for clinico-histopathological variables representing potential confounders in a Cox proportional-hazard regression model.
The study groups were mostly comparable regarding baseline characteristics, but liver metastases were reported more frequently in CE-CT group (38.9%) than in FDG-PET/CT group (19.3%) and combined group (24.7%). Median survival was 30.0 months for CE-CT group, 44.3 months for FDG-PET/CT group and 54.0 months for Combined group. Five-year survival rates were significantly higher for FDG-PET/CT group (41.9%) and combined group (43.3%), than for CE-CT group (15.8%). Using the CE-CT group as reference, the hazard ratio was 0.44 (95% CI: 0.29-0.68, P = 0.001) for the FDG-PET/CT group after adjusting for baseline characteristics. FDG-PET/CT detected the first progression 4.7 months earlier than CE-CT, leading to earlier treatment change.
In this single-center, observational study, patients with metastatic breast cancer who were response monitored with FDG-PET/CT alone or in combination with CE-CT had longer overall survival than patients monitored with CE-CT alone. Confirmation of these findings by further, preferably randomised clinical trials is warranted.
We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of 2-
FFDG-PET/CT compared to CE-CT for response monitoring in metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients. The study included 300 biopsy-verified MBC patients treated ...at Odense University Hospital (Denmark). CE-CT was used in 144 patients, 83 patients underwent 2-
FFDG-PET/CT, and 73 patients received a combination of both. Hospital resource-based costs (2007-2019) were adjusted to the 2019 level. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated by comparing average costs per patient and gained survival with CE-CT. During a median follow-up of 33.0 months, patients in the 2-
FFDG-PET/CT group had more short admissions (median 6 vs. 2) and fewer overnight admissions (5 vs. 12) compared to the CE-CT group. The mean total cost per patient was €91,547 for CE-CT, €83,965 for 2-
FFDG-PET/CT, and €165,784 for the combined group. The ICER for 2-
FFDG-PET/CT compared to CE-CT was €-527/month, indicating gaining an extra month of survival at a lower cost (€527). 2-
FFDG-PET/CT was more cost-effective in patients with favorable prognostic factors (oligometastatic or estrogen receptor-positive disease), while CE-CT was more cost-effective in poor prognosis patients (liver/lung metastases or performance status ≥ 2 at baseline). In conclusion, our study suggests that 2-
FFDG-PET/CT is a cost-effective modality for response monitoring in metastatic breast cancer.
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