Context.
The characterization of the differential rotation of the extended corona is still lacking conclusive results about the actual rotation rate profiles, and it is also expected to vary along ...the solar cycle. While some studies supported the quasi-rigidity of coronal rotation, others have found evidence of differential rotation to occur.
Aims.
For the purpose of investigating the differential rotation of the solar corona, we analyzed ultraviolet (UV) spectral line observations acquired on both the east and west limbs at 1.7
R
⊙
by the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) on-board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory during the solar minimum preceding solar cycle 23. To obtain a reliable and statistically robust picture of the rotational profile, we used a set of simultaneous 400 day long spectral line intensities of five different spectral lines: O
VI
1032 Å, O
VI
1037 Å, Si
XII
499 Å, Si
XII
521 Å, and H
I
Ly
α
1216 Å, which are routinely observed by UVCS.
Methods.
The data were analyzed by means of two different techniques: the generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram and a multivariate data-adaptive technique called multichannel singular spectrum analysis. Among many other positive outcomes, this latter method is unique in its ability to recognize common oscillatory modes between the five time series observed at both limbs.
Results.
The latitudinal rotation profile obtained in this work emphasizes that the low-latitude region of the UV corona (about ±20° from the solar equator) exhibits differential rotation, while the higher-latitude structures do rotate quasi-rigidly. Moreover, in contrast to previous results obtained using only O
VI
1032 Å data over a 365 day time interval during solar minimum activity, the alleged north-south rotational asymmetry of the UV corona, if existent, is much less pronounced.
Conclusions.
The differential rotation rate of the solar corona as evinced at low-latitudes is consistent with the rotational profile of the near-surface convective zone of the Sun, suggesting that the rotation of the corona at 1.7
R
⊙
is linked to intermediate-scale magnetic bipole structures anchored near 0.99
R
⊙
. The quasi-rigid rotation rate found at mid and high latitudes is instead attributed to the influence of large-scale coronal structures linked to the rigidly rotating coronal holes. We further suggest that the methodology presented in this paper could represent a milestone for future investigations on differential rotation rates when dealing with simultaneous multiwavelength data.
We report the detection of multiple quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs) observed during the flaring activity of KIC 8414845, a young, active solar-type star observed by the
Kepler
mission launched by ...NASA. We analyzed the QQP signal using a data-driven, nonparametric method called singular spectrum analysis (SSA), which has never been utilized previously for analyzing solar or stellar QPPs. Because it is not based on a prescribed choice of basis functions, SSA is particularly suitable for analyzing nonstationary, nonlinear signals such as those observed in QPPs during major flares. The analysis has revealed that the apparent anharmonic shape of the QPP in this superflare results from a superposition of two intrinsic modes of periods of 49 min and 86 min, which display quasi-harmonic behaviors and different modulation patterns. The two reconstructed signals are consistent with slow-mode transverse and/or longitudinal magnetohydrodynamic oscillations excited in a coronal loop inducing periodic releases of flaring energy in a nearby loop through a mechanism of repetitive reconnection. The peculiar amplitude modulation of the two modes evinced by SSA favors the interpretation of the observed QPP pattern as due to the excitation in a coronal loop of the second harmonic of a standing slow-mode magnetoacoustic oscillation and a global kink oscillation periodically triggering magnetic reconnection in a nearby loop. Concurrent interpretations cannot however be ruled out on the basis of the available data.
ABSTRACT
Predicting the solar activity of upcoming cycles is crucial nowadays to anticipate potentially adverse space weather effects on the Earth’s environment produced by coronal transients and ...traveling interplanetary disturbances. The latest advances in deep learning techniques provide new paradigms to obtain effective prediction models that allow to forecast in detail the evolution of cosmogeophysical time series. Because of the underlying complexity of the dynamo mechanism in the solar interior that is at the origin of the solar cycle phenomenon, the predictions offered by state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms represent valuable tools for our understanding of the cycle progression. As a plus, Bayesian deep learning is particularly compelling thanks to recent advances in the field that provide improvements in both accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to classical techniques. In this work, a deep learning long short-term memory model is employed to predict the complete profile of Solar Cycle 25, thus forecasting also the advent of the next solar minimum. A rigorous uncertainty estimation of the predicted sunspot number is obtained by applying a Bayesian approach. Two different model validation techniques, namely the Train-Test split and the time series k-fold cross-validation, have been implemented and compared, giving compatible results. The forecasted peak amplitude is lower than that of the preceding cycle. Solar Cycle 25 will last 10.6 ± 0.7 yr, reaching its maximum in the middle of the year 2024. The next solar minimum is predicted in 2030 and will be as deep as the previous one.
ABSTRACT
Two meteorite pieces have been recovered in Italy, near the town of Cavezzo (Modena), on 2020 January 4th. The associated fireball was observed on the evening of New Year’s Day 2020 by eight ...all-sky cameras of the PRISMA fireball network, a partner of FRIPON. The computed trajectory had an inclination angle of approximately 68° and a velocity at infinity of 12.8 km s−1. Together with the relatively low terminal height, estimated as 21.5 km, those values were indicating the significant possibility of a meteorite dropping event, as additionally confirmed by the non-zero residual total mass. The strewn-field was computed taking into account the presence of two bright light flashes, revealing that the meteoroid had been very likely subject to fragmentation. Three days after the event, two samples, weighing 3.1 and 52.2 g, were collected as a result of a dedicated field search and thanks to the involvement of the local people. The two pieces were immediately recognized as freshly fallen fragments of meteorite. The computed orbital elements, compared with the ones of known Near-Earth Asteroids from the NEODyS database, are compatible with one asteroid only; 2013 VC10. The estimated original mass of the meteoroid, 3.5 kg, and size, approximately 13 cm, is so far the smallest among the current 35 cases in which meteorites were recovered from precise strewn-field computation thanks to observational data. This result demonstrates the effectiveness of accurate processing of fireball network data even on challenging events generated by small size meteoroids.
Context.
In meteor physics, the luminous efficiency
τ
is used to convert the meteor’s magnitude to the corresponding meteoroid’s mass. However, a lack of sufficiently accurate verification methods or ...adequate laboratory tests mean that discussions around this parameter are a subject of controversy.
Aims.
In this work, we aim to use meteor data obtained by the Fireball Recovery and InterPlanetary Observation to calculate the luminous efficiencies of the recorded meteors. We also show the limitations of the methods presented herein.
Methods.
Deceleration-based formulas were used to calculate the masses of the pre-atmospheric meteoroids. These can in turn be compared to the meteor brightnesses to assess the luminous efficiencies of the recorded objects. Fragmentation of the meteoroids is not considered within this model. Good measurements of the meteor deceleration are required.
Results.
We find
τ
-values, as well as the shape change coefficients, of 294 meteors and fireballs with determined masses in the range of 10
−6
–100 kg. The derived
τ
-values have a median of
τ
median
= 2.17%. Most of them are of the order of 0.1–10%. We present how our values are obtained, compare them with data reported in the literature, and discuss several methods. A dependence of
τ
on the pre-atmospheric velocity of the meteor,
v
e
, is noticeable with a relation of τ = 0.0023⋅
v
e
2.3
. Furthermore, a dependence of
τ
on the initial meteoroid mass,
M
e
, is found with negative linear behaviour in log–log space: τ = 0.48⋅
M
e
−0.47
.
Conclusions.
The higher luminous efficiency of fast meteors could be explained by the higher amount of energy released. Fast meteoroids produce additional emission lines that radiate more efficiently in specific wavelengths due to the appearance of the so-called second component of higher temperature. Furthermore, the negative dependence of
τ
on
M
e
implies that the radiation of smaller meteoroids is more efficient. The results of this study also show the limitations of the ablation-based model for the determination of the luminous efficiency.
Context.
The luminous efficiency,
τ
, can be used to compute the pre-atmospheric masses of meteoroids from corresponding recorded meteor brightnesses. The derivation of the luminous efficiency is ...non-trivial and is subject to biases and model assumptions. This has led to greatly varying results in the last decades of studies.
Aims.
The present paper aims to investigate how a reduction in various observational biases can be achieved to derive (more) reliable values for the luminous efficiency.
Methods.
A total of 281 meteors observed by the Fireball Recovery and InterPlanetary Observation Network (FRIPON) are studied. The luminous efficiencies of the events are computed using an ablation-based model. The relations of
τ
as a function of the pre-atmospheric meteoroid velocity,
v
e
, and mass,
M
e
, are studied. Various aspects that could render the method less valid, cause inaccuracies, or bias the results are investigated. On this basis, the best suitable meteors were selected for luminous efficiency computations.
Results.
The presented analysis shows the limits of the used method. The most influential characteristics that are necessary for reliable results for the
τ
computation were identified. We study the dependence of
τ
on the assumed meteoroid’s density,
ρ
, and include improved
ρ
-values for objects with identified meteoroid stream association. Based on the discovered individual biases and constraints we create a pre-debiased subset of 54 well-recorded events with a relative velocity change >80%, a final height <70 km, and a Knudsen number Kn < 0.01; this last value indicates that the events were observed in the continuum-flow regime. We find
τ
-values in the range between 0.012% and 1.1% for this pre-debiased subset and relations of
τ
to
v
e
and
M
e
of:
τ
=7.33⋅
v
e
−1.10
and
τ
=0.28⋅
M
e
−0.33
.
Conclusions.
The derived luminous efficiency of meteoroids depends on the assumed material density. Our results indicate that the applied debiasing method improves the analysis of
τ
from decelerated meteoroids. The underlying method is only valid for meteors in the continuum-flow regime. These events tend to have low end heights, large masses, and high deceleration.
Mini-EUSO is part of the JEM-EUSO program and operates on board the International Space Station (ISS). It is a UV-telescope with single-photon counting capability looking at nighttime downwards to ...the Earth through a nadir-facing UV-transparent window. As part of the pre-flight tests, the Mini-EUSO engineering model, a telescope with 1/9 of the original focal surface and a lens of 2.5 cm diameter, has been built and tested. Tests of the Mini-EUSO engineering model have been made in laboratory and in open-sky conditions. Laboratory tests have been performed at the TurLab facility, located at the Physics Department of the University of Turin, equipped with a rotating tank containing different types of materials and light sources. In this way, the configuration for the observation of the Earth from space was emulated, including the Mini-EUSO trigger schemes. In addition to the qualification and calibration tests, the Mini-EUSO engineering model has also been used to evaluate the possibility of using a JEM-EUSO-type detector for applications such as observation of space debris. Furthermore, observations in open-sky conditions allowed the studies of natural light sources such as stars, meteors, planets, and artificial light sources such as airplanes, satellites reflecting the sunlight, and city lights. Most of these targets could be detected also with Mini-EUSO. In this paper, the tests in laboratory and in open-sky conditions are reported, as well as the obtained results. In addition, the contribution that such tests provided to foresee and improve the performance of Mini-EUSO on board the ISS is discussed.
On 2014 October 30, a band-splitted type II radio burst associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) ...occurred over the southeast limb of the Sun. The fast expansion in all directions of the plasma front acted as a piston and drove a spherical fast shock ahead of it, whose outward progression was traced by simultaneous images obtained with the Nançay Radioheliograph (NRH). The geometry of the CME/shock event was recovered through 3D modeling, given the absence of concomitant stereoscopic observations, and assuming that the band-splitted type II burst was emitted at the intersection of the shock surface with two adjacent low-Alfvén speed coronal streamers. From the derived spatiotemporal evolution of the standoff distance between shock and CME leading edge, we were finally able to infer the magnetic field strength B in the inner corona. A simple radial profile of the form B(r) = (12.6 ± 2.5)r−4 nicely fits our results, together with previous estimates, in the range r = 1.1−2.0 R⊙.
More than three dozen submillisecond events of ELVES type (“elves”), which are the result of the interaction of the front of an electromagnetic pulse from a lightning discharge and the lower layer of ...the ionosphere, have been identified in the data of a UV Atmosphere orbital multichannel detector (Mini-EUSO). Each event has a characteristic annular glow pattern and occupies a significant part of the detector’s field of view, and the signal in a separate channel has an asymmetric profile with a pronounced peak. The distribution of peak times contains information about both the localization of the discharge and the altitude of the glow. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian (probabilistic) model for reconstructing ELVES events, implemented using probabilistic programming methods in PyMC-5. The capabilities of the model for determining the position of the discharge are shown using the example of several events. Methods for modifying the model to restore the discharge orientation and refine the glow height are outlined.
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