From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, ...the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes.
Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.
In the EU in 2014, 1 323 600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742 500 men and 581 100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100 000 men and 84.7/100 000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25–49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises.
Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250 000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes.
A decrease in cancer mortality has been reported in the United States, Europe, and other high-income regions during the last two decades. Whether similar trends apply to low-to-middle income ...countries—and globally—is unclear.
The aim of this descriptive study is to compare cancer mortality in all countries with high- or intermediate-quality data on death certificates according to the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database for the years 2000 through 2010. We included 60 countries in the analysis and calculated age-adjusted mortality rates for all cancer combined and for the commonest cancers worldwide: lung, stomach, breast, colorectal, uterine, and prostate.
A decrease in overall cancer mortality rate of ∼1% per year was observed in higher and lower income regions and in both sexes. In 2010, 696 000 cancer deaths were avoided on a global scale compared with 2000 rates (426 000 in men, 271 000 in women). However, the mortality of liver cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in females increased in many countries'.
The individual risk of dying from cancer decreased in all countries with reliable data. This decrease was chiefly due to favorable trends in the commonest specific cancers. Liver cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women, which show increasing mortality rates, constitute a priority for prevention and further research.
Estimated cancer mortality statistics were published for the years 2011 and 2012 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries.
Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models ...and the World Health Organization mortality and population database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized (world) mortality rates (ASRs) in 2013 from all cancers and selected cancers.
The 2013 predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU is 1 314 296 (737 747 men and 576 489 women). Between 2009 and 2013, all cancer ASRs are predicted to fall by 6% to 140.1/100 000 in men, and by 4% to 85.3/100 000 in women. The ASRs per 100 000 are 6.6 men and 2.9 women for stomach, 16.7 men and 9.5 women for intestines, 8.0 men and 5.5 women for pancreas, 37.1 men and 13.9 women for lung, 10.5 men for prostate, 14.6 women for breast, and 4.7 for uterine cancer, and 4.2 and 2.6 for leukaemia. Recent trends are favourable except for pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women.
Favourable trends will continue in 2013. Pancreatic cancer has become the fourth cause of cancer death in both sexes, while in a few years lung cancer will likely become the first cause of cancer mortality in women as well, overtaking breast cancer.
Total cancer mortality rates in the EU are predicted to fall 7.5% in men and 6% in women between 2009 and 2015. However, due to population aging, total number of cancer deaths will rise to 1 359 100. ...Cancer mortality outlook for 2015 remains favourable, except for pancreas in both sexes and female lung that is predicted to overtake breast becoming the female cancer with the highest rate (14.24/100 000).
Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail.
Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.
A total of 1 359 100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766 200 men and 592 900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100 000 men and 83.9/100 000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35–64, 65–74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100 000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates—though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015.
Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325 000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.
To overcome the lag with which cancer statistics become available, we predicted numbers of deaths and rates from all cancers and selected cancer sites for 2019 in the European Union (EU).
We ...retrieved cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970–2014. We obtained estimates for 2019 with a linear regression on number of deaths over the most recent trend period identified by a logarithmic Poisson joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989–2019.
We estimated about 1 410 000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2019, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 130.9/100 000 men (−5.9% since 2014) and 82.9 women (−3.6%). Lung cancer trends in women are predicted to increase 4.4% between 2014 and 2019, reaching a rate of 14.8. The projected rate for breast cancer was 13.4. Favourable trends for major neoplasms are predicted to continue, except for pancreatic cancer. Trends in breast cancer mortality were favourable in all six countries considered, except Poland. The falls were largest in women 50–69 (−16.4%), i.e. the age group covered by screening, but also seen at age 20–49 (−13.8%), while more modest at age 70–79 (−6.1%). As compared to the peak rate in 1988, over 5 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU over the 1989–2019 period. Of these, 440 000 were breast cancer deaths.
Between 2014 and 2019, cancer mortality will continue to fall in both sexes. Breast cancer rates will fall steadily, with about 35% decline in rates over the last three decades. This is likely due to reduced hormone replacement therapy use, improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatment. Due to population ageing, however, the number of breast cancer deaths is not declining.
We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer.
We ...obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021.
We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (−6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (−4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (−7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (−3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988.
Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.
•We estimated 7% falls in men and 5% in women between 2015 and 2021 in EU total cancer mortality rates.•Almost 5 million avoided cancer deaths are predicted over 1989-2021 in the EU27.•Pancreatic cancer should be a major focus of public health efforts, since no major declines in rates were observed overall.•Lung cancer in women still shows unfavourable trends.•Tobacco control remains a priority for cancer control across Europe.
Current cancer mortality figures are important for disease management and resource allocation. We estimated mortality counts and rates for 2020 in the European Union (EU) and for its six most ...populous countries.
We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970–2015. We estimated projections to 2020 for 10 major cancer sites plus all neoplasms and calculated the number of avoided deaths over 1989–2020.
Total cancer mortality rates in the EU are predicted to decline reaching 130.1/100 000 men (−5.4% since 2015) and 82.2 in women (−4.1%) in 2020. The predicted number of deaths will increase by 4.7% reaching 1 428 800 in 2020. In women, the upward lung cancer trend is predicted to continue with a rate in 2020 of 15.1/100 000 (higher than that for breast cancer, 13.5) while in men we predicted further falls. Pancreatic cancer rates are also increasing in women (+1.2%) but decreasing in men (−1.9%). In the EU, the prostate cancer predicted rate is 10.0/100 000, declining by 7.1% since 2015; decreases for this neoplasm are ∼8% at age 45–64, 14% at 65–74 and 75–84, and 6% at 85 and over. Poland is the only country with an increasing prostate cancer trend (+18%). Mortality rates for other cancers are predicted to decline further. Over 1989–2020, we estimated over 5 million avoided total cancer deaths and over 400 000 for prostate cancer.
Cancer mortality predictions for 2020 in the EU are favourable with a greater decline in men. The number of deaths continue to rise due to population ageing. Due to the persistent amount of predicted lung (and other tobacco-related) cancer deaths, tobacco control remains a public health priority, especially for women. Favourable trends for prostate cancer are largely attributable to continuing therapeutic improvements along with early diagnosis.
•Total cancer mortality rates in the EU declined by 5% in men and 4% in women between 2015 and 2020.•We predicted over 5 million avoided cancer deaths over the period 1989–2020.•Lung and pancreatic cancer rates in women are predicted to increase.•Except for Poland, prostate cancer predicted rates will fall in all age groups due to therapeutic and diagnostic advancements.
Cancer mortality rates, though not absolute numbers of deaths, have been decreasing over the last three decades in Europe.
We estimated projections and the number of avoided deaths for total cancer ...mortality and 10 major cancer sites, between 1989 and 2022, for the European Union (EU), the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain using cancer death certification and population data since 1970 from the World Health Organization and Eurostat.
In the EU, we predict 1 269 200 cancer deaths in 2022; corresponding age-standardized rates (world) fall 6% to 126.9 deaths/100 000 in men and 4% to 80.2/100 000 women since 2017. Male lung cancer is expected to fall 10% reaching 30.9/100 000. The rise in female lung cancer mortality slowed (+2% to 13.8/100 000). We estimated 369 000 (23%) avoided deaths in 2022 alone and a total of 5 394 000 (12%) deaths since the peak rate in 1988. Stomach, colorectal, breast and prostate cancers showed substantial declines, between 5% and 16% over the past 5 years. Pancreatic cancer remained stable in men (8.1/100 000) and rose 3% in women (5.9/100 000), becoming the third cause of cancer mortality in the EU (87 300 deaths), overtaking breast cancer (86 300 deaths). The fall in uterine cancers slowed down (−4%) to 4.7/100 000. Bladder cancer fell 9% in men, but was stable in women. Leukaemias fell more than 10%. Ovarian cancer mortality declined over the past decade in all considered countries. EU predicted rates were 4.3/100 000 (−13%) all ages, 1.2/100 000 (−26%) at 20-49, 15.3/100 000 (−11%) at 50-69 and 32.3/100 000 (−11%) at 70-79 years.
We predicted additional declines in cancer mortality rates for 2022. The slowdown in female lung cancer mortality reflects some levelling of smoking in women. Favourable ovarian cancer trends are likely to continue and are largely attributable to the spreading oral contraceptive use and some impact of improved diagnosis and management.
•We estimate 6% falls in men and 4% in women between 2017 and 2022 in EU total cancer mortality rates.•Nearly 5.4 million (12%) avoided cancer deaths are predicted over 1989-2022 in the EU, with 369 000 (23%) in 2022 alone.•Widespread use of oral contraceptives drove favourable trends in ovarian cancer, particularly in younger Western EU women.•Pancreatic cancer shows no progress and keeps climbing in the cancer death ranking, becoming the third cause of cancer deaths.•The rise in female lung cancer mortality appears to have started slowing down.
We predicted cancer mortality figures in the European Union (EU) for the year 2017 using most recent available data, with a focus on lung cancer.
We retrieved cancer death certification data and ...population figures from the World Health Organisation and Eurostat databases. Age-standardized (world standard population) rates were computed for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the EU overall in 1970–2012. We obtained estimates for 2017 by implementing a joinpoint regression model.
The predicted number of cancer deaths for 2017 in the EU is 1 373 500, compared with 1 333 400 in 2012 (+3%). Cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in both sexes, reaching 131.8/100 000 men (−8.2% when compared with 2012) and 84.5/100 000 women (−3.6%). Mortality rates for all selected cancer sites are predicted to decline, except pancreatic cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women. In men, pancreatic cancer rate is stable, in women it increases by 3.5%. Lung cancer mortality rate in women is predicted to rise to 14.6/100 000 in 2017 (+5.1% since 2012, corresponding to 92 300 predicted deaths), compared with 14.0/100 000 for breast cancer, corresponding to 92 600 predicted deaths. Only younger (25–44) women have favourable lung cancer trends, and rates at this age group are predicted to be similar in women (1.4/100 000) and men (1.2/100 000). In men lung cancer rates are predicted to decline by 10.7% since 2012, and falls are observed in all age groups.
European cancer mortality projections for 2017 confirm the overall downward trend in rates, with a stronger pattern in men. This is mainly due to different smoking prevalence trends in different generations of men and women. Lung cancer rates in young European women are comparable to those in men, confirming that smoking has the same impact on lung cancer in the two sexes.
We projected cancer mortality statistics for 2018 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries, using the most recent available data. We focused on colorectal cancer.
We obtained ...cancer death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, ovary, prostate, bladder, leukaemia, and total cancers from the World Health Organisation database and projected population data from Eurostat. We derived figures for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the EU in 1970–2012. We predicted death numbers by age group and age-standardized (world population) rates for 2018 through joinpoint regression models.
EU total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline by 10.3% in men between 2012 and 2018, reaching a predicted rate of 128.9/100000, and by 5.0% in women with a rate of 83.6. The predicted total number of cancer deaths is 1382000 when compared with 1333362 in 2012 (+3.6%). We confirmed a further fall in male lung cancer, but an unfavourable trend in females, with a rate of 14.7/100000 for 2018 (13.9 in 2012,+5.8%) and 94500 expected deaths, higher than the rate of 13.7 and 92700 deaths from breast cancer. Colorectal cancer predicted rates are 15.8/100000 men (−6.7%) and 9.2 in women (−7.5%); declines are expected in all age groups. Pancreatic cancer is stable in men, but in women it rose+2.8% since 2012. Ovarian, uterine and bladder cancer rates are predicted to decline further. In 2018 alone, about 392300 cancer deaths were avoided compared with peak rates in the late 1980s.
We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and—above age 50years—organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.
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