Purpose
– This paper aims to investigate the performance of estimators of the bid-ask spread in a wide range of circumstances and sampling frequencies. The bid-ask spread is important for many ...reasons. Because spread data are not always available, many methods have been suggested for estimating the spread. Existing papers focus on the performance of the estimators either under ideal conditions or in real data. The gap between ideal conditions and the properties of real data are usually ignored. The consistency of the estimates across various sampling frequencies is also ignored.
Design/methodology/approach
– The estimators and the possible errors are analysed theoretically. Then we perform simulation experiments, reporting the bias, standard deviation and root mean square estimation error of each estimator. More specifically, we assess the effects of the following factors on the performance of the estimators: the magnitude of the spread relative to returns volatility, randomly varying of spreads, the autocorrelation of mid-price returns and mid-price changes caused by trade directions and feedback trading.
Findings
– The best estimates come from using the highest frequency of data available. The relative performance of estimators can vary quite markedly with the sampling frequency. In small samples, the standard deviation can be more important to the estimation error than bias; in large samples, the opposite tends to be true.
Originality/value
– There is a conspicuous lack of simulation evidence on the comparative performance of different estimators of the spread under the less than ideal conditions that are typical of real-world data. This paper aims to fill this gap.
Theory suggests a significant positive relationship in long-run equilibrium between the net foreign assets (NFA) of a country and its real exchange rate. Empirical tests have ignored two issues: the ...large variation in cross-country trade/GDP ratios, which is likely to induce substantial cross-country differences in coefficients when net foreign assets are scaled by GDP, and the reverse causality associated with valuation effects. A real exchange rate appreciation reduces the absolute value of NFA denominated in foreign currency relative to domestic GDP, because of the sizeable component of nontradable goods in domestic GDP. This endogeneity biases the test results. New tests are implemented that address these issues. The valuation effect bias is found to be significant. The new tests nevertheless still support the existence of a long-run positive relationship between NFA and real exchange rates.
The combination of poor institutions and erratic macroeconomic policy, as measured by the volatility of fiscal policy, is associated with slower growth. We show that macroeconomic policy is more ...erratic in countries that are rich in natural resources, especially minerals and fuels, and in those that receive large aid inflows. Poor institutions also play a role. Although Africa is a major receiver of aid and exporter of natural resources, this is not purely an African phenomenon. Output volatility is not associated with slower growth after controlling for institutions and the volatility of fiscal policy.
Specialization in primary product exports reduces growth, but why? Adverse trends in, and the high variance of, primary product prices are possible explanations. The impact on investment and growth ...of the level and volatility of the terms of trade and the real effective exchange rate is estimated for a panel of 14 sub-Saharan African countries over 1980–1995. Growth is negatively affected by terms of trade instability, and investment by real exchange rate instability. Both growth and investment increase when the terms of trade improve and real exchange rate overvaluation is eliminated.
The raw data suggest that the global trend towards greater exchange rate flexibility that was evident before 1990 has since stopped. An optimum currency area (OCA) model of exchange rate regime ...choice is estimated. Four different schemes for classifying exchange rate regime are investigated. Trends in the explanatory variables made little difference to the trend towards greater flexibility before 1990 but have worked against it since, largely because of the reduction in inflation. Underlying preferences are still shifting gradually in the direction of greater flexibility.
Research in both economics and psychology suggests that when agents predict the next value of a random series they frequently exhibit two types of biases, which are called the gambler's fallacy (GF) ...and the hot hand fallacy (HHF). The GF is to expect a negative correlation in a process that is in fact random. The HHF is more or less the opposite of this-to believe that another heads is more likely after a run of heads. The evidence for these fallacies comes largely from situations where they are not punished (lotteries, casinos, and laboratory experiments with random returns). In many real-world situations, such as in financial markets, succumbing to fallacies is costly, which gives an incentive to overcome them. The present study is based on high-frequency data from a market maker in the foreign exchange market. Trading behavior is only partly explained by the rational exploitation of past patterns in the data. There is also evidence of the GF: a tendency to sell the dollar after it has risen persistently or strongly.
Endogenous growth models, such as Barro (1990), predict that government expenditure and taxation will have both temporary and permanent effects on growth. We test this prediction using panels of ...annual and period-averaged data for OECD countries during 1970-95, isolating long-run from short-run fiscal effects. Our results strongly support the endogenous growth model and suggest that long-run fiscal effects are not fully captured by period averaging and static panel methods. Unlike previous investigations, our estimates are free from biases associated with incomplete specification of the government budget constraint and do not appear to result from endogeneity of fiscal or investment variables. JEL Classification: H30, O40 /// Validation du modèle de croissance endogène: dépenses publiques, fiscalité et croissance à long terme. Des modèles de croissance endogène comme celui de Barro (1990) prédisent que dépenses gouvernementales et fiscalité vont avoir des effets temporaires et permanents sur la croissance. On met cette prévision au test à l'aide de données annuelles et pour certaines moyennes couvrant des sous-périodes pour les pays de l'OCDE (1970-95) dans le but de départager les effets à court et à long terme. Les résultats valident fortement le modèle de croissance endogène et suggèrent que les effets fiscaux à long terme ne sont pas pleinement capturés par des méthodes utilisant des moyennes ou des méthodes statiques. Contrairement aux résultats d'enquêtes antérieures, les résultats proposés ne souffrent pas de distorsions attribuables à une spécification incomplète de la contrainte budgétaire du gouvernement, et ne semblent pas être l'effet d'écho de l'endogénéité des variables fiscales et de l'investissement.
We use new data on the timing of the transition to agriculture, developed by
Putterman and Trainor (2006), to test the theory of
Diamond (1997) and
Olsson and Hibbs (2005) that an earlier transition ...is reflected in higher incomes today. Our results confirm the theory, even after controlling for institutional quality and other geographical factors. The date of transition is correlated with prehistoric biogeography (the availability of wild grasses and large domesticable animal species). The factors conducive to high per capita incomes today are good institutions, an early transition to agriculture, access to the sea and a low incidence of fatal malaria. Geographical influences have been at work in all of these proximate determinants of per capita income.
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