Predator-prey interactions are vital to the stability of many ecosystems 1. Yet, few studies have considered how they are mediated due to substantial challenges in quantifying behavior over ...appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Here, we employ high-resolution sonar imaging to track the motion and interactions among predatory fish and their schooling prey in a natural environment. In particular, we address the relationship between predator attack behavior and the capacity for prey to respond both directly and through collective propagation of changes in velocity by group members 2–6. To do so, we investigated a large number of attacks and estimated per capita risk during attack and its relation to the size, shape, and internal structure of prey groups. Predators were found to frequently form coordinated hunting groups, with up to five individuals attacking in line formation. Attacks were associated with increased fragmentation and irregularities in the spatial structure of prey groups, features that inhibit collective information transfer among prey. Prey group fragmentation, likely facilitated by predator line formation, increased (estimated) per capita risk of prey, provided prey schools were maintained below a threshold size of approximately 2 m2. Our results highlight the importance of collective behavior to the strategies employed by both predators and prey under conditions of considerable informational constraints.
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► We develop a new sonar technique to track fine-scale predator-prey interactions ► We quantify information transfer and collective response in the field ► Predation is associated with reduced information transfer in prey schools
•the rapid rise and decline of admissions and decreased severity of COVID-19 disease•compares 466 patients in the Omicron wave to 3962 patients in previous waves•describes disease severity of all ...admitted patients at peak bed occupancy•a lower mortality rate from Omicron compared to previous waves
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) first reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019 is a global pandemic that is threatening the health and wellbeing of people worldwide. To date there have been more than 274 million reported cases and 5.3 million deaths. The Omicron variant first documented in the City of Tshwane, Gauteng Province, South Africa on 9 November 2021 led to exponential increases in cases and a sharp rise in hospital admissions. The clinical profile of patients admitted at a large hospital in Tshwane is compared with previous waves.
466 hospital COVID-19 admissions since 14 November 2021 were compared to 3962 admissions since 4 May 2020, prior to the Omicron outbreak. Ninety-eight patient records at peak bed occupancy during the outbreak were reviewed for primary indication for admission, clinical severity, oxygen supplementation level, vaccination and prior COVID-19 infection. Provincial and city-wide daily cases and reported deaths, hospital admissions and excess deaths data were sourced from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, the National Department of Health and the South African Medical Research Council.
For the Omicron and previous waves, deaths and ICU admissions were 4.5% vs 21.3% (p<0.00001), and 1% vs 4.3% (p<0.00001) respectively; length of stay was 4.0 days vs 8.8 days; and mean age was 39 years vs 49,8 years.
Admissions in the Omicron wave peaked and declined rapidly with peak bed occupancy at 51% of the highest previous peak during the Delta wave.
Sixty two (63%) patients in COVID-19 wards had incidental COVID-19 following a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test . Only one third (36) had COVID-19 pneumonia, of which 72% had mild to moderate disease. The remaining 28% required high care or ICU admission. Fewer than half (45%) of patients in COVID-19 wards required oxygen supplementation compared to 99.5% in the first wave. The death rate in the face of an exponential increase in cases during the Omicron wave at the city and provincial levels shows a decoupling of cases and deaths
compared to previous waves, corroborating the clinical findings of decreased severity of disease seen in patients admitted to the Steve Biko Academic Hospital.
There was decreased severity of COVID-19 disease in the Omicron-driven fourth wave in the City of Tshwane, its first global epicentre.
The knee adduction moment (KAM) can inform treatment of medial knee osteoarthritis; however, measuring the KAM requires an expensive gait analysis laboratory. We evaluated the feasibility of ...predicting the peak KAM during natural and modified walking patterns using the positions of anatomical landmarks that could be identified from video analysis.
Using inverse dynamics, we calculated the KAM for 86 individuals (64 with knee osteoarthritis, 22 without) walking naturally and with foot progression angle modifications. We trained a neural network to predict the peak KAM using the 3-dimensional positions of 13 anatomical landmarks measured with motion capture (3D neural network). We also trained models to predict the peak KAM using 2-dimensional subsets of the dataset to simulate 2-dimensional video analysis (frontal and sagittal plane neural networks). Model performance was evaluated on a held-out, 8-person test set that included steps from all trials.
The 3D neural network predicted the peak KAM for all test steps with r2( Murray et al., 2012) 2 = 0.78. This model predicted individuals’ average peak KAM during natural walking with r2( Murray et al., 2012) 2 = 0.86 and classified which 15° foot progression angle modifications reduced the peak KAM with accuracy = 0.85. The frontal plane neural network predicted peak KAM with similar accuracy (r2( Murray et al., 2012) 2 = 0.85) to the 3D neural network, but the sagittal plane neural network did not (r2( Murray et al., 2012) 2 = 0.14).
Using the positions of anatomical landmarks from motion capture, a neural network accurately predicted the peak KAM during natural and modified walking. This study demonstrates the feasibility of measuring the peak KAM using positions obtainable from 2D video analysis.
Lateralization is widespread throughout the animal kingdom 1–7 and can increase task efficiency via shortening reaction times and saving on neural tissue 8–16. However, lateralization might be costly ...because it increases predictability 17–21. In predator-prey interactions, for example, predators might increase capture success because of specialization in a lateralized attack, but at the cost of increased predictability to their prey, constraining the evolution of lateralization. One unexplored mechanism for evading such costs is group hunting: this would allow individual-level specialization, while still allowing for group-level unpredictability. We investigated this mechanism in group hunting sailfish, Istiophorus platypterus, attacking schooling sardines, Sardinella aurita. During these attacks, sailfish alternate in attacking the prey using their elongated bills to slash or tap the prey 22–24. This rapid bill movement is either leftward or rightward. Using behavioral observations of identifiable individual sailfish hunting in groups, we provide evidence for individual-level attack lateralization in sailfish. More strongly lateralized individuals had a higher capture success. Further evidence of lateralization comes from morphological analyses of sailfish bills that show strong evidence of one-sided micro-teeth abrasions. Finally, we show that attacks by single sailfish are indeed highly predictable, but predictability rapidly declines with increasing group size because of a lack of population-level lateralization. Our results present a novel benefit of group hunting: by alternating attacks, individual-level attack lateralization can evolve, without the negative consequences of individual-level predictability. More generally, our results suggest that group hunting in predators might provide more suitable conditions for the evolution of strategy diversity compared to solitary life.
•Sailfish show individual-level attack lateralization when attacking their prey•More strongly lateralized individuals had a higher capture success•Sailfish bills showed one-sided teeth abrasions•Predictability of attack direction decreased with increasing sailfish group size
Kurvers et al. discovered that sailfish show individual-level attack lateralization when attacking schooling prey. More strongly lateralized sailfish had a higher capture success. Whereas single sailfish are highly predictable to their prey due to attack lateralization, groups are highly unpredictable, identifying a novel benefit of group hunting.
With the increasing warming of the Arctic, the summertime ice-free period in the coastal Arctic becomes longer and the water exchange between arctic lagoons and coastal Beaufort Sea becomes more ...important for land–ocean interaction. This study examined the dynamics of water exchange between the arctic lagoons and the Arctic Ocean under the influence of weather systems (the transient arctic cyclones and hovering Beaufort High pressure system). We implemented rare observations, numerical modeling with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), and a forcing-response Empirical Orthogonal Function (fr-EOF) analysis to determine the weather-driven flow patterns and characteristics in the micro-tidal arctic lagoon (Elson Lagoon) with little freshwater discharge. The results were validated for both tidal and subtidal currents with in situ data. The inlets of the lagoon were significantly impacted by wind associated with the weather systems and the flows through the inlets were highly correlated with each other. The fr-EOF analysis for the 1.5-month FVCOM output indicated three significant modes of wind-driven flow. In the deepest (~16 m) northwestern-most inlet, a counter-wind flow occurred more than 96% of the time due to setup and set down of water level inside the lagoon and the vorticity balance related to the wind stress and water depth. For about 60–80% of the time, the exchange flow was out of the lagoon through the northwestern-most and deepest inlet due to the strong easterly winds dictated by the Beaufort High; this dominant flow is mainly caused by the persistent easterly wind as a limb of the Beaufort High pressure system, modified by the transient arctic cyclones with a westerly wind and inward flows at the westernmost inlet of Elson Lagoon. This study shows that the alternating influence from the cyclone-anticyclone weather systems produces a meteorological tide in the subtidal spectrum which dominates the water exchange in the region through the multiple inlets. With the observed increase in cyclone strength and frequency under the warming trend, this may imply a greater contribution from the westerly wind because of the increased cyclonic activities. If this is the case, the inward flow might increase and have an effect on sediment, larval, and nutrient transports through this system.
Coastal fish communities are under increasing levels of stress associated with climate variation and anthropogenic activities. However, the high degree of behavioral plasticity of many species within ...these communities allow them to cope with altered environmental conditions to some extent. Here, we combine meteorological information, data from hydroacoustic surveys, and recordings of goliath grouper sound production to examine the response of coastal fish communities to heavy rainfall events in South Florida, USA, that resulted in the release of excess storm water into surrounding estuaries and coastal waters. We observed a nearly 12,000% increase in water column acoustic backscatter following a heavy rainfall event of September 16th, 2015. Interestingly, estimates of school backscatter, a proxy for biomass, increased by 172% with the onset of the perturbation. Schooling fish density also increased by 182%, as did acoustically derived estimates of mean schooling fish length (21%). Following the perturbed period, school backscatter decreased by 406%, along with schooling density (272%), and mean schooling fish length (35%). Hydrophone and hydroacoustic data also revealed that goliath grouper (
) spawning aggregations were persistent in the region throughout the duration of the study and continued to exhibit courtship behavior during the perturbed period. Our observations demonstrate the high level of resistance common in coastal species but raises new questions regarding the threshold at which fish communities and reproductive activities are disrupted. As coastal land use continues to increase, and the effects of global climate change become more pronounced, more Before-After Control Impact (BACI) studies will provide improved insight into the overall response of nearshore communities to future perturbations and the cumulative effect of repeated perturbations over extended periods.
Infectious diseases pandemics have devastating health, social and economic consequences, especially in developing countries such as South Africa. Scarce medical resources must often be rationed ...effectively to contain the disease outbreak. In the case of COVID-19, even the best-resourced countries will have inadequate intensive care facilities for the large number of patients needing admission and ventilation. The scarcity of medical resources creates the need for national governments to establish admission criteria that are evidence-based and fair. Questions have been raised whether infection with HIV or tuberculosis (TB) may amplify the risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes and therefore whether these conditions should be factored in when deciding on the rationing of intensive care facilities. In light of these questions, clinical evidence regarding inclusion of these infections as comorbidities relevant to intensive care unit admission triage criteria is investigated in the first of a two-part series of articles. There is currently no evidence to indicate that HIV or TB infection on their own predispose to an increased risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 or worse outcomes for COVID-19. It is recommended that, as for other medical conditions, validated scoring systems for poor prognostic factors should be applied. A subsequent article examines the ethicolegal implications of limiting intensive care access of persons living with HIV or TB.
The Arctic nearshore surrounding Point Barrow, Alaska, is a dynamic system with complex oceanographic and meteorological processes that drive community composition to change rapidly in space and ...time. Nearshore fish and zooplankton communities were sampled in the summers of 2013–2015. Spatial, temporal, environmental, and biological drivers of fish community structure in the Arctic nearshore surrounding Point Barrow were investigated using multivariate canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). A CCA model using the 13 most explanatory variables (three environmental, one spatial, four temporal, and five zooplankton abundances) explained 73% of the variance in community structure in this region. Distinct fish communities were identified within the three waterbodies that were studied (Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, and Elson Lagoon), and these distinctions were largely driven by salinity. Species move into the nearshore at various times after landfast ice breaks up, creating an annual succession of species that can be found in these nearshore habitats. Low-latitude species tend to become abundant later in the summer season, whereas true Arctic species are present under the ice or move in shortly after breakup. Arctic species are also more abundant in colder years, whereas low-latitude species dominate during warmer years. The increasing abundance of low-latitude species in the Arctic nearshore may have serious implications for the food webs in these ecosystems as climate change continues.
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