Summary Background Mortality in people in Africa with HIV infection starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is high, particularly in those with advanced disease. We assessed the effect of a short ...period of community support to supplement clinic-based services combined with serum cryptococcal antigen screening. Methods We did an open-label, randomised controlled trial in six urban clinics in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Lusaka, Zambia. From February, 2012, we enrolled eligible individuals with HIV infection (age ≥18 years, CD4 count of <200 cells per μL, ART naive) and randomly assigned them to either the standard clinic-based care supplemented with community support or standard clinic-based care alone, stratified by country and clinic, in permuted block sizes of ten. Clinic plus community support consisted of screening for serum cryptococcal antigen combined with antifungal therapy for patients testing antigen positive, weekly home visits for the first 4 weeks on ART by lay workers to provide support, and in Tanzania alone, re-screening for tuberculosis at 6–8 weeks after ART initiation. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 12 months, analysed by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry, number ISCRTN 20410413. Findings Between Feb 9, 2012, and Sept 30, 2013, 1001 patients were randomly assigned to clinic plus community support and 998 to standard care. 89 (9%) of 1001 participants in the clinic plus community support group did not receive their assigned intervention, and 11 (1%) of 998 participants in the standard care group received a home visit or a cryptococcal antigen screen rather than only standard care. At 12 months, 25 (2%) of 1001 participants in the clinic plus community support group and 24 (2%) of 998 participants in the standard care group had been lost to follow-up, and were censored at their last visit for the primary analysis. At 12 months, 134 (13%) of 1001 participants in the clinic plus community support group had died compared with 180 (18%) of 998 in the standard care group. Mortality was 28% (95% CI 10–43) lower in the clinic plus community support group than in standard care group (p=0·004). Interpretation Screening and pre-emptive treatment for cryptococcal infection combined with a short initial period of adherence support after initiation of ART could substantially reduce mortality in HIV programmes in Africa. Funding European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership.
Summary Background The prevalence of epilepsy in sub-Saharan Africa seems to be higher than in other parts of the world, but estimates vary substantially for unknown reasons. We assessed the ...prevalence and risk factors of active convulsive epilepsy across five centres in this region. Methods We did large population-based cross-sectional and case-control studies in five Health and Demographic Surveillance System centres: Kilifi, Kenya (Dec 3, 2007–July 31, 2008); Agincourt, South Africa (Aug 4, 2008–Feb 27, 2009); Iganga-Mayuge, Uganda (Feb 2, 2009–Oct 30, 2009); Ifakara, Tanzania (May 4, 2009–Dec 31, 2009); and Kintampo, Ghana (Aug 2, 2010–April 29, 2011). We used a three-stage screening process to identify people with active convulsive epilepsy. Prevalence was estimated as the ratio of confirmed cases to the population screened and was adjusted for sensitivity and attrition between stages. For each case, an age-matched control individual was randomly selected from the relevant centre's census database. Fieldworkers masked to the status of the person they were interviewing administered questionnaires to individuals with active convulsive epilepsy and control individuals to assess sociodemographic variables and historical risk factors (perinatal events, head injuries, and diet). Blood samples were taken from a randomly selected subgroup of 300 participants with epilepsy and 300 control individuals from each centre and were screened for antibodies to Toxocara canis, Toxoplasma gondii, Onchocerca volvulus, Plasmodium falciparum, Taenia solium , and HIV. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) with logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, education, employment, and marital status. Results 586 607 residents in the study areas were screened in stage one, of whom 1711 were diagnosed as having active convulsive epilepsy. Prevalence adjusted for attrition and sensitivity varied between sites: 7·8 per 1000 people (95% CI 7·5–8·2) in Kilifi, 7·0 (6·2–7·4) in Agincourt, 10·3 (9·5–11·1) in Iganga-Mayuge, 14·8 (13·8–15·4) in Ifakara, and 10·1 (9·5–10·7) in Kintampo. The 1711 individuals with the disorder and 2032 control individuals were given questionnaires. In children (aged <18 years), the greatest relative increases in prevalence were associated with difficulties feeding, crying, or breathing after birth (OR 10·23, 95% CI 5·85–17·88; p<0·0001); abnormal antenatal periods (2·15, 1·53–3·02; p<0·0001); and head injury (1·97, 1·28–3·03; p=0·002). In adults (aged ≥18 years), the disorder was significantly associated with admission to hospital with malaria or fever (2·28, 1·06–4·92; p=0·036), exposure to T canis (1·74, 1·27–2·40; p=0·0006), exposure to T gondii (1·39, 1·05–1·84; p=0·021), and exposure to O volvulus (2·23, 1·56–3·19; p<0·0001). Hypertension (2·13, 1·08–4·20; p=0·029) and exposure to T solium (7·03, 2·06–24·00; p=0·002) were risk factors for adult-onset disease. Interpretation The prevalence of active convulsive epilepsy varies in sub-Saharan Africa and that the variation is probably a result of differences in risk factors. Programmes to control parasitic diseases and interventions to improve antenatal and perinatal care could substantially reduce the prevalence of epilepsy in this region. Funding Wellcome Trust, University of the Witwatersrand, and South African Medical Research Council.
Summary Background House screening should protect people against malaria. We assessed whether two types of house screening—full screening of windows, doors, and closing eaves, or installation of ...screened ceilings—could reduce house entry of malaria vectors and frequency of anaemia in children in an area of seasonal malaria transmission. Methods During 2006 and 2007, 500 occupied houses in and near Farafenni town in The Gambia, an area with low use of insecticide-treated bednets, were randomly assigned to receive full screening, screened ceilings, or no screening (control). Randomisation was done by computer-generated list, in permuted blocks of five houses in the ratio 2:2:1. Screening was not treated with insecticide. Exposure to mosquitoes indoors was assessed by fortnightly light trap collections during the transmission season. Primary endpoints included the number of female Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes collected per trap per night. Secondary endpoints included frequency of anaemia (haemoglobin concentration <80 g/L) and parasitaemia at the end of the transmission season in children (aged 6 months to 10 years) who were living in the study houses. Analysis was by modified intention to treat (ITT), including all randomised houses for which there were some outcome data and all children from those houses who were sampled for haemoglobin and parasitaemia. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN51184253. Findings 462 houses were included in the modified ITT analysis (full screening, n=188; screened ceilings, n=178; control, n=96). The mean number of A gambiae caught in houses without screening was 37·5 per trap per night (95% CI 31·6–43·3), compared with 15·2 (12·9–17·4) in houses with full screening (ratio of means 0·41, 95% CI 0·31–0·54; p<0·0001) and 19·1 (16·1–22·1) in houses with screened ceilings (ratio 0·53, 0·40–0·70; p<0·0001). 755 children completed the study, of whom 731 had complete clinical and covariate data and were used in the analysis of clinical outcomes. 30 (19%) of 158 children from control houses had anaemia, compared with 38 (12%) of 309 from houses with full screening (adjusted odds ratio OR 0·53, 95% CI 0·29–0·97; p=0·04), and 31 (12%) of 264 from houses with screened ceilings (OR 0·51, 0·27–0·96; p=0·04). Frequency of parasitaemia did not differ between intervention and control groups. Interpretation House screening substantially reduced the number of mosquitoes inside houses and could contribute to prevention of anaemia in children. Funding Medical Research Council.
Summary Background Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are used in many low-income countries but their impact on the incidence of pneumonia is unclear. The Gambia introduced PCV7 in August, 2009, ...and PCV13 in May, 2011. We aimed to measure the impact of the introduction of these vaccines on pneumonia incidence. Methods We did population-based surveillance and case-control studies. The primary endpoint was WHO-defined radiological pneumonia with pulmonary consolidation. Population-based surveillance was for suspected pneumonia in children aged 2–59 months (minimum age 3 months in the case-control study) between May 12, 2008, and Dec 31, 2015. Surveillance for the impact study was limited to the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS), whereas surveillance for the case-control study included both the BHDSS and Fuladu West Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Nurses screened all outpatients and inpatients at all health facilities in the surveillance area using standardised criteria for referral to clinicians in Basse and Bansang. These clinicians recorded clinical findings and applied standardised criteria to identify patients with suspected pneumonia. We compared the incidence of pneumonia during the baseline period (May 12, 2008, to May 11, 2010) and the PCV13 period (Jan 1, 2014, to Dec 31, 2015). We also investigated the effectiveness of PCV13 using case-control methods between Sept 12, 2011, and Sept 31, 2014. Controls were aged 90 days or older, and were eligible to have received at least one dose of PCV13; cases had the same eligibility criteria with the addition of having WHO-defined radiological pneumonia. Findings We investigated 18 833 children with clinical pneumonia and identified 2156 cases of radiological pneumonia. Among children aged 2–11 months, the incidence of radiological pneumonia fell from 21·0 cases per 1000 person-years in the baseline period to 16·2 cases per 1000 person-years (23% decline, 95% CI 7–36) in 2014–15. In the 12–23 month age group, radiological pneumonia decreased from 15·3 to 10·9 cases per 1000 person-years (29% decline, 12–42). In children aged 2–4 years, incidence fell from 5·2 to 4·1 cases per 1000 person-years (22% decline, 1–39). Incidence of all clinical pneumonia increased by 4% (–1 to 8), but hospitalised cases declined by 8% (3–13). Pneumococcal pneumonia declined from 2·9 to 1·2 cases per 1000 person-years (58% decline, 22–77) in children aged 2–11 months and from 2·6 to 0·7 cases per 1000 person-years (75% decline, 47–88) in children aged 12–23 months. Hypoxic pneumonia fell from 13·1 to 5·7 cases per 1000 person-years (57% decline, 42–67) in children aged 2–11 months and from 6·8 to 1·9 cases per 1000 person-years (72% decline, 58–82) in children aged 12–23 months. In the case-control study, the best estimate of the effectiveness of three doses of PCV13 against radiological pneumonia was an adjusted odds ratio of 0·57 (0·30–1·08) in children aged 3–11 months and vaccine effectiveness increased with greater numbers of doses (p=0·026). The analysis in children aged 12 months and older was underpowered because there were few unvaccinated cases and controls. Interpretation The introduction of PCV in The Gambia was associated with a moderate impact on the incidence of radiological pneumonia, a small reduction in cases of hospitalised pneumonia, and substantial reductions of pneumococcal and hypoxic pneumonia in young children. Low-income countries that introduce PCV13 with reasonable coverage can expect modest reductions in hospitalised cases of pneumonia and a marked impact on the incidence of severe childhood pneumonia. Funding GAVI's Pneumococcal vaccines Accelerated Development and Introduction Plan, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.
Health workers' strikes are a global occurrence. Kenya has had several strikes by health workers in recent years but their effect on mortality is unknown. We assessed the effect on mortality of six ...strikes by health workers that occurred from 2010 to 2016 in Kilifi, Kenya.
Using daily mortality data obtained from the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, we fitted a negative binomial regression model to estimate the change in mortality during strike periods and in the 2 weeks immediately after strikes. We did subgroup analyses by age, cause of death, and strike week.
Between Jan 1, 2010, and Nov 30, 2016, we recorded 1 829 929 person-years of observation, 6396 deaths, and 128 strike days (median duration of strikes, 18·5 days range 9–42). In the primary analysis, no change in all-cause mortality was noted during strike periods (adjusted rate ratio RR 0·93, 95% CI 0·81–1·08; p=0·34). Weak evidence was recorded of variation in mortality rates by age group, with an apparent decrease among infants aged 1–11 months (adjusted RR 0·58, 95% CI 0·33–1·03; p=0·064) and an increase among children aged 12–59 months (1·75, 1·11–2·76; p=0·016). No change was noted in mortality rates in post-strike periods and for any category of cause of death.
The brief strikes by health workers during the period 2010–16 were not associated with obvious changes in overall mortality in Kilifi. The combined effects of private (and some public) health care during strike periods, a high proportion of out-of-hospital deaths, and a low number of events might have led us to underestimate the effect.
Wellcome Trust and MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group.
Purpose Our aim is to examine which risk factors have a greater impact in women than in men on the risk of major depressive disorder (MDD) and whether factors differ between a possible recurrent MDD ...and a first onset of MDD. Methods Prospective cohort study of general practice attendees in seven countries, who were followed up at 6 and 12 months (predictD). Absolute risk differences (interaction contrast) across sex for onset of DSM-IV MDD after 6 or 12 months of follow-up were estimated for 35 risk factors from 7101 participants without MDD at baseline. Results A total of 599 participants (80% female) had an onset of MDD at 6 or 12 months. Most risk factors had a greater impact in women than in men on the risk of MDD and were not restricted to a specific class of risk factors. After we stratified for a history of depressive symptoms, we found that the impact of risk factors across sex was generally stronger on possible recurrent MDD than on a first onset of MDD. Conclusions Our findings may partly account for the observed difference in incidence of MDD between men and women.
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) are highly protective against invasive pneumococcal disease caused by vaccine serotypes, but the burden of pneumococcal disease in low-income and middle-income ...countries is dominated by pneumonia, most of which is non-bacteraemic. We examined the effect of 10-valent PCV on the incidence of pneumonia in Kenya.
We linked prospective hospital surveillance for clinically-defined WHO severe or very severe pneumonia at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, from 2002 to 2015, to population surveillance at Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, comprising 45 000 children younger than 5 years. Chest radiographs were read according to a WHO standard. A 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in Kenya in January, 2011. In Kilifi, there was a three-dose catch-up campaign for infants (aged <1 year) and a two-dose catch-up campaign for children aged 1–4 years, between January and March, 2011. We estimated the effect of PCV10 on the incidence of clinically-defined and radiologically-confirmed pneumonia through interrupted time-series analysis, accounting for seasonal and temporal trends.
Between May 1, 2002 and March 31, 2015, 44 771 children aged 2–143 months were admitted to Kilifi County Hospital. We excluded 810 admissions between January and March, 2011, and 182 admissions during nurses' strikes. In 2002–03, the incidence of admission with clinically-defined pneumonia was 2170 per 100 000 in children aged 2–59 months. By the end of the catch-up campaign in 2011, 4997 (61·1%) of 8181 children aged 2–11 months had received at least two doses of PCV10 and 23 298 (62·3%) of 37 416 children aged 12–59 months had received at least one dose. Across the 13 years of surveillance, the incidence of clinically-defined pneumonia declined by 0·5% per month, independent of vaccine introduction. There was no secular trend in the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia over 8 years of study. After adjustment for secular trend and season, incidence rate ratios for admission with radiologically-confirmed pneumonia, clinically-defined pneumonia, and diarrhoea (control condition), associated temporally with PCV10 introduction and the catch-up campaign, were 0·52 (95% CI 0·32–0·86), 0·73 (0·54–0·97), and 0·63 (0·31–1·26), respectively. Immediately before PCV10 was introduced, the annual incidence of clinically-defined pneumonia was 1220 per 100 000; this value was reduced by 329 per 100 000 at the point of PCV10 introduction.
Over 13 years, admissions to Kilifi County Hospital for clinically-defined pneumonia decreased sharply (by 27%) in association with the introduction of PCV10, as did the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia (by 48%). The burden of hospital admissions for childhood pneumonia in Kilifi, Kenya, has been reduced substantially by the introduction of PCV10.
Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance and Wellcome Trust.
Summary Background Temozolomide chemotherapy versus radiotherapy in patients with a high-risk low-grade glioma has been shown to have no significant effect on progression-free survival. If these ...treatments have a different effect on health-related quality of life (HRQOL), it might affect the choice of therapy. We postulated that temozolomide compromises HRQOL and global cognitive functioning to a lesser extent than does radiotherapy. Methods We did a prospective, phase 3, randomised controlled trial at 78 medical centres and large hospitals in 19 countries. We enrolled adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with histologically confirmed diffuse (WHO grade II) astrocytoma, oligodendroglioma, or mixed oligoastrocytoma, with a WHO performance status of 2 or lower, without previous chemotherapy or radiotherapy, who needed active treatment other than surgery. We randomly assigned eligible patients (1:1) using a minimisation technique, stratified by WHO performance status (0–1 vs 2), age (<40 years vs ≥40 years), presence of contrast enhancement on MRI, chromosome 1p status (deleted vs non-deleted vs indeterminate), and the treating medical centre, to receive either radiotherapy (50·4 Gy in 28 fractions of 1·8 Gy for 5 days per week up to 6·5 weeks) or temozolomide chemotherapy (75 mg/m2 daily, for 21 of 28 days one cycle for 12 cycles). The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (results published separately); here, we report the results for two key secondary endpoints: HRQOL (assessed using the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer’s EORTC QLQ-C30 version 3 and the EORTC Brain Cancer Module QLQ-BN20) and global cognitive functioning (assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination MMSE). We did analyses on the intention-to-treat population. This study is closed and is registered at EudraCT, number 2004-002714-11, and at ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT00182819. Findings Between Dec 6, 2005, and Dec 21, 2012, we randomly assigned 477 eligible patients to either radiotherapy (n=240) or temozolomide chemotherapy (n=237). The difference in HRQOL between the two treatment groups was not significant during the 36 months’ follow-up (mean between group difference averaged over all timepoints 0·06, 95% CI −4·64 to 4·75, p=0·98). At baseline, 32 (13%) of 239 patients who received radiotherapy and 32 (14%) of 236 patients who received temozolomide chemotherapy had impaired cognitive function, according to the MMSE scores. After randomisation, five (8%) of 63 patients who received radiotherapy and three (6%) of 54 patients who received temozolomide chemotherapy and who could be followed up for 36 months had impaired cognitive function, according to the MMSE scores. No significant difference was recorded between the groups for the change in MMSE scores during the 36 months of follow-up. Interpretation The effect of temozolomide chemotherapy or radiotherapy on HRQOL or global cognitive functioning did not differ in patients with low-grade glioma. These results do not support the choice of temozolomide alone over radiotherapy alone in patients with high-risk low-grade glioma. Funding Merck Sharp & Dohme-Merck & Co, National Cancer Institute, Swiss Cancer League, National Institute for Health Research, Cancer Research UK, Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute, National Health and Medical Research Council, European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Cancer Research Fund.
Identification of convulsive epilepsy in sub-Saharan Africa relies on access to resources that are often unavailable. Infrastructure and resource requirements can further complicate case ...verification. Using machine-learning techniques, we have developed and tested a region-specific questionnaire panel and predictive model to identify people who have had a convulsive seizure. These findings have been implemented into a free app for health-care workers in Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Tanzania, and South Africa.
In this retrospective case-control study, we used data from the Studies of the Epidemiology of Epilepsy in Demographic Sites in Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Tanzania, and South Africa. We randomly split these individuals using a 7:3 ratio into a training dataset and a validation dataset. We used information gain and correlation-based feature selection to identify eight binary features to predict convulsive seizures. We then assessed several machine-learning algorithms to create a multivariate prediction model. We validated the best-performing model with the internal dataset and a prospectively collected external-validation dataset. We additionally evaluated a leave-one-site-out model (LOSO), in which the model was trained on data from all sites except one that, in turn, formed the validation dataset. We used these features to develop a questionnaire-based predictive panel that we implemented into a multilingual app (the Epilepsy Diagnostic Companion) for health-care workers in each geographical region.
We analysed epilepsy-specific data from 4097 people, of whom 1985 (48·5%) had convulsive epilepsy, and 2112 were controls. From 170 clinical variables, we initially identified 20 candidate predictor features. Eight features were removed, six because of negligible information gain and two following review by a panel of qualified neurologists. Correlation-based feature selection identified eight variables that demonstrated predictive value; all were associated with an increased risk of an epileptic convulsion except one. The logistic regression, support vector, and naive Bayes models performed similarly, outperforming the decision-tree model. We chose the logistic regression model for its interpretability and implementability. The area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) was 0·92 (95% CI 0·91–0·94, sensitivity 85·0%, specificity 93·7%) in the internal-validation dataset and 0·95 (0·92–0·98, sensitivity 97·5%, specificity 82·4%) in the external-validation dataset. Similar results were observed for the LOSO model (AUC 0·94, 0·93–0·96, sensitivity 88·2%, specificity 95·3%).
On the basis of these findings, we developed the Epilepsy Diagnostic Companion as a predictive model and app offering a validated culture-specific and region-specific solution to confirm the diagnosis of a convulsive epileptic seizure in people with suspected epilepsy. The questionnaire panel is simple and accessible for health-care workers without specialist knowledge to administer. This tool can be iteratively updated and could lead to earlier, more accurate diagnosis of seizures and improve care for people with epilepsy.
The Wellcome Trust, the UK National Institute of Health Research, and the Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre.
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